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Parameters Winter 2023-24 Full Issue, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Welcome to the Winter 2023–24 issue of Parameters. This issue opens with two In Focus commentaries offering observations from the Russia-Ukraine War, two forums addressing deterrence and strategic influence, and the inaugural Director’s Corner for the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC).

National Space Forum 2007: Towards A Theory Of Spacepower, Charles D. Lutes

Space and Defense

Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University Eisenhower Center for Space and Defense Studies Colorado Springs, Colorado, January 2007

The Spacepower Theory Project seeks to gain insight into human behavior in outer space. The project’s overall objective is to develop a theoretical framework that helps to define, categorize, explain and anticipate ways in which “spacepower” may be pursued, how the various facets of spacepower connect to each other, and how they relate to the other instrumentalities of power that state and non-state actors may seek to achieve or retain.

The History Of United States Weapons Export Control Policy, Taylor Dinerman

Space and Defense

All nations regulate Arms sales, but the United States (U.S.) has traditionally gone further than most. After World War I, a conspiracy theory made its way into popular culture that blamed the war, and specifically the U.S. intervention in 1917, on the so called “merchants of death.” Ever since, this has been a powerful and enduring theme in politics and culture throughout the world. Yet, nowhere have the effects of this theory been more enduring than in U.S. policy and law.

Establishing Space Security: A Prescription For A Rules-Based Approach, Theresa Hitchens, Michael Katz-Hyman

Space and Defense

The question of what constitutes the proper military uses of space is not just a debate over space weapons and attacks on satellites. It is a debate that sheds light on the fundamental decisions that states and their citizens will have to make over the next century as we both explore and exploit space for its scientific, strategic, and economic value. Furthermore, the context of this debate changes year to year as the physical and political environment of space changes.

An Inchoate Process For The International Regulation Of Military Activities In Space, Baker Spring

Space and Defense

As the breadth and depth of military activities in space expand, demands are growing to regulate these activities at the international level. In some cases, these demands stem from the recognition that broader national security operations in space are moving away from a legacy of being dominated by secret intelligence activities and in the direction of more open military activities.1 In other cases, they are driven by the efforts of arms control advocates to roll back the “weaponization of space.”2 Regardless of the underlying motivations, the demands for international regulation are going to grow, and the debate will turn increasingly …

Viewpoint: Space Law And The Advancement Of Spacepower, Peter L. Hays

Space and Defense

The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or United States Government. The author thanks David Koplow, Phil Meek, and Michael Saretsky for their extremely helpful comments on previous versions of this article.

Space law has and should continue to play an essential role in the evolution of spacepower. Testing the principle of “freedom of space” and helping establish the legality of satellite overflight were primary objectives of NSC- 5520, the first U.S. …

A Good Starting Point For Deterrence, Dean Cheng

Space and Defense

A central focus for much of the Cold War was determining what would deter the Soviet Union; this was a topic upon which many of the West’s best and brightest labored to determine. In order to deter the former Soviet Union, a huge intellectual edifice was erected, which helped guide a variety of military programs, including not only the American strategic triad of land-based and sea-based missiles and manned bombers, but tactical nuclear weapons, hardened command and control, and space-based early warning systems. It also incorporated concepts, such as “extended deterrence,” “escalation dominance,” and “mutual assured destruction.”

Space Deterrence: The Delicate Balance Of Risk, Roger G. Harrison, Deron R. Jackson, Collins G. Shackelford

Space and Defense

The United States has created a military structure that is heavily satellite-dependent, without making corresponding improvements in the survivability of its space systems. The result is a classic opportunity for asymmetric, preemptive attack. The central question of this study is how to structure a strategy of deterrence to persuade potentially hostile actors that the costs of attack will nevertheless outweigh the benefits.

Strategic Communications With China About Space, Joan Johnson-Freese

Space and Defense

In 2006, I published an article entitled “Strategic Communication with China: What Message About Space?”1 The article pointed out that difficulties encountered in trying to convey its message regarding the Global War on Terror to a global audience had convinced the United States, or at least the Defense Science Board, that it needed to use strategic communications more effectively. From there I extrapolated, “If one believes that big problems are best tackled in small bites, ‘space’ perhaps offers an area where the United States can begin to understand and tackle some of the strategic communication issues it faces.”2 Communication mishaps …

Space And Sino-American Security Relations, Peter L. Hays

Space and Defense

China’s emphasis on space exploration and its development and use of space capabilities are prominent and tangible expressions of its emergence as a great power and make space an increasingly important dimension of Sino-American relations. In October 2003 China independently launched and recovered its first taikonaut, becoming just the third member of an elite spacefaring club with Russia and the United States. Then in January 2007 China first successfully tested a kinetic energy anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon and again joined Russia and the United States as one of only three states known to have demonstrated this capability. China’s growing power and …

Speech For The 2008 National Space Forum, Wayne Allard

Space and Defense

Good afternoon. It is a pleasure to be here with all of you today at the National Space Forum, and it is an honor to be here with so many industry experts and leaders. I thank our sponsors, the Eisenhower Center for Space and Defense Studies at the U.S. Air Force Academy and also the Center for Strategic and International Studies, for hosting this important event and for giving me an opportunity to speak to you today. In the Senate I have long supported the Center for Space and Defense Studies, and I am pleased to see the Center executing …

Chemicals And Creeds: Cbrn Weapon Use And Religious-Based Terrorism, Nikolai Apilado

Governance: The Political Science Journal at UNLV

General theories of terrorism typically focus on economic, social, or political factors that lead to terrorist acts. Conversely, chemical, biological, radiational, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons are rarely spoken of in academic literature. Yet, these weapons are still used by terrorists in some capacity. In this paper, I argue that religion is the primary factor that influences terrorists to pursue CBRN weapons as opposed to more secular-based terrorists. This is due to the fact that religious-based terrorists are not concerned with preserving their reputation or credibility among society, as well as being so blinded by their religion that they are willing …

Space Deterrence Or Dominance?, Dwayne Liller

Space and Defense

A strategy to safeguard United States’ space assets is needed. Deterrence strategies, like Cold War nuclear deterrence, are often recommended. Nuclear deterrence history reveals that deterrence through dominance is what early strategists employed. Both Cold War adversaries attempted repeatedly to gain the lead in nuclear weapons. Seeking short term advantages activated the security dilemma and both sides responded in kind, guaranteeing an arms race. The faulty logic of the security dilemma was that the next advantage would bring security. This did not happen and illustrated how mutual vulnerability resulted from long term and determined opposition. That condition exists to this …

Coalitions In Space: Where Networks Are Power, James Clay Moltz

Space and Defense

This study begins with the widely recognized problem of 21st century space vulnerabilities. To address this challenge, it proposes the new concept of an “allied space network” as a possible means of both reducing risks and enhancing space power. Such a concept would move beyond realist, Cold War “balancing” in space, and instead would require new forms of technical and political cooperation in the military sector among participating states. In thinking about future space security this study argues that trans-national networks and alliances offer considerable untapped potential, with possibly significant benefits particularly for the United States, which—unlike China and Russia— …

European Approaches To Space And Security: Implications For Transatlantic Cooperation, Michael Searway

Space and Defense

As complex security threats are increasing the need for international cooperation on Earth, the growing number of actors in space increasingly demands collaboration in space and security. This need is intensified by the unique environmental attributes of space. For example, debris from space assets can orbit the Earth for years, rendering large areas of orbital space unusable. Moreover, as space becomes more crowded, the lack of comprehensive international governance amplifies the chance of mishaps above Earth.

Chinese Intentions In Space: A Historical Perspective For Future Cooperation, Gregory Kulacki

Space and Defense

The United States (U.S.) is opening a new dialogue with China on cooperation in space that includes human space flight. The announcement appeared in the Joint Statement issued by U.S. President Obama and Chinese President Hu in Beijing, China on 17 November 2009. The two leaders also agreed “the two countries have common interests in promoting the peaceful use of outer space and agree to take steps to enhance security in outer space.”1 These are significant shifts in U.S. civilian and military space policy. The U.S. ended cooperation in space with China more than a decade ago2 and consistently refused …

The New Space Order: Why Space Power Matters For Europe, Nicolas Peter

Space and Defense

More than fifty years since the dawn of the Space Age and twenty years since the end of the Cold War, space affairs and politics remain interlinked. Space activities are increasingly tied to national power for major world powers, and political objectives are still the driving force for most space activities. Yet in an ever more globalized and competitive multipolar world, status and power that arise from the employment and access to the most advanced technologies are now widely perceived as key to the powers and standings of states. The importance of space activities is increasing, transitioning in terms of …

Lawful Response To Attacks On Space Systems, James D. Rendleman

Space and Defense

What means may a nation lawfully employ to respond to and to defeat threats and attacks on its space systems? Treaties and customary law provide a strong incentive to limit space activities to non-aggressive “peaceful purposes.” They do not, however, proscribe space warfare or preparation for such conflict. Space system components are thus at risk, and can be attacked, degraded, or destroyed, simultaneously or each in detail. The use of force is allowed only in self-defense against an “armed attack” or in accord with authorization of the United Nations (UN). Kinetic, electromagnetic, or information operation attacks against space systems are …

Past U.S. Actions: A Source For Foreign Perceptions Of U.S. Redlines In Space, Jonathan Mazur

Space and Defense

This paper examines the boundaries of possible United States redlines in space. A redline in space is a “marker” that when crossed would result in a military or strong diplomatic response—such as what might occur if a foreign actor temporarily or permanently interfered with any aspect of a U.S. space system. The United States has not published or possibly even defined its redlines in space—as recently noted during the 2010 U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) Deterrence Symposium by the then Commander for STRATCOM’s Joint Functional Component Command (JFCC) for Space in reference to the Schriever 2010 Wargames. The CDR JFCC Space …

Arms Control In The Third Space Age: Assessing International Efforts To Regulate Military Operations In Outer Space In The “3 C’S” Era, Walt Conrad, Justin Anderson, Sarah Jacobs Gamberini

Space and Defense

Preserving1and protecting the free and open use of outer space benefits all space-faring nations and is vital to U.S. national interests. U.S. military and civil space operations, however, face a number of growing challenges. Several countries possess or are developing means to disrupt or destroy space systems; space debris threatens the safe passage of spacecraft; and outer space is an environment where the United States now competes with a rapidly growing number of other space-faring nations. To remain the world’s preeminent military space power, the United States must consider a variety of means and strategies to address these challenges.

Cyber Deterrence: Is A Deterrence Model Practical In Cyberspace?, Nathaniel Youd

Space and Defense

Student Contribution:

After reconsidering massive retaliation versus escalation dominance concepts from nuclear deterrence, escalation dominance, investing in capability to respond proportionally at each level of cyber attack, may be the most practical and effective military strategy for strengthening cyber deterrence.

Cyberwar: Clausewitzian Encounters, Marco Cepik, Diego Rafael Canabarro, Thiago Borne Ferreira

Space and Defense

As Clausewitz’s masterpiece suggests, language matters for how states conceptualize and plan for war. ‘Cyberwar’, now on the lips of nearly every national security policymaker, may turn out to be a misnomer.

Editor's Note, Damon Coletta

Space and Defense

No abstract provided.

Great Power Cyberpolitics: Re-Interpreting Offensive Realism And Power Transition Theory For Cyber Deterrence, Yavuz Akdaǧ

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation assesses the empirical relevancy of realist International Relations (IR) theory in cyberspace and shows how a richer IR-based theory of cyber conflict can enhance the understanding of interstate cyber deterrence, especially in the context of US-Sino hegemonic cyber conflict or cyberwar. As states increasingly engage in cyber conflict by exploiting security vulnerabilities due to global interconnectivity (i.e., the Internet), cyber threat has become relevant for national security. Scholars constructed cyber deterrence to counter the threat using the fundamentals of the Cold War nuclear deterrence. Yet this approach is highly contested; cyberspace defies traditional deterrence concepts. Further theoretical analysis …

Geopolitics In Recent U.S. Professional Military Reading Lists, Bert Chapman

Libraries Faculty and Staff Scholarship and Research

Professional military reading lists have existed for a long time in the U.S. military and in other national militaries. They are frequently updated and intended to enhance the professional knowledge of military professionals in areas ranging from cultural awareness, ethics, leadership, international relations, military history and military operations, and areas of expertise considered essential to successfully executing the operations of their military service branch. These lists are prepared by the leadership organizations of these armed services such as the Air Force Chief of Staff, U.S. Army’s Chief of Staff, Chief of Naval Operations, and Marine Corps Commandant. Such readings are …

Brazil Space: Military Dependency And The Case Of The Geostationary Satellite Of Defense And Strategic Communications, Gills Vilar Lopes

Space and Defense

In Brazil, there has been no transition model of space capabilities promoted by the military sphere (especially the Brazilian Air Force) for nurturing the civil one (Brazilian Space Agency). Drawing upon official documents and legislation as primary sources, the case study of the Geostationary Satellite of Defense and Strategic Communications (SGDC) is analyzed in light of the space strategic sector. Main factors that impede the PEB are related to military-technological dependence and poor resource management, with draconian budget cuts and projects canceled before having achieved realistic milestones.

Attack On The Brain: Neurowars And Neurowarfare, Armin Krishnan

Space and Defense

Is neurotechnology leading nation-states toward a new domain of war? Neuroscience is on the verge of deciphering the human brain. As a result, brains will become a part of the battlefield against which attacks will be directed. As neuroscientist James Giordano argued: “the brain is the next battlespace.” It is foreseeable that this will have tremendous implications for warfare and could amount to a true military revolution in the sense of military historian Williamson Murray: it would completely change the characteristics of conflict, as well as transform state and society.

Arms Control And Deterrence In The Age Of Cross-Domain Coercion, Damon Coletta

Space and Defense

For deterrence, now, first seek arms control. The old relationship linking deterrence, defense, and arms control served U.S. policy makers for decades during the Cold War. It was manifest through the Spirit of Geneva (1955) and the Reykjavik Summit (1986). Much later, during the rise of cross-domain coercion and following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the same idea reemerged in NATO’s Warsaw Communique (2016).

Communicating Cyber Consequences, Timothy Goines

Space and Defense

More consideration ought to be accorded “loud” cyber weapons for signaling resolve in 21st century deterrence contests.

“Deterrence is at times a necessary or useful instrument of foreign policy, but the correct and prudent use of deterrence strategy is by no means self-evident or easily determined in all circumstances.”

In their seminal text, Alexander L. George and Richard Smoke thoroughly examined the topic of deterrence, tracing its historical roots and conducting case studies on its use. The product of this intense study was a formula that encapsulates the essence of deterrence theory. “In its simplest form, deterrence is merely a …