Digital Commons Network^™

Crowding In Private Capital For Climate Adaptation In India, Shreya Bajaj

Master in Public Policy Theses

Reports show that India is highly vulnerable to climate change. Mitigation efforts alone cannot address these risks, and adaptation remains essential. Yet while much of the existing literature documents the adaptation finance gap, it offers less practical guidance on where private capital can realistically be used and what institutional arrangements are needed to make it work. This paper tries to address that gap in the Indian context.

This paper examines three adaptation finance use cases through which private capital could support climate adaptation and resilience in India: parametric disaster risk transfer, pooled municipal finance, and water fund. For each issue, …

A Just Reimagining Of The Loss & Damage Fund, Sarah Cheung

Master in Public Policy Theses

The Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), established at COP28 in 2023, represents a historic diplomatic breakthrough in multilateral climate finance, yet its design reflects the compromises necessary to secure political agreement rather than a just institutional architecture. This thesis evaluates the FRLD and two prominent reform proposals—the Bridgetown Initiative 3.0 and Esther Duflo's Grand Bargain—against a novel framework that provides a more precise way to evaluate the “justness” of different arrangements. This framework encompasses three dimensions: compensatory, distributive, and procedural justice. [JS1] A dimension of justice is achieved in a two-fold manner; first, through rhetorical commitments in …

The Offense-Defense Balance And The Modern System In Ukraine, Daniel Hogestyn

Master in Public Policy Theses

This thesis evaluates whether the Russo Ukrainian war represents a revolution in military affairs (RMA) by testing Stephen Biddle’s "modern system" theory of battlefield outcomes against recent combat operations. Applying Biddle’s formal model to the 2023 Ukrainian offensive in Zaporizhia, the thesis finds that the offensive's failure conforms closely to Biddle’s causal logic, with force employment variables drawn from 20th century combat sufficient to account for the outcome. Biddle's model in military power argues that force employment has explained victory and defeat since World War I, rather than technology or numerical preponderance alone. Many commentators claim that proliferation of small …

Stablecoins, Geopolitical Shocks, And Imperfect Arbitrage: A Case Study Of Türkiye, Vincient Arnold

Master in Public Policy Theses

On March 19, 2025, a key Turkish opposition political figure was unexpectedly arrested on what were presumed to be politically motivated charges. In response, the lira depreciated sharply. Meanwhile, Türkiye has a large and active dollar stablecoin market. Using a time series dataset of trade-frequency Tether vs. lira trading, I exploit this natural exogenous geopolitical risk-off event to investigate the response function of stablecoin traders active in Türkiye to this shock. I find that the shock is associated with a large (5.33% ) abnormal depreciation of the lira. Further, I show that the shock is associated with an abnormal widening …

A Rarer Earth: The Many States Of Peat In Central Kalimantan, Layna Chen Ms.

Masters of Environmental Design Theses

Peat currently occupies a central place within climate discourse, with Indonesia’s peatlands as a key site of concern since the late twentieth century. Yet this contemporary understanding is historically unstable. Over the last two centuries, what we commonly consider peat has been repeatedly redefined by scientific and bureaucratic institutions. Within popular media, peat has circulated as a low-grade fuel, an infertile swampland, an agricultural soil awaiting rehabilitation, and a hydrological body requiring remediation. Tropical peatland fires, once treated as a scientific improbability, have become a recurring environmental crisis. This history of shifting definitions suggests that ‘peat’ is not a stable …

The Course Of Empire Causes Us Much Grief: Imperialism, Slavery, And Genocide In The Theological Education Of Berkeley Divinity School, The Episcopal Seminary At Yale, Alden Fossett

Yale Divinity School Theses

The history of Berkeley Divinity School, the Episcopal seminary at Yale, traverses centuries and thousands of miles between Ireland, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. Abundant institutional narratives concerning Berkeley Divinity School’s origin and development over time rehearse a mythology connecting the Anglo-Irish philosopher and bishop George Berkeley (1685–1753) and the establishment of Berkeley Divinity School in 1854 by Massachusetts-born professor and bishop John Williams (1817–1899). This thesis intervenes in the historiography of Berkeley Divinity School by situating John Williams’s allusion to George Berkeley’s unfulfilled dream to establish a college training Anglican missionaries on the island of Bermuda within a British imperial …

Position: The Pre/Post-Training Boundary Should Govern Ip In Industry–Academia Ml Collaborations, Dirk Bergemann, Soheil Ghili, Nitzan Mekel-Bobrov

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Industry–academia ML collaborations routinely fail to launch—not for scientific reasons, but because academics must publish while companies must protect models trained on proprietary data, and no standard contract framework resolves this tension. Because contracts are negotiated by legal departments alone, many apparent legal disputes are incentive misalignment problems that only scientists at the table can correctly diagnose. We propose PBOS (Protect-the-Business / Open-Source-the-Science), a community-adoptable contract template anchored to a single technically-grounded boundary: pre-training artifacts (architectures, training code, benchmarks, untrained weights) are open science; post-training artifacts (weights trained on proprietary data) are business IP. This boundary is technically meaningful, legally …

Efficient Estimation In Infinite Dimensional Gmm, Jin Seo Cho, Peter C. B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In GMM estimation it is well known that if the number of moment conditions grows with the sample size, GMM asymptotics differ from the standard case with moment size fixed as the sample size tends to infinity. The present work explores infinite dimensional GMM estimation under various conditions on the moment conditions and the weight matrix. Our approach employs a partial sum process formed by the moment conditions to represent high dimensional moments and an invariance principle to capture the infinite dimensional asymptotics as the moment size grows. Next, the GMM weight matrix is assumed to converge to one of …

Regional Economic Impacts And Emission Responses Under Solar Radiation Modification, Jenny Bjordal, Evelien Van Dijk, Henri Cornec, Anthony A. Smith Jr, Trude Storelvmo

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed as a potential tool to limit increases in global or regional temperatures caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. While previous research has extensively examined the climate system’s response to various SRM strategies, as well as their aggregate economic consequences, the regional distribution of economic impacts has received less attention. In this study, we use NorESM2–DIAM—an Earth System Model coupled to a high-resolution integrated assessment model—to assess the economic impacts, measured in GDP per capita, in an idealised SRM scenario where incoming solar radiation is reduced by 1%. Our results suggest that, relative to …

Towards A Methodology For Measuring Rental Property Ownership In The United States, Stephanie Kestelman, Rebecca Diamond, John Eric Humphries, Kate Pennington, Winnie Van Dijk, John Voorheis

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Roughly one-third of U.S. households rent their homes, yet measuring who owns rental property is difficult: ownership is frequently obscured by LLCs, partnerships, and other intermediary entities that separate legal from economic control. We develop a method that traces ownership through administrative records—combining deeds and property assessments with the Census Bureau’s Business Register, IRS Schedule K-1 filings, and SEC filings on REITs—to identify ultimate owners and construct property portfolios across the full landlord size distribution. Applying the method to 11 large CBSAs, we find that individual landlords own a large majority of rental units, though their share varies meaningfully across …

Learning Through Imitation: An Experiment, Marina Agranov, Gabriel Lopez-Moctezuma, Philipp Strack, Omer Tamuz

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We compare how well agents aggregate information in two repeated social learning environments. In the first setting agents have access to a public data set. In the second they have access to the same data, and also to the past actions of others. Despite the fact that actions contain no additional payoff-relevant information, and despite potential herd behavior, free riding and information overload issues, observing and imitating the actions of others leads agents to take the optimal action more often in the second setting. We also investigate the effect of group size, as well as a setting in which agents …

Toward Healing And Justice: Building Equitable Relationships With Community Archives In El Salvador, Giada Ferrucci, Amanda Oliver, Tom Belton, Fernando Chacon

Journal of Contemporary Archival Studies

The article examines an archival component of a larger research initiative. Surviving Memory in Postwar El Salvador is a multidisciplinary, cross-sector partnership. The overall methodology of the project is participatory and survivor-centered. It aims to document and commemorate the history of the Salvadoran Civil War (1980-1992) and prevent future violence. The component of the Surviving Memory partnership the authors describe in this article elucidates the crucial importance of community archival practices undertaken to support memory, healing, and justice in El Salvador. The authors are co-investigators and collaborators who have supported the work of community archivists in El Salvador through a …

Search Costs, Intermediation, And Trade: Experimental Evidence From Ugandan Agricultural Markets, Lauren Falcao Bergquist, Craig Mcintosh, Meredith Startz

Discussion Papers

We study the large-scale experimental rollout of a platform that reduced search and matching frictions in Ugandan agricultural markets by connecting buyers and sellers. Market integration improved substantially: trade increased and price gaps fell. Interpreting the experiment through a trade model, we estimate treatment effects accounting for equilibrium changes that impact control markets. The intervention reduced fixed trade costs by 20% and increased trade flows between treated markets by 7% and across all markets by 1%. Scale economies shaped engagement:few farmers used the platform, but equilibrium price convergence from improved arbitrage by larger traders passed through to farm revenue.

Sacrifice And Survival: Encountering Colonialism And The Bounds Of Christian Humanitarianism In The Cherokee Nation From 1819-1833, Avery Maples

Kaplan Senior Essay Prize for Use of Library Special Collections

As Maggie Blackhawk illuminates in the 2023 foreword of the Harvard Law Review, the United States government has had free rein to legally subordinate Indian tribes throughout its history. As the first ever foreword to be written by a Native American woman, let alone on the topic of Indian borderland constitutionalism, Blackhawk explains the inextricable nature of federal Indian law from the development of American constitutional jurisprudence. This legacy of oppression has been intentionally crafted throughout nineteenth and twentieth-century litigation and forms the basis of federal Indian law. Supreme Court cases such as United States v. Kagama in 1886, Lone …

“At The Yale Women’S Center, Some Women Aren’T Welcome”: Reproductive Activism, Defining Feminism, And Determining Belonging In Women’S Spaces At Yale In 1987, Emi Glass

Kaplan Senior Essay Prize for Use of Library Special Collections

Tucked into the back pages of the Yale Daily News issue published on October 6, 1987 sits two opposing opinion pieces: one authored by members of the student organization Yale Students for Life (YSFL), and the other written by members of the Yale Women’s Center Coordinating Committee. While each article was addressed “to the editors,” these two groups were really in conversation with each other. The left-three quarters of the page features the piece written by YSFL, titled “Pro-life merits space at Women’s Center.” The right-hand side features a shorter piece written by the Women’s Center coordinating committee entitled “Center …

How Wasteful Is Signaling?, Alex Frankel, Navin Kartik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Signaling is wasteful. But how wasteful? We study the fraction of surplus dissipated in a separating equilibrium. For isoelastic environments, this waste ratio has a simple formula: β/(β + σ), where β is the benefit elasticity (reward to higher perception) and σ is the elasticity of higher types’ relative cost advantage. The ratio is constant across types and is independent of other parameters, including convexity of cost in the signal. We show that the directional effects of β and σ on waste extend to non-isoelastic environments.

Growth With New And Old Technologies, Bernardo Ribeiro

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper proposes a semi-endogenous growth theory that incorporates technology vintages and the endogenous evolution of multiple technological paradigms through innovation. It provides a characterization of both balanced growth equilibrium and transitional dynamics in an environment where new technologies continuously emerge. From a positive perspective, the model rationalizes two distinct empirical patterns. Using two centuries of US patent data, I first document that the age profile of patents has a pronounced hump shape: most contemporary patents build upon technologies that are between 50 and 100 years old. Second, this age profile has remained stable throughout the past century. From a …

Soft-Floor Auctions: Harnessing Regret To Improve Efficiency And Revenue, Dirk Bergemann, Kevin Breuer, Peter Crampton, Jack Hirsch, Yero S. Ndiaye, Axel Ockenfels

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A soft-floor auction asks bidders to accept an opening price to participate in a second-price auction. If no bidder accepts, lower bids are considered using first-price rules. Soft floors are common despite being irrelevant with standard assumptions. When bidders regret losing, soft-floor auctions are more efficient and profitable than standard optimal auctions. Revenue increases as bidders are inclined to accept the opening price to compete in a regret-free second-price auction. Efficiency improves because a soft floor allows for a lower hard reserve, reducing the frequency of no sale. Theory and experiment confirm these motivations from practice.

Early Childcare Attendance And Cognitive Skills In Adolescence, Ingvild Almas, Nina Drange, Costas Meghir, Henrik Daae Zachrisson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper examines the impact of early childcare on academic achievement for children in grade 5 and grade 9, based on a 2003 policy expansion that created quasi-random variation in slot availability for children aged 1–2. Starting childcare one year earlier increases math scores by 9.7% of a standard deviation (SD) in grade 9. Children whose mothers do not hold a high school diploma benefit by a significant 0.28% of a SD at grade 9, reducing the math achievement gap from children of higher-educated mothers by about one third. We also present evidence of strong improvements for children of immigrants.

Training Language Models For Bilateral Trade With Private Information, Dirk Bergemann, Soheil Ghili, Xinyang Hu, Chuanhao Li, Zhuoran Yang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Bilateral bargaining under incomplete information provides a controlled testbed for evaluating large language model (LLM) agent capabilities. Bilateral trade demands individual rationality, strategic surplus maximization, and cooperation to realize gains from trade. We develop a structured bargaining environment in which LLMs negotiate via tool calls within an event-driven simulator, separating binding offers from natural-language messages to enable automated evaluation. The environment serves two purposes: as a benchmark for frontier models and as a training environment for open-weight models via reinforcement learning. In benchmark experiments, a round-robin tournament among five frontier models (15,000 negotiations) reveals that effective strategies implement price discrimination …

Black Swans And Financial Stability: A Framework For Building Resilience, Daniel J. Barth, Stacey L. Schreft

Journal of Financial Crises

This article refines the concept of black swans, typically described as highly unlikely and catastrophic events, to be internally consistent. It explores features of the financial system that prevent the eradication of black swans. The main implication is the need to enhance the financial system’s resilience to withstand unforeseen events rather than focus on past crises. The article introduces a “resilience principle” for designing official-sector policies that can achieve such goals. The principle calls for policies that are adaptable, universal, and systemic. The article provides examples of policies with these features, assuming that the official sector is not better positioned …

Delegation And Verification Under Ai, Lingxiao Huang, Wenyang Xiao, Nisheeth K. Vishnoi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

As AI systems enter institutional workflows, workers must decide whether to delegate task execution to AI and how much effort to invest in verifying AI outputs, while institutions evaluate workers using outcome-based standards that may misalign with workers’ private costs. We model delegation and verification as the solution to a rational worker’s optimization problem, and define worker quality by evaluating an institution-centered utility (distinct from the worker’s objective) at the resulting optimal action. We formally characterize optimal worker workflows and show that AI induces phase transitions, where arbitrarily small differences in verification ability lead to sharply different behaviors. As a …

Triple/Double-Debiased Lasso, Denis Chetverikov, Joseph R.V. Sørensen, Aleh Tsyvinski

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In this paper, we propose a triple (or double-debiased) Lasso estimator for inference on a low-dimensional parameter in high-dimensional linear regression models. The estimator is based on a moment function that satisfies not only first- but also second-order Neyman orthogonality conditions, thereby eliminating both the leading bias and the second-order bias induced by regularization. We derive an asymptotic linear representation for the proposed estimator and show that its remainder terms are never larger and are often smaller in order than those in the corresponding asymptotic linear representation for the standard double Lasso estimator. Because of this improvement, the triple Lasso …

First Proof Solutions And Comments, Mohammed Abouzaid, Andrew J. Blumberg, Martin Hairer, Joe Kileel, Tamara G. Kolda, Paul D. Nelson, Daniel Spielman, Nikhil Srivastava, Rachel Ward, Shmuel Weinberger, Lauren Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Here we provide our solutions to the First Proof questions. We also discuss the best responses from publicly available AI systems that we were able to obtain in our experiments prior to the release of the problems on February 5, 2025. We hope this discussion will help readers with the relevant domain expertise to assess such responses.

Appendix To “Black Swans And Financial Stability: A Framework For Building Resilience”, Daniel J. Barth, Stacey L. Schreft

Documents

No abstract provided.

The Changing Landscape Of International Development: An Introduction, Pascaline Dupas, Pinelopi K. Goldberg, Rohini Pande

Discussion Papers

Since the late 1980s, extreme poverty has declined sharply, life expectancy and schooling have increased, and electoral democracy has expanded. However poverty reduction has slowed in recent years, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, amid intensifying conflict, fragility, climate risks, democratic backsliding, and the erosion of global trends—including trade integration and geopolitical stability—that once supported growth. These dynamics raise three interrelated questions: what barriers impede further progress; where will future growth in lower-income countries come from; and how can growth be broadly shared. Taking stock of 15 chapters forthcoming in Volume 6 of the Handbook of Development Economics, we discuss how …

The Changing Landscape Of International Development: An Introduction, Pascaline Dupas, Pinelopi Goldberg, Rohini Pande

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Since the late 1980s, extreme poverty has declined sharply, life expectancy and schooling have increased, and electoral democracy has expanded. However poverty reduction has slowed in recent years, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, amid intensifying conflict, fragility, climate risks, democratic backsliding, and the erosion of global trends—including trade integration and geopolitical stability—that once supported growth. These dynamics raise three interrelated questions: what barriers impede further progress; where will future growth in lower-income countries come from; and how can growth be broadly shared. Taking stock of 15 chapters forthcoming in Volume 6 of the Handbook of Development Economics, we discuss how …

Identifying Common Trend Determinants In Panel Data, Yoonseok Lee, Peter C.B. Phillips, Suyong Song, Donggyu Sul

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper develops a novel method for identifying observable determinants of latent common trends in nonstationary panel data, which are typically removed or controlled in two-way fixed effects regressions. By examining cross sectional dispersion processes, we assess whether panel series exhibit distributional convergence toward specific observed time series, revealing them as long run determinants of the underlying latent trend. The approach also offers a new perspective on cointegration between time series and panel data, focusing on the relative variation of the panel data with respect to the cointegration error. Applying this method to U.S. state-level crime rates demonstrates that the …

Archives And Children's Knowledge, Elliott Kuecker, Ashley Rockenbach

Journal of Contemporary Archival Studies

This article argues for the importance of collecting works created by children—not just about and not just for—in formal archival collections. Framed through the ideas of legitimate knowledge and epistemic injustice, this piece combines notions important to children’s rights activists and childhood studies scholars with the role archives can play in preserving children’s knowledge through child-created materials. The authors describe how researchers struggle to find work created by children within archives, impacting the ability to create child-centered research that centers children’s views of the world as prominently as adult views of the world. Some collections that do include child-created materials …

Leveraging Consumer-Level Ai For Descriptive Metadata Creation In Archival Collections, Hope Dunbar, Ken Axford

Journal of Contemporary Archival Studies

This study evaluates the effectiveness of consumer-level AI tools—ChatGPT Pro and Microsoft Copilot—for generating descriptive metadata in digital archival collections. Using a pilot project at the University at Buffalo's University Archives, researchers tested these tools on transcripts from the WBFO radio archives to create program descriptions of varying lengths. Findings demonstrate that both tools significantly reduced processing time for audio collections, with each exhibiting distinct advantages: ChatGPT Pro offered more adaptable outputs while Microsoft Copilot excelled in structured environments with superior privacy protections. The study explores prompt engineering strategies, examines limitations including AI hallucinations when identifying subject headings, and addresses …