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An Agent-Based Model For Studying The Effects Of Sustainable Intensification On Food Security In The Nation State, James Reilly, Terry Dawson, Robin Matthews, Gary Polhill, Pete Smith Jul 2016

An Agent-Based Model For Studying The Effects Of Sustainable Intensification On Food Security In The Nation State, James Reilly, Terry Dawson, Robin Matthews, Gary Polhill, Pete Smith

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Growth in World’s population, the expansion of human activities and the demand for land has and continues to damage the natural environment. Humans depend on the natural environment for essential life-preserving processes, for example food production. Damage to the environment has serious consequences for national (State) and human security and well-being. One concern is food security and, in particular, whether a growing World population will find enough food to eat. The consequences of using more land and resources to grow more food are an important area of research. The expansion of farming will leave less land for other important uses. …

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Residual Soil Nitrogen Scenario Analysis Of Canadian Farmland Using A Canadian Agricultural Nitrogen Budget (Canb V4.0) Model, Jingyi Yang, Craig Drury Jul 2016

Residual Soil Nitrogen Scenario Analysis Of Canadian Farmland Using A Canadian Agricultural Nitrogen Budget (Canb V4.0) Model, Jingyi Yang, Craig Drury

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A Canadian Agricultural Nitrogen Budget (CANB) model has been developed since 2002 to estimate Residual Soil Nitrogen (RSN) and N leaching loss across Canadian farmland. The current results showed that national RSN averages in Canadian farmland (annual N input minus annual N output) increased from 9.4 kg N ha-1 in 1981 to 23.6 kg N ha-1 in 2011 as mainly affected by the increase in synthetic fertilizer N usage and biological N2 fixation. With annual drainage, about 50 and 80% of residual soil N was lost in Central (Ontario and Quebec) and Atlantic Canada, respectively, through leaching and varying according …

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Watershed And Economic Data Interoperability (Wedo) System, Rajbir Parmar, John M. Johnston, Mike Galvin, Amber Ignatius, Catherine Foley Jul 2016

Watershed And Economic Data Interoperability (Wedo) System, Rajbir Parmar, John M. Johnston, Mike Galvin, Amber Ignatius, Catherine Foley

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Hydrologic modeling is essential for environmental, economic, and human health decision- making. However, sharing of modeling studies is limited within the watershed modeling community. Distribution of hydrologic modeling research typically involves publishing summarized data in peer reviewed journals, producing reports, or presenting at conferences. This narrow data distribution process limits interoperability, decreases transparency, wastes leveraging potential, and discourages detailed evaluation by other modelers. These limitations are also experienced beyond hydrologic modeling. For example, an economic analysis for nutrient trading may not be possible without access to detailed hydrologic modeling data. To address these issues, the Watershed and Economic Data InterOperability …

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Sustainable Collective Pest Management Using A Graph-Based Markov Decision Processes Framework, Jean-Noël Aubertot, Marie-Josée Cros, Nathalie Peyrard, Régis Sabbadin Jul 2016

Sustainable Collective Pest Management Using A Graph-Based Markov Decision Processes Framework, Jean-Noël Aubertot, Marie-Josée Cros, Nathalie Peyrard, Régis Sabbadin

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

For environmental, ecological and human health sustainability, there is a great need to limit the structural dependency of agriculture on pesticides while, at the same time, maintaining satisfactory levels of production and farmers’ gross margins. A model was developed to explore the consequences of various management policies to contain blackleg on canola, on a long term basis. This model relies on the Graph-based Markov Decision Processes (GMDP) framework, that allows representing and optimizing sequential decisions under uncertainty, taking into account interactions between fields (spore dispersal). The objective of the study is to help better enforce management practices such as cultivar …

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The European Information Platform For Chemical Monitoring (Ipchem) - How Can You Realize Interoperability?, Gerlinde Knetsch, Maria Ruether Jul 2016

The European Information Platform For Chemical Monitoring (Ipchem) - How Can You Realize Interoperability?, Gerlinde Knetsch, Maria Ruether

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Monitoring programs in Germany offer a large variety of data. On the one hand, these data are generated over many years in selected sampling areas; on the other hand, studies of monitoring take place in the context of research projects or other investigations. These data are often available in web-based information systems. Two databases will be presented with their potential for the interoperability with a (technical) platform for data of the chemical monitoring. The European project "Information Platform for Chemical Monitoring (IPCheM)" promotes networking of various existing databases and information systems with the goal of advancing the environmental data exchange …

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Development Of A Nutrient Load Apportionment Modelling Toolbox, Eva M. Mockler Jul 2016

Development Of A Nutrient Load Apportionment Modelling Toolbox, Eva M. Mockler

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Where surface waters are impacted by excess nutrients, understanding the sources of those nutrients is key to the development of effective, targeted, mitigation measures. In Ireland, nutrient emissions remains the top suspected cause of surface waters not achieving the required Good Status, as defined by the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Hence, a toolbox has been developed to predict the sources of nutrients contributing to these emissions, and to assess future pressures and the likely effectiveness of targeted mitigation scenarios. This Source Load Apportionment Model (SLAM) supports catchment managers by providing scientifically robust evidence to back-up decision-making in relation to reducing …

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A Scientific Data Management Infrastructure For Environmental Monitoring And Modelling, Daniel Henzen, Matthias Mueller, Simon Jirka, Julia Senner, Thomas Kaeseberg, Jin Zhang, Lars Bernard, Peter Krebs Jul 2016

A Scientific Data Management Infrastructure For Environmental Monitoring And Modelling, Daniel Henzen, Matthias Mueller, Simon Jirka, Julia Senner, Thomas Kaeseberg, Jin Zhang, Lars Bernard, Peter Krebs

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Environmental projects often require the collaboration of researchers from different disciplines or domains in an interoperable context. With regard to data handling, most of these projects have an analogous workflow: phenomena are monitored, observation data are captured, (pre-) processed, exchanged, published, and finally disseminated among other scientists, practitioners and stakeholders. In many cases, each of the project partners implements these workflows separately and the integration of the distributed data sets happen in later project stages. In this paper, we present building blocks for research data infrastructure which covers the complete project cycle and supports data integration right from the beginning. …

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An Integrated Modelling Approach To Climate Change And Malaria Vulnerability Assessments, Esther Achieng Onyango, Oz Sahin, Cordia Chu, Brendan Mackey Jul 2016

An Integrated Modelling Approach To Climate Change And Malaria Vulnerability Assessments, Esther Achieng Onyango, Oz Sahin, Cordia Chu, Brendan Mackey

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies providing evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures resulting in adverse impacts on vulnerable communities. This risk is significant in East Africa whereby current research shows an expansion of malaria into the highland areas due to changes in temperature and rainfall. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria and the risk posed to vulnerable communities, there is insufficient understanding of the complexity of factors influencing the spread of the …

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Evaluation Of Future Climate Change Impact On Aquatic Ecosystem And Health Using Lm3-Tan Model In South Korea, Jin Wan Lee, Chung Gil Jung, So Ra Ahn, Seong Joon Kim Jul 2016

Evaluation Of Future Climate Change Impact On Aquatic Ecosystem And Health Using Lm3-Tan Model In South Korea, Jin Wan Lee, Chung Gil Jung, So Ra Ahn, Seong Joon Kim

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Climate change could be one of the main threats faced by aquatic ecosystems and freshwater biodiversity. Recently, LM3-TAN (Land Model 3 Terrestrial and Aquatic Nitrogen) land-based physical, biological, chemical processes model for South Korea was developed to assess the combined effects of direct human influences and future climate change on Aquatic Nitrogen cycling by Korea NIEL (National Institute of Environmental Research). The objective of this study is to analyse the relationship between stream water quality, water temperature, and Trophic Diatom Index (TDI) and Benthic Macroinvertebrate Index (BMI) determined by stream water quality factors. The TDI and BMI monitored 2 times …

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Employing State Of The Art Model Ensembles For Impact Assessment Of Air Pollution, Leif Vogel, Sérgio Faria, Joseph V. Spadaro, Anil Markandya Jul 2016

Employing State Of The Art Model Ensembles For Impact Assessment Of Air Pollution, Leif Vogel, Sérgio Faria, Joseph V. Spadaro, Anil Markandya

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Current annual global estimates of premature deaths from poor air quality are estimated in the range of 2.6-4.4 million, and 2050 projections are expected to double against 2010 levels. In Europe, annual economic burdens are estimated at around 750 bn €. Climate change will further exacerbate air pollution burdens; therefore, a better understanding of the economic impacts on human societies has become an area of intense investigation. European research efforts on the integration of Earth Observation data within modelling frameworks have been carried out within the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate (MACC) project series, running from 2005 till 2015. The …

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Livelihoods Of Local Communities In An Amazonian Floodplain Coping With Global Changes: From Role-Playing Games To Hybrid Simulations To Involve Local Stakeholders In Participatory Foresight Study At Territorial Level, Pierre Biommel, Marie-Paule Bonnet, Emilie Coudel, Eva Haentjens, Cleber Nunes Kraus, Gustavo Melo, Stephanie Nasuti, Christophe Le Page Jul 2016

Livelihoods Of Local Communities In An Amazonian Floodplain Coping With Global Changes: From Role-Playing Games To Hybrid Simulations To Involve Local Stakeholders In Participatory Foresight Study At Territorial Level, Pierre Biommel, Marie-Paule Bonnet, Emilie Coudel, Eva Haentjens, Cleber Nunes Kraus, Gustavo Melo, Stephanie Nasuti, Christophe Le Page

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In the Amazonian floodplains, the local populations living from agricultural activities and fishing, have always coped natural variations, between flood and dry seasons. However, the rhythm and the amplitude of these floods are disturbed nowadays, resulting in great uncertainty for these populations. Biophysics and social scientists have joined hands to help these populations better improve their resilience to such changes. Our initial goal aims to better understand and discuss the impacts of current practices in the long term. To address this, we first turned the perspective around the preoccupations and strategies of local populations and collectively discussed possible future scenarios. …

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Αir Quality In Urban Areas: Urban Air Pollutants, Combined Exposure Management And Planning, Christos Vlachokostas, Nicolas Moussiopoulos Jul 2016

Αir Quality In Urban Areas: Urban Air Pollutants, Combined Exposure Management And Planning, Christos Vlachokostas, Nicolas Moussiopoulos

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The “urban climate” is characterized by numerous environmental pressures such as air and noise pollution, toxic substances or radiation which give justifiable rise to citizens’ worries about possible impacts on public health. The effort to close the loop between health stressors in urban areas is scientifically of major importance and should be brought forward. This paper supports this initiative and presents an integrated exposure assessment for Thessaloniki, Greece. The approach is based on the application of the Combined Environmental Stressors’ Exposure (CENSE) tool. The area under consideration is a densely populated urban environment and presents high levels of environmental health …

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Explicit Cost Accounting For Adaptation, Mitigation And Ecosystem Service Provision In Agriculture, Franz Sinabell, Karin Heinschink, Christoph Tribl Jul 2016

Explicit Cost Accounting For Adaptation, Mitigation And Ecosystem Service Provision In Agriculture, Franz Sinabell, Karin Heinschink, Christoph Tribl

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Farmers, policy makers and scientists are well aware of this problem: obtaining sound cost information for climate change adaptation and mitigation measures in agriculture or ecosystem service provision by agriculture is burdensome. In most cases, data sets are developed for a specific region with a given set of management variants for a baseline period. Adapting such information to another region or adjusting costs to expected future price scenarios requires additional efforts and frequently done an ad-hoc and case by case. A new tool is presented that can be used to identify and analyze the entangled effects of future climate and …

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A Workflow To Model Microbial Loadings In Watersheds, Kurt Wolfe, Rajbir Parmar, Gene Whelan, Gerard F. Laniak, Mike Galvin, Keewook Kim, Marirosa Molina, Richard Zepp, Paul Duda, Dennis D. Keiser Jul 2016

A Workflow To Model Microbial Loadings In Watersheds, Kurt Wolfe, Rajbir Parmar, Gene Whelan, Gerard F. Laniak, Mike Galvin, Keewook Kim, Marirosa Molina, Richard Zepp, Paul Duda, Dennis D. Keiser

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Many watershed models simulate overland and instream microbial fate and transport, but few actually provide loading rates on land surfaces and point sources to the water body network. This paper describes the underlying general equations for microbial loading rates associated with 1) land- applied manure on undeveloped areas from domestic animals; 2) direct shedding on undeveloped lands by domestic animals and wildlife; 3) urban or engineered areas; and 4) point sources that directly discharge to streams from septic systems and shedding by domestic animals. A microbial source module, which houses these formulations, is linked within a workflow containing eight models …

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Socio-Ecological Context Typology To Support Targeting And Upscaling Of Sustainable Land Management Practices In Diverse Global Dryland, Quang Bao Le, Chandrashekhar Biradar, Richard Thomas, Claudio Zucca, Enrico Bonaiuti Jul 2016

Socio-Ecological Context Typology To Support Targeting And Upscaling Of Sustainable Land Management Practices In Diverse Global Dryland, Quang Bao Le, Chandrashekhar Biradar, Richard Thomas, Claudio Zucca, Enrico Bonaiuti

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

It is widely recognized that sustainable land management practices (SLM) are much needed for improving land-based livelihoods of 2.5 billion people living in the dry areas across the globe. Adoption and effectiveness of SLM depend on specific contexts. The high contextual diversity over global drylands makes (1) uniform blanket policies promoting SLM less effective and (2) the synthesis and upscaling of site-based successful lessons difficult. We propose the functional context type (FCT) approach to overcome these challenges by grouping common biophysical, economic and social drivers of land use adoption and change into distinct context types that shape SLM adoption and …

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Intake Fraction And Burden Of Disease Due To Multiple Air Pollutants In A Warsaw Agglomeration, Poland, Piotr Holnicki, Marko Tainio, Andrzej Kałuszko, Zbigniew Nahorski Jul 2016

Intake Fraction And Burden Of Disease Due To Multiple Air Pollutants In A Warsaw Agglomeration, Poland, Piotr Holnicki, Marko Tainio, Andrzej Kałuszko, Zbigniew Nahorski

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Adverse health effects are the most important consequences of air pollution and therefore necessary to be considered in the IAM applications. Urban areas are especially important for such calculations because air pollution can potentially influence a large number of inhabitants. The high spatial variation in both emissions sources and population requires that such calculations are done with high space resolution. In this study, we quantify health burden due to local air pollution in the urban area for the Warsaw Agglomeration, Poland. From different air pollutants we considered particulate matter (PM), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) …

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Integrating Scientific Knowledge, Data And Stakeholder Perceptions For Decision Support, Jean-Luc De Kok, Peter Viaene, Karolien Vermeiren, Maarten Van Der Meulen, Rachel Tiller, Murat Ardelan, Jennifer Bailey, Robert Thorpe, Jonathan Beecham, Sonja Van Leeuwen, Frede Thingstad, Tatiana Margo Tsagaraki, Russell Richards, Can Bizsel, Hugo Salgado Jul 2016

Integrating Scientific Knowledge, Data And Stakeholder Perceptions For Decision Support, Jean-Luc De Kok, Peter Viaene, Karolien Vermeiren, Maarten Van Der Meulen, Rachel Tiller, Murat Ardelan, Jennifer Bailey, Robert Thorpe, Jonathan Beecham, Sonja Van Leeuwen, Frede Thingstad, Tatiana Margo Tsagaraki, Russell Richards, Can Bizsel, Hugo Salgado

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

the marine food web is considered to be a factor of key importance for the global carbon balance. The concept of the ‘Biological Pump’ refers to the mechanism by which CO2 fixed by photosynthesis is transferred to the deep ocean through biologically-driven processes, resulting in sequestration of carbon for a period of decades or longer. Stressors affecting the efficiency of the biological pump include water column stability, sea temperature, acidity, excessive nutrients inputs, overfishing, pollution and other anthropogenic changes. The aim of the EU-FP7 project OCEAN- CERTAIN is to reduce the uncertainties in our understanding of the impacts of these …

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Validation And Application Of An Integrated Air Quality Model: From Source Dispersion To Respiratory Deposition, Vikas Kumar, Francisco Sánchez-Soberón, Joaquim Rovira, Montse Mari, Marta Schuhmacher Jul 2016

Validation And Application Of An Integrated Air Quality Model: From Source Dispersion To Respiratory Deposition, Vikas Kumar, Francisco Sánchez-Soberón, Joaquim Rovira, Montse Mari, Marta Schuhmacher

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Particulate matter (PM) is considered as a harmful air pollutant. Guidelines to calculate human health risk of PM are based on average activity intensity and outdoor concentrations of PM. However, most people in developed countries spend more than 85% of their time indoors, where PM composition and levelscould vary significantly from those found outdoors. To dealwith thisproblem, we present an integrated air qualitymodelling exercise focused on calculating the PM emission, dispersion and concentration out and indoors, as well as its associated health risks. To do so, we applied the dispersion model AERMOD in the Tarragona County, where several PM sources …

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New Approach To Interactive Use Of Energy System Models For Policy Support, Evelina Trutnevyte, Phillip Bernsten Jul 2016

New Approach To Interactive Use Of Energy System Models For Policy Support, Evelina Trutnevyte, Phillip Bernsten

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A typical approach of producing a handful of energy scenarios with energy system models is limited because these scenarios cover only patches of the vast uncertainties and complexities inherent in the energy transition. Such a handful of scenarios is inflexible to serve the needs of the variety of policy makers and stakeholders in a rapidly changing policy arena. Interactive use of energy system models has proved effective for enabling users to browse through many scenarios for insight. Existing interactive tools, such as UK DECC2050 Calculator or Swiss Energyscope, ask users to choose one or several preferred energy scenarios. However, focus …

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The Global Geo Health Data Centre (Gghdc): A Web Service For Human Environmental Exposures, D. Karssenberg, I. Soenario, O. Schmitz, K. De Jong, H. De Raaff, I. Vaartjes, G. Hoek, M. Strak, B. Brunekreef, P. Hessels, F. J. De Groot, D. E. Grobbee, M. J. Dijst Jul 2016

The Global Geo Health Data Centre (Gghdc): A Web Service For Human Environmental Exposures, D. Karssenberg, I. Soenario, O. Schmitz, K. De Jong, H. De Raaff, I. Vaartjes, G. Hoek, M. Strak, B. Brunekreef, P. Hessels, F. J. De Groot, D. E. Grobbee, M. J. Dijst

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

To study environmental health effects, information is required on human environmental exposures, which encompass a wide range of attributes, for instance air pollution, water quality, or fast food restaurant density. Often it is preferable to assess exposure of each individual in a cohort or population, which requires assessment of exposures for large numbers of people. As direct measurement of personal exposure for entire populations is not feasible, exposure needs to be estimated by mapping environmental attributes, integrating observations and statistical or processbased modelling. This spatially and temporally continuous information is then aggregated over the space-time path of each individual resulting …

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Advances In Probabilistic And Parallel Agent-Based Simulation: Modelling Climate Change Adaptation In Agriculture, Christian Troost, Thomas Berger Jul 2016

Advances In Probabilistic And Parallel Agent-Based Simulation: Modelling Climate Change Adaptation In Agriculture, Christian Troost, Thomas Berger

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

MPMAS is a software package for farm-level and agent-based simulation in agriculture that has been applied to a variety of agro-economic and bioeconomic case studies around the world in the last twenty years. We present recent advances to the software and its application that focus on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, massive parallel computing, land market interactions and farm succession. These extensions improve the applicability of agent-based simulation for ex ante assessments of climate adaptation in agriculture.

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Health Impact Of Air Pollution On Italy: Main Findings Of Viias And Med Hiss Projects, Antonio Piersanti, Carla Ancona, Giovanna Berti, Ennio Cadum, Luisella Ciancarella, Ilaria D’Elia, Francesco Forastiere, Gaia Righini Jul 2016

Health Impact Of Air Pollution On Italy: Main Findings Of Viias And Med Hiss Projects, Antonio Piersanti, Carla Ancona, Giovanna Berti, Ennio Cadum, Luisella Ciancarella, Ilaria D’Elia, Francesco Forastiere, Gaia Righini

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The effects of air pollution on human health in Italy have been recently estimated in two different projects with complete national coverage, VIIAS and EU LIFE+ MED HISS. The projects share the methodological approach of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) and the combined use of dispersion models and monitoring networks data, but differ on the exposure assessment and the overall objectives. VIIAS, using sub-municipal census data of population projected on the dispersion model grid, has estimated health outcomes on baseline years (2005 and 2010) and on three scenarios for 2020, in order to evaluate trends and effects of alternative policies. …

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Autoflow© - A Novel Application For Water Resource Management And Climate Change Response Using Smart Technology, Khoi Anh Nguyen, Oz Sahin, Rodney Anthony Stewart, Hong Zhang Jul 2016

Autoflow© - A Novel Application For Water Resource Management And Climate Change Response Using Smart Technology, Khoi Anh Nguyen, Oz Sahin, Rodney Anthony Stewart, Hong Zhang

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Urban areas are increasingly at risk from climate change, with negative impacts predicted for human health, the economy and ecosystems. These risks require responses from cities to improve their resilience. Several analysis platforms have been developed worldwide to help effectively control and response to these impacts from different angles, including water resources management, energy production and consumption management, air pollution control, or other natural resources management. To contribute to this goal, Griffith University in Australia has developed Autoflow©, a smart application for water demand analysis and carbon emission monitoring and prediction. Various advanced mathematical models have been …

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A Scalable Approach To Modelling Health Impacts Of Air Pollution Based On Globally Available Data, Gregor Kiesewetter, Wolfgang Schöpp, Markus Amann Jul 2016

A Scalable Approach To Modelling Health Impacts Of Air Pollution Based On Globally Available Data, Gregor Kiesewetter, Wolfgang Schöpp, Markus Amann

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Integrated assessment of air pollution and its impacts typically requires pre-calculated atmospheric transfer relations on a fine spatial resolution. While such concepts have been applied successfully for Europe and other regions with high data coverage, extending calculations to world regions with low local data availability is challenging and needs to be based on globally available data sets. Here we introduce a scalable approach which has been developed to expand the calculations of health impacts from exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model to (almost) any desired …

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Assessing The Economic Value Of A Regional Air Quality Plan, Elisabetta Angelino, Claudio Carnevale, Roberta Gianfreda, Giorgio Guariso, Guido Lanzani, Guiseppe Maffeis, Enrico Turrini, Marialuisa Volta Jul 2016

Assessing The Economic Value Of A Regional Air Quality Plan, Elisabetta Angelino, Claudio Carnevale, Roberta Gianfreda, Giorgio Guariso, Guido Lanzani, Guiseppe Maffeis, Enrico Turrini, Marialuisa Volta

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

When developing an air quality plan, environmental authorities usually devise a number of individual actions, constituted by the application of both technical (end-of-pipe) and energy efficiency measures. They may range from the incentives to buy less polluting vehicles, to the enforcement of stricter rules on domestic heating. The assessment of the economic effectiveness for the society as a whole of the individual measures and of the overall plan requires a flexible support system able to quickly perform air quality impact evaluations on the specific area. One such system is RIAT+, a software package developed and tested during a series of …

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Determining The Variability Of Population Exposure To Air Pollution While Taking Into Account Personal Mobility – A Case Study For The Uk, S. Reis, M Vieno, R. Beck, E. Carnell, D. Leaver Jul 2016

Determining The Variability Of Population Exposure To Air Pollution While Taking Into Account Personal Mobility – A Case Study For The Uk, S. Reis, M Vieno, R. Beck, E. Carnell, D. Leaver

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The quantification of population level exposure to ambient air pollution is typically based on static population distributions inferred from the postcode of residence, and annual average concentrations of priority air pollutants at that location. Contemporary atmospheric chemistry transport models (ACTMs) are capable of providing air pollution concentration fields with high spatial and temporal resolution, for instance generating 1 km × 1 km gridded maps at hourly time steps. In addition, the 2011 UK Census has generated a novel population data product accounting for the location of the workplace, the so-called ‘workday population’ distribution, which accounts for the location of individuals …

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Modelling With Stakeholders: A Systems Approach For Improved Environmental Decision Making Under Great Uncertainty, Edoardo Bertone, Oz Sahin, Russell Richards, Anne Roiko Jul 2016

Modelling With Stakeholders: A Systems Approach For Improved Environmental Decision Making Under Great Uncertainty, Edoardo Bertone, Oz Sahin, Russell Richards, Anne Roiko

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In this paper an integrated participatory modelling approach is introduced for managing complex water resource systems under great uncertainty due to climatic and non-climatic factors. A number of case studies are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the methodology. The approach includes a range of stakeholders’ engagement activities throughout the modelling process. The first step consists of participatory problem scoping and model conceptualisation, where the modellers work closely with the stakeholders to establish the scope of the work, identify the key variables, determine the system boundaries, and develop an initial conceptual model. Secondly, a structural analysis technique is used to …

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Local And Regional Contributions To Nitrogen Dioxide, Tim Oxley, Helen Apsimon, Rosalind O’Driscoll Jul 2016

Local And Regional Contributions To Nitrogen Dioxide, Tim Oxley, Helen Apsimon, Rosalind O’Driscoll

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

An important application of models is source apportionment, distinguishing the contribution of different sources to pollutant concentrations at critical locations - something which is difficult to deduce from measurements. As illustrated in this paper the UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed with this in mind, with a facility to produce a detailed breakdown of source contributions, indicating clearly the sources to be targeted for abatement and where uncertainties and sensitivity studies may be most important. “Impact factors”, defined as the change in concentration/exposure per unit reduction in emission for each source, are also useful in development of effective …

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Design And Implementation Of Integrated Surveillance And Modelling Systems For Climate- Sensitive Diseases, Michael C. Wimberly, Justin Davis, Geoffrey M. Henebry, Michael B. Hildreth, Yi Liu, Christopher L. Merkord Jul 2016

Design And Implementation Of Integrated Surveillance And Modelling Systems For Climate- Sensitive Diseases, Michael C. Wimberly, Justin Davis, Geoffrey M. Henebry, Michael B. Hildreth, Yi Liu, Christopher L. Merkord

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Climatic variations can have a multitude of impacts on human health, ranging from the direct impacts of extreme heat events to indirect effects on the vectors and hosts that transmit a multitude of infectious diseases. Infectious disease surveillance has traditionally focused on monitoring human cases, and in some instances tracking population sizes and infection rates of arthropod vectors and zoonotic hosts. For climate-sensitive diseases, there is potential to strengthen surveillance and obtain early indicators of future outbreaks by monitoring environmental risk factors using broad-scale sensor networks that include earth-observing satellites as well as ground stations. We highlight the opportunities and …

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Simulating Structural Change In Agriculture: Modelling Farming Households And Farm Succession, Christian Troost, Thomas Berger Jul 2016

Simulating Structural Change In Agriculture: Modelling Farming Households And Farm Succession, Christian Troost, Thomas Berger

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The majority of European farms are family farms. Farm succession, i.e. passing over the responsibility from farm owner and manager to their heir, is an important element of structural change in agriculture. We present a model implementation capturing farming household evolution in an agent- based model and explore the consequences of farm household composition and farm succession on agricultural production, investment and participation in agri-environmental policy schemes.

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