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Cross-Validating And Bagging Partitioning Algorithms With Variable Importance, Annette M. Molinaro, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

We present a cross-validated bagging scheme in the context of partitioning algorithms. To explore the benefits of the various bagging scheme, we compare via simulations the predictive ability of single Classification and Regression (CART) Tree with several previously suggested bagging schemes and with our proposed approach. Additionally, a variable importance measure is explained and illustrated.

Investigation Of Laser Beam Induced Current Techniques For Heterojunction Photodiode Characterization, Weifu Fang, David A. Redfern, Kazufumi Ito, G. Bahir, Charles A. Musca, John M. Dell, Lorenzo Faraone

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications

A reduced model is developed that has significant advantages over the full drift-diffusion model for the simulation of laser beam-induced current (LBIC) signals in the presence of heterojunctions. The model determines the contribution to the LBIC signal that would occur from photogeneration at any position within the semiconductor, and is particularly useful for heterostructures where judicious choice of illumination wavelength can result in photogeneration at different depths within the device structure. The reduced model is used to examine the basic features of LBIC as applied to two types of planar P-n HgCdTe heterojunction photodiode structures. In particular, the question of …

Test Statistics Null Distributions In Multiple Testing: Simulation Studies And Applications To Genomics, Katherine S. Pollard, Merrill D. Birkner, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Sandrine Dudoit

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Multiple hypothesis testing problems arise frequently in biomedical and genomic research, for instance, when identifying differentially expressed or co-expressed genes in microarray experiments. We have developed generally applicable resampling-based single-step and stepwise multiple testing procedures (MTP) for control of a broad class of Type I error rates, defined as tail probabilities and expected values for arbitrary functions of the numbers of false positives and rejected hypotheses (Dudoit and van der Laan, 2005; Dudoit et al., 2004a,b; Pollard and van der Laan, 2004; van der Laan et al., 2005, 2004a,b). As argued in the early article of Pollard and van der …

Performance Of Aic-Selected Spatial Covariance Structures For Fmri Data, David A. Stromberg

Theses and Dissertations

FMRI datasets allow scientists to assess functionality of the brain by measuring the response of blood flow to a stimulus. Since the responses from neighboring locations within the brain are correlated, simple linear models that assume independence of measurements across locations are inadequate. Mixed models can be used to model the spatial correlation between observations, however selecting the correct covariance structure is difficult. Information criteria, such as AIC are often used to choose among covariance structures. Once the covariance structure is selected, significance tests can be used to determine if a region of interest within the brain is significantly active. …

When Should One Substract Background Fluorescence In Two Color Microarrays?, Robert B. Scharpf, Christine A. Iacobuzio-Donahue, Julie B. Sneddon, Giovanni Parmigiani

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

Two color microarrays are a powerful tool for genomic analysis, but have noise components that make inferences regarding gene expression inefficient and potentially misleading. Background fluorescence,whether attributable to non-specific binding or other sources,is an important component of noise. The decision to subtract fluorescence surrounding spots of hybridization from spot fluorescence has been controversial, with no clear criteria for determining circumstances that may favor, or disfavor, background subtraction. While it is generally accepted that subtracting background reduces bias but increases variance in the estimates of the ratios of interest, no formal analysis of the bias-variance trade off of background subtraction has …

Does The Effect Of Micronutrient Supplementation On Neonatal Survival Vary With Respect To The Percentiles Of The Birth Weight Distribution?, Francesca Dominici, Scott L. Zeger, Giovanni Parmigiani, Joanne Katz, Parul Christian

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

Scientific Background: In developing countries, higher infant mortality is partially caused by poor maternal and fetal nutrition. Clinical trials of micronutrient supplementation are aimed at reducing the risk of infant mortality by increasing birth weight. Because infant mortality is greatest among the low birth weight infants (LBW) (less than or equal to 2500 grams), an effective intervention might be needed to increase birth weight among the smallest babies. Although it has been demonstrated that supplementation increases the birth weight in a trial conducted in Nepal, there is inconclusive evidence that the supplementation improves their survival. It has been hypothesized that …

Linear Regression Of Censored Length-Biased Lifetimes, Ying Qing Chen, Yan Wang

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Length-biased lifetimes may be collected in observational studies or sample surveys due to biased sampling scheme. In this article, we use a linear regression model, namely, the accelerated failure time model, for the population lifetime distributions in regression analysis of the length-biased lifetimes. It is discovered that the associated regression parameters are invariant under the length-biased sampling scheme. According to this discovery, we propose the quasi partial score estimating equations to estimate the population regression parameters. The proposed methodologies are evaluated and demonstrated by simulation studies and an application to actual data set.

G-Computation Estimation Of Nonparametric Causal Effects On Time-Dependent Mean Outcomes In Longitudinal Studies, Romain Neugebauer, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Two approaches to Causal Inference based on Marginal Structural Models (MSM) have been proposed. They provide different representations of causal effects with distinct causal parameters. Initially, a parametric MSM approach to Causal Inference was developed: it relies on correct specification of a parametric MSM. Recently, a new approach based on nonparametric MSM was introduced. This later approach does not require the assumption of a correctly specified MSM and thus is more realistic if one believes that correct specification of a parametric MSM is unlikely in practice. However, this approach was described only for investigating causal effects on mean outcomes collected …

Good Measures On Cantor Space, Ethan Akin

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

While there is, up to homeomorphism, only one Cantor space, i.e. one zero-dimensional, perfect, compact, nonempty metric space, there are many measures on Cantor space which are not topologically equivalent. The clopen values set for a full, nonatomic measure μ is the countable dense subset {μ(U): U is clopen} of the unit interval. It is a topological invariant for the measure. For the class of good measures, it is a complete invariant. A full, nonatomic measure μ is good if whenever U, V are clopen sets with μ(U) < μ(V), there exists W a clopen subset of V such that μ(W) = μ(U). These measures have interesting dynamical properties. They are exactly the measures which arise from uniquely ergodic minimal systems on Cantor space. For some of them there is a unique generic measure-preserving homeomorphism. That is, within the Polish group of such homeomorphisms there is a dense, G δ conjugacy class. ©2004 American Mathematical Society.

A Note On The Construction Of Counterfactuals And The G-Computation Formula, Zhuo Yu, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Robins' causal inference theory assumes existence of treatment specific counterfactual variables so that the observed data augmented by the counterfactual data will satisfy a consistency and a randomization assumption. In this paper we provide an explicit function that maps the observed data into a counterfactual variable which satisfies the consistency and randomization assumptions. This offers a practically useful imputation method for counterfactuals. Gill & Robins [2001]'s construction of counterfactuals can be used as an imputation method in principle, but it is very hard to implement in practice. Robins [1987] shows that the counterfactual distribution can be identified from the observed …

Cross-Validated Bagged Learning, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Sandra E. Sinisi, Maya L. Petersen

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Many applications aim to learn a high dimensional parameter of a data generating distribution based on a sample of independent and identically distributed observations. For example, the goal might be to estimate the conditional mean of an outcome given a list of input variables. In this prediction context, Breiman (1996a) introduced bootstrap aggregating (bagging) as a method to reduce the variance of a given estimator at little cost to bias. Bagging involves applying the estimator to multiple bootstrap samples, and averaging the result across bootstrap samples. In order to deal with the curse of dimensionality, typical practice has been to …

On Additive Regression Of Expectancy, Ying Qing Chen

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Regression models have been important tools to study the association between outcome variables and their covariates. The traditional linear regression models usually specify such an association by the expectations of the outcome variables as function of the covariates and some parameters. In reality, however, interests often focus on their expectancies characterized by the conditional means. In this article, a new class of additive regression models is proposed to model the expectancies. The model parameters carry practical implication, which may allow the models to be useful in applications such as treatment assessment, resource planning or short-term forecasting. Moreover, the new model …

Spatio-Temporal Point Processes: Methods And Applications, Peter J. Diggle

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

No abstract provided.

A Partial Likelihood For Spatio-Temporal Point Processes, Peter J. Diggle

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

Spatio-temporal point process data arise in many fields of application. An intuitively natural way to specify a model for a spatio-temporal point process is through its conditional intensity at location x and time t, given the history of the process up to time t. Typically, this results in an analytically intractable likelihood. Likelihood-based inference therefore relies on Monte Carlo methods which are computationally intensive and require careful tuning to each application. We propose a partial likelihood alternative which is computationally straightforward and can be applied routinely. We apply the method to data from the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic in the UK, …

Polydesigns And Causal Inference, Fan Li, Constantine E. Frangakis

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

In an increasingly common class of studies, the goal is to evaluate causal effects of treatments that are only partially controlled by the investigator. In such studies there are two conflicting features: (1) a model on the full cohort design and data can identify the causal effects of interest, but can be sensitive to extreme regions of that design's data, where model specification can have more impact; and (2) models on a reduced design (i.e., a subset of the full data), e.g., conditional likelihood on matched subsets of data, can avoid such sensitivity, but do not generally identify the causal …

Computational Optical Biopsy, Yi Li, Ming Jiang, Ge Wang

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications

Optical molecular imaging is based on fluorescence or bioluminescence, and hindered by photon scattering in the tissue, especially in patient studies. Here we propose a computational optical biopsy (COB) approach to localize and quantify a light source deep inside a subject. In contrast to existing optical biopsy techniques, our scheme is to collect optical signals directly from a region of interest along one or multiple biopsy paths in a subject, and then compute features of an underlying light source distribution. In this paper, we formulate this inverse problem in the framework of diffusion approximation, demonstrate the solution uniqueness properties in …

An Empirical Process Limit Theorem For Sparsely Correlated Data, Thomas Lumley

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

We consider data that are dependent, but where most small sets of observations are independent. By extending Bernstein's inequality we prove a strong law of law numbers and an empirical process central limit theorem under bracketing entropy conditions.

Model Choice In Time Series Studies Of Air Pollution And Mortality, Roger D. Peng, Francesca Dominici, Thomas A. Louis

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

Multi-city time series studies of particulate matter (PM) and mortality and morbidity have provided evidence that daily variation in air pollution levels is associated with daily variation in mortality counts. These findings served as key epidemiological evidence for the recent review of the United States National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for PM. As a result, methodological issues concerning time series analysis of the relation between air pollution and health have attracted the attention of the scientific community and critics have raised concerns about the adequacy of current model formulations. Time series data on pollution and mortality are generally analyzed …

Multivariate Analysis Of Ecologicai Data Using Canco, Anne M. Parkhurst

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

This book is about understanding and applying multivariate statistical methods useful for analyzing complex ecological problems. Researchers and students seeking to improve their ability to collect and analyze data from field observations and experiments, especially those interested in the response or variation of biotic communities to environmental conditions or experimental manipulation, will find this handbook helpful. The methods discussed are widely used in plant community ecology, as well as other areas in biology.

The book is tutorial in nature. The authors provide advice on how to best apply the multivariate statistical methods using the CANOCO for Windows, a licensed computer …

Rank-Based Methods For Repeated Measures Data Under Exchangeable Errors, John Kloke

Dissertations

Rank-based estimation methods provide alternatives to least squares. Estimators derived via least squares are generally not robust to aberrant observations.Rank-based methods for linear models generalize traditional Wilcoxon procedures in the simple location models and are robust.

In the usual linear model it is assumed that the errors are independent. In the case of repeated measures data several observations are taken on each experimental unit. In the case of longitudinal data the measures are taken on the same subject over time. As such an independence assumption does not seem valid. A common solution to this is to make an assumption on …

The Navigation Potential Of Signals Of Opportunity-Based Time Difference Of Arrival Measurements, Kenneth A. Fisher

Theses and Dissertations

This research introduces the concept of navigation potential, NP, to quantify the intrinsic ability to navigate using a given signal. NP theory is a new, information theory-like concept that provides a theoretical performance limit on estimating navigation parameters from a received signal that is modeled through a stochastic mapping of the transmitted signal and measurement noise. NP theory is applied to SOP-based TDOA systems in general as well as for the Gaussian case. Furthermore, the NP is found for a received signal consisting of the transmitted signal, multiple delayed and attenuated replicas of the transmitted signal, and measurement noise. Multipath-based …

Fit-To-Fight: Waist Vs. Waist/Height Measurements To Determine An Individual's Fitness Level A Study In Statistical Regression And Analysis, Steven J. Swiderski

Theses and Dissertations

Air Force members are to be tested for fitness by measuring their abdominal circumference, counting the number of sit-ups and push-ups they can accomplish, and the time it takes them to run 1 and miles. The abdominal measurement is a "one-size-fits-all" fitness standard. This research determines that a person's waist-to-height ratio is a better measurement than the waist measurement to estimate an individual's fitness level. This research estimates that all of the variables used to proxy fitness (Gender, Age, Height, Waist Circumference, Waist-to-Height Ratio, Push-Ups, and Sit-Ups) are statistically significant and do represent good estimators of physical fitness. This research …

A Linear Regression Framework For Receiver Operating Characteristic(Roc) Curve Analysis, Zheng Zhang, Margaret S. Pepe

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In the field of medical diagnostic testing, the receiver operating characteristics(ROC) curve has long been used as a standard statistical tool to assess the accuracy of tests that yield continuous results. Although previous research in this area focused mostly on estimating the ROC curve, recently it has been recognized that the accuracy of a given test may fluctuate depending on certain factors, which motivates modelling covariate effects on the ROC curve. Comparing the corresponding ROC curves between two or more tests is a special case of covariate effect modelling. In this manuscript, we introduce a linear regression framework to model …

Attributable Risk Function In The Proportional Hazards Model, Ying Qing Chen, Chengcheng Hu, Yan Wang

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

As an epidemiological parameter, the population attributable fraction is an important measure to quantify the public health attributable risk of an exposure to morbidity and mortality. In this article, we extend this parameter to the attributable fraction function in survival analysis of time-to-event outcomes, and further establish its estimation and inference procedures based on the widely used proportional hazards models. Numerical examples and simulations studies are presented to validate and demonstrate the proposed methods.

Structure And Dynamics Of Soluble Guanylyl Cyclase, Kentaro Sugino

Theses

Soluble guanylyl cyclase (sGC) is one of the key enzymes involved in many fundamental biological processes including vasodilatation. It can be allosterically activated by synthetic compound such as YC-l. Recently, the 3D structure of adenylyl cyclase (AC), which is a homologue of sGC, was determined. Using AC as template and homology modeling, the 3D structure of sGC is predicted. Prior experimental work has suggested two binding modes of YC- 1. In the current investigation, molecular dynamics simulations (MD) were conducted to seek more detail of molecular mechanism of sGC activation.

From these MD simulations, a tentative mechanism of sGC activation …

New Statistical Paradigms Leading To Web-Based Tools For Clinical/Translational Science, Knut M. Wittkowski

COBRA Preprint Series

As the field of functional genetics and genomics is beginning to mature, we become confronted with new challenges. The constant drop in price for sequencing and gene expression profiling as well as the increasing number of genetic and genomic variables that can be measured makes it feasible to address more complex questions. The success with rare diseases caused by single loci or genes has provided us with a proof-of-concept that new therapies can be developed based on functional genomics and genetics.

Common diseases, however, typically involve genetic epistasis, genomic pathways, and proteomic pattern. Moreover, to better understand the underlying biologi-cal …

Determining The Optimum Number Of Increments In Composite Sampling, John Ellis Hathaway

Theses and Dissertations

Composite sampling can be more cost effective than simple random sampling. This paper considers how to determine the optimum number of increments to use in composite sampling. Composite sampling terminology and theory are outlined and a model is developed which accounts for different sources of variation in compositing and data analysis. This model is used to define and understand the process of determining the optimum number of increments that should be used in forming a composite. The blending variance is shown to have a smaller range of possible values than previously reported when estimating the number of increments in a …

Estimating Function Based Cross-Validation And Learning, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Daniel Rubin

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Suppose that we observe a sample of independent and identically distributed realizations of a random variable. Given a model for the data generating distribution, assume that the parameter of interest can be characterized as the parameter value which makes the population mean of a possibly infinite dimensional estimating function equal to zero. Given a collection of candidate estimators of this parameter, and specification of the vector estimating function, we propose cross-validation criteria for selecting among these estimators. This cross-validation criteria is defined as the Euclidean norm of the empirical mean over the validation sample of the estimating function at the …

Prognosis Of Stage Ii Colon Cancer By Non-Neoplastic Mucosa Gene Expresssion Profiling, Alain Barrier, Sandrine Dudoit, Et Al.

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Aims. This study assessed the possibility to build a prognosis predictor, based on non-neoplastic mucosa microarray gene expression measures, in stage II colon cancer patients. Materials and Methods. Non-neoplastic colonic mucosa mRNA samples from 24 patients (10 with a metachronous metastasis, 14 with no recurrence) were profiled using the Affymetrix HGU133A GeneChip. The k-nearest neighbor method was used for prognosis prediction using microarray gene expression measures. Leave-one-out cross-validation was used to select the number of neighbors and number of informative genes to include in the predictor. Based on this information, a prognosis predictor was proposed and its accuracy estimated by …

Colon Cancer Prognosis Prediction By Gene Expression Profiling, Alain Barrier, Sandrine Dudoit, Et Al.

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Aims. This study assessed the possibility to build a prognosis predictor, based on microarray gene expression measures, in stage II and III colon cancer patients. Materials and Methods. Tumour (T) and non-neoplastic mucosa (NM) mRNA samples from 18 patients (9 with a recurrence, 9 with no recurrence) were profiled using the Affymetrix HGU133A GeneChip. The k-nearest neighbour method was used for prognosis prediction using T and NM gene expression measures. Six-fold cross-validation was applied to select the number of neighbours and the number of informative genes to include in the predictors. Based on this information, one T-based and one NM-based …