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Game Theory Framework To Evaluate Nuclear Deterrence, Michael A. Cevallos
Game Theory Framework To Evaluate Nuclear Deterrence, Michael A. Cevallos
Theses and Dissertations
This research game theory framework evaluates the resilience of nuclear deterrence options between two players. We use lexicographic prioritization to value four priorities of political, military, economic, and civilian casualties. The value order may be varied. We demonstrate our approach with six player choices of no nuclear strike, demonstration, counterforce, tactical military, economic, or countervalue strike. We use game theory to construct and analyze the resulting damage matrix. We conclude that credible deterrence requires having at least equivalent offensive damage capabilities.
The Impact Of Visual Feedback And Control Configuration On Pilot-Aircraft Interface Using Head Tracking Technology, Christopher M. Arnold
The Impact Of Visual Feedback And Control Configuration On Pilot-Aircraft Interface Using Head Tracking Technology, Christopher M. Arnold
Theses and Dissertations
Traditional control mechanisms restrict human input on the displays in 5th generation aircraft. This research explored methods for enhancing pilot interaction with large, information dense cockpit displays; specifically, the effects of visual feedback and control button configuration when augmenting cursor control with head tracking technology. Previous studies demonstrated that head tracking can be combined with traditional cursor control to decrease selection times but can increase pilot mental and physical workload. A human subject experiment was performed to evaluate two control button configurations and three visual feedback conditions. A Fitts Law analysis was performed to create predictive models of selection time …
The Cyber Wargame Commodity Course Of Action Automated Analysis Method, Alex Hoffendahl
The Cyber Wargame Commodity Course Of Action Automated Analysis Method, Alex Hoffendahl
Theses and Dissertations
In the modern operational landscape, strategic decisions are made and executed, under uncertain conditions, with many potential constraints and limited information. The end goal of these decisions is to minimize and mitigate the effect of adversarial threats, which may or may not act in line with previous assumptions. Wargaming is a powerful tool that allows for the practical implementation of theoretical knowledge into real-world scenarios, enhancing decision-makers critical thinking and problem solving skills. Furthermore, including cyber-effects in a wargame leads to a broader decision scope for an entire operation. This research aims to enhance the analytical capabilities and overall usability …
A Thematic And Reference Analysis Of Touchless Technologies, Eric R. Curia
A Thematic And Reference Analysis Of Touchless Technologies, Eric R. Curia
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this research is to explore the utility and current state of touchless technologies. Five categories of technologies are identified as a result of collecting and reviewing literature: facial/biometric recognition, gesture recognition, touchless sensing, personal devices, and voice recognition. A thematic analysis was conducted to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of the five categories. A reference analysis was also conducted to determine the similarities between articles in each category. Touchless sensing showed to have the most advantages and least similar references. Gesture recognition was the opposite. Comparing analyses shows more reliable technology types are more beneficial and diverse.
Magnetic Navigation Using Online Calibration Filter Analysis, Jonnathan D. Bonifaz
Magnetic Navigation Using Online Calibration Filter Analysis, Jonnathan D. Bonifaz
Theses and Dissertations
Magnetic navigation using the Earth’s magnetic anomaly field has proven to be a promising alternative that can provide coverage for a navigation system. This research demonstrates a magnetic navigation system using an extended Kalman filter (EKF) to aid an aircraft’s inertial navigation system (INS). Traditional magnetic anomaly navigation uses a “static calibration method,” which takes post-processed data to calibrate, obtaining the Tolles-Lawson coefficients needed for magnetic anomaly navigation filter compensation. These coefficients are constant and may cause drifts in the navigation filter if not re-calibrated. The online calibration method continuously updates the Tolles-Lawson coefficients as a filter state, reducing the …
Applying Models Of Circadian Stimulus To Explore Ideal Lighting Configurations, Alexander J. Price
Applying Models Of Circadian Stimulus To Explore Ideal Lighting Configurations, Alexander J. Price
Theses and Dissertations
Increased levels of time are spent indoors, decreasing human interaction with nature and degrading photoentrainment, the synchronization of circadian rhythms with daylight variation. Military imagery analysts, among other professionals, are required to work in low light level environments to limit power consumption or increase contrast on display screens to improve detail detection. Insufficient exposure to light in these environments results in inadequate photoentrainment which is associated with degraded alertness and negative health effects. Recent research has shown that both the illuminance (i.e., perceived intensity) and wavelength of light affect photoentrainment. Simultaneously, modern lighting technologies have improved our ability to construct …
Accelerating Transition To Production By Manufacturing Readiness Focus During Development, William K. Duncan
Accelerating Transition To Production By Manufacturing Readiness Focus During Development, William K. Duncan
Theses and Dissertations
The Department of Defense has adopted management tools, such as Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRLs), which seek to address issues that have delayed the transition to production and delivery of deployment-ready systems. The MRL scale and assessment process institutes periodic reviews of products during the acquisition process. Specifically, MRLs provide a scale to measure, and importantly communicate, progress by evaluating and summarizing multiple aspects of product maturity. Unfortunately, issues are often identified during the periodic assessments which, if addressed earlier, would have further streamlined product delivery. The current research applies Model Based System Engineering tools to analyze and refine organizational structures …
Improving Task-Operator Analysis For Training Through The Integration Of Human Learning Taxonomies And Systems Engineering Models, James M. Earley
Improving Task-Operator Analysis For Training Through The Integration Of Human Learning Taxonomies And Systems Engineering Models, James M. Earley
Theses and Dissertations
Training is a critical part of force sustainment, but the life-cycle cost of recurring training can be quite high. Further, the promotion of the Multi-Capable Airman (MCA) concept leads to questions on how best to train airmen on tasks outside of their core career field. The MCA concept, coupled with continued increase of technology effectiveness, incentivize the replacement of formerly in-residence-only training with distance training that enables Just-in-Time (JIT) learning. However, effective implementation of the MCA concept may also require adaptive training which considers the knowledge, skills, and attitudes (KSAs) developed by a trainee within their core career field when …
Development Of A Methodology For The Quantification Of Reaerosolization Of A Biological Contaminant Surrogate Particle From Military Uniform Fabric, George D. Cooksey
Development Of A Methodology For The Quantification Of Reaerosolization Of A Biological Contaminant Surrogate Particle From Military Uniform Fabric, George D. Cooksey
Theses and Dissertations
During a mass casualty medical evacuation after a bioaerosol attack, a decontamination method is needed that is effective at both decontamination and preventing the secondary hazard of biological particles reaerosolizing from contaminated clothing. However, neither the efficacy of current decontamination methods nor the risk of biological particle reaerosolization is significantly explored in existing literature. The goals of this thesis were to develop a repeatable methodology to quantify the reaerosolization of a biological contaminate off Airman Battle Uniform (ABU) fabric swatches, and to test the efficacy of one decontamination method (high-volume, low-pressure water) using 1 mpolystyrene latex (PSL) spheres as a …
A Framework For Assessing Facility-Level Vulnerability And Risk To Extreme Weather Events, Blake A. Gawlik
A Framework For Assessing Facility-Level Vulnerability And Risk To Extreme Weather Events, Blake A. Gawlik
Theses and Dissertations
Intensifying extreme weather events, tied to the rise in the global average temperature, put global built infrastructure at risk. This presents a daunting challenge for organizational leaders who are tasked to determine how best to adapt current infrastructure to uncertain future events. To develop adaptation plans and policies, vulnerability and risk must be downscaled to an actionable scale, such that planners, designers, and engineers can make adaptation recommendations. However, previous research has largely assessed risk at coarser scales, e.g., regional, national, or global. These assessments are informative, but do not help those tasked to lead adaptation to make detailed, actionable …
Investigating The Relationship Of Preventive And Corrective Maintenance In Chiller Assets Using Linear Regression Analysis, Jacob A. Franke
Investigating The Relationship Of Preventive And Corrective Maintenance In Chiller Assets Using Linear Regression Analysis, Jacob A. Franke
Theses and Dissertations
Asset managers must balance maintenance plans between preventive (PM) and corrective maintenance (CM). While PM plans have been a staple for decades, the benefits achieved have not been thoroughly examined at the asset specific level. This study focuses on the U.S. Air Force chiller portfolio to better understand the relationship between PM and CM, utilizing multiple stages of linear regression modeling and data from 14 US Air Force installations. PM and CM were found to be positively correlated, with PM accounting for relatively small portions of the variance experienced in CM. This study reveals the value of standardized data collection …
Airworthiness Decision Factors In The Us Air Force, Derek N. Dennis
Airworthiness Decision Factors In The Us Air Force, Derek N. Dennis
Theses and Dissertations
There are multiple airworthiness (AW) certification paths for aircraft platforms and their modifications. Specifically, military commercial derivative aircraft (MCDA) have a unique opportunity to pursue either FAA certification, military certification or a combination of both. Policy tells MCDA programs to pursue FAA certification to the maximum extent possible, however, the policy lacks clarity regarding where that extent ends. This concept of extent encompasses multiple factors and the choice of an AW basis is a complex decision. Under ideal conditions the decision maker, the program manager, has the experience and insight to support their decision, however, this is not always the …
Ground Vehicle Navigation With Depth Camera And Tracking Camera, Hongseok Kim
Ground Vehicle Navigation With Depth Camera And Tracking Camera, Hongseok Kim
Theses and Dissertations
The aim of this research is to provide autonomous navigation of a 4 wheel vehicle using commercial, off-the-shelf depth and tracking cameras. Some sensitive operations need accuracy within a few inches of navigation ability for indoor or outdoor scenarios where GPS signals are not available. Combination of the Visual Odometry (VO), Distance-Depth (D-D), and Object Detection data from the cameras can be used for accurate navigation and object avoidance. The Intel RealSense D435i, a depth camera, generates depth measurements and the relative position vector of an object. The Intel RealSense T265, a tracking camera, generates its own coordinate system and …
A Scientometric Analysis Of Smart Sensors In Facility Management And Applications In Air Force Operations, Joseph-Thomas H. Lehotsky
A Scientometric Analysis Of Smart Sensors In Facility Management And Applications In Air Force Operations, Joseph-Thomas H. Lehotsky
Theses and Dissertations
To investigate the areas which smart sensors can be implemented to assist facility managers to optimize limited resources, this research consists of a scientometric analysis to identify the areas of research quantitatively and qualitatively. Existing literature related to smart sensors in facility management operations were compiled and trends were analyzed to determine the ways in which researchers have been applying this technology. The title, abstracts, and keyword were used to perform frequency, networking, and clustering analysis. This research effort serves to provide ways in which Air Force installations can implement smart sensors in a way which fulfills the initiatives posed …
Climate Change Risk To Coastal Airfield Stormwater Systems, Jedidiah R. Langlois
Climate Change Risk To Coastal Airfield Stormwater Systems, Jedidiah R. Langlois
Theses and Dissertations
Climate change is resulting in rising sea levels and increased rainfall, posing new challenges to stormwater management, particularly along coastlines. The airfield stormwater systems of Tyndall Air Force Base discharge directly into an interior bay of the Gulf of Mexico through tidal canals and ditches, creating a risk of system inundation from high tidewater conditions from sea-level rise (SLR). This study explores the performance and consequences of an inundated stormwater system from SLR during rainfall events using the EPA’s Stormwater Management Model (SWMM). One hundred and fifty-three combinations of SLR and return year storms were applied to a model of …
Developing An Adaptable Best Value Contractor Selection Tool For Federal Construction Projects, Robert B. Kitson
Developing An Adaptable Best Value Contractor Selection Tool For Federal Construction Projects, Robert B. Kitson
Theses and Dissertations
Currently, there is no Air Force-wide best practice or standard for using an other-than lowest price source selection process for construction projects. Installations often award contracts using Lowest Price Technically Acceptable (LPTA) because of perceived cost and time savings. However, a heavy reliance on LPTA often leads to long-term decreases in quality and value. To allow the Air Force to receive the best value for its construction funding, a simple and adaptable tool was developed that allows installations to pursue contractor selection for construction projects by other-than lowest price methods. This research conducted a systematic literature review to obtain a …
A Post-Disaster Construction Portfolio Optimization Framework For Tyndall Afb Rebuild Post Hurricane Michael, Andre J. May
A Post-Disaster Construction Portfolio Optimization Framework For Tyndall Afb Rebuild Post Hurricane Michael, Andre J. May
Theses and Dissertations
Natural disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis, and extreme flooding cause severe social and economic disruptions. Restoration of social and revenue-generating services often requires extensive reconstruction, from the facility to the campus scale. For multi-facility portfolios, decision-makers must prioritize post-disaster reconstruction activities appropriately to ensure facilities and infrastructure are restored. In addition, any expansion or new construction initiatives are ideally completed in order of decision-maker and community preference. Most post-disaster optimization and decision framework research consider a single stakeholder as guiding decisions related to a project portfolio. However, these portfolio prioritization frameworks ignore the effect of multiple stakeholders and competing …
A Critical Review Of Climate Change On Coastal Infrastructure Systems, Gregory J. Howland Jr.
A Critical Review Of Climate Change On Coastal Infrastructure Systems, Gregory J. Howland Jr.
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis is a response to climate threats identified by DoD report on Climate Change in 2019. A critical review of climate change literature related to coastal infrastructure was conducted to synthesize past research and to inform future research. This review intends to inform how climate change may impact infrastructure systems, how those impacts are evaluated, can the investigation be improved, and what can stakeholders learn from the outcomes. The end goal is to find climate change mitigation strategies and adaptation measures, or identify the easiest path to get to that end. The compiled information will inform civilian and military …
Characterizing Complex-Valued Neural Network Model Approximations Of 4-Input 4-Output Complex-Valued Reference Block Models, Larry C. Llewellyn Ii
Characterizing Complex-Valued Neural Network Model Approximations Of 4-Input 4-Output Complex-Valued Reference Block Models, Larry C. Llewellyn Ii
Theses and Dissertations
System simulation models are often decomposed and abstracted as a collection of interconnected subsystem block models to facilitate system understanding, design, and analysis. Each subsystem block model contains mathematical functions that receive, process, and transmit signals that are modeled as real numbers, complex numbers, and/or logic values. This dissertation evaluates the use of a single two-layer complex-valued neural network model to approximate 4-input, 4-output subsystem reference block models in terms of accuracy, performance, and error. The research is novel in that it uses a neural network for continuous function approximation instead of data categorization; it uses a neural network designed …
Hydrologic Profiles And Geospatial Trend Analysis Evaluating Recurrent Flooding At Coastal U.S. Air Force Installations, Dylan D. Bechen
Hydrologic Profiles And Geospatial Trend Analysis Evaluating Recurrent Flooding At Coastal U.S. Air Force Installations, Dylan D. Bechen
Theses and Dissertations
Military installations are exposed to numerous threats, including a changing climate and the risk of recurrent flooding. The four components of recurrent flooding are sea-level rise, tidal fluctuations, storm surges, and precipitation. This research analyzed 40 years of historical precipitation and tidal data at 17 coastal U.S. Air Force installations using indicators of both peak and threshold exceedances to identify long-term temporal trends in the hydrologic components that make up recurrent flood risk, establishing an installation’s “hydrologic profile” which can be used to better inform decision makers when evaluating portfolio-wide adaptation strategies and prioritization of long-term infrastructure investments.
Developing A Methodology For Analyzing Educational Offerings Using Competency Descriptors, Andrew G. Lowe
Developing A Methodology For Analyzing Educational Offerings Using Competency Descriptors, Andrew G. Lowe
Theses and Dissertations
The United States Air Force needs to ensure its Airmen are receiving the best possible education so that they can perform their jobs as effectively as possible. One way to improve the evaluation and development of its Airmen is to incorporate the use of competencies to develop standards for performance and use competency-based education principles to improve the quality of education delivered to the Airmen. One of the educational centers of the United States Air Force is The Civil Engineer School. However, The Civil Engineer School needs a way to evaluate its current coursework on how well it develops competencies …
Analysis Of Cost And Schedule Estimation Trends For Major Defense Acquisition Programs, Sammantha J. Jones
Analysis Of Cost And Schedule Estimation Trends For Major Defense Acquisition Programs, Sammantha J. Jones
Theses and Dissertations
This study uses both descriptive and inferential techniques to investigate trends in cost and schedule estimates created by the Department of Defense for their Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) throughout the last five decades. For schedule growth percentages, we did not identify any statistically significant trend regarding increasing or decreasing schedule changes or variances of schedule estimates throughout the five decades analyzed. Examining the overall cost growth of MDAPs, a statistically significant difference between the Cost Growth Factors (CGFs) calculated between the 1990s and the 2010s was found, with the 2010s exhibiting lower CGFs. A downward trend in the variances …
Persistence And Mitigation Of Pfas Within Concrete Stormwater Drainage Infrastructure, Jason R. Mcdonald
Persistence And Mitigation Of Pfas Within Concrete Stormwater Drainage Infrastructure, Jason R. Mcdonald
Theses and Dissertations
The persistence, fate, and transport of per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances, which have been shown to have adverse effects on human health, have been previously studied in environmental media such as soils and groundwater. This study investigates concrete, a medium that is rarely studied but frequently present in instances where PFAS originating from AFFF releases and spills have occurred. Used heavily throughout aviation firefighting, AFFF poses environmental hazards due to the length of PFAS degradation and toxicological implications, thus its classification as a forever chemical. From the very limited reports to date, studies have suggested very slow release from concrete, potentially …
Carbon Estimation And Decision Making In Usaf Acquisition, Robert F. Gray
Carbon Estimation And Decision Making In Usaf Acquisition, Robert F. Gray
Theses and Dissertations
Recent executive orders and international agreements require the United States to significantly reduce its carbon and greenhouse gas emissions. The DoD is a significant contributor to the carbon emissions of the USA and will be required to reduce the emissions. Therefore, in order to make appropriate programmatic decisions the DoD needs to develop an appropriate method for estimating carbon and making programmatic decisions; trading-off carbon emissions with the traditional cost-schedule-performance metrics. This thesis examines the possibility of developing a model that can be used to estimate the carbon footprint of producing a system before detailed engineering designed have been complete.
Investigation Into Engineering Change Order Costs And Appropriate Rules-Of-Thumb, Kaiana M. Miller
Investigation Into Engineering Change Order Costs And Appropriate Rules-Of-Thumb, Kaiana M. Miller
Theses and Dissertations
Engineering Change Orders (ECO) are technical requirements changes to existing contracts. To account for the potential increase in contract costs stemming from ECOs, current acquisition practice is to estimate a dollar value to hold in management reserve (MR) in case of ECO occurrence. Estimators often rely on rules-of-thumb when developing these estimates. Specifically, estimators use a 10% rule-of-thumb for estimating MR contract costs in the Development life cycle phase and a 5% rule-of-thumb for contracts in the Production or O&S life cycle phase. However, no empirical data supports or validates these 10% and 5% figures. Using a new data source, …
Defining Resilience, Robustness, And Vulnerability Metrics To Guide Facilities And Infrastructure Decision Making For The United States Air Force, Kelly W. Minor
Theses and Dissertations
Tyndall AFB was nearly destroyed after a category five hurricane named Michael tore through the Florida panhandle in 2018. A Program Management Office was stood up to coordinate, plan, and carry out the rebuild efforts of Tyndall AFB. The office’s primary responsibility is “building a base capable of supporting a 21st-century mission while also focusing on structural resiliency and efficiency” (Laidlaw 2019). Despite the requirement to build a resilient infrastructure portfolio, the United States Air Force has yet to fully quantify and qualify measures of resilience, including robustness and vulnerability, in the context of their current built infrastructure portfolio. This …
Networked Cooperative Autonomous Munitions Digital Twin Modeling Utilizing Model Based Systems Engineering, Christopher R. Reed
Networked Cooperative Autonomous Munitions Digital Twin Modeling Utilizing Model Based Systems Engineering, Christopher R. Reed
Theses and Dissertations
An example of a high-complexity system is a swarm of Networked Cooperative Autonomous Munitions (NCAM) that prioritize wide area search and multiple view target confirmation. First, this research discusses methods toward building behavioral models within a Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) tool. Then, this research presents the parallel modeling effort of NCAM in two environments: the MBSE model in Cameo Systems Modeler, and a physics-based model in the Advanced Framework for Simulation, Integration, and Modeling (AFSIM). Each digital model in its environment provides distinct benefits to the stakeholders of the design process, so the models must present consistent and parallel information. …
Exploring The Value Of Training System Alternatives Through Methods Technologies, And Relevant Attributes, Brian R. Novitsky
Exploring The Value Of Training System Alternatives Through Methods Technologies, And Relevant Attributes, Brian R. Novitsky
Theses and Dissertations
Skilled maintainers are being lost at a higher rate than average of all enlisted career fields within the Air Force. Although incentive programs can provide some retention, attrition rates may continue to vary, placing the readiness of the warfighter in jeopardy. Additionally, the technologies used to train maintainers have evolved substantially, including augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) solutions, among others. These technologies have recently gained notoriety as novel ways to increase training effectiveness, providing avenues for maintainers to achieve greater skill levels at a faster rate than traditional platforms. Through semi-structured subject matter expert (SME) interviews, this qualitative …
The Application Of Virtual Reality In Firefighting Training, Dylan A. Gagnon
The Application Of Virtual Reality In Firefighting Training, Dylan A. Gagnon
Theses and Dissertations
Immersive simulations such as virtual reality is becoming more prevalent for use in training environments for many professions. United States Air Force firefighters may benefit from incorporating VR technology into their training program to increase organizational commitment, job satisfaction, self-efficacy, and job performance. With implementing a new training platform, it is also important to understand the relationship between these variables and the perceived benefits and efficacy of the VR training, which has not yet been studied in previous research. This study addresses this issue by gathering data from fire departments currently fielding a VR fire training platform.
Engineering Change Orders In Space Programs: "What Are The Odds?", Aaron Noel D. Santos
Engineering Change Orders In Space Programs: "What Are The Odds?", Aaron Noel D. Santos
Theses and Dissertations
There has been little empirical evidence and vague official guidance published to inform the Department of Defense (DOD) acquisition community on the cost growth effects of engineering change orders (ECO) on their programs. The information is especially scarce when it comes to understanding those effects in space programs. Utilizing previous research to our advantage, we explore factors that may explain ECO-related cost growth including program size, acquisition phase, the number of modifications to a contract, contract type, and specific space commodity assets. Using non-parametric analysis, contingency tables, and odds ratio tests, these were found to be significant factors (except acquisition …