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Forecasting Natural Regeneration Of Sagebrush After Wildfires Using Population Models And Spatial Matching, Andrii Zaiats, Megan E. Cattau, David S. Pilliod, Rongsong Liu, Juan Miguel Requena-Mullor, Trevor Caughlin May 2023

Forecasting Natural Regeneration Of Sagebrush After Wildfires Using Population Models And Spatial Matching, Andrii Zaiats, Megan E. Cattau, David S. Pilliod, Rongsong Liu, Juan Miguel Requena-Mullor, Trevor Caughlin

Human-Environment Systems Research Center Faculty Publications and Presentations

Context Addressing ecosystem degradation in the Anthropocene will require ecological restoration across large spatial extents. Identifying areas where natural regeneration will occur without direct resource investment will improve scalability of restoration actions.

Objectives An ecoregion in need of large scale restoration is the Great Basin of the Western US, where increasingly large and frequent wildfires threaten ecosystem integrity and its foundational shrub species. We develop a framework to forecast where postwildfire regeneration of sagebrush cover (Artemisia spp.) is likely to occur within the burnt areas across the region (>900,000 km2).

Methods First, we parameterized population models …


Effects Of Nonnative Plants On Space-Use In Eastern Box Turtles, Emily Ilene Crago May 2023

Effects Of Nonnative Plants On Space-Use In Eastern Box Turtles, Emily Ilene Crago

Graduate Theses

Introduction of nonnative plants outside their natural range has caused widespread reduction in the abundance and diversity of native plant species. Nonnative plants typically form dense, often monotypic, thickets that affect the ability of animals to find food, reproduce, avoid predation risk, and thermoregulate. By doing so, nonnative plants have the potential to displace resident animals from areas otherwise suitable as animal habitat. However, limited studies have investigated whether resident animals avoid areas dominated by nonnative plants. This study investigated impacts of nonnative plants on eastern box turtles (Terrapene carolina carolina), a species that has been declining throughout their range. …


Biochar As A Lake Management Option For Harmful Algal Blooms: Lab Experiments And Bioassays, Brittany Mc Intyre May 2023

Biochar As A Lake Management Option For Harmful Algal Blooms: Lab Experiments And Bioassays, Brittany Mc Intyre

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are an increasing global concern for water management due to their increased frequency, distribution, and toxin production. In freshwaters the growth of cyanobacteria (commonly known as blue-green algae), due to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment is the primary driver of HABS; these are often referred to as cyanoHABs. The management of cyanoHABs should be focused on in the watershed through best management and conservation practices or the physical, chemical and biomanipulation of the lake or reservoir that is experiencing these blooms. In this study, we examine the use of biochar as an option for the management or treatment …


Evaluation Of Hydrogeochemical Characteristics Of San Joaquin, Tulare, And Mojave Aquifers, Southern California, Maedeh Hassanvand May 2023

Evaluation Of Hydrogeochemical Characteristics Of San Joaquin, Tulare, And Mojave Aquifers, Southern California, Maedeh Hassanvand

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Before making attempts to enhance and manage the quality of water, a thorough understanding of these processes is necessary since the chemical quality of groundwater is impacted by a number of linked processes. This would be more important in arid and semiarid regions like the southern part of California where more rely on groundwater for agriculture and drinking water uses than the other states. As a result, fundamental knowledge of the governing processes of groundwater chemistry is required for effective water resource management. Thus, this study is primarily concerned with three aspects in Mojave, Tulare, and San Joaquin aquifers: The …


An Analysis Of Factors Affecting Municipal Biochar Implementation In Voluntary Carbon Markets, Jadon Basilevac May 2023

An Analysis Of Factors Affecting Municipal Biochar Implementation In Voluntary Carbon Markets, Jadon Basilevac

Department of Environmental Studies: Undergraduate Student Theses

This paper serves as a review article and incorporates elements of survey research in order to identify and address factors inhibiting biochar availability from municipal sequestration projects in voluntary carbon marketplaces. In determining which barriers exist, and devising strategies for solving them, this study can help to expand the role of biochar in mitigating emissions contributing to climate change, and encourage project developers to support municipal biochar projects that provide various co-benefits. To do so, this study addresses how the pyrolysis production process might be made more efficient, economically viable, and see improved public image, the various urban sectors to …


Analyzing The Effects Of Cold Frontal Passage On The Feeding Habits Of Micropterus Salmoides (Largemouth Bass), Ethan Lang May 2023

Analyzing The Effects Of Cold Frontal Passage On The Feeding Habits Of Micropterus Salmoides (Largemouth Bass), Ethan Lang

Department of Environmental Studies: Undergraduate Student Theses

For many decades, it has been theorized as to what happens to the feeding habits of largemouth bass (Micropterus Salmoides) when a significant short term weather change occurs. Here in the midwest and all throughout the United States cold front boundaries are a weather phenomenon that occur on a regular basis. They can occur on a very large or small scale and have a rapid effect on the weather locally. These cold front systems have been looked at as one of the main drivers to having an effect on the feeding habits of largemouth. However, up until this point, any …


Physiological Distancing Affects Climate Change Through Spatial Differences, Janette Williams May 2023

Physiological Distancing Affects Climate Change Through Spatial Differences, Janette Williams

Department of Environmental Studies: Undergraduate Student Theses

Psychological distancing is best described as the human ability to separate ourselves socially, temporally, and spatial and use it to manipulate our perspectives. It is the belief that in order to perceive or understand the information, you have to be within a spatial range(Harvard Business Review,2015). Psychological distancing has been linked to climate change perspectives based on spatial differences. People who are closely affected by climate change and experience more are going to have more ideas and be proactive. The reduced distance by spatial differences correlated with perceptions of climate change. People who are farther from the coast and experience …


Roots Of Passion In Environmental Unl Students, Shane Vrbicky May 2023

Roots Of Passion In Environmental Unl Students, Shane Vrbicky

Department of Environmental Studies: Undergraduate Student Theses

“Passion” is an elusive idea - a simple word invented by man - able to depict vastly different realities and meanings dependent entirely on the user. Highly influential in nature, the simple thought of a passion within human beings can evoke a wide spectrum of strong emotions from pure joy and satisfaction to utter desperation and dread. Sometimes people have never known a life without their passion, guided by a headstrong feeling towards a path they have always dreamed of. Sometimes people can never seem to find passion, not knowing where to look and yet constantly chasing after it. Sometimes …


Investigation Of Microplastics In River Bottom Sediment Along The Musconetcong River, Nicole Perkins May 2023

Investigation Of Microplastics In River Bottom Sediment Along The Musconetcong River, Nicole Perkins

Theses, Dissertations and Culminating Projects

The knowledge of microplastics remains limited since there are scientific challenges in understanding long-term effects and health risks associated with microplastics in all environments. Challenges associated with microplastics investigations include limited approaches to microplastics sampling and analyses, understanding long‐term behavior of microplastics, the organismal and ecosystem health risks, and finding alternatives to using plastic. The research on microplastics has focused mainly on microplastics abundance and distribution in the environment, while their transport and pathways have remained rather understudied. The goal of this study was to expand our knowledge of microplastics in river sediment.

This microplastics investigation consisted of sampling the …


Seeing The Forest And The Trees: Holistic View Of Social Distancing On The Spread Of Covid-19 In China, Danlin Yu, Yaojun Zhang, Jun Meng, Xiaoxi Wang, Linfeng He, Meng Jia, Jie Ouyang, Yu Han, Ge Zhang, Yao Lu May 2023

Seeing The Forest And The Trees: Holistic View Of Social Distancing On The Spread Of Covid-19 In China, Danlin Yu, Yaojun Zhang, Jun Meng, Xiaoxi Wang, Linfeng He, Meng Jia, Jie Ouyang, Yu Han, Ge Zhang, Yao Lu

Department of Earth and Environmental Studies Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

The human social and behavioral activities play significant roles in the spread of COVID-19. Social-distancing centered non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are the best strategies to curb the spread of COVID-19 prior to an effective pharmaceutical or vaccine solution. This study investigates various social-distancing measures’ impact on the spread of COVID-19 using advanced global and novel local geospatial techniques. Social distancing measures are acquired through website analysis, document text analysis, and other big data extraction strategies. A spatial panel regression model and a newly proposed geographically weighted panel regression model are applied to investigate the global and local relationships between the spread …


Evapotranspiration Of Residential Lawns Across The United States, Noortje H. Grijseels, Elizaveta Litvak, Meghan Avolio, Anika R. Bratt, Jeannine Cavender-Bares, Peter M. Groffman, Sarah E. Hobbie, Susannah B. Lerman, Jennifer L. Morse, Multiple Additional Authors May 2023

Evapotranspiration Of Residential Lawns Across The United States, Noortje H. Grijseels, Elizaveta Litvak, Meghan Avolio, Anika R. Bratt, Jeannine Cavender-Bares, Peter M. Groffman, Sarah E. Hobbie, Susannah B. Lerman, Jennifer L. Morse, Multiple Additional Authors

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Despite interest in the contribution of evapotranspiration (ET) of residential turfgrass lawns to household and municipal water budgets across the United States, the spatial and temporal variability of residential lawn ET across large scales is highly uncertain. We measured instantaneous ET (ETinst) of lawns in 79 residential yards in six metropolitan areas: Baltimore, Boston, Miami, Minneapolis-St. Paul (mesic climates), Los Angeles and Phoenix (arid climates). Each yard had one of four landscape types and management practices: traditional lawn-dominated yards with high or low fertilizer input, yards with water-conserving features, and yards with wildlife-friendly features. We measured ETinst …


Partitioning And Microdosimetry Of Plutonium-239 And 55-Iron In Environmental Bacteria Grown In Liquid Cultures, Lisa Manglass May 2023

Partitioning And Microdosimetry Of Plutonium-239 And 55-Iron In Environmental Bacteria Grown In Liquid Cultures, Lisa Manglass

All Dissertations

The work presented herein provides quantitative data related to bacteria exposed in situ to two radionuclides relevant to nuclear sensing: plutonium-239 (239Pu) and iron-55 (55Fe). Originally motivated by the fundamental science underlying biosensing, liquid cultures of Pseudomonas putida and Escherichia coli were exposed to radionuclides over the course of 15-day experimental periods with the intent of gaining insight into the response of these bacteria. An essential component of characterizing or utilizing this response in a meaningful way is an understanding of the dose leading to that response. This dissertation narrows the knowledge gap associated with dose-response …


Analyzing The Effect Of Guided Nature Walks On Human Behavior, Jake Duffy May 2023

Analyzing The Effect Of Guided Nature Walks On Human Behavior, Jake Duffy

Department of Environmental Studies: Undergraduate Student Theses

Several studies have identified a gap in the understanding of what guided nature walks does for the individual person, and the extent to which guided nature walks and interpretive signs improves individual pro-environmental behavior and attitudes. This study surveyed over 300 people on their reactions to certain types of signs and the influence that those signs had on the individuals’ desire to return outdoors. Our results showed an overwhelmingly positive reaction to signs with ecological or systems-based information that could be utilized on their walk, while signs that taught an environmental or historical feature of that area were not appreciated …


Perception Of Nature Based On Childhood Experiences, Kaitlyn Richards May 2023

Perception Of Nature Based On Childhood Experiences, Kaitlyn Richards

Department of Environmental Studies: Undergraduate Student Theses

It is essential that humans view themselves as a part of nature rather than viewing themselves as separate from it. Especially with issues on the rise such as climate change, habitat destruction, and the degradation of natural resources. Childhood experiences with nature are critical in developing pro-environmental behaviors (Duzenli, 2019). Pro-environmental behaviors are defined as attitudes and actions that focus on the improvement of environmental conditions, while also being vigilant of ways to reduce negative impacts on the environment (Tian, 2022).


Gender And Environmental Sustainability: A Cross-National Analysis On Political Representation Of Women And Subsequent State Sustainability, Erin O'Sullivan May 2023

Gender And Environmental Sustainability: A Cross-National Analysis On Political Representation Of Women And Subsequent State Sustainability, Erin O'Sullivan

Department of Environmental Studies: Undergraduate Student Theses

The literature focusing on the relationship between gender and environmental sustainability is vast. Research has focused on how gender relates to pro-sustainable behavior but fails to analyze this beyond individual action. Research has also found positive correlations between women’s representation at a state’s political level and different factors of state sustainability. However, literature has fallen short on analyzing if there is a causal effect between these factors. This study aimed to fill this gap in the literature and analyzes how the ratio of women in parliament in a state affects the state’s environmental sustainability. Although the results showed no statistically …


Examining The Psychology And Human Behavior Of Sustainable Living: The Impact Of Socioeconomic Status On Climate Change Education, Samantha Nielsen May 2023

Examining The Psychology And Human Behavior Of Sustainable Living: The Impact Of Socioeconomic Status On Climate Change Education, Samantha Nielsen

Department of Environmental Studies: Undergraduate Student Theses

Climate change education has become increasingly important as the world faces the challenges of a rapidly changing environment. However, not all individuals have equal access to this education, and socioeconomic status has been identified as a barrier to climate change knowledge. This thesis explores the impact of socioeconomic status on climate change education through a survey-based approach, using the Nebraska Annual Social Indicators Survey to investigate the relationship between income and degree of education with climate change concern and community interaction. The study finds a significant correlation between higher levels of education and climate change concern, as well as greater …


Impact Of The Covid-19 Pandemic On Nebraska State Park Visitation, Bailey Mullins May 2023

Impact Of The Covid-19 Pandemic On Nebraska State Park Visitation, Bailey Mullins

Department of Environmental Studies: Undergraduate Student Theses

The Covid-19 virus was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020 by the World Health Organization. Since then the outdoor recreation habits of the general public have changed due to the constraints and risks of the virus. The first case of Covid-19 in Nebraska was reported in March of 2020. One of the most popular places for recreation in the state of Nebraska is to visit our state parks and recreation areas. The purpose of this research is to determine how the Covid-19 pandemic has impacted visitation at Nebraska state parks and recreation areas. To do this, the Nebraska Game …


Rails To Trails Program: Neighborhood Dynamics In Lincoln, Nebraska, Emma Mccormick May 2023

Rails To Trails Program: Neighborhood Dynamics In Lincoln, Nebraska, Emma Mccormick

Department of Environmental Studies: Undergraduate Student Theses

As cities increasingly move towards creating sustainable, equitable, climate-forward communities, city planners, advocates, and policymakers have begun to focus increasingly on improving access to greenspaces. Studies around the globe have documented the importance of greenspace for multiple individual, group, and community level outcomes. Simultaneously, extant research suggests that access to greenspaces frequently reflects social inequality in urban spaces, stratifying such access by race and socioeconomic composition of neighborhoods. However, few research projects have examined potential unintended consequences, such as contemporary housing issues like gentrification, that greenspaces can create for community infrastructure here in Lincoln, Nebraska.


Evaluating Ecosystem Health Of The Salt Creek Basin Through Two-Eyed Seeing, Shelby Serritella May 2023

Evaluating Ecosystem Health Of The Salt Creek Basin Through Two-Eyed Seeing, Shelby Serritella

Department of Environmental Studies: Undergraduate Student Theses

Few instances of prior research into socio-ecological health have brought together both Indigenous Knowledge Systems and Western science, especially in Nebraska. This study attempts to fill this gap in Lancaster County, Nebraska by using “Two-Eyed Seeing”. This equitably combines both Indigenous Knowledge Systems (qualitative data), obtained through oral interviews with Indigenous community members, and Western science (quantitative data), obtained through USGS, UNL, and U.S. Drought Monitor databases, to assess ecosystem health. Changes to the Salt Creek Basin were collected and analyzed through this Two-Eyed Seeing framework. Results found that there are high levels of consensus between both knowledge systems regarding …


The Decline Of Upland Birds In Nebraska: Maximizing Limited Habitat, Hunter Tesarek May 2023

The Decline Of Upland Birds In Nebraska: Maximizing Limited Habitat, Hunter Tesarek

Department of Environmental Studies: Undergraduate Student Theses

Ring-necked Pheasants were introduced into the United States around 150 years ago and since then have become an important species both culturally and economically. There population health is of growing concern as upland bird populations in much of the United States have been declining rapidly throughout the latter half of the last century. In Nebraska millions of acres have been transformed from habitat that benefits upland birds into row crop agriculture, mostly in the form of corn and soybeans. Rural Mail Carrier Surveys conducted for pheasants from 1960 through 2020 in comparison to change in acres harvested depict the relationship …


Identifying A Consumer–Producer Agricultural Knowledge Gap, Aspen Rittgarn May 2023

Identifying A Consumer–Producer Agricultural Knowledge Gap, Aspen Rittgarn

Department of Environmental Studies: Undergraduate Student Theses

The purpose of this paper and online survey was to see if an agricultural knowledge gap between consumers and producers be found. Low agricultural literacy rates can lead to misconceptions of the agriculture industry, unhealthy food choices, environmentally unfriendly product choices, food waste, etc. The hypothesis for this thesis is that those born in the mid1960s to early 1980s (Generation X) will be the start of an increased knowledge gap. The survey was compiled of both qualitative and quantitative questions and questions were inspired by American Farm Bureau’s AITC Benchmarks. Responses were analyzed and the results revealed that my participants …


Sust 489 Capstone: Library Of Things Project, Jadyn Ford, Lewis Hall, Dan Hanson, Matthew Helm, Hanah Long, Devin Mcginley, Breana Spinler, Kacy Tubbs May 2023

Sust 489 Capstone: Library Of Things Project, Jadyn Ford, Lewis Hall, Dan Hanson, Matthew Helm, Hanah Long, Devin Mcginley, Breana Spinler, Kacy Tubbs

Sustainability & Environment Projects

Each year, the Sustainability 489 Capstone class works with a community partner whose needs align with the initiatives of the Department of Sustainability. This year, the SUST 489 class received a recommendation from Dr. Joe Kantenbacher to work with the Vermilion Public Library. Our class worked with Daniel Burniston, Vermillion Public Library Director, to best identify the needs of the Vermillion community. The class, our library partners, and our professor Dr. Meghann Jarchow worked together to decide upon a Library of Things project, where we will assist the library in providing items for library patrons to check out.


Development Of Three Novel Edna Assays For Detecting Coastal Sharks, Kristina Dawn Flanigan May 2023

Development Of Three Novel Edna Assays For Detecting Coastal Sharks, Kristina Dawn Flanigan

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis is an emerging, non-invasive community monitoring tool. This study aimed to determine if eDNA methods can be reliably used in a large brackish, partially mixed estuary by developing and testing three novel eDNA primers, for Sandbar Sharks (Carcharhinus plumbeus), Blacknose Sharks (Carcharhinus acronotus), and Bonnetheads (Sphyrna tiburo). These primers were designed to target 109, 156, and 120 base pair (bp) fragments, respectively, of the highly conserved NAD2 gene in the mitochondrial genome of each species. Primer function was validated through testing against 102 known genomic source samples and 25 filtered water samples from aquaria in which …


Building Community Resiliency Against Disasters, Zachary L. Doering May 2023

Building Community Resiliency Against Disasters, Zachary L. Doering

Undergraduate Honors Thesis Collection

Disasters impact people in many different places around the world. The impact to communities by disasters is shaped by their constructed vulnerability. The goal of this research project was to better understand how the vulnerability and resiliency of different communities was shaped at six different sites across the U.S. and to construct a collection of best practices to raise the resiliency of populations and locations in the face of many different forms of possible disasters in the future. These concepts and conclusions were drawn from internet research of the chosen sites. Phase 1 of the research determined noteworthy sites and …


Trace Dna Detection Using Diamond Dye: A Recovery Technique To Yield More Dna, Leah Davis May 2023

Trace Dna Detection Using Diamond Dye: A Recovery Technique To Yield More Dna, Leah Davis

Master's Theses

This study aspires to find a new screening approach to trace DNA recovery techniques to yield a higher quantity of trace DNA from larger items of evidence. It takes the path of visualizing trace DNA on items of evidence with potential DNA so analysts can swab a more localized area rather than attempting to recover trace DNA through the general swabbing technique currently used for trace DNA recovery. The first and second parts consisted of observing trace DNA interaction with Diamond Dye on porous and non-porous surfaces.

The third part involved applying the Diamond Dye solution by spraying it onto …


Seasonal Variations In Nutrient And Total Suspended Solids Sources And Fluxes In Rivers Of Northern New Jersey And Newark Bay, Usa, Jing Nie May 2023

Seasonal Variations In Nutrient And Total Suspended Solids Sources And Fluxes In Rivers Of Northern New Jersey And Newark Bay, Usa, Jing Nie

Theses, Dissertations and Culminating Projects

In recent decades, aquatic systems have experienced major problems with water quality due to high nutrient concentrations from both point and non-point sources resulting from industrialization, urbanization, and population growth. While nutrient pollution due to land use change cannot be ignored, point sources such as combined sewer overflows and discharging sites have also contributed to the problem. Integrated hydrodynamic, chemical, and biological models have been developed to simulate nutrient transportation from both sources. This paper reviews and analyzes water quality data from published literature to evaluate nutrient pollution in aquatic systems and emphasizes the need for a continuously developed integrated …


The Fate Of Fraxinus Spp. In New Jersey : A Physioeconomic Evaluation Of The Forest System And Infrastructure Implications, Erik W. Lyttek May 2023

The Fate Of Fraxinus Spp. In New Jersey : A Physioeconomic Evaluation Of The Forest System And Infrastructure Implications, Erik W. Lyttek

Theses, Dissertations and Culminating Projects

Though the impacts of pest infestation on forested ecosystems vary, the natural factors that facilitate outbreaks are of concern across multiple disciplines across the USA, affecting such diverse fields as economics, ecology, hydrology, atmospheric sciences, and pedology. Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) is a typical example of an aggressive invasive forest pest; it has proven difficult to eliminate, resistant to natural predators, and damaging to local flora. EAB has recently proliferated through the northern and mid-western forests of the USA, devastating the native population of ash trees (Fraxinus spp.), and has invaded an estimated 28% of all susceptible trees. In New …


Assessment Of Phytoplankton Assemblages And Harmful Algal Blooms In New Jersey, Yaritza Acosta Caraballo May 2023

Assessment Of Phytoplankton Assemblages And Harmful Algal Blooms In New Jersey, Yaritza Acosta Caraballo

Theses, Dissertations and Culminating Projects

Urbanization, industrialization, and climate change have played a major role in the pollution of waterways, leading to a global increasing trend of harmful algal blooms (HAB) while jeopardizing water quality. Phytoplankton and HAB were evaluated within the highly urbanized and historically polluted state of New Jersey to help provide statewide baseline data for HAB and water quality management. A total of three studies were included in this dissertation. In the first study, phytoplankton communities were characterized in freshwaters of New Jersey during the cyanobacterial HAB season and their relationships to water quality at both statewide and ecoregion levels were examined. …


Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet Dynamics In The Pliocene From Sedimentological Interpretation Of Ocean Drilling Program Site 1097, Ridley Joseph May 2023

Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet Dynamics In The Pliocene From Sedimentological Interpretation Of Ocean Drilling Program Site 1097, Ridley Joseph

Theses, Dissertations and Culminating Projects

Studying ice sheet behavior during the Pliocene Epoch is of great importance. The Early Pliocene was characterized by warm climatic conditions, similar carbon dioxide levels and high sea levels compared to the present. This time frame provides essential information on the foreseeable future of Earth’s cryosphere, particularly if climate change continues to persist. The sedimentary record of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet (APIS) is the focus of this study. At Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1097, cores were drilled into Pliocene strata at a shallow depth on the Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf. Sedimentary facies were interpreted, and twenty samples were …


Potential Of Increased Thermal Tolerance As A Response To Acute Heat Stress In A Disease-Transmitting Mosquito Species, Nicole Ashley Scanlon May 2023

Potential Of Increased Thermal Tolerance As A Response To Acute Heat Stress In A Disease-Transmitting Mosquito Species, Nicole Ashley Scanlon

Theses, Dissertations and Culminating Projects

Each year hundreds of millions of people are infected with mosquito-borne illnesses. West Nile Virus is the leading cause of mosquito-borne diseases in the United States (McDonald et al., 2021). The first case of West Nile Virus was detected in the United States in 1999 (Sejvar, 2003). Since that time the number of cases has dramatically risen. Mosquitoes are ectotherms which means their body temperature is dependent on the thermal conditions outside of their body. Because of this they are very sensitive to changes in their environment. The Earth’s average temperature has been slowly but steadily rising. This small but …