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Modeling Long-Term Volcanic Hazards Through Bayesian Inference: An Example From The Tohoku Volcanic Arc, Japan, Andrew J. Martin, Koji Umeda, Charles B. Connor, Jennifer N. Weller, Dapeng Zhao, Masaki Takahashi Oct 2004

Modeling Long-Term Volcanic Hazards Through Bayesian Inference: An Example From The Tohoku Volcanic Arc, Japan, Andrew J. Martin, Koji Umeda, Charles B. Connor, Jennifer N. Weller, Dapeng Zhao, Masaki Takahashi

Geology Faculty Publications

The need to quantitatively estimate future locations of volcanoes in the long-term is of increasing importance, partly as a result of the requirement of constructing certain types of installations in regions of low geologic risk. The complex geological factors and natural processes controlling the locations of volcanoes make it problematic to estimate future patterns deterministically. Instead, the probabilistic approach can be developed with quite high levels of confidence; however, for regions with few or no volcanoes, there is a need to include additional geological and geophysical data that may indicate the likelihood of future volcanism. We achieve this using Bayesian …


Lithium Abundance And Isotope Systematics Of Forearc Serpentinites, Conical Seamount, Mariana Forearc: Insights Into The Mechanics Of Slab-Mantle Exchange During Subduction, Laurie D. Benton, Jeffrey G. Ryan, Ivan P. Savov Aug 2004

Lithium Abundance And Isotope Systematics Of Forearc Serpentinites, Conical Seamount, Mariana Forearc: Insights Into The Mechanics Of Slab-Mantle Exchange During Subduction, Laurie D. Benton, Jeffrey G. Ryan, Ivan P. Savov

Geology Faculty Publications

[1] Variable lithium contents and contrasting Li isotopic signatures are evident in the serpentininite muds and clasts extruded at Conical Seamount in the Mariana forearc. The muds have high Li contents compared to mantle values (3–7 ppm) and a mean δ7Li value of ∼+6‰. The clasts are generally lower in Li, and δ7Li varies from −6‰ to +10‰, with higher δ7Li correlating broadly to higher lithium contents. The diverse δ7Li in the serpentinite clasts suggests Li exchanges between mantle rocks and evolving slab‐derived fluids from different depths, producing a subarc mantle that is zoned in terms of Li abundances and …