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An Operational Scheme For Dynamic Resource Management In Case Of Natural Disaster Events, Paolo Fiorucci, F. Gaetani, R. Minciardi, Antonio Sgorbissa Jul 2006

An Operational Scheme For Dynamic Resource Management In Case Of Natural Disaster Events, Paolo Fiorucci, F. Gaetani, R. Minciardi, Antonio Sgorbissa

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The management of the resources engaged in emergencies due to the occurrence of very intense natural events requires the acquisition and processing of a huge number of heterogeneous data. Such data, both of deterministic and random nature, generally refer to different spatial and temporal scales. Considering the three main frameworks in which a natural risk scenario can be classified (i.e., preventive, emergency, and post-emergency phases), risk assessment has to be followed by a decision-oriented phase, whose objective is the selection of the optimal actions to undertake, on the basis of the available information. In the paper, the conceptual scheme and …

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Surface Flows Modelling: Cellular Automata Simulations Of Lava, Debris And Pyroclastic Flows, M. V. Avolio, G. M. Crisci, D. D’Ambrosio, S. Di Gregorio, Giulio Iovine, V. Lupiano, R. Rongo, W. Spataro Jul 2006

Surface Flows Modelling: Cellular Automata Simulations Of Lava, Debris And Pyroclastic Flows, M. V. Avolio, G. M. Crisci, D. D’Ambrosio, S. Di Gregorio, Giulio Iovine, V. Lupiano, R. Rongo, W. Spataro

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Cellular Automata (CA) are a computational paradigm, a valid alternative to standard methods with differential equations for modelling and simulating complex systems, whose behaviour may be specified in terms of local interactions in a context of discrete time and space. Some surface flows may be approximated to such a type of complex systems. The Empedocles Research Group developed an empirical methodology for modelling this kind of macroscopic phenomena. The CA space for surface flows is divided in hexagonal cells, whose specification (state) describes the physical characteristics (substates) relevant to the evolution of the system and relative to the space portion …

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Predicting Impacts Of Water Management In Coastal Zones By Hydraulic And Salinity Modeling, C. T. Hoanh, N. D. Phong, J. W. Gowing, T. P. Tuong, N. X. Hien, N. D. Dat Jul 2006

Predicting Impacts Of Water Management In Coastal Zones By Hydraulic And Salinity Modeling, C. T. Hoanh, N. D. Phong, J. W. Gowing, T. P. Tuong, N. X. Hien, N. D. Dat

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Tidal effects and salinity intrusion are two defining characteristics of coastal zones. The firstcauses complex variations of water level and unsteady flows in the river and canal network. The second is aconstraint to agriculture and freshwater fishery, but provides suitable conditions for brackish wateraquaculture. These phenomena bring about conflicts in the development of agriculture, fishery andaquaculture due to different requirements of water quality. Hydraulic and salinity modeling have beendeveloped and applied to simulate tidal propagation and salinity intrusion, and to analyze the effects of watermanagement on hydrological and salinity conditions that control land use in the coastal zones. This paperpresents …

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State Of The Art In Methods And Software For The Identification, Resolution And Apportionment Of Contamination Sources, Roma Tauler, Pentti Paatero, Cliff Spiegelman, Eun Sug Park, Richard L. Poirot, Philip Hopke, Ronald C. Henry Jul 2006

State Of The Art In Methods And Software For The Identification, Resolution And Apportionment Of Contamination Sources, Roma Tauler, Pentti Paatero, Cliff Spiegelman, Eun Sug Park, Richard L. Poirot, Philip Hopke, Ronald C. Henry

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Current approaches and recent developments and software related with multivariate factor analysis and related methods in the analysis of environmental data for the identification, resolution and apportionment of contamination sources are discussed and compared

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Prorank A Software Tool Used For The Evaluation Of Environmental Databases, S. Pudenz, Rainer Brüggemann, K. Voigt Jul 2006

Prorank A Software Tool Used For The Evaluation Of Environmental Databases, S. Pudenz, Rainer Brüggemann, K. Voigt

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

On one hand a lot of research has been performed and an enormous amount of data generated concerning protection of human health and the environment with respect to chemical substances. On the other hand great data gaps for environmental chemicals have been detected in the run-up to a new chemicals policy in the EU, known under the name of REACH. In our approach we elucidate the data availability on chemicals applying the Hasse Diagram Technique (HDT) which originates in discrete mathematics as an environmetrical and chemometrical method. The software package used is ProRank software for multi-criteria evaluation and decision support …

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Supporting Multidisciplinary Model-Based Water Management Projects: A User Perspective, Huub Scholten, Ayalew Kassahun Jul 2006

Supporting Multidisciplinary Model-Based Water Management Projects: A User Perspective, Huub Scholten, Ayalew Kassahun

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Multidisciplinary model-based water management is a complex process. Projects that have to follow this process may encounter many problems, related to miscommunication, malpractice, misuse of the model, insufficient knowledge of the modeled problems and overselling of model capabilities. This leads to model projects, which are not transparent and difficult to audit. The knowledge-based system consists of an ontological knowledge base (KB) with ‘best modelling practices’ for teams, which members have different disciplinary backgrounds and play different roles in a project, and a Modelling Support Tool (MoST). MoST generates and presents guidelines from the KB on what to do. MoST also …

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A Protocol For The Development, Evaluation And Application Of Environmental Models In Decision Making, Noha Gaber, Pasky Pascual, Gary Foley, Neil Stiber, Elsie Sunderland Jul 2006

A Protocol For The Development, Evaluation And Application Of Environmental Models In Decision Making, Noha Gaber, Pasky Pascual, Gary Foley, Neil Stiber, Elsie Sunderland

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Models have emerged as essential tools in environmental management, whether used to further the understanding of complex environmental processes or to inform decisions for environmental planning, remediation, protection or regulation. However, their utility aside, there is also an acknowledgment of their limitations. The question is not whether or not to use models, but rather how best to develop and use models to arrive at credible, defensible and robust decisions and what attributes make a model useful for a given situation. To understand the role of models and decision support tools in environmental management, we must first consider the different types …

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Confronting Edss-Maintenance Validation, Clàudia Turon, Joaquim Comas, Ulises Cortés, Manel Poch Jul 2006

Confronting Edss-Maintenance Validation, Clàudia Turon, Joaquim Comas, Ulises Cortés, Manel Poch

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Daily operation and maintenance tasks are needed to guarantee the correct performance of Constructed Wetlands (CWs). The definition of these activities is a complex task since these actions vary according to the technology, the configuration and the design of the wastewater treatment plant, the community characteristics and the features of the receiving media. To support the definition of these actions an Environmental Decision Support System (EDSS) has been constructed (EDSS-maintenance). The methodology used to develop EDSS-maintenance is based on the following 5 steps: environmental problem analysis, data and knowledge acquisition, model selection, model implementation and validation. The first 4 steps …

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Mike Basin, David Wood Jul 2006

Mike Basin, David Wood

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

MIKE BASIN addresses water allocation, conjunctive use, reservoir operation, or water quality issues. It couples ArcGIS with hydrologic modeling to provide basin-scale solutions. The MIKE BASIN philosophy is to keep modeling simple and intuitive, yet provide in-depth insight for planning and management. In MIKE BASIN, the emphasis is on both simulation and visualization in both space and time, making it appropriate for building understanding and consensus. MIKE BASIN is a quasi-steady-state mass balance model, allowing for routed river flows. The water quality solution assumes purely advective transport. Decay during transport can be modeled. The groundwater description uses the linear reservoir …

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Development Of A National, Landuse-Based Water Balance Model For Australia, Wendy D. Welsh, D. G. Barratt, K. Ranatunga, L. A. Randall Jul 2006

Development Of A National, Landuse-Based Water Balance Model For Australia, Wendy D. Welsh, D. G. Barratt, K. Ranatunga, L. A. Randall

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Australia currently has no nation-wide comprehensive and consistent information on the spatial and temporal relationships between rainfall, evapotranspiration, drainage to groundwater and runoff to rivers. To estimate this information a simple modelling approach utilising existing data was sought. A review of existing models and their data requirements led to the development of a steady state Geographic Information System (GIS) based method driven by long-term average climate data and high resolution land cover and land use data. Mean annual and mean monthly runoff, evapotranspiration and drainage were modelled. Runoff results were evaluated against other published values where available and found to …

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Spatial Estimations Of Air Pollution In Urban Areas By Lidar Measurements, L. Matejicek Jul 2006

Spatial Estimations Of Air Pollution In Urban Areas By Lidar Measurements, L. Matejicek

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Spatial analysis and visualization of data focused on air pollution in urban areas can be more efficiently explored by geographic information systems (GISs). Data originating from direct monitoring, mathematical modelling and physical simulation in wind tunnels are represented by a wide range of data formats that, together with spatial objects on the surface of studied areas, form heterogenic structures. Thus, to solve spatio-temporal analysis and numeric models, a complex computer system is needed to manage the data and a number of user oriented procedures. In the case of this contribution, a GIS project is developed to examine the GIS abilities …

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Impacts Of Agriculture And Dairy Farming On Groundwater Quality: An Optimization Problem, Tomaz Dentinho, R. Minciardi, M. Robba, Roberto Sacile, V. Silva Jul 2006

Impacts Of Agriculture And Dairy Farming On Groundwater Quality: An Optimization Problem, Tomaz Dentinho, R. Minciardi, M. Robba, Roberto Sacile, V. Silva

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A decision model for groundwater quality preservation in areas affected by intensive agriculture and dairy farming, with specific reference to the Azores islands, is presented. In these islands, the exigency to find appropriate instruments to support decisions in Integrated Water Management (IWM) is particularly felt because the increase of tourism and the dairy farming have increased water demands and depletion of water quality. An optimization problem, in terms of decision variables, objectives, and constraints is formalized. The physical/chemical/ecological models are embedded as constraints in the decision model. Specifically, four types of models (hydraulic model, chemical model, agricultural model, and dairy …

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Rainfall–Streamflow–Air Temperature Datasets (And Catchment Information) Available Internationally To Assist With Pub Decade Top-Down Modelling, B. F. W. Croke, I. G. Littlewood, D. A. Post Jul 2006

Rainfall–Streamflow–Air Temperature Datasets (And Catchment Information) Available Internationally To Assist With Pub Decade Top-Down Modelling, B. F. W. Croke, I. G. Littlewood, D. A. Post

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

One of the purposes of the Top-Down modelling Working Group (TDWG) within the Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) Initiative of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) is to use available data (including new datasets – e.g. remote sensing products) to test existing rainfall-runoff models and develop new models. As such, effort has been made to collate data for a wide variety of catchments distributed over the globe. The first datasets obtained are for the UK, USA and Australia, yielding a total of 830 catchments. This paper describes the datasets, and presents an example of data analysis techniques that are …

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Declarative Modelling For Architecture Independence And Data/Model Integration: A Case Study, Ferdinando Villa, Marcello Donatelli, Andrea-Emilio Rizzoli, Peter Krause, Sven Kralisch, Frits Van Evert Jul 2006

Declarative Modelling For Architecture Independence And Data/Model Integration: A Case Study, Ferdinando Villa, Marcello Donatelli, Andrea-Emilio Rizzoli, Peter Krause, Sven Kralisch, Frits Van Evert

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The need for integrating dynamic models with independently developed datasets and other models has long been recognized. Only recently, advances in modelling technologies, knowledge representation and protocols for remote communication of structured content have made this goal practical. The same advances make it possible to decouple the representation of a model from its executable implementation in ways that allow unprecedented levels of architecture independence and explicit, transportable model declaration. These developments are crucial to the creation of repositories of models where the models' lifetime is not tied to that of specific modelling paradigms, execution architectures, or storage technology. In this …

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An Efficient Algorithmic Framework For Environmental Modeling, U. Diwekar Jul 2006

An Efficient Algorithmic Framework For Environmental Modeling, U. Diwekar

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Environmental systems often involve nonlinear models, continuous as well discrete decisions, and multiple objectives. Uncertainties are inherent in these models increasing the complexity of decision making further. This paper presents an efficient algorithmic framework for environmental decision making for large scale systems involving multiple objectives in the face of uncertainties.

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Features Of Advanced Decision Support Systems For Environmental Studies, Management, And Regulation, Edwin Roehl, Ruby Daamen, Paul A. Conrads Jul 2006

Features Of Advanced Decision Support Systems For Environmental Studies, Management, And Regulation, Edwin Roehl, Ruby Daamen, Paul A. Conrads

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Natural resource managers and users face difficult challenges when managing the interactions between natural and man-made systems. Even though the collective interests and computer skills of the community of managers, scientists, and other stakeholders are quite varied, there is an overarching need for equal access by all to the scientific knowledge needed to make the best possible decisions. A decision support system (DSS) can meet this need. DSS have been described as, “computer-based systems (for) helping decision-makers to solve various semi structured and unstructured problems involving multiple attributes, objectives, and goals… Historically, the majority of DSSs have been either computer …

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Data Mining And Image Segmentation Approaches For Classifying Defoliation In Aerial Forest Imagery, K. Fukuda, P. A. Pearson Jul 2006

Data Mining And Image Segmentation Approaches For Classifying Defoliation In Aerial Forest Imagery, K. Fukuda, P. A. Pearson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Experimental data mining and image segmentation approaches are developed to add insight towards aerial image interpretation for defoliation survey procedures. A decision tree classifier generated with a data mining package, WEKA [Witten and Frank, 2005], based on the contents of a small number of training data points, identified from known classes, is used to predict the extents of regions containing different levels of tree mortality (severe, moderate, light and non attack) and land cover (vegetation and ground surface). This approach is applicable to low quality imagery without traditional image pre-processing (e.g., normalization or noise reduction). To generate the decision tree, …

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Comparison Of Linear And Non-Linear Pls Methods For Soft-Sensing Of An Sbr For Nutrient Removal, K. Villez, D. S. Lee, C. Rosen, Peter A. Vanrolleghem Jul 2006

Comparison Of Linear And Non-Linear Pls Methods For Soft-Sensing Of An Sbr For Nutrient Removal, K. Villez, D. S. Lee, C. Rosen, Peter A. Vanrolleghem

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Despite of promising results in research, advanced control strategies fail to gain trust in wastewater treatment practice. Due to the sensitivity of the biological processes to disturbances, operators are often unable to find the causes of faults due to the lack of effective real-time on-line monitoring. Strategies for on-line monitoring are therefore essential to enhance biological process control. Therefore, a suitable multivariate soft-sensor is desired for fault detection and control for a pilot-scale sequencing batch reactor (SBR) system to allow effluent quality to be estimated well before off-line analysis is finished. For this purpose, several multivariate methods are available, including …

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Supporting Environmental And Energy Decisions Through An Open Software Structure, Giorgio Guariso, Matteo Baracani Jul 2006

Supporting Environmental And Energy Decisions Through An Open Software Structure, Giorgio Guariso, Matteo Baracani

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Public participation to environmental planning and management decisions, as suggested by localAgenda 21 processes, can be supported by software tools developed with a cyclic interaction with all thestakeholders and simple enough to be quickly operated by a large set of heterogeneous users. This also helpspreventing their rapid aging and their excessive dependence on changing technologies. We experimented thedevelopment of such software tools using an Office type environment to store data, analyse, andgeographically represent the effects of alternative decisions and html files to help utilizing the software anddistributing the information over the Internet. Two different applications are reported in the paper. …

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Uncertainty In Environmental Decision-Making: Issues, Challenges And Future Directions, Holger R. Maier, James C. Ascough Ii Jul 2006

Uncertainty In Environmental Decision-Making: Issues, Challenges And Future Directions, Holger R. Maier, James C. Ascough Ii

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Environmental decision-making is complicated by the complexity of natural systems and the often competing needs of multiple stakeholders. Modelling tools are often used to assist at various stages of the environmental decision-making process. If such models are to provide effective decision support, the uncertainties associated with all aspects of the decision-making process need to be taken into account explicitly. However, as models become more complex in order to better represent integrated environmental, social and economic systems, achieving this goal becomes more difficult. Some of the important issues that need to be addressed in relation to the incorporation of uncertainty in …

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Multiobjective Optimization Procedure For Control Strategies In Environmental Systems, Xavier Flores, Joaquim Comas, Ignasi Rodríguez-Roda, Laureano Jiménez, Rene Bañares-Alcántara Jul 2006

Multiobjective Optimization Procedure For Control Strategies In Environmental Systems, Xavier Flores, Joaquim Comas, Ignasi Rodríguez-Roda, Laureano Jiménez, Rene Bañares-Alcántara

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper presents a systematic procedure for multiobjective optimization of control strategies in environmental systems. The optimization of control strategies in environmental systems is a complex activity due to the large number of objectives that must be considered simultaneously e.g. economic, environmental, technical, legal. The accomplishment of those objectives generates significant synergies, but in many cases they are subject of clear trade-offs. This procedure is approached as a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and involves the quantification and normalization of a set of evaluation criteria and a weighted sum. A sensitivity analysis is also included in order to show the variation …

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Surface Flows Modelling: Cellular Automata Simulations Of Lava, Debris And Pyroclastic Flows, M. V. Avolio, G. M. Crisci, D. D’Ambrosio, S. Di Gregorio, Giulio Iovine, V. Lupiano, R. Rongo, W. Spataro Jul 2006

Surface Flows Modelling: Cellular Automata Simulations Of Lava, Debris And Pyroclastic Flows, M. V. Avolio, G. M. Crisci, D. D’Ambrosio, S. Di Gregorio, Giulio Iovine, V. Lupiano, R. Rongo, W. Spataro

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Cellular Automata (CA) are a computational paradigm, a valid alternative to standard methods with differential equations for modelling and simulating complex systems, whose behaviour may be specified in terms of local interactions in a context of discrete time and space. Some surface flows may be approximated to such a type of complex systems. The Empedocles Research Group developed an empirical methodology for modelling this kind of macroscopic phenomena. The CA space for surface flows is divided in hexagonal cells, whose specification (state) describes the physical characteristics (substates) relevant to the evolution of the system and relative to the space portion …

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Modelling Lava Flow To Assess Hazard On Mount Etna (Italy). From Geological Data To A Preliminary Hazard Map, E. Bertino, M. L. Damiani, G. Groppelli, G. Norini, B. Aldighieri, S. Borgonovo, F. Comoglio, G. Pasquaré Jul 2006

Modelling Lava Flow To Assess Hazard On Mount Etna (Italy). From Geological Data To A Preliminary Hazard Map, E. Bertino, M. L. Damiani, G. Groppelli, G. Norini, B. Aldighieri, S. Borgonovo, F. Comoglio, G. Pasquaré

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In this paper we present a systematic approach to the development of the lava flow hazard map forthe Mount Etna, the most important active volcano in Europe. The basic idea is to determine the hazard zonesby simulating the lava flows originated from a number of sample points localized in regions at high densityof vents, called eruption zones. The key choice is the adoption of a probabilistic model for the simulation ofthe lava flow. In the paper we outline the characteristics of the model, called ELFM, and how it has beenvalidated. On the other side, for the determination of the eruption …

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Predicting Impacts Of Water Management In Coastal Zones By Hydraulic And Salinity Modeling, C. T. Hoanh, N. D. Phong, J. W. Gowing, T. P. Tuong, N. X. Hien, N. D. Dat Jul 2006

Predicting Impacts Of Water Management In Coastal Zones By Hydraulic And Salinity Modeling, C. T. Hoanh, N. D. Phong, J. W. Gowing, T. P. Tuong, N. X. Hien, N. D. Dat

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Tidal effects and salinity intrusion are two defining characteristics of coastal zones. The firstcauses complex variations of water level and unsteady flows in the river and canal network. The second is aconstraint to agriculture and freshwater fishery, but provides suitable conditions for brackish wateraquaculture. These phenomena bring about conflicts in the development of agriculture, fishery andaquaculture due to different requirements of water quality. Hydraulic and salinity modeling have beendeveloped and applied to simulate tidal propagation and salinity intrusion, and to analyze the effects of watermanagement on hydrological and salinity conditions that control land use in the coastal zones. This paperpresents …

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Ranking Regions Using Cluster Analysis, Hasse Diagram Technique And Topology, Guillermo Restrepo, Rainer Brüggemann Jul 2006

Ranking Regions Using Cluster Analysis, Hasse Diagram Technique And Topology, Guillermo Restrepo, Rainer Brüggemann

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

We developed the theoretical background of the application of Hierarchical Cluster Analysis HCA to the improvement of the understanding of Hasse Diagrams coming from the ranking process developed for the application of the Hasse Diagram Technique HDT. The use of HCA is based on the idea of the reduction of the number of elements considered in a poset (partially ordered set) by the selection of representatives from the original set to rank. We showed that the clusters arisen from HCA can be interpreted as similarity classes where one of its members (the nearest to the centre of the cluster) can …

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Application Of An Artificial Neural Network For Analysis Of Subsurface Contamination At The Schuyler Falls Landfill, Ny, Lance E. Besaw, Donna M. Rizzo, P. J. Mouser Jul 2006

Application Of An Artificial Neural Network For Analysis Of Subsurface Contamination At The Schuyler Falls Landfill, Ny, Lance E. Besaw, Donna M. Rizzo, P. J. Mouser

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Current subsurface site characterization, plume delineation, remediation designs and monitoring network designs that rely on a limited, albeit large, number of sparsely collected data, tend to be expensive, cumbersome and frequently inadequate for solving multi-objective, long-term environmental management problems. We present a subsurface characterization methodology that integrates multiple types of data using a modified counterpropagation artificial neural network (ANN) to provide parameter estimates and delineate groundwater contamination at a leaking landfill. Apparent conductivity survey data and hydrochemistry data (i.e. heavy metals, BOD5,20, chloride concentration, etc.) are used to estimate the extent of subsurface contamination at the Schuyler Falls Landfill, located …

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Air Quality Modelling: State-Of-The-Art, R. San José, A. Baklanov, R. S. Sokhi, Kostas Karatzas, J. L. Pérez Jul 2006

Air Quality Modelling: State-Of-The-Art, R. San José, A. Baklanov, R. S. Sokhi, Kostas Karatzas, J. L. Pérez

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Air quality modeling is an area with a significant progress and interest during the last two decades. It covers all aspects related to pollution dispersion and impact on different ecosystems. It is very much related to the meteorological field since the atmosphere is governed by the general laws derived by the Navier-Stokes equation system. Progress in computer capabilities during the last decades has impulse substantially the research on air quality modeling in a parallel way. Air pollution modeling covers a very complex and interdisciplinary area where we include remote sensing – land use impact -, initial and boundary conditions, data …

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Spatial Estimations Of Air Pollution In Street Canyons By Lidar Measurements, L. Matejicek, Jana Konradova Jul 2006

Spatial Estimations Of Air Pollution In Street Canyons By Lidar Measurements, L. Matejicek, Jana Konradova

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Air pollution of urban areas can be explored by direct monitoring, mathematical modeling and physical simulation in the wind tunnels. Complex analysis requires using of all mentioned approaches together. To integrate the data inputs and outputs, which include spatio-temporal interactions, the Geographic Information System (GIS) is used for database management and spatial analysis. The geodatabase is primarily developed to support spatial interpolations of LIDAR measurements in the street canyons. The LIDAR measurements provide the information about the distribution of pollutants in the points along the beam trajectories. As the examples, the sets of NO2 spatial measurements are performed in the …

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Development Of A National, Landuse-Based Water Balance Model For Australia, Wendy D. Welsh, D. G. Barratt, K. Ranatunga, L. A. Randall Jul 2006

Development Of A National, Landuse-Based Water Balance Model For Australia, Wendy D. Welsh, D. G. Barratt, K. Ranatunga, L. A. Randall

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Australia currently has no nation-wide comprehensive and consistent information on the spatial and temporal relationships between rainfall, evapotranspiration, drainage to groundwater and runoff to rivers. To estimate this information a simple modelling approach utilising existing data was sought. A review of existing models and their data requirements led to the development of a steady state Geographic Information System (GIS) based method driven by long-term average climate data and high resolution land cover and land use data. Mean annual and mean monthly runoff, evapotranspiration and drainage were modelled. Runoff results were evaluated against other published values where available and found to …

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An Optimal Control And Options Theory Approach To Forecasting And Managing Sustainable Systems, Y. Shastri, U. Diwekar Jul 2006

An Optimal Control And Options Theory Approach To Forecasting And Managing Sustainable Systems, Y. Shastri, U. Diwekar

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Sustainable management of the natural systems is essential in the presence of anthropogenic andnatural disasters. Fisher information based measure and hypothesis have been proposed to quantify the sustainabilityof natural systems, which are used in this work to formulate management objectives. Since uncertaintyis omnipresent in natural systems, its consideration is important. Real options theory deals extensively with therepresentation and forecasting of uncertainty. The options theory, with the Ito mean reverting process, is usedto represent uncertainty, and optimal control theory is used to derive time dependent decisions. The idea isimplemented on a three species predator-prey model. The results highlight the effect of …

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