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Reduction Of Potential Fire Behavior In Wildland-Urban Interface Communities In Southern California: A Collaborative Approach, Christopher Dicus, Michael E. Scott Mar 2006

Reduction Of Potential Fire Behavior In Wildland-Urban Interface Communities In Southern California: A Collaborative Approach, Christopher Dicus, Michael E. Scott

Natural Resources Management and Environmental Sciences

This manuscript details a collaborative effort that reduced the risk of wildfire in an affluent, wildland-urban interface community in southern California while simultaneously minimizing the environmental impact to the site. FARSITE simulations illustrated the potential threat to the community of Rancho Santa Fe in San Diego County, California, where multimillion-dollar homes were located immediately above a designated open space area that consisted primarily of 60-year-old, decadent chaparral. Post-treatment fire behavior simulations demonstrated the potential ability to moderate fire behavior. Results of the fire behavior modeling led to a recognition for the need for fuels treatments by both homeowners and regulatory …


Coastal Processes And Anthropogenic Factors Influencing The Geomorphic Evolution Of Weedon Island, Florida, Jeanne Lambert Mar 2006

Coastal Processes And Anthropogenic Factors Influencing The Geomorphic Evolution Of Weedon Island, Florida, Jeanne Lambert

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Weedon Island, a peninsula located on the western inner shoreline of Tampa Bay, Florida, is the location of a collaborative geological and archaeological project that aims to relate the present day geomorphology to natural processes and human occupational activity during the middle to late Holocene. The area is known for extensive archaeological sites, which were originally investigated in the 1920s, although they have received relatively little scientific attention during most of the last century. We hypothesize that activities associated with pre-historic human occupation of Weedon Island at various times during the last ca. 5,000 years influenced the geomorphic evolution of …


A Multi-Site Analysis Of Random Error In Tower-Based Measurements Of Carbon And Energy Fluxes, Andrew D. Richardson, David Y. Hollinger, George C. Burba, Kenneth J. Davis, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Gabriel G. Katul, J. William Munger, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Paul C. Stoy, Andrew E. Suyker, Shashi Verma, Steven C. Wofsy Mar 2006

A Multi-Site Analysis Of Random Error In Tower-Based Measurements Of Carbon And Energy Fluxes, Andrew D. Richardson, David Y. Hollinger, George C. Burba, Kenneth J. Davis, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Gabriel G. Katul, J. William Munger, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Paul C. Stoy, Andrew E. Suyker, Shashi Verma, Steven C. Wofsy

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Measured surface-atmosphere fluxes of energy (sensible heat, H, and latent heat, LE) and CO2 (FCO2) represent the ‘‘true’’ flux plus or minus potential random and systematic measurement errors. Here, we use data from seven sites in the AmeriFlux network, including five forested sites (two of which include “tall tower” instrumentation), one grassland site, and one agricultural site, to conduct a cross-site analysis of random flux error. Quantification of this uncertainty is a prerequisite to model-data synthesis (data assimilation) and for defining confidence intervals on annual sums of net ecosystem exchange or making statistically valid comparisons between …


Multiple Breeding Strategies In The Swift Fox, Vulpes Velox, Ann M. Kitchen, Eric M. Gese, Lisette P. Waits, Seija M. Karki, Edward R. Schauster Mar 2006

Multiple Breeding Strategies In The Swift Fox, Vulpes Velox, Ann M. Kitchen, Eric M. Gese, Lisette P. Waits, Seija M. Karki, Edward R. Schauster

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Little is known of the mating system of the swift fox or how it compares to other socially monogamous mammals. In a 4-year study of 188 swift foxes, we used microsatellite analysis at 11 loci along with spatial observations to investigate swift fox mating strategies. The mating strategies used by swift foxes were highly diverse. Previous field observations have indicated that the swift fox is socially monogamous. However, we found that extrapair mating was a common breeding strategy; 52% of offspring were sired by a male that was not the mate of their mother. There was also variation in the …


Comparative Analysis Of Biosurveillance Methodologies, David M. Kempisty Mar 2006

Comparative Analysis Of Biosurveillance Methodologies, David M. Kempisty

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research is to compare two different biosurveillance methodologies: BioWatch and "A Hot Idea". BioWatch is fielded and operating in major US cities today. Air samples are collected on filter paper and analyzed for the presence of harmful biological agents. "A Hot Idea" is an evolving methodology using the human body's immune response to identify the onset of infection from a harmful pathogen. Detecting a temperature increase, using infrared thermographers, in a statistically significant portion of population would allow earlier identification of a biological release, accelerating initiation of response actions. A selected population including policemen, firemen, and …


Suggestions For Contributors And Editorial Policy (The Prairie Naturalist), Elmer J. Finck, Hilary Gillock Mar 2006

Suggestions For Contributors And Editorial Policy (The Prairie Naturalist), Elmer J. Finck, Hilary Gillock

The Prairie Naturalist

Suggestions for contributors and editorial policy for The Prairie Naturalist from March 2006, Volume 38, Issue 1.


Analysis Of Bacterial Population And Distribution In The Developing Strata Of A Constructed Wetland Used For Chlorinated Ethene Bioremediation, Milton J. Clausen Jr. Mar 2006

Analysis Of Bacterial Population And Distribution In The Developing Strata Of A Constructed Wetland Used For Chlorinated Ethene Bioremediation, Milton J. Clausen Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

Chlorinated hydrocarbons and their degradation products are among of the most common organic groundwater contaminates in the United States. These compounds attack the central nervous system in animals and can affect the photosynthesis of plants. These compounds are also resistant to degradation in the environment and, because of this, pose a risk to any ecosystem in which they are present. This study identified the dominant microbial species in a constructed treatment wetland at Wright-Patterson AFB, Dayton, Ohio using 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis. Samples were taken from three different depths and during each of the four seasons. These samples were …


Accuracy Of Aerial Telemetry Locations In Mountainous Terrain, Glen F. Gantz, L. Charles Stoddart, Frederick F. Knowlton Feb 2006

Accuracy Of Aerial Telemetry Locations In Mountainous Terrain, Glen F. Gantz, L. Charles Stoddart, Frederick F. Knowlton

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Aerial telemetry is commonly used to locate wildlife in remote areas (Gilmer et al. 1981, White and Garrott 1990, Samuel and Fuller 1996). If locations are used to determine home range, habitat use, or similar parameters, error associated with locations must be estimated (Cederlund et al. 1979, Laundre et al. 1987, White and Garrott 1990, Carrel et al. 1997).

Typically, aerial locations are subject to 2 sources of error. If the transmitter-equipped animals are not sighted from the aircraft, their ground location must be estimated. Then, the estimated ground location must be identified on a map and recorded. The combined …


Efficacy Of Scent Dogs In Detecting Black-Footed Ferrets At A Reintroduction Site In South Dakota, Sara A. Reindl-Thompson, John A. Shivik, Alice Whitelaw, Aimee Hurt, Kenneth F. Higgins Feb 2006

Efficacy Of Scent Dogs In Detecting Black-Footed Ferrets At A Reintroduction Site In South Dakota, Sara A. Reindl-Thompson, John A. Shivik, Alice Whitelaw, Aimee Hurt, Kenneth F. Higgins

United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Endangered black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes) are difficult to monitor because of their nocturnal and fossorial habits, but land use and management are influenced by their potential presence. Detector dogs have been suggested as a method for determining ferret presence, although its efficacy has not been thoroughly investigated. We evaluated 2 dogs trained specifically for determining ferret presence in field evaluations conducted in black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies at the Conata Basin reintroduction site in South Dakota, USA, during September and October 2003. We tested the dogs on 4 test colonies that had no record of …


Crop Updates 2006 - Farming Systems, Wayne Pluske, Bill Bowden, Craig Scanlan, Stephen Davies, Chris Gazey, Peter Tozer, Derk Bakker, Louise Barton, David Gatter, Renee Buck, Daniel Murphy, Christoph Hinz, Bill Porter, Meredith Fairbanks, Nicolyn Short, Ian Foster, James Fisher, Doug Abrecht, Mario D'Antuono, Tracey M. Gianatti, Paul Carmody, Frank D'Amden, Rick Llewellyn, Michael Burton, Caroline Peek, Nadine Eva, Chris Carter, Megan Abrahams, Andrew Blake, Paul Blackwell, Sylvian Pottier, Michael Robertson, Greg Lyle, Lisa Brennan, Tony J. Vyn, Simon Teakle, Peter Norris, Jeff Russell, James Fisher, Roy Murray-Prior, Deb Pritchard, Mike Collins, Greg Hamilton, Rob Hetherington, Andrew Van Burgel, Cliff Spann Feb 2006

Crop Updates 2006 - Farming Systems, Wayne Pluske, Bill Bowden, Craig Scanlan, Stephen Davies, Chris Gazey, Peter Tozer, Derk Bakker, Louise Barton, David Gatter, Renee Buck, Daniel Murphy, Christoph Hinz, Bill Porter, Meredith Fairbanks, Nicolyn Short, Ian Foster, James Fisher, Doug Abrecht, Mario D'Antuono, Tracey M. Gianatti, Paul Carmody, Frank D'Amden, Rick Llewellyn, Michael Burton, Caroline Peek, Nadine Eva, Chris Carter, Megan Abrahams, Andrew Blake, Paul Blackwell, Sylvian Pottier, Michael Robertson, Greg Lyle, Lisa Brennan, Tony J. Vyn, Simon Teakle, Peter Norris, Jeff Russell, James Fisher, Roy Murray-Prior, Deb Pritchard, Mike Collins, Greg Hamilton, Rob Hetherington, Andrew Van Burgel, Cliff Spann

Crop Updates

This session covers nineteen papers from different authors:

SOIL AND NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT

1. Inve$tigating fertili$er inve$tment, Wayne Pluske, Nutrient Management Systems

2. KASM, the potassium in Agricultural System Model,Bill Bowden and Craig Scanlan, DAWA Northam and UWA, School of Earth and Geographical Sciences

3. Long term productivity and economic benefits of subsurface acidity management from surface and subsurface liming, Stephen Davies, Chris Gazey and Peter Tozer, Department of Agriculture

4. Furrow and ridges to prevent waterlogging, Dr Derk Bakker, Department of Agriculture

5. Nitrous oxide emissions from a cropped soil in Western Australia, Louise Barton1 …


Fisheries Research Report No. 153 - A 12-Month Survey Of Recreational Fishing In The Pilbara Region Of Western Australia During 1999-2000, P C. Williamson, Neil R. Sumner, B E. Malseed Feb 2006

Fisheries Research Report No. 153 - A 12-Month Survey Of Recreational Fishing In The Pilbara Region Of Western Australia During 1999-2000, P C. Williamson, Neil R. Sumner, B E. Malseed

Fisheries Research Reports

A 12-month creel survey of recreational boat-based and shore-based fishing in the Pilbara region (Onslow to Broome inclusive) of Western Australia was conducted between December 1999 and November 2000. During the survey 3,085 boat crews were interviewed at public boat ramps when they returned from their fishing trips. Patrols conducted along the coastline interviewed 73 groups of boat-based fishers and 569 groups of shore-based fishers at fishing locations and camp sites.

The total annual recreational fishing effort for the Pilbara region was estimated to be 201,000 fisher days (95%CI: 193,000 – 210,000). This comprised 109,000 fisher days by boats launched …


Sustainable Development And National Security, Sanford E. Gaines Feb 2006

Sustainable Development And National Security, Sanford E. Gaines

William & Mary Environmental Law and Policy Review

No abstract provided.


Environmental Justice Education And Atmospheric Particulate Analysis In Urban Environmental Health Policy Development : Indoor Airborne Particulate Concentrations In Preschools Of Asthmatic Children In Newark, Rita L. Thornton Jan 2006

Environmental Justice Education And Atmospheric Particulate Analysis In Urban Environmental Health Policy Development : Indoor Airborne Particulate Concentrations In Preschools Of Asthmatic Children In Newark, Rita L. Thornton

Dissertations

Analysis suggests that several residential areas in Newark, New Jersey (USA) have Black/African-American and Hispanic populations, which may be "at high risk" with respect to the adverse health effects of particulate air pollution. This study analyzes the community locations and evaluates literature and other available air pollution data for the target communities in the city of Newark. The study focuses on asthma or reactive airway diseases as a target health risk. It also performs data collection on particulate pollutants and levels of trace metals in particulate matter in target communities and schools of preschool children in two of the five …


Management Strategies In The Wildland-Urban Interface Of Southern California And Their Effect On Fire Behavior And Environmental Impacts, Christopher Dicus Jan 2006

Management Strategies In The Wildland-Urban Interface Of Southern California And Their Effect On Fire Behavior And Environmental Impacts, Christopher Dicus

Natural Resources Management and Environmental Sciences

This paper discusses varying management strategies in wildland-urban interface communities of southern California in terms of their effects on potential fire behavior and residual environmental impacts. A century of fire exclusion policies there and throughout the United States has led to immense fuel loading and declining ecosystem health, which coupled with a burgeoning population relocating to wildland areas, has annually heightened the threat of devastating wildfires. Successful management strategies must consider elements of suppression needs, community education, construction and development standards, and vegetation manipulation, each of which will vary dependant on the ecosystem and socioeconomic conditions of the area considered. …


A Convective Line With Leading Stratiform Precipitation From Bamex, Brandom Storm, Matthew D. Parker, David P. Jorgensen Jan 2006

A Convective Line With Leading Stratiform Precipitation From Bamex, Brandom Storm, Matthew D. Parker, David P. Jorgensen

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

On 31 May 2003, a front-fed convective line with leading stratiform precipitation (FFLS) was observed during the Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex Experiment (BAMEX). The high-resolution BAMEX measurements provided one of the first opportunities to thoroughly observe the characteristics of an FFLS system. The 31 May system had an overturning updraft during its early stages, and produced leading stratiform precipitation. As the system matured, a jump updraft developed and the system began to produce trailing stratiform precipitation. It appears that this transition was facilitated by a local decrease in the low-level line-perpendicular vertical wind shear over time, as well …


Severe Convective Wind Environments, Evan L. Kuchera, Matthew D. Parker Jan 2006

Severe Convective Wind Environments, Evan L. Kuchera, Matthew D. Parker

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Nontornadic thunderstorm winds from long-lived, widespread convective windstorms can have a tremendous impact on human lives and property. To examine environments that support damaging wind producing convection, sounding parameters from Rapid Update Cycle model analyses (at 3-hourly intervals) from 2003 were compared with 7055 reports of damaging winds and 377 081 occurrences of lightning. Ground- relative wind velocity was the most effective at discriminating between damaging and nondamaging wind convective environments. Steep surface-based lapse rates (a traditional damaging wind parameter) gener- ally did not discriminate between damaging and nondamaging wind convective environments. Other pa- rameters, such as convective available potential …


Assessing Stream-Aquifer Interactions Through Inverse Modeling Of Flow Routing, Jozsef Szilagyi, Marc B. Parlange, Gabor Balint Jan 2006

Assessing Stream-Aquifer Interactions Through Inverse Modeling Of Flow Routing, Jozsef Szilagyi, Marc B. Parlange, Gabor Balint

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.


Discussion Of "Estimation Of The Water Balance Using Observed Soil Water In The Nebraska Sandhills" By V. Sridhar And K.G. Hubbard, Jozsef Szilagyi Jan 2006

Discussion Of "Estimation Of The Water Balance Using Observed Soil Water In The Nebraska Sandhills" By V. Sridhar And K.G. Hubbard, Jozsef Szilagyi

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.


Absorption Properties Of Dissolved And Particulate Matter In Turbid Productive Inland Lakes, Giorgio Dall'olmo, Anatoly A. Gitelson Jan 2006

Absorption Properties Of Dissolved And Particulate Matter In Turbid Productive Inland Lakes, Giorgio Dall'olmo, Anatoly A. Gitelson

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The objective of this study is to extend the knowledge on the absorption properties of turbid productive lakes by describing the spectral characteristics of aCDOM, anap and aφ spectra measured in an agriculturally dominated region of North America (Nebraska, USA).


Relationship Between Gross Primary Production And Chlorophyll Content In Crops: Implications For The Synoptic Monitoring Of Vegetation Productivity, Anatoly A. Gitelson, Andrés Viña, Shashi Verma, Donald C. Rundquist, Timothy J. Arkebauer, Galina P. Keydan, Bryan Leavitt, Veronica Ciganda, George G. Burba, Andrew E. Suyker Jan 2006

Relationship Between Gross Primary Production And Chlorophyll Content In Crops: Implications For The Synoptic Monitoring Of Vegetation Productivity, Anatoly A. Gitelson, Andrés Viña, Shashi Verma, Donald C. Rundquist, Timothy J. Arkebauer, Galina P. Keydan, Bryan Leavitt, Veronica Ciganda, George G. Burba, Andrew E. Suyker

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Accurate estimation of spatially distributed CO2 fluxes is of great importance for regional and global studies of carbon balance. We applied a recently developed technique for remote estimation of crop chlorophyll content to assess gross primary production (GPP). The technique is based on reflectance in two spectral channels: the near-infrared and either the green or the red-edge. We have found that in irrigated and rainfed crops (maize and soybean), midday GPP is closely related to total crop chlorophyll content. The technique provided accurate estimations of midday GPP in both crops under rainfed and irrigated conditions with root mean square error …


Optimal Management Of Groundwater Over Space And Time, Nicholas Brozovic, David L. Sunding, David Zilberman Jan 2006

Optimal Management Of Groundwater Over Space And Time, Nicholas Brozovic, David L. Sunding, David Zilberman

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

For nearly half a century, groundwater has been portrayed in the economic literature as a typical common property resource. Numerous studies of groundwater extraction have analyzed the externalities imposed by users on each other. A large body of work offers clear prescriptions in the form of optimal policy instruments, and a similarly large body of work advocates the needlessness of any centralized intervention. Yet existing theoretical models of groundwater extraction implicitly make two strong assumptions about the underlying behavior of the resource. First, the spatial distribution of resource users is assumed to be irrelevant. Second, path-independence of the resource is …


Determining Biogeochemical Assemblages On The Stony River, Grant County, Wv, Using Fuzzy C-Means And K-Nearest Neighbors Clustering, M. Joseph Hughes Jan 2006

Determining Biogeochemical Assemblages On The Stony River, Grant County, Wv, Using Fuzzy C-Means And K-Nearest Neighbors Clustering, M. Joseph Hughes

Theses, Dissertations and Capstones

Periphyton assemblages were assessed on the Stony River, a high-gradient stream in the Potomac drainage of Grant County, WV. Periphyton samples were collected from nine sites along the mainstem and in two tributaries. Chlorophyll-a, dry weight, taxonomic identifications, and bioaccumulated metals concentrations data were compiled. These data were related to water quality parameters measured at each site during the study. Fuzzy C-means and k-nearest neighbor clustering on the combined, normalized dataset produced similar results. Clustering separated species occurring in each tributary from each other and those dominating the mainstem. Nearly every bioaccumulated metal was associated with one of these tributary …


Energy – The Not-So Bottomless Oil Well And The Alternatives, P.T. Vasudevan Jan 2006

Energy – The Not-So Bottomless Oil Well And The Alternatives, P.T. Vasudevan

The University Dialogue

This essay examines both sides of the “Hubbert’s peak” debate and their implications for energy policy. If there is a strong case for governments to wean their economies of oil, how do they do it? What low-carbon or alternative technologies bear watching? How will these technologies affect the environment? How long will the world remain reliant on oil considering that industries are 98% dependent on petroleum products?


Geographical Information System Analysis Of Great Blue Heron (Ardea Herodias) Colony Site Selection In Northeastern Indiana, Jason M. Kauffman Jan 2006

Geographical Information System Analysis Of Great Blue Heron (Ardea Herodias) Colony Site Selection In Northeastern Indiana, Jason M. Kauffman

Master of Environmental Science (MES) Theses

Seventeen Great Blue Heron (Ardea herodias) nesting colonies were studied in northeastern Indiana to determine which natural and human variables, within 15 km of each heronry, correlated with the size and location of this bird’s nesting sites. The data collected in the field and with ArcMap, a Geographical Information System program, included: the types and distances to human disturbances and water/foraging sources; wetland size and type; the height, dbh, and species of nesting trees; and the number of active and total nests. This information was used to produce an individual map for each heronry as well as a …


The H5n1 Avian Influenza Virus: Globalization, Climate Change, And Other Anthropogenic Factors In New Emergent Diseases, Quan Luong Jan 2006

The H5n1 Avian Influenza Virus: Globalization, Climate Change, And Other Anthropogenic Factors In New Emergent Diseases, Quan Luong

Student Theses 2001-2013

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An Examination Of External Influences Imbedded In The Historical Snow Data Of Utah, Randall P. Julander, Michael Bricco Jan 2006

An Examination Of External Influences Imbedded In The Historical Snow Data Of Utah, Randall P. Julander, Michael Bricco

All U.S. Government Documents (Utah Regional Depository)

Snowpack data collection has a long and storied history in Utah as well as the western United States. Many researchers use historical snow course data for various applications ranging from water supply forecasting to climate change. These data are far from a perfect data set and data users should know the errors and limitations within them. In the current setting, only those collecting the data have access to the raw data and the site biographical information. In Utah, records extend back to at least 1912. Systematic measurements began in the mid 1920's with many long term snow courses established at …


Assessment Of Western Rock Lobster Strategic Management Options. How Do Quota Management Systems Work In Rock Lobster Fisheries? Vol. 4, Tim Bray, Steven Gill, Ron Edwards Jan 2006

Assessment Of Western Rock Lobster Strategic Management Options. How Do Quota Management Systems Work In Rock Lobster Fisheries? Vol. 4, Tim Bray, Steven Gill, Ron Edwards

Fisheries Management Papers

Quota management systems are now in place for the New Zealand, Tasmanian and South Australian rock lobster fisheries. New Zealand was the first to move to QMS (1989), followed by the Southern Zone of South Australia (1993), Tasmania (1998) and Northern Zone South Australia (2001). As part of a review of the system of management used for the West Coast Rock Lobster Fishery, a West Australian delegation visited New Zealand, Tasmania and South Australia in 2004 to learn more about the management systems in place for their respective rock lobster fisheries.


Soil-Landscapes Of Western Australia's Rangelands And Arid Interior, Peter J. Tille Jan 2006

Soil-Landscapes Of Western Australia's Rangelands And Arid Interior, Peter J. Tille

Resource management technical reports

This report documents the process of placing the most recent and detailed mapping of Western Australia's Rangelands and Arid interior that is available into a hierarchy of soil-landscape mapping units. It also provides descriptions of the soil-landscape regions, provinces and zones identified.


Predicting The Percent Live Cover Of Corals: An In Situ Remote Sensing Approach, Deepak R. Mishra, Sunil Narumalani, Ronald Bahl, D. Rundquist, Merlin P. Lawson Jan 2006

Predicting The Percent Live Cover Of Corals: An In Situ Remote Sensing Approach, Deepak R. Mishra, Sunil Narumalani, Ronald Bahl, D. Rundquist, Merlin P. Lawson

Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies: Publications

Percent reflectance of corals is perhaps the most important remotely sensed data that can be related to their biophysical properties. Because most of the biophysical variables of corals (i.e., pigment content, live cover and algal overgrowth) are related to their reflectance spectra, the analysis and inversion of the spectra may provide an account of these variables. Our research was aimed at determining the relationship between the percent live cover and reflectance of corals. Two wavelength bands (405–425 nm, and 590–600 nm) were identified to establish the relationship. A linear relationship was observed, which showed higher correlation (R2 = …


Evaluation Of The National Weather Service Operational Hydrologic Model And Forecasts For The American River Basin, Eylon Shamir, Theresa M. Carpenter, Peter Fickenscher, Konstantine P. Georgakakos Jan 2006

Evaluation Of The National Weather Service Operational Hydrologic Model And Forecasts For The American River Basin, Eylon Shamir, Theresa M. Carpenter, Peter Fickenscher, Konstantine P. Georgakakos

United States Department of Commerce: Staff Publications

This paper evaluates the National Weather Service operational hydrologic model and operational flow forecasts for several subbasins of the American River. The evaluation includes: (1) the quality of the 6-h operational flow forecasts with up to 5 days lead time; (2) the hydrologic model ability to reproduce observed mean daily flows; and (3) the reliability of the ensemble streamflow predictions of the hydrologic model to reproduce extremes of the monthly volume of full natural flow to Folsom Lake. The results indicate that the model represents the observed flow record well for sites and/or flow ranges unaffected by upstream regulation. Real …