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An Exploratory Application Of Neural Networks To The Sortie Generation Forecasting Problem, James M. Dagg Sep 1991

An Exploratory Application Of Neural Networks To The Sortie Generation Forecasting Problem, James M. Dagg

Theses and Dissertations

This exploratory study assesses the accuracy of backpropagation neural networks in predicting sortie generations, given pre-specified levels of air base resources. Single hidden layer networks and two-way interaction regression metamodels were fitted to simulated data previously generated by way of a factional design for ten factors at two levels, and subsequently tested (cross-validated) via an independent testing sample. It was determined that regression metamodels were generally superior in predicting unseen cases, while their network counterparts exhibited far better goodness-of-fit characteristics. The research consistently emphasizes that goodness-of-fit in no way necessarily implies goodness-of-prediction, in that different non-equivalent statistical measures are required …


A Decision Support System To Assist Manpower Forecasting In The Royal Australian Air Force, Simon J. Kelly Sep 1991

A Decision Support System To Assist Manpower Forecasting In The Royal Australian Air Force, Simon J. Kelly

Theses and Dissertations

This study considers a problem that faces Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) manpower and personnel managers. Information decisions on the future force structure of the RAAF officer corps can be made by managers if they have access to objective, valid, reliable forecasts. At present, the RAAF has no standard mechanism to perform forecasts--a variety of tools are used. Given the importance and cost of the manpower resource, one integrated forecasting tool would support manpower decisions greatly. The aim of this research is to address the existing forecasting deficiency in the RAAF and provide an automated system to integrate current forecasting …


Analysis Of Department Of Defense Organic Depot Maintenance Capacity Management And Facility Utilization Factors, Marlies Dewoody Sep 1991

Analysis Of Department Of Defense Organic Depot Maintenance Capacity Management And Facility Utilization Factors, Marlies Dewoody

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigated the effects of mandated depot capacity utilization rates on throughput, inventory, and operating expense. The measures of merit analyzed were work in process inventories, leadtime, and throughput. Since the services do not use a common computer system to track/compute capacity data, a computer simulation provided the data used to meet the research objectives. The simulation modeled a serially interdependent system subject to statistical fluctuations. Variability in the system was reduced by reducing the spread around the processing time mean. Buffer inventories were placed in front of each process to protect the process from variability. Constrained systems were …


An Application Of Artificial Intelligence Technology Within The Standard Base Supply System, Richard G. Nelson Sep 1991

An Application Of Artificial Intelligence Technology Within The Standard Base Supply System, Richard G. Nelson

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigated the feasibility of applying artificial intelligence technology within the Standard Base Supply System (SBSS). With assembly endless reductions in manpower authorizations within the SBSS and the potential for a continued loss of expert knowledge, the use of knowledge-based system (KBSs) was examined to determine if these systems could alleviate this of manpower. Literature related to the fields of artificial intelligence, expert systems, and KBSs was traced, yielding a methodology for identifying candidate problems, and for the development, verification, and validation of prototype KBSs. This methodology was then employed within the research, culminating in the creation, verification, and …


Determining Production Capability In Aircraft Maintenance: A Regression Analysis, Charles R. Jung Sep 1991

Determining Production Capability In Aircraft Maintenance: A Regression Analysis, Charles R. Jung

Theses and Dissertations

This research analyzed twenty-three maintenance constraint and three production output performance measures for nine SAC aircraft systems. SAS System for Elementary Statistical Analysis is used to analyze twenty-one months of ex post facto maintenance data. Correlation analysis is used to identify maintenance constraints that assist in explaining aircraft maintenance production capability. Forward stepwise regression is used to build predictive models of maintenance production capability for each of the nine aircraft systems. The twenty-three maintenance constraint measures are regressed against three productivity output measures: Mission Capable Rate, Total Not Mission Capable Supply Rate and Total Not Mission Capable Maintenance Rate. The …


Heuristics For Hospital Inventory Management, Thomas G. Hibson Sep 1991

Heuristics For Hospital Inventory Management, Thomas G. Hibson

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigated the reasoning strategies used by hospital logistics management experts and was conducted at the Wright-Patterson AFB (WPAFB) Medical Center. An expert system was developed to verify the captured strategies. The particular area of interest of this study was the reasoning strategies involved in the reconciliation of the Monthly Stock Status Report within the Medical Logistics Branch. A literature review revealed there were few guidelines as to when and what action to pursue when reconciling the Monthly Stock Status Report. Though there were no references in the literature on expert systems that dealt with this particular report, there …


Performance Assessment Of The Spare Parts For The Activation Of Relocated Systems (Spares) Forecasting Model, Paul L. Bunker Sep 1991

Performance Assessment Of The Spare Parts For The Activation Of Relocated Systems (Spares) Forecasting Model, Paul L. Bunker

Theses and Dissertations

This research assessed the performance of the Spare Parts for the Activation of Relocated Systems (SPARES) forecast model used to develop the spares requirements forecast for the August 1988 activation of the 174TFW at Syracuse ANGB NY. SPARES was developed by the Air Force Logistics Management Center in August 1988 to replace existing Standard Base Supply System (SBSS) forecasting procedures. SPARES uses mission change data (MCD) from five similar-size source bases to determine the probability of future demand (PFD) for items at the gaining base. Before implementing SPARES in the SBSS, forecast performance must be measured and model weaknesses identified …


Comparison Of The Operational Characteristics Of The Theory Of Constraints And Just-In-Time Scheduling Methodologies, Lynn A. Sines Sep 1991

Comparison Of The Operational Characteristics Of The Theory Of Constraints And Just-In-Time Scheduling Methodologies, Lynn A. Sines

Theses and Dissertations

This study compared the characteristics of scheduling using two approaches: Just-in-Time (JIT) and the Theory of Constraints (TOC). Computer simulation was used to evaluate changes in the throughput of the system due to system variability and varying work-in-process (WIP) levels. The independent variables were processing time, probability of failure, and WIP level. The literature search revealed that these variables impacted performance of JIT systems. Simulation models of three different production systems were developed to determine if the TOC scheduled system would provide greater or equivalent throughput for equivalent levels of WIP, and to determine if the system production flow path …


A Computer Simulation Analysis Of The Usaf Vehicle Allowance/ Authorization Process, Charles T. Butler Sep 1991

A Computer Simulation Analysis Of The Usaf Vehicle Allowance/ Authorization Process, Charles T. Butler

Theses and Dissertations

This research examined the effects of the incorporation of Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) on the USAF vehicle allowance/authorization process. The study utilized a computer simulation model to mimic the flow of the AF form 601, Equipment Action Request, as it is submitted at base level and coordinated through the MAJCOM and WR-ALC. The hypothesis was that the allowance/authorization cycle time could be made shorter by transmitting the information contained on the form 601 electronically, rather than mailing the form to each coordinating agency. In order to compare the process with and without the use of EDI, two computer simulation models …


A Policy Analysis Of Using Unit Costs As A Means Of Performance Measurement In The Air Force Science And Technology Program, Michael P. Avery Sep 1991

A Policy Analysis Of Using Unit Costs As A Means Of Performance Measurement In The Air Force Science And Technology Program, Michael P. Avery

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigates the possible use of unit costs as a means of performance measurement in the Air Force Science and Technology (S and T) program. Using a policy analysis methodology, the author breaks the analysis into four phases. The first phase called understanding the problem and incorporates the theory of management control systems, budgets, resource management systems, and identifies what the S and T program encompasses. The second phase is called developing policy options and identifies three distinctly different policies that satisfy the need for getting performance information into the hands of decision-makers. The third phase is called determining …


The Development And Retention Of Critical Thinking Dispositions Among Students Of The Air Force Institute Of Technology Graduate Management Programs, Luke J. Schaub Sep 1991

The Development And Retention Of Critical Thinking Dispositions Among Students Of The Air Force Institute Of Technology Graduate Management Programs, Luke J. Schaub

Theses and Dissertations

This effort analyzed the development and retention of critical thinking dispositions in students of the Air Force Institute of Technology's School of Systems and Logistics graduate management program. The Myers-Briggs Type Indicator was used as a measure of subjects' dispositions. Pre- and post- test surveys were administered when subjects entered and exited the program, and a follow-up administered two to five years later. The pre- and post-tests were administered to 427 subjects and the follow-up to 201 of those subjects. It was found that subjects increased their preference for logical, objective decision-making while enrolled in the program. Subjects also increased …


Improved Decision Making Through Group Composition, William E. Page Iii Sep 1991

Improved Decision Making Through Group Composition, William E. Page Iii

Theses and Dissertations

This experimental study attempted to prove that teams formed with dissimilar personality types would have better decision making than teams which were not formed by dissimilar types. The Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, based on Jung's Theory of Psychological Type, was used to determine the subject's personality type preferences. Subjects' perceptions of team processes were also investigated. The sample population consisted of military officers and civil servants who attended the Advanced Program Management course at the Air Force Institute of Technology. Decision making effectiveness was determined from team performance on the Time-by-Event-by-Member-Pattern-Observation system (TEMPO). The design for this research consisted of comparing …


A Review Of Selected Usaf Life Cycle Costing Models, Mark G. Twomey Sep 1991

A Review Of Selected Usaf Life Cycle Costing Models, Mark G. Twomey

Theses and Dissertations

This study examined the history of the development of life cycle costing (LCC) in the DOD and USAF, and reviewed 11 'mainstream' LCC models currently being used by the Air Force including the LSC, LCCH, ZCORE, CASA, PRICE H, PRICE HL, PRICE M, PRICE S, MLCC, Dyna-METRIC, and LCOM models. A literature search revealed that the last comprehensive reviews of LCC modeling in the USAF were conducted in the 1970s by the Joint AFSC/AFLC Commanders' Working Group on LCC and Rand. LCC's initial development, in the 1960s, was prompted by rapid increases in operating and support (O and S) costs …


Collisional Dynamics Of The B3Π(O+) State Of Bromine Of Monofluoride, David W. Melton Aug 1991

Collisional Dynamics Of The B3Π(O+) State Of Bromine Of Monofluoride, David W. Melton

Theses and Dissertations

When Bromine is combined with flourine atoms and discharged oxygen in a flow tube is produced in a highly non thermal distribution peaking at v'=3. The emission was linearly dependent on the concentration. The observed dependence of the BrF(B) emission on Bromine and atomic oxygen is inconsistent with a steady state prediction of a sequential excitation mechanism, where BrF(X) is excited by successive collisions with singlet oxygen. The experimental data are consistent with a three body mechanism involving Br and F atoms. Electronic quenching of BrF(B) by a number of collision partners (Br2, CO2, O2 …


A Multiple Model Adaptive Estimator Using First And Second-Order Acceleration Models For Use In A Forward-Looking Infrared Tracker, Barbara J. Niblett Jun 1991

A Multiple Model Adaptive Estimator Using First And Second-Order Acceleration Models For Use In A Forward-Looking Infrared Tracker, Barbara J. Niblett

Theses and Dissertations

The performance of a multiple model adaptive estimator (MMAE) for an enhanced correlator/forward-looking-infrared tracker for airborne targets is analyzed in order to improve its performance. Performance evaluation is based on elemental filter selection and MMAE estimation error sizes and trends. The elemental filters are based on either first or second-order acceleration models. Improved filter selection is achieved by using acceleration models that separate the frequency content of acceleration power spectral densities into non- overlapping regions with second-order models versus the more traditional overlapping regions with first-order models. A revised tuning method is presented. The maximum a posteriori (MAP) versus the …


An Ada Based Expert System For The Ada Version Of Satool Ii, Min-Fuh Shyong Jun 1991

An Ada Based Expert System For The Ada Version Of Satool Ii, Min-Fuh Shyong

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis continues the work of implementing the expert system for the Ada version of SAtool II, an software design requirement analysis tool. The background, history, design process together with the design results and validation of the implementation with Ada and CLIPS/Ada is presented.


An Alternative Algorithm For Discrete-Time Filtering, Frederick H. Zeitz Iii Jun 1991

An Alternative Algorithm For Discrete-Time Filtering, Frederick H. Zeitz Iii

Theses and Dissertations

The discrete-time Kalman filter is a conditional mean estimator of the states of a linear stochastic process, conditioned on the previous state and current measurements. It assumes that the states and noise inputs can be represented as jointly Gaussian random variables. The influence diagram is a decision analysis tool. Under certain conditions, it can represent continuous, jointly Gaussian random variables. The conditioning order of the random variables may be changed (using Bayes' rule) so that any random variable can be conditioned on any other subset of random variables in the diagram. Under these conditions, an influence diagram can represent the …


Quenching And Rotational Energy Transfer In Molecular Bromine: Br2(B), Dean A. Massman May 1991

Quenching And Rotational Energy Transfer In Molecular Bromine: Br2(B), Dean A. Massman

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigates the rotational energy transfer processes of optically excited bromine molecules in the presence of several collision partners. Resolved laser induced fluorescence spectra of collisionally populated rotational states were analyzed by means of Stern Volmer analysis. Total rotational removal rate coefficients and state-to-state rotational removal rate coefficients for the v'=11,J'=35 level of Br2(B) were obtained for collisions with Br2(X), He, Ar and Xe. Rotational removal rate coefficients were also obtained for the v'11, J'=26 and 47; v'=14, J'=36 states of Br2(B) with collisions with Ar. Total rotational removal rate for Br2 …


A Simulation Analysis Of The Usaf Commissary Customer Service Environment In Support Of Afcoms Store-Level Staff Sizing, Bruce H. Fritz Ii Apr 1991

A Simulation Analysis Of The Usaf Commissary Customer Service Environment In Support Of Afcoms Store-Level Staff Sizing, Bruce H. Fritz Ii

Theses and Dissertations

This Thesis sought to determine the probable impact of the proposed Air Force Commissary Service (AFCOMS) manpower standard for customer service (manpower standard) upon commissary operating environments and to investigate the sensitivity of performance parameters within the customer service system. Specific problems addressed were: (1) Comparison of the cashier manpower requirements calculated by the proposed AFCOMS manpower standard to those determined by a simulation model under similar conditions; (2) Calculation of the expected mean and maximum waiting times in the commissary given the proposed standard; and (3) Determination of the sensitivity of customer waiting time performance measures to variations in …


Afit/Afosr Symposium On Applications Of Wavelets To Signal Processing, Volume Ii, Tutorial Notes, Gregory T. Warhola, Mark E. Oxley, Steven K. Rogers, Matthew Kabrisky, Bruce W. Suter Mar 1991

Afit/Afosr Symposium On Applications Of Wavelets To Signal Processing, Volume Ii, Tutorial Notes, Gregory T. Warhola, Mark E. Oxley, Steven K. Rogers, Matthew Kabrisky, Bruce W. Suter

AFIT Documents

The Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) hosted the Symposium on Applications of Wavelets to Signal processing during 20-22 March 1991 at the AFIT Science and Research Center, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH. This was the first major academic meeting of its kind held at AFIT. The symposium was sponsored by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR), Bolling AFB, DC. It focused on applications of wavelets to problems in image and speech processing, communications, and graphics and opened with a one-day short course, 'A Tutorial on Wavelets.' The symposium was attended by more than 220 researchers worldwide. They represented 15 …


Modifications To Mcnp, Version 3b: Incorporating A Variable Density Atmosphere. Addendum, David L. Monti, Kirk A. Mathews Mar 1991

Modifications To Mcnp, Version 3b: Incorporating A Variable Density Atmosphere. Addendum, David L. Monti, Kirk A. Mathews

AFIT Documents

MCNP version 3B was modified to incorporate a continuously variable density atmosphere. This was accomplished by representing the variation of air density as a function of altitude with a series of continuous piecewise exponential curves up to a maximum altitude of 1000 km. User-written subroutines and functions were written which incorporated these piecewise functions. These subroutines and functions were subsequently incorporated into a production version of MCNP. Several MCNP subroutines and files were modified in support of these modifications. This report discusses detailed information regarding the theoretical development of the variable density model, the user written subroutines and functions, the …


Multicriteria Network Routing Of Tactical Aircraft In A Threat Radar Environment, Ernst K. Isensee Mar 1991

Multicriteria Network Routing Of Tactical Aircraft In A Threat Radar Environment, Ernst K. Isensee

Theses and Dissertations

Real-time route planning for tactical aircraft has established a requirement for analytical tools which prescribe optimal solutions. The Air Force Electronic Warfare Center has developed a computerized routing aid which enhances the ability to plan tactical flight missions under real-time constraints. The decision aid known as the Improved Many-on-Many (IMOM) allows the user to subjectively evaluate flight routes within enemy radar coverages. However, the mission planner is required to intuitively assesses the survivability risks associated for each user defined route. As an alternative to this method, the deterministic procedures of dynamic programming and the shortest path algorithms offer techniques which …


A Prototype Meta-Language And Automated Translator For Decision Analysis Problem Formulation, Jerry R. Puyear Mar 1991

A Prototype Meta-Language And Automated Translator For Decision Analysis Problem Formulation, Jerry R. Puyear

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis research effort develops a prototype meta-language for decision analysis problem description and automated software to translate the meta-language into a format useable by decision analysis software solvers. MELDA, the metalanguage developed, makes use of special symbols to provide a succinct language for the automation environment yet provides the means for user comprehension. Complete syntax and implementation rules are included. The MELADA translator software developed, DAT, stores the data given by MELADA in a file using prototype standard format, DASF, designed to hold all required data to solve a problem. DAT provides error checking and a message output file. …


A Network Flow And Goal Programming Approach To Modeling The Impact Of Pre-Accession Training To The Trained Personnel Requirements Process, William J. Beveridge Mar 1991

A Network Flow And Goal Programming Approach To Modeling The Impact Of Pre-Accession Training To The Trained Personnel Requirements Process, William J. Beveridge

Theses and Dissertations

HQ ATC was tasked to analyze the impact of pre-accession training to the Trained Personnel Required (TPR) and training production process. Pre- accession training is a policy of providing contracted initial skills training to enlistees prior to entering basic military training. The purpose of this study was to develop a method to model the impact of pre-accession training. A network modeling and goal programming approach was used. Comparisons between the current training policy and a pre-accession training policy were made. Sensitivity was conducted on the impact of a balk rate on the new policy. The balk rate is the percent …


A Prolog-Based System For Hardware Verification, Kevin L. Sparks Mar 1991

A Prolog-Based System For Hardware Verification, Kevin L. Sparks

Theses and Dissertations

With the expanding number of components provided on a single digital chip, verification of digital designs is becoming a major problem. The more circuits one places on a single chip, the greater the number of input/output combinations which need to be checked. A paper by Barrow in 1984 discusses a Prolog-based hierarchical formal verification system which he calls VERIFY. Barrow provided a lot of information on what VERIFY can and cannot do, and on projected enhancements. He does not, however, mention how VERIFY actually performs the task of formal verification. This thesis will provide a description of one possible implementation …


A Solution Methodology For The Variable-Level Scheduling Problem, Dennis R. Benson Mar 1991

A Solution Methodology For The Variable-Level Scheduling Problem, Dennis R. Benson

Theses and Dissertations

This study looked at a specific scheduling problem for a Department of Defense agency. A heuristic algorithms was developed to solve a general variable-level scheduling problem and was applied to this specific problem. This heuristic used linear programming and integer programming to find the minimum number of weekly billable hours for five alternative schedules. The best alternative schedule was further developed into a spreadsheet designed, squad level, master schedule. The result of this study was a proposed schedule that would save the United States government 8.2% of their security costs for this one part of the governmental agency. These savings …


Calculated Point Defect Properties Of The Intermetallic Compounds Nickel Titanium (Niti) And Iron Titanium (Feti), Russell T. Lutton Mar 1991

Calculated Point Defect Properties Of The Intermetallic Compounds Nickel Titanium (Niti) And Iron Titanium (Feti), Russell T. Lutton

Theses and Dissertations

Atomistic simulation with a modified version of the DYNAMO code was used to calculate the point defect properties of the intermetallic compounds nickel titanium and iron titanium. The calculated energies are believed to be experimentally accurate to within ± 0.1 eV. Vacant Ni or Fe lattice sites were preferred and had energies of 6.356 eV for NiTi and 5.899 eV for FeTi. Removing a Ti atom resulted in a neighboring antisite defect caused by migration of a Ni or Fe atom into the vacant Ti site. These configurations had energies of 7.024 eV for NiTi and 6.336 eV for FeTi. …


An Assessment Of The Accuracy Of Semi-Empirical Quantum Chemistry Calculations Of The Mechanical Properties Of Polymers, James R. Shoemaker Mar 1991

An Assessment Of The Accuracy Of Semi-Empirical Quantum Chemistry Calculations Of The Mechanical Properties Of Polymers, James R. Shoemaker

Theses and Dissertations

The ultimate mechanical properties of polymers, assuming perfect morphology, will be limited by the mechanical properties of a single, ideal polymer chain. Previous calculations of polymer chain moduli using semi- empirical (SE) quantum chemistry methods have resulted in modulus values much higher than experimentally measured. This study investigated the error in the calculated inherent to the method of calculation by comparing SE results for C-C bond potentials in two well characterized polymers, polyethylene and polydiacetylene. It was found that the SE calculation systematically overpredicted bond stiffness in these polymers by approximately 25% to 30%. This is the upper limit on …


Development Of A Personal Computer Based Approach To Aircraft Parameter Identification, Mark S. Erickson Mar 1991

Development Of A Personal Computer Based Approach To Aircraft Parameter Identification, Mark S. Erickson

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops and tests a personal computer based approach to the aircraft parameter identification problem. The approach was tested analytically at the Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio. These tests were conducted using simplified short period approximation and second-order transfer function models of longitudinal aircraft response. Initial evaluations were accomplished using simulated, noise free data. The longitudinal aircraft model was modified prior to flight test, for both convenience and necessity. This more complex model was evaluated during a flight test program at the USAFTPS, Edwards AFB, California. A T-38A aircraft was used as a tool to demonstrate …


Effects Of Colocation And Non-Colocation Of Sensors And Actuators On Flexible Structures, W. C. Lee Mar 1991

Effects Of Colocation And Non-Colocation Of Sensors And Actuators On Flexible Structures, W. C. Lee

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis compares the performance and robustness of colocated and non-colocated sensor/actuator pairs. Linear quadratic Gaussian and loop transfer recovery (LOG/LTR) procedures are used to design optimum controllers for three example problems. The first example is a single motion degree-of-freedom system having motion only about one axis. This type of system does not have any right half plane zeros for the non-colocated case; however, the thesis shows it behaves as a non minimum phase system. The second example is a Bernoulli-Euler beam which does not have RHP zeros. An optimum LOG/LTR controller can not improve the robustness of non minimum …