Digital Commons Network^™

Misspecified Moment Inequality Models: Inference And Diagnostics, Donald W.K. Andrews, Soonwoo Kwon

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper is concerned with possible model misspecification in moment inequality models. Two issues are addressed. First, standard tests and confidence sets for the true parameter in the moment inequality literature are not robust to model misspecification in the sense that they exhibit spurious precision when the identified set is empty. This paper introduces tests and confidence sets that provide correct asymptotic inference for a pseudo-true parameter in such scenarios, and hence, do not suffer from spurious precision. Second, specification tests have relatively low power against a range of misspecified models. Thus, failure to reject the null of correct specification …

Evolution Of Modeling Of The Economics Of Global Warming: Changes In The Dice Model, 1992-2017, William D. Nordhaus

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Many areas of the natural and social sciences involve complex systems that link together multiple sectors. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are approaches that integrate knowledge from two or more domains into a single framework, and these are particularly important for climate change. One of the earliest IAMs for climate change was the DICE/RICE family of models, first published in Nordhaus (1992), with the latest version in Nordhaus (2017, 2017a). A difficulty in assessing IAMs is the inability to use standard statistical tests because of the lack of a probabilistic structure. In the absence of statistical tests, the present study examines …

Uk Asset Resolution Limited And Uk Financial Investments Limited: Relationship Framework Document, United Kingdom: Uk Asset Resolution (Ukar)

Documents

No abstract provided.

On Emergency Liquidity Assistance: Theory And Evidence, John "Iannis" Mourmouras

Documents

speech by BOG deputy governor on ELA in the eurozone during the GFC

Purchase Of Distressed Assets By Cerberus, United Kingdom: Parliament: House Of Commons

Documents

No abstract provided.

Information Design: A Unified Perspective, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Fixing a game with uncertain payoffs, information design identifies the information structure and equilibrium that maximizes the payoff of an information designer. We show how this perspective unifies existing work, including that on communication in games (Myerson (1991)), Bayesian persuasion (Kamenica and Gentzkow (2011)) and some of our own recent work. Information design has a literal interpretation, under which there is a real information designer who can commit to the choice of the best information structure (from her perspective) for a set of participants in a game. We emphasize a metaphorical interpretation, under which the information design problem is used …

Information Design: A Unified Perspective, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Given a game with uncertain payoffs, information design analyzes the extent to which the provision of information alone can influence the behavior of the players. Information design has a literal interpretation, under which there is a real information designer who can commit to the choice of the best information structure (from her perspective) for a set of participants in a game. We emphasize a metaphorical interpretation, under which the information design problem is used by the analyst to characterize play in the game under many different information structures. We provide an introduction into the basic issues and insights of a …

Global Collateral: How Financial Innovation Drives Capital Flows And Increases Financial Instability, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos, Gregory Phelan

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We show that cross-border financial flows arise when countries differ in their abilities to use assets as collateral. Financial integration is a way of sharing scarce collateral. The ability of one country to leverage and tranche assets provides attractive financial contracts to investors in the other country, and general equilibrium effects on prices create opportunities for investors in the financially advanced country to invest abroad. Foreign demand for collateral and for collateral-backed financial promises increases the collateral value of domestic assets, and cheap foreign assets provide attractive returns to investors who do not demand collateral to issue promises. Gross global …

Behavioral Characterizations Of Naiveté For Time-Inconsistent Preferences, David S. Ahn, Ryota Iijima, Yves Le Yaouanq, Todd Sarver

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose nonparametric definitions of absolute and comparative naivete. These definitions leverage ex-ante choice of menu to identify predictions of future behavior and ex-post (random) choices from menus to identify actual behavior. The main advantage of our definitions is their independence from any assumed functional form for the utility function representing behavior. An individual is sophisticated if she is indifferent ex-ante between retaining the option to choose from a menu ex-post or committing to her actual distribution of choices from that menu. She is naive if she prefers the flexibility in the menu, reflecting a mistaken belief that she will …

Information Design: A Unified Perspective, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Fixing a game with uncertain payoffs, information design identi.es the information structure and equilibrium that maximizes the payoff of an information designer. We show how this perspective unifies existing work, including that on communication in games (Myerson (1991)), Bayesian persuasion (Kamenica and Gentzkow (2011)) and some of our own recent work. Information design has a literal interpretation, under which there is a real information designer who can commit to the choice of the best information structure (from her perspective) for a set of participants in a game. We emphasize a metaphorical interpretation, under which the information design problem is used …

Information Design: A Unified Perspective, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Given a game with uncertain payoffs, information design analyzes the extent to which the provision of information alone can influence the behavior of the players. Information design has a literal interpretation, under which there is a real information designer who can commit to the choice of the best information structure (from her perspective) for a set of participants in a game. We emphasize a metaphorical interpretation, under which the information design problem is used by the analyst to characterize play in the game under many different information structures. We provide an introduction into the basic issues and insights of a …

The Anatomy Of Financial Vulnerabilities, Lee Seung Jung, Kelly E. Posenau, Viktors Stebunovs

Documents

No abstract provided.

Behavioral Characterizations Of Naiveté For Time-Inconsistent Preferences, David S. Ahn, Ryota Iijima, Yves Le Yaouanq, Todd Sarver

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose nonparametric definitions of absolute and comparative naivete. These definitions leverage ex-ante choice of menu to identify predictions of future behavior and ex-post (random) choices from menus to identify actual behavior. The main advantage of our definitions is their independence from any assumed functional form for the utility function representing behavior. An individual is sophisticated if she is indifferent between choosing from a menu ex-post or committing to the actual distribution of choices from that menu ex-ante. She is naive if she prefers the flexibility in the menu, reflecting a mistaken belief that she will act more virtuously than …

Need Vs. Supply Analysis Of The New Haven Public Bus System, Stan Mathis

Yale Day of Data

ABSTRACT:

The aim of the study was to assess how well the public transportation system of New Haven County was matched to the public transit need using publicly available geospatial datasets from state and federal sources. Geospatial bus stop data was extracted from public State of Connecticut data sets. Census tract geography was extracted from US Census TIGER files while census tract aggregated household vehicle access data was queried from the American Community Survey data access server. A census tract’s Need was defined as percentage of households reporting access to zero vehicles; its supply was defined as the number of …

Agricultural Finance Act, Taiwan: Legislative Yuan

Documents

No abstract provided.

Macrobenthos Community Succession In The Northern Gulf Of Mexico Hypoxic Regions: Testing The Pearson-Rosenberg Model, Shivakumar K. Shivarudrappa, Kevin B. Briggs

Journal of Marine Research

The Pearson and Rosenberg (P-R) conceptual model of macrobenthic succession was used to assess the impact of hypoxia (dissolved oxygen concentration ≤2 mg L^–1) on the macrobenthic community on the continental shelf of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The stress-response relationship between bottom-water oxygen concentration and the macrobenthic community was used to determine the ecological condition of the benthic habitat. In lieu of testing the effect of decreasing influence of organic enrichment on the macrobenthic community as a function of distance from the source of organic pollution, we tested the effect of bottom-water dissolved oxygen concentration as a …

Some Considerations About Coastal Ocean Observing Systems, K. H. Brink, Anthony R. Kirincich

Journal of Marine Research

Coastal ocean observing capabilities are evolving rapidly, both in terms of sensors and in terms of the volume of information available. We discuss the aspects of the coastal ocean that make it a unique environment, both in terms of physical processes and measurement techniques. Although many global-level systems are relevant to the coastal ocean, we concentrate on treating systems that are unique to the continental shelf environment. Further, we briefly discuss examples of measurement systems that would be useful for developing and driving ocean prediction systems.

Langmuir Supercells On The Middle Shelf Of The South Atlantic Bight: 1. Cell Structure, D. K. Savidge, A. E. Gargett

Journal of Marine Research

Langmuir circulation cells extending through entire water columns exert a profound influence on sediment transport on shallow shelves, hence their designation as "Langmuir Supercells" (LSs) upon discovery in 2004 in water of 15 m depth at the Long-Term Ecosystem Observatory (LEO) off New Jersey (United States). Until now, similar high-frequency, full water column measurements of turbulent velocities and density fields have not been reported from significantly deeper continental shelf environments. Such deeper measurements are needed to determine whether LSs exist to influence sediment transport outside the inner shelf. In this article, that deficiency is addressed, using measurements from a midshelf …

Recent Advances In Nearshore Wave, Circulation, And Sediment Transport Modeling, James T. Kirby

Journal of Marine Research

Significant advances in the modeling of nearshore processes have occurred over recent decades as a result of developments in both computational approaches and theoretical understanding. This review examines the present state of progress primarily from a hydrodynamics standpoint, followed by a brief discussion of applications to sediment transport and morphological evolution. Wave-averaged formulations of the wave-current interaction problem and resulting models for wave-induced currents are reviewed in order to compare and contrast radiation stress and vortex force approaches. Waveresolving approaches are then discussed, with an emphasis on the recent rapid development of 3D nonhydrostatic models and their application to a …

Forecast Errors, Goodness, And Verification In Ocean Forecasting, Gary B. Brassington

Journal of Marine Research

Verification is an essential part of the forecast process that provides guidance on the statistical behavior of the system and a framework by which a forecast can be assessed for its "goodness." Much of the framework applicable to ocean forecasting has been developed within the atmospheric community. A review of the available material is given with some commentary on its relevance in the context of ocean forecasting. A statistical theory is presented for errors in an ocean forecast system (both deterministic and ensemble) and for a number of verification metrics. Theoretical results are demonstrated with empirical models and results from …

The Effect Of A Strong Warm Winter On Subtropical Zooplankton Biomass And Metabolism, Inma Herrera, José Lopéz-Cancio, Lidia Yebra, Santiago Hernández-Léon

Journal of Marine Research

Winter 2010 was the warmest of the last 30 years in the subtropical oceanic waters north of the Canary Islands. Sea surface temperature was always above 19°C, promoting a strong stratification and preventing the expected late winter bloom. The knowledge of how planktonic organisms respond to such a warm scenario is of paramount importance to predict the effect of future ocean changes. In this study, zooplankton biomass and gut fluorescence (GF), electron transport system (ETS) activity, and aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases (AARS) activity were measured as proxies of metabolism in the oceanic waters north of the Canary Islands during the winter–spring period …

Reconstructing The Recent Past Ocean Variability: Status And Perspective, Simona Masina, Andrea Storto

Journal of Marine Research

In the last two decades, climate research has benefited from the continuous development of analysis systems dedicated to operational monitoring and forecasting, which opened up the possibility of exploiting the state of the art modeling and data assimilation tools to reconstruct and study the ocean during the past decades. This activity became feasible also thanks to the increasing availability of long time series of high-quality in situ and remotely-sensed observations. Retrospective analyses (or simply reanalyses or ocean syntheses), indeed combine quality controlled reprocessed ocean observations with a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model (OGCM) using data assimilation methods to estimate the …

The North Icelandic Jet And Its Relationship To The North Icelandic Irminger Current, Robert S. Pickart, Michael A. Spall, Daniel J. Torres, Kjetil Våge, Hedinn Valdimarsson, C. Nobre, G. W. K. Moore, Steingrimur Jonsson, Dana Mastropole

Journal of Marine Research

Shipboard hydrographic and velocity sections are used to quantify aspects of the North Icelandic Jet (NIJ), which transports dense overflow water to Denmark Strait, and the North Icelandic Irminger Current (NIIC), which imports Atlantic water to the Iceland Sea. The mean transports of the two currents are comparable, in line with previous notions that there is a local overturning cell in the Iceland Sea that transforms the Atlantic water to dense overflow water. As the NIJ and NIIC flow along the north side of Iceland, they appear to share a common front when the bottom topography steers them close together, …

A Future For Intelligent Autonomous Ocean Observing Systems, P. F.J. Lermusiaux, D. N. Subramani, J. Lin, C. S. Kulkarni, A. Gupta, A. Dutt, T. Lolla, P. J. Haley Jr., W. H. Ali, C. Mirabito, S. Jana

Journal of Marine Research

Ocean scientists have dreamed of and recently started to realize an ocean observing revolution with autonomous observing platforms and sensors. Critical questions to be answered by such autonomous systems are where, when, and what to sample for optimal information, and how to optimally reach the sampling locations. Definitions, concepts, and progress towards answering these questions using quantitative predictions and fundamental principles are presented. Results in reachability and path planning, adaptive sampling, machine learning, and teaming machines with scientists are overviewed. The integrated use of differential equations and theory from varied disciplines is emphasized. The results provide an inference engine and …

Oil Spill Forecasting (Prediction), George Zodiatis, Robin Lardner, Tiago M. Alves, Yiannis Krestenitis, Leonidas Perivoliotis, Sarantis Sofianos, Katerina Spanoudaki

Journal of Marine Research

Oil spills in the ocean are a matter of concern due to the damaging effect they can have on coastal and offshore resources. This work presents a review of present-day modeling techniques used in the mitigation of oil spills by booms, skimmers, chemical dispersants, and other equipment and the importance of the controlling parameters of these techniques. Three basic questions need to be addressed by oil spill models: (1) where the spill will move, (2) when will the spill get to the modeled endpoints, and (3) what will be its state when it arrives. The first two questions are relatively …

Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Forecasting At Short And Medium Time Scales, Julie Pullen, Richard Allard, Hyodae Seo, Arthur J. Miller, Shuyi Chen, Luciano Ponzi Pezzi, Travis Smith, Philip Chu, José Alves, Rui Caldeira

Journal of Marine Research

Recent technological advances over the past few decades have enabled the development of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling prediction systems that are used today to support short-term (days to weeks) and medium-term (10–21 days) needs for both the operational and research communities. We overview the coupling framework, including model components and grid resolution considerations, as well as the coupling physics by examining heat fluxes between atmosphere and ocean, momentum transfer, and freshwater fluxes. These modeling systems can be run as fully coupled atmosphere-ocean and atmosphere-ocean-wave configurations. Examples of several modeling systems applied to complex coastal regions including Madeira Island, Adriatic Sea, …

Doctors, Death, And Denial: The Origins Of Hospice Care In 20th Century America, Sarah E. Pajka

Kaplan Senior Essay Prize for Use of Library Special Collections

This essay provides insight into the social and cultural trends that led to the creation of hospice care in the United States. The essay covers the changes in treatment of death by the medical profession, from the discussion of tuberculosis sanatoriums and cancer centers in the early 1900s through the rise of medical authority, and the pivotal role of Yale School of Nursing dean Florence Wald in the 1980 opening of Connecticut Hospice, the first modern American hospice facility.

Polarization Of Cystic Fibrosis Macrophages Is Dysregulated, Evan Jacob Levy

Yale Medicine Thesis Digital Library

We hypothesize that intrinsic defects in cystic fibrosis (CF) macrophages affect their ability to adequately respond to extracellular stimuli, affecting their phenotypic response and contributing to a hyper-inflammatory state.

Peripheral blood-derived monocytes from healthy donors (HD) (n=10) as well as CF subjects (n=10) were differentiated into macrophages using RPMI media with 50 ng/mL of MCSF for 10 days. Cells were treated with 100 ng/mL of LPS plus 20 ng/mL of INF-gamma to activate the M1 phenotype or 20 ng/mL of IL-4 to activate the M2 phenotype. Cells were treated for 24 hours in preparation for RNA isolation and 3 hours …

Pblcloud Virtual Patient Simulator: Enhancing Immersion Through Natural Language Processing, Pierre Rodricus Martin

Yale Medicine Thesis Digital Library

PBLCLOUD VIRTUAL PATIENT SIMULATOR: ENHANCING IMMERSION THROUGH NATURAL LANGUAGE PROCESSING

Pierre Martin M.Ed.(1), Lisa DelSignore M.D.(2), and Traci A. Wolbrink M.D. M.P.H.(2)

(1)Yale School of Medicine (2)From the Division of Critical Care Medicine, Department of Anesthesia, Perioperative and Pain Management, Boston Children’s Hospital and the Department of Anesthesia, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. (Sponsored by JH, Department of Pediatrics, Yale School of Medicine)

Virtual patient simulation has been utilized to teach interviewing skills, often employing selection-based methods (e.g., multiple-choice lists and menu-based prompts) to simulate doctor-patient conversations. Users have evaluated these systems as inauthentic, which can diminish user immersion …

Electronic Medical Records For Trauma Surveillance In South Africa: The Case Of Khayelitsha Hospital, Emmanuel Chibuikem Ohuabunwa

Yale Medicine Thesis Digital Library

Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) have shown benefit for clinical, organizational, and societal outcomes(1). In South Africa, the desire for effective record keeping will continue to rise with increasing trauma and infectious disease rates. Recognizing this, the Western Cape government in 1999 signed a tender to rollout Clinicom EMR, an online storage system for paper records, to all hospitals within the province(2).

In 2012, Khayelitsha Hospital (KH) was opened with the Clinicom EMR installed. In 2013, KH received the ministerial award for clinical excellence as a result of the effective EMR rollout. Due to a high incidence of violence around Khayelitsha, …