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Farmers As Water Managers In A Changing Climate – Can We Turn Sustainability Research Into Outcomes?, K. B. Matthews, K. L. Blackstock, S. Langan, M. Rivington, D. G. Miller, K. Buchan Jul 2010

Farmers As Water Managers In A Changing Climate – Can We Turn Sustainability Research Into Outcomes?, K. B. Matthews, K. L. Blackstock, S. Langan, M. Rivington, D. G. Miller, K. Buchan

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

How well does research-derived knowledge on sustainability translate into practical improvements in the sustainability of land and water management? This paper reflects on progress being made through the lens of the “Aquarius - Farmers as Water Managers” project part of Interreg IVb. This project seeks to use research-derived knowledge to aid the specification, delivery and evaluation of a flood alleviation scheme that uses natural flow management measures. The paper sets out previous research on the definition of outcomes and places these in the context of the specific criteria being used within the Interreg programme. Interreg provides an opportunity for researchers …

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Environmental Modeling Framework Invasiveness: Analysis And Implications, Wesley Lloyd, Olaf David, James C. Ascough Ii, Ken W. Rojas, Jack R. Carlson, George Leavesley, P. Krause, Timothy R. Green, L.R. Ahuja Jul 2010

Environmental Modeling Framework Invasiveness: Analysis And Implications, Wesley Lloyd, Olaf David, James C. Ascough Ii, Ken W. Rojas, Jack R. Carlson, George Leavesley, P. Krause, Timothy R. Green, L.R. Ahuja

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Environmental modeling frameworks support scientific model development by providing an Application Programming Interface (API) which model developers use to implement models. This paper presents results of an investigation on the framework invasiveness of environmental modeling frameworks. Invasiveness is defined as the quantity of dependencies between model code and the modeling framework. This research investigates relationships between invasiveness and the quality of modeling code. Additionally, we investigate the relationship between invasiveness and two common framework designs (lightweight vs. heavyweight). Five metrics to measure framework invasiveness were proposed and applied to measure invasiveness between model and framework code of several implementations of …

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A Comparison Of Fuzzy, Bayesian And Weighted Average Formulations Of An In-Stream Habitat Suitability Model., C. J. Brookes, Vikas Kumar, S. N. Lane Jul 2010

A Comparison Of Fuzzy, Bayesian And Weighted Average Formulations Of An In-Stream Habitat Suitability Model., C. J. Brookes, Vikas Kumar, S. N. Lane

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Three variations of a simple in-stream habitat suitability model were implementedand the effect on output for one organism at 22 sites on one short section of a river wasexamined. The model uses only two factors, depth and velocity, to calculate quality and a thirdfactor, width to quantify utility. The implementations were based on 3 multi-criteria evaluationapproaches: Weighted Average, Fuzzy Sets and Bayesian probability. There was broadagreement between the formulations but important differences in detail. The model outputsindicate that uncertainty arising from model formulation is significant and can have a bearingon planning decisions. There is a complex interaction between the formulations …

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A New Tool For Integrated And Interactive Sustainability Impact Assessment Of Urban Land Use Changes: The Plurel Iiat, Dagmar Haase, Annette Piorr, Nina Schwarz, Ingo Zasada Jul 2010

A New Tool For Integrated And Interactive Sustainability Impact Assessment Of Urban Land Use Changes: The Plurel Iiat, Dagmar Haase, Annette Piorr, Nina Schwarz, Ingo Zasada

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The new integrated Impact Analysis Tool (iIAT) synthesises the modelling results from the impact analysis of land use changes of the EU-project PLUREL on periurban land use relationships and the effects of peri-urban land use change; www.plurel.net) into one stand-alone tool. It facilitates the integration of manifold aspects of problems of land use (change) and its functions and services related to urbanisation. It further considers conflicts of interest of different stakeholders such as residents, planners or developers within a planning process. The iIAT covers all dimensions of sustainability, namely the economic, the social and the environmental. Based on land use …

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Application Of Life Cycle Analysis (Lca) In Evaluating Energy-Consuming Of Integrated Oxidation Ditch (Iod), Xianchun Tan, Junyi Xu, Sheng Wang, C. Y. Miao Jul 2010

Application Of Life Cycle Analysis (Lca) In Evaluating Energy-Consuming Of Integrated Oxidation Ditch (Iod), Xianchun Tan, Junyi Xu, Sheng Wang, C. Y. Miao

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

With the research on some critical technology going deeply, the problem of technology route and project approach for the saving energy and reducing consumption have become the focus of municipal wastewater treatment process. In this article, LCA (Life Cycle Analysis) is applied to identify and compare the energy consumption of each stage of different technologies in municipal wastewater treatment from the view of whole process. This is carried out after reviewing the condition of energy utilizing of typical technologies in China. And some measures are brought forward to improve the efficiency of energy utilizing. Integrated Oxidation Ditch (IOD) is taken …

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An Agent-Based Model Of Coupled Housing And Land Markets, Nicholas Magliocca, Elena Safirova, Virginia Mcconnell, Margaret Walls Jul 2010

An Agent-Based Model Of Coupled Housing And Land Markets, Nicholas Magliocca, Elena Safirova, Virginia Mcconnell, Margaret Walls

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper describes a spatially disaggregated, economic agent-based model of urban land use that includes explicitly specified and coupled land and housing markets. The three types of agents— consumer, farmer and developer—all make decisions based on underlying economic principles, and heterogeneity of both individuals and the landscape is represented. The model can be used to simulate the conversion of farmland to housing development over time, through the actions of the agents in the land and housing markets. Land and building structures in the housing bundle are treated explicitly, so the model can represent the effects of land and housing prices …

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Exploring Forest Management Practices Using An Agent-Based Model Of Forest Insect Infestations, Liliana Pérez, Suzana Dragicevic Jul 2010

Exploring Forest Management Practices Using An Agent-Based Model Of Forest Insect Infestations, Liliana Pérez, Suzana Dragicevic

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The forests of British Columbia, Canada have undergone an unprecedented Mountain Pine Beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, (MPB) infestation that has resulted in extensive mortality of lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta. The objective of this study is to apply the agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the MPB attack behaviour in order to evaluate how different harvesting policies influence spatial characteristics of the forest and spatial propagation of the MPB infestation over time. The first scenario is the no management action with the natural disturbance process leading the changes of the forest ecosystem. The other two scenarios implement sanitation and salvage harvesting methods. …

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An Agent-Based Model Of Housing Search And Intraurban Migration In The Twin Cities Of Minnesota, Shipeng Sun, Steven M. Manson Jul 2010

An Agent-Based Model Of Housing Search And Intraurban Migration In The Twin Cities Of Minnesota, Shipeng Sun, Steven M. Manson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Intraurban migration defines many neighbourhood dynamics and consequentlyimpacts land use patterns in the long term. Housing location decision-making is a complexprocess involving many features of the housing market that interact with the perceptions ofhome searchers. Although modellers have paid much attention to the prices and utilities ofthe environmental, ecological, and public services associated with housing, the housingsearch process is neglected in many agent-based land use models involving urban housingmarket. The challenge of incorporating housing search partially lies in the prohibitive costof identifying, recording, and quantifying housing search activities at a large scale. Thispaper presents an agent-based model of intraurban migration …

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Parcel Subdivision Automation For Agent-Based Land Use Modelling, Rohan Wickramasuriya, Laurie Chisholm, Marji Puotinen, Nicholas Gill Jul 2010

Parcel Subdivision Automation For Agent-Based Land Use Modelling, Rohan Wickramasuriya, Laurie Chisholm, Marji Puotinen, Nicholas Gill

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

To a significant extent rural Australia is transforming into multifunctionallandscapes. Amenity migration (i.e. movement of people from metropolitan to ruralsettings) is a major driving force of this transition in many areas. However, the effects ofamenity migration on the receiving landscapes are not yet fully understood. Agent-basedland use modelling helps unravel the complex spatio-temporal relationships that affectlandscape response to change from amenity migration. A land subdivision module isessential for a complete agent-based land use model developed for these landscapesbecause the land sold to in-migrants are lots that are subdivided from much larger tracts. Inthis paper we describe a land subdivision automation …

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Climate Change And Long Term Water Availability In Western Australia - An Experimental Projection, M. A. Bari, G. E. Amirthanathan, B. Timbal Jul 2010

Climate Change And Long Term Water Availability In Western Australia - An Experimental Projection, M. A. Bari, G. E. Amirthanathan, B. Timbal

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The population of the Perth-Bunbury region in Western Australia is predicted to increase to3.1 million by 2050. Water supply is a key issue, as below-average rainfall since the mid-1970s has led to about40% decline in the streamflow. General Circulation Models (GCMs) project a further decrease in rainfall leadingto diminished water resources in the future and posing a threat to water supply and the environment. In thisexperimental study we assess the impact of climate change at Serpentine Reservoir using data from elevenGCMs which contributed to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report.Data from two emission scenarios (A2 and …

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Validation And Sensitivity Analysis Of Catchment Runoff And Erosion Simulation Technology (Crest): A Gis-Assisted Soil Erosion Model At Watershed Level, Reynaldo L. Lanuza, Eduardo P. Paningbatan Jr Jul 2010

Validation And Sensitivity Analysis Of Catchment Runoff And Erosion Simulation Technology (Crest): A Gis-Assisted Soil Erosion Model At Watershed Level, Reynaldo L. Lanuza, Eduardo P. Paningbatan Jr

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Most erosion models have been developed based on a plot scale and have limited application to a watershed due to the differences in scale. In order to address this limitation, a GIS-assisted methodology for modeling soil erosion was developed using PCRaster to predict the rate of soil erosion at watershed level and identify the location of erosion prone areas. The GIS-assisted hydrology and erosion models were validated at Tanghaga Watershed using the observed values from previous experiment. The predicted peak rates, Qp, showed a highly significant relationship with the observed Qp, with an r2 value of 0.75. For soil loss …

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Integrated Modelling For The Conservation Of River Ecosystems: Progress In The South Australian River Murray, Brett A. Bryan, I. Overton, A. Higgins, K. Holland, R. E. Lester, D. King Jul 2010

Integrated Modelling For The Conservation Of River Ecosystems: Progress In The South Australian River Murray, Brett A. Bryan, I. Overton, A. Higgins, K. Holland, R. E. Lester, D. King

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Investment in water infrastructure and management can enhance the ecological health of water-dependent ecosystems along highly regulated rivers. Investment in new flow-control infrastructure and management of both existing and new infrastructure can help return natural environmental flows to achieve healthy and representative areas of river ecosystems. In this paper, we developed an integrated model to cost-effectively restore environmental flows and ecosystem health in the River Murray in South Australia. The model integrates a range of hydrological, ecological, economic, and social components. A hydrological model is used to identify spatial and temporal inundation dynamics given flow rates and weir operation. Ecological …

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Climate Change And Long Term Water Availability In Western Australia - An Experimental Projection, M. A. Bari, G. E. Amirthanathan, B. Timbal Jul 2010

Climate Change And Long Term Water Availability In Western Australia - An Experimental Projection, M. A. Bari, G. E. Amirthanathan, B. Timbal

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The population of the Perth-Bunbury region in Western Australia is predicted to increase to3.1 million by 2050. Water supply is a key issue, as below-average rainfall since the mid-1970s has led to about40% decline in the streamflow. General Circulation Models (GCMs) project a further decrease in rainfall leadingto diminished water resources in the future and posing a threat to water supply and the environment. In thisexperimental study we assess the impact of climate change at Serpentine Reservoir using data from elevenGCMs which contributed to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report.Data from two emission scenarios (A2 and …

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Integrated Modelling For The Conservation Of River Ecosystems: Progress In The South Australian River Murray, Brett A. Bryan, I. Overton, A. Higgins, K. Holland, R. E. Lester, D. King Jul 2010

Integrated Modelling For The Conservation Of River Ecosystems: Progress In The South Australian River Murray, Brett A. Bryan, I. Overton, A. Higgins, K. Holland, R. E. Lester, D. King

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Investment in water infrastructure and management can enhance the ecological health of water-dependent ecosystems along highly regulated rivers. Investment in new flow-control infrastructure and management of both existing and new infrastructure can help return natural environmental flows to achieve healthy and representative areas of river ecosystems. In this paper, we developed an integrated model to cost-effectively restore environmental flows and ecosystem health in the River Murray in South Australia. The model integrates a range of hydrological, ecological, economic, and social components. A hydrological model is used to identify spatial and temporal inundation dynamics given flow rates and weir operation. Ecological …

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Remote Sensing Time Series For Modeling Invasive Species Distribution: A Case Study Of Tamarix Spp. In The Us And Mexico, Anna F. Cord, Doris Klein, Stefan Dech Jul 2010

Remote Sensing Time Series For Modeling Invasive Species Distribution: A Case Study Of Tamarix Spp. In The Us And Mexico, Anna F. Cord, Doris Klein, Stefan Dech

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Detecting invasive species and predicting their potential distribution are crucial to coordinate management responses. Remote sensing data are now available in several spatial and temporal resolutions and can supply environmental models with additional information. This study uses the Maximum Entropy algorithm to model the current distribution of the saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) in the US and Mexico and to identify suitable habitats, both already inhabited and not yet occupied. Tamarisk is restricted to specific habitats such as riparian zones, wetlands and agricultural or disturbed areas, which are typically not only characterized by climate. To describe vegetation phenology and thermal seasonality in …

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An Agent Based Model Of Climate Change And Conflict Among Pastoralists In East Africa, Atesmachew B. Hailegiorgis, William G. Kennedy, Mark Rouleau, Jeffrey K. Bassett, Mark Coletti, Gabriel C. Balan, Tim Gulden Jul 2010

An Agent Based Model Of Climate Change And Conflict Among Pastoralists In East Africa, Atesmachew B. Hailegiorgis, William G. Kennedy, Mark Rouleau, Jeffrey K. Bassett, Mark Coletti, Gabriel C. Balan, Tim Gulden

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

We present an agent-based model of human-environment interaction and conflict in East Africa using the MASON agent-based simulation environment. Our model focuses on the complex interaction of pastoral groups with their environment and other emerging external actors. Our model supports the observation that increased seasonal rainfall variability and droughts create tremendous stress on pastoralists groups and challenges their long-term resilience and adaptive response mechanisms.

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Using 3pg+ To Simulate Longterm Growth And Transpiration In Eucalyptus Regnans Forests, Paul Feikema, Jim Morris, Craig Beverly, Patrick N. J. Lane, Tom Baker Jul 2010

Using 3pg+ To Simulate Longterm Growth And Transpiration In Eucalyptus Regnans Forests, Paul Feikema, Jim Morris, Craig Beverly, Patrick N. J. Lane, Tom Baker

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The amount of water derived from forested water supply catchments depends largely on forest evapotranspiration, which in turn depends on forest age and structure. There is increasing interest to predict the effects of forest disturbance (e.g. fire) and management (e.g. thinning) on streamflow. One approach is to incorporate present knowledge of water use into process-based models that simultaneously predict water use and growth of forests. We take 3PG+, an enhanced version of the 3PG forest growth model with a daily multi-layered water balance, and validate it for multi-species Eucalyptus regnans forests. The model has to date been applied to single-species …

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Integrated Agricultural System Modeling Using Oms 3: Component Driven Stream Flow And Nutrient Dynamics Simulations, James C. Ascough Ii, Olaf David, P. Krause, Manfred Fink, S. Kralisch, H. Kipka, Marcel Wetzel Jul 2010

Integrated Agricultural System Modeling Using Oms 3: Component Driven Stream Flow And Nutrient Dynamics Simulations, James C. Ascough Ii, Olaf David, P. Krause, Manfred Fink, S. Kralisch, H. Kipka, Marcel Wetzel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This study reports on the integration of the European J2K-S model (a component-based system for fully distributed simulation of water balance and N dynamics in large watersheds) under the Object Modeling System 3 (OMS3) environmental modeling framework and subsequent evaluation of OMS3/J2K-S performance on the Cedar Creek Watershed (CCW) in northeastern Indiana, USA. Uncalibrated model performance for daily and monthly stream flow response was assessed using Nash- Sutcliffe model efficiency (ENS) and percent bias (PBIAS) model evaluation coefficients. Simulations for nitrogen (N) loadings to Cedar Creek were also performed; however, the OMS3/J2K-S N dynamics sub-model is still undergoing testing so …

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Exploring The Choice Of Decision Making Method In An Agent Based Model Of Land Use Change, A. R. Cabrera, P. J. Deadman, E. S. Brondizio, M. Pinedo-Vasquez Jul 2010

Exploring The Choice Of Decision Making Method In An Agent Based Model Of Land Use Change, A. R. Cabrera, P. J. Deadman, E. S. Brondizio, M. Pinedo-Vasquez

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In agent-based models of land use/cover change (ABM/LUCC), small changes in micro-level decision-making methods used by agents may significantly affect macro-level outcomes. Yet, the implications of choosing a specific decision making model are seldom explored in ABM/LUCC studies. This paper discusses an ABM/LUCC modelling study of smallholder farming households in the Amazonian varzea in Maraj´o Island, Brazil. These agents represent the 21 households within the community of Paricatuba. Farmers in this community cultivate acai as a primary source of income, in addition to other farming and economic activities such as offsite employment. In the model, agents make annual decisions to …

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The Northern-Global Climate Change Adaptation Dialogue, J. I. Maclellan Jul 2010

The Northern-Global Climate Change Adaptation Dialogue, J. I. Maclellan

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Although climate change adaptation can occur over various political, social, and institutionalscales, the majority of adaptation decisions take place at the local level where an intimate understanding ofthe particularities of local circumstances (i.e. successful responses to past extremes events) exist alongsidea lack of formalised expertise in projecting and analyzing future possibilities. The relationship between theexperts who produce counterfactual knowledge, and the individuals who apply it, is thus central to thechallenge of responding to climate change successfully. I present a deliberately polarized caricature of thisrelationship in an attempt to facilitate knowledge exchange (i.e. to identify barriers to knowledgeexchange). Through bibliometric analysis …

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Lessons Learnt On Requirement Analyses To Establish New Model Systems: Prerequisites To Assure Model Use Towards Policy Outcome, Stefan Sieber, Karen Tscherning, Klaus Müller, P. J. F. M. Verweij, Torbjörn Jansson Jul 2010

Lessons Learnt On Requirement Analyses To Establish New Model Systems: Prerequisites To Assure Model Use Towards Policy Outcome, Stefan Sieber, Karen Tscherning, Klaus Müller, P. J. F. M. Verweij, Torbjörn Jansson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The objective of the paper is to evaluate the applied non-standardised Model Requirement Analysis (MRA). Using the presented methods and results of the MRA, we discuss the suitability for appropriate ways to improve applied methods using the example of the Sustainability Impact Assessment Tools (SIAT). Special focus is given to the prerequisites of project design to assure model use towards model outcome. The applied methods of the MRA consist of evolutionary prototyping, which provides a way to structure the subsequent group discussions with end-users. The results first summarise the conducted interactions with potential end-users and evaluate the usefulness of conducting …

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Qualitative Reasoning In Participatory Spatial Planning: The Use Of Osiris In The Yellow River Delta, P. J. F. M. Verweij, M. Van Eupen, J. Roos-Klein Lankhorst, W. Nieuwenhuizen Jul 2010

Qualitative Reasoning In Participatory Spatial Planning: The Use Of Osiris In The Yellow River Delta, P. J. F. M. Verweij, M. Van Eupen, J. Roos-Klein Lankhorst, W. Nieuwenhuizen

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Societies see the emergence of new governance concepts, based on the assumption that processes of planning and decision taking are no longer hierarchical but the product of complex interactions between governmental and nongovernmental organizations, and the general public (the model of ‘co-production of knowledge’; Callon, 1999). All involved are seeking to influence the collectively binding decisions that have consequences for their interests. To account for this changing governance and the increased number of stakeholders involved, decisions need to be assessed in an integrated context. This paper discusses the OSIRIS modeling environment for knowledge rule based reasoning on spatial information. The …

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A Modelling Platform For Complex Socioecosystems: An Application To Freshwater Management In Coastal Zones, Johanna Ballé-Béganton, M. Lample, Cédric Bacher, A. Fiandrino, V. Guillard, T. Laugier, Rémi Mongruel, J. A. Pérez Agúndez Jul 2010

A Modelling Platform For Complex Socioecosystems: An Application To Freshwater Management In Coastal Zones, Johanna Ballé-Béganton, M. Lample, Cédric Bacher, A. Fiandrino, V. Guillard, T. Laugier, Rémi Mongruel, J. A. Pérez Agúndez

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Providing deliberation support tools for freshwater management in coastal zones requires complex socio-ecosystem modelling in a joint effort from research scientists, software engineers and stakeholders. The SPICOSA System Approach Framework provides guidelines for the building of dynamic models for a better comprehension of the variety of processes and issues regarding coastal management. A modular platform was developed using the ExtendSim® software. We explore how the SPICOSA/Extend platform supports participatory modelling by offering the necessary tools for the integration of multidisciplinary knowledge and how the use of a common platform facilitates dialog between research scientists of varied backgrounds. Graphical tools developed …

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Using 3pg+ To Simulate Longterm Growth And Transpiration In Eucalyptus Regnans Forests, Paul Feikema, Jim Morris, Craig Beverly, Patrick N. J. Lane, Tom Baker Jul 2010

Using 3pg+ To Simulate Longterm Growth And Transpiration In Eucalyptus Regnans Forests, Paul Feikema, Jim Morris, Craig Beverly, Patrick N. J. Lane, Tom Baker

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The amount of water derived from forested water supply catchments depends largely on forest evapotranspiration, which in turn depends on forest age and structure. There is increasing interest to predict the effects of forest disturbance (e.g. fire) and management (e.g. thinning) on streamflow. One approach is to incorporate present knowledge of water use into process-based models that simultaneously predict water use and growth of forests. We take 3PG+, an enhanced version of the 3PG forest growth model with a daily multi-layered water balance, and validate it for multi-species Eucalyptus regnans forests. The model has to date been applied to single-species …

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Unexpected Side-Effects Of Winter Feeding: Learning From Mahalanobis Distances Factor Analysis In The Case Of Red-Crowned Cranes In Hokkaido, Japan, Yi-Liang Kuo Jul 2010

Unexpected Side-Effects Of Winter Feeding: Learning From Mahalanobis Distances Factor Analysis In The Case Of Red-Crowned Cranes In Hokkaido, Japan, Yi-Liang Kuo

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Winter feeding has become a critical approach to sustain animals in high latitude,but little literature has investigated possible side-effects in terms of ecological niches. Toexplore whether winter feeding might affect species distributions at regional scale, weemployed a novel spatial model, Mahalanobis Distances Factor Analysis, in the case ofRed-crowned Cranes (Grus japonensis) in Hokkaido, Japan. This model features betterprediction ability with more explicit ecological significance compared to conventionalmethods. Furthermore, particularly innovative is that axes are used to define ecologicalniches, with a minimal set of habitual variables to calculate habitat suitability in thealgorithm. In results, winter feeding seemed to considerably impact the …

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An Agent-Based Model Of Housing Search And Intraurban Migration In The Twin Cities Of Minnesota, Shipeng Sun, Steven M. Manson Jul 2010

An Agent-Based Model Of Housing Search And Intraurban Migration In The Twin Cities Of Minnesota, Shipeng Sun, Steven M. Manson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Intraurban migration defines many neighbourhood dynamics and consequentlyimpacts land use patterns in the long term. Housing location decision-making is a complexprocess involving many features of the housing market that interact with the perceptions ofhome searchers. Although modellers have paid much attention to the prices and utilities ofthe environmental, ecological, and public services associated with housing, the housingsearch process is neglected in many agent-based land use models involving urban housingmarket. The challenge of incorporating housing search partially lies in the prohibitive costof identifying, recording, and quantifying housing search activities at a large scale. Thispaper presents an agent-based model of intraurban migration …

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Climate Change Impact On Agriculture: Devils Lake Basin, Andrei Kirilenko Jul 2010

Climate Change Impact On Agriculture: Devils Lake Basin, Andrei Kirilenko

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Northern Great Plains is one of the most important agricultural regionsworldwide. This is also a region expected to be heavily impacted by climate change. Thisand two other papers in this session concentrate on studying climate change impacts onwater resources of the region, and on the impacts of these changes on agriculture. Themajor focus of our interest is Devils Lake watershed in North Dakota. The watershed islocated in the Northern Great Plains, the area where intensive agriculture has caused anextreme change in land use and land cover, followed by substantial water pollution. DevilsLake is an endorheic (terminal) lake, which makes it …

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Agent-Based Modeling Of A Rental Market For Agricultural Land In The Argentine Pampas, Federico Bert, Guillermo Podestá, Santiago Rovere, Michael North, Angel Menéndez, Carlos Laciana, Charles Macal, Elke Weber, Pamela Sydelko Jul 2010

Agent-Based Modeling Of A Rental Market For Agricultural Land In The Argentine Pampas, Federico Bert, Guillermo Podestá, Santiago Rovere, Michael North, Angel Menéndez, Carlos Laciana, Charles Macal, Elke Weber, Pamela Sydelko

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

More than half of land in the Argentine Pampas is cropped by tenants. Theimportance of production on rented land motivated development of a LAnd Rental MArket(LARMA) model with endogenous formation of Land Rental Price (LRP). LARMA is a“hybrid” model that relies partly on easy-to-implement concepts from neoclassicaleconomics, but addresses drawbacks of this approach by being integrated into an agentbasedmodel that involves heterogeneous agents interacting in a dynamic environment.LRP formation assumes economic equilibrium: it is the price at which supply of rental landarea equals land demand. LRP depends on (a) the “willing to accept” price (WTAP) ofowners renting out land due …

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Lessons Learnt On Requirement Analyses To Establish New Model Systems: Prerequisites To Assure Model Use Towards Policy Outcome, Stefan Sieber, Karen Tscherning, Klaus Müller, P. J. F. M. Verweij, Torbjörn Jansson Jul 2010

Lessons Learnt On Requirement Analyses To Establish New Model Systems: Prerequisites To Assure Model Use Towards Policy Outcome, Stefan Sieber, Karen Tscherning, Klaus Müller, P. J. F. M. Verweij, Torbjörn Jansson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The objective of the paper is to evaluate the applied non-standardised Model Requirement Analysis (MRA). Using the presented methods and results of the MRA, we discuss the suitability for appropriate ways to improve applied methods using the example of the Sustainability Impact Assessment Tools (SIAT). Special focus is given to the prerequisites of project design to assure model use towards model outcome. The applied methods of the MRA consist of evolutionary prototyping, which provides a way to structure the subsequent group discussions with end-users. The results first summarise the conducted interactions with potential end-users and evaluate the usefulness of conducting …

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Scenarios To Investigate The Effect Of Wetland Position In A Watershed On Nutrient Loadings, S. J. Melles, G. Benoy, B. Booty, Luis F. León, J. Vanrobaeys, I. Wong Jul 2010

Scenarios To Investigate The Effect Of Wetland Position In A Watershed On Nutrient Loadings, S. J. Melles, G. Benoy, B. Booty, Luis F. León, J. Vanrobaeys, I. Wong

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Lake Winnipeg is Canada’s 6th largest freshwater lake and is subject to an increasing rate of eutrophication as a result of nonpoint source pollution from numerous sources including farms and municipal wastewaters. We examine scenarios designed to compare the relative effects of wetland restoration and position on modelled nutrient loadings to Lake Winnipeg from a pilot watershed in the Lake’s Basin, the La Salle River watershed. Scenarios were examined using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT is a well-known watershed scale hydrologic model designed to assess non-point source pollution loadings to contributing streams across a wide range of …

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