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Big Data And Inflation Forecasting In Nigeria: A Text Mining Application., M. A. Adebiyi, A. O. Adenuga, T. S. Olusegun, O. O. Mbutor Mar 2022

Big Data And Inflation Forecasting In Nigeria: A Text Mining Application., M. A. Adebiyi, A. O. Adenuga, T. S. Olusegun, O. O. Mbutor

Economic and Financial Review

The success of monetary policy is substantially predicated on the availability of reliable forecast of inflation. However, the shocks arising from COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war have brought about significant economic uncertainties; thus, necessitating the fine-tuning of existing forecasting models of the Central Bank of Nigeria. This study explores the usefulness of public sentiments obtained using machine learning methods to improve the predictive power of the existing short-term inflation forecasting model (STIF) in Nigeria. Findings indicate that, for all components of inflation, models that include the computed sentiment index perform better in both in-sample and out-sample forecasts than those excluding …

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Twin Deficits In Nigeria: Where Does The Exchange Rate Fit?, G. K. Sanni, B. A. Gaiya, V. O. Aliyu, S. N. Okafor Mar 2022

Twin Deficits In Nigeria: Where Does The Exchange Rate Fit?, G. K. Sanni, B. A. Gaiya, V. O. Aliyu, S. N. Okafor

Economic and Financial Review

This study investigates the twin deficits hypothesis for Nigeria while accounting for the role of exchange rate. The study utilises annual data series spanning 1981 to 2019 and the ARDL modelling technique for the estimations. Among other findings, the study reveals the existence of a bi-directional causation between current account deficit and fiscal deficit. Similarly, a positive relationship was seen to exist between current account balance and fiscal balance in both the short-run and long-run during periods of exchange rate appreciation and depreciation, thus confirming the role of exchange rate in the twin deficit hypothesis in Nigeria. The study recommends …

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An Exploratory Analysis Of Time Series Econometric Data For Retention Forecasting Using Deep Learning, John C. O'Donnell Mar 2022

An Exploratory Analysis Of Time Series Econometric Data For Retention Forecasting Using Deep Learning, John C. O'Donnell

Theses and Dissertations

Officer retention in the Air Force has been researched many times in an attempt to better predict the personnel needs of the Air Force for the future. There has been previous work done in regards to specific AFSCs and how their retention compares to specific yet similar private sector jobs. This study considers different econometric time series statistics as a feature space and an average Air Force officer separation rate as the response variable for the multivariate time series analysis deep learning techniques. The econometric indicators used in this study are New Business Formations, New Durable Good Orders, and the …

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Implications Of The African Continental Free Trade Area For Nigeria’S Economic Growth, O. S. Aigheyisi, M. A. Iyoha Mar 2022

Implications Of The African Continental Free Trade Area For Nigeria’S Economic Growth, O. S. Aigheyisi, M. A. Iyoha

Economic and Financial Review

The objective of this paper is to examine the effect of intra-African Trade on Nigeria’s economic growth from 1981 to 2019. To achieve this, the ARDL modeling technique is employed to investigate the short-run and long-run effects of intra-African trade on Nigeria’s economic growth. The study finds that though the short-run effect is positive but not significant; the long-run effect is significantly positive, and robust to alternative estimation techniques. This suggests that expansion of trade among African countries, which is expected to result from the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), would have positive growth effect …

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Microfinance Sustainability In A Digitalised Economy, M. A. Adebiyi, T. S. Olusegun, J. Yakubu Mar 2022

Microfinance Sustainability In A Digitalised Economy, M. A. Adebiyi, T. S. Olusegun, J. Yakubu

Economic and Financial Review

The study examines microfinance sustainability in a digitalised economy using a panel dataset of 1,314 microfinance banks in Nigeria spanning 2012 to 2020. The results show that digitalisation poses significant threats to microfinance sustainability in Nigeria. The industry presently faces strong competition from commercial banks and Fintech companies, and is characterised by a low capital base, product innovation and market penetration, high transaction costs, and some idiosyncratic risks. The study suggests that microfinance institutions should leverage their large customer base by utilising digital innovations. Regulatory agencies should ensure that Fintech services are adequately regulated, affordable, and easily accessible to microfinance …

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Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 6, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Mar 2022

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 6, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

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Lasso For Stochastic Frontier Models With Many Efficient Firms, William C. Horrace, Hyunseok Jung, Yoonseok Lee Mar 2022

Lasso For Stochastic Frontier Models With Many Efficient Firms, William C. Horrace, Hyunseok Jung, Yoonseok Lee

Center for Policy Research

We apply the adaptive LASSO (Zou, 2006) to select a set of maximally efficient firms in the panel fixed-effect stochastic frontier model. The adaptively weighted L1 penalty with sign restrictions for firm-level inefficiencies allows simultaneous estimation of the maximal efficiency and firm-level inefficiency parameters, which results in a faster rate of convergence of the corresponding estimators than the least-squares dummy variable approach. We show that the estimator possesses the oracle property and selection consistency still holds with our proposed tuning parameter selection criterion. We also propose an efficient optimization algorithm based on coordinate descent. We apply the method to estimate …

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(Wp 2022-03) Managing Contagion: Covid, Public Health, And Reflexive Behavior, John B. Davis Mar 2022

(Wp 2022-03) Managing Contagion: Covid, Public Health, And Reflexive Behavior, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This paper characterizes a pandemic as one kind of contagion, and defines a contagion as a two-level, two-direction, reflexive feedback loop system. In such a system, experts’ opinions can act as self-fulfilling prophecies that significantly influence social behavior. Also, when multiple experts produce multiple, expert opinions can fragment a society’s response to a pandemic worsening rather than ameliorating it. This paper models this with two competing expert opinions, associates them with club goods and common pool goods types of circumstances, and argues that to combat fragmentation of opinion a focus on public health public good provision needs to be framed …

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Financial Intermediaries And Contagion In Market Efficiency: The Case Of Etfs, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam Mar 2022

Financial Intermediaries And Contagion In Market Efficiency: The Case Of Etfs, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Capital constraints of financial intermediaries can affect liquidity provision. We investigate whether these constraints spillover and consequently cause contagion in the degree of market efficiency across assets managed by a common intermediary. Specifically, we provide evidence of strong comovement in pricing gaps between ETFs and their constituents for ETFs served by the same lead market maker (LMM). The effects are stronger for ETFs that are more illiquid and volatile, when the underlying constituents of the ETFs are more costly to arbitrage, and for LMMs with more constrained capital. Using extreme disruptions in debt markets during COVID-19 as an experiment, we …

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How Do Firms Respond To Reduced Private Equity Buyout Activity?, Yi-Hsin Lo Mar 2022

How Do Firms Respond To Reduced Private Equity Buyout Activity?, Yi-Hsin Lo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper presents new evidence on the economic role of private equity buyouts by exploiting the staggered adoption of the constructive fraud provision by U.S. state courts. The law unintentionally shifts the credit default risk borne by existing unsecured creditors of the buyout target to the selling shareholders and lenders in the form of ex-post litigation risk, thereby discouraging buyout activity. Using a difference-in-differences framework, I find that firms raise less capital, reduce payouts and investments, and form alliances with employees. Firms also avoid positive NPV projects that carry too much risk. These findings are consistent with managers enjoying a …

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The Effect Of Foreign Institutional Ownership On Corporate Tax Avoidance: International Evidence, Iftekhar Hasan, Incheol Kim, Haimeng Teng, Qiang Wu Mar 2022

The Effect Of Foreign Institutional Ownership On Corporate Tax Avoidance: International Evidence, Iftekhar Hasan, Incheol Kim, Haimeng Teng, Qiang Wu

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We find that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) reduce their investee firms’ tax avoidance. We provide evidence that the effect is driven by the institutional distance between FIIs’ home countries/regions and host countries/regions. Specifically, we find that the effect is driven by the influence of FIIs from countries/regions with high-quality institutions (i.e., common law, high government effectiveness, and high regulatory quality) on investee firms located in countries/regions with low-quality institutions. Furthermore, we show that the effect is concentrated on FIIs with little experience in the investee countries/regions or FIIs with stronger monitoring incentives. Finally, we find that FIIs are more likely …

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Correlation-Robust Auction Design, Wei He, Jiangtao Li Mar 2022

Correlation-Robust Auction Design, Wei He, Jiangtao Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the design of auctions when the auctioneer has limited statistical information about the joint distribution of the bidders' valuations. More specifically, we consider an auctioneer who has an estimate of the marginal distribution of a generic bidder's valuation but does not have reliable information about the correlation structure. We analyze the performance of mechanisms in terms of the revenue guarantee, that is, the greatest lower bound of revenue across all joint distributions that are consistent with the marginals. A simple auction format, the second-price auction with no reserve price, is shown to be asymptotically optimal, as the number …

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Assessing Gender Parity In Intrahousehold Allocation Of Educational Resources: Evidence From Bangladesh, Sijia Xu, Abu S. Shonchoy, Tomoki Fujii Mar 2022

Assessing Gender Parity In Intrahousehold Allocation Of Educational Resources: Evidence From Bangladesh, Sijia Xu, Abu S. Shonchoy, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

Gender parity in education—an important global development goal—has been primarily measured through school enrollment, and the gender parity in education quality has received limited attention until recently. We address this issue by highlighting the intrahousehold allocation of education expenditure. We extend the hurdle model into a three-part model to enable decomposition of households’ education decisions into enrollment, total education expenditure, and share of the total education expenditure on the core component, or items relating to the quality of education such as private tutoring. We apply this model to four rounds of nationally representative household surveys from Bangladesh, a country that …

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Forced Moves And Home Maintenance: The Amplifying Effects Of Mortgage Payment Burden On Underwater Homeowners, John Harding, Li Jing, Stuart Rosenthal, Xirui Zhang Mar 2022

Forced Moves And Home Maintenance: The Amplifying Effects Of Mortgage Payment Burden On Underwater Homeowners, John Harding, Li Jing, Stuart Rosenthal, Xirui Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Although the adverse effect of high loan to value ratios (LTV) on mortgage default is known, the potential amplifying effect of high payment-to-income (PTI) ratios that can force families out of their homes has received limited attention. High PTI and LTV can also add to default costs by discouraging home maintenance. Using the 1985-2013 AHS panel, we show that high PTI prompts families to move and especially so for households with LTV above 120%. This lends support for policies like HAMP and HARP that seek to reduce forced moves and mortgage default by lowering mortgage payment burden for financially stressed …

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Occupation Density Estimation For Noisy High-Frequency Data, Congshan Zhang, Jia Li, Tim Bollerslev Mar 2022

Occupation Density Estimation For Noisy High-Frequency Data, Congshan Zhang, Jia Li, Tim Bollerslev

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the nonparametric estimation of occupation densities for semimartingale processes observed with noise. As leading examples we consider the stochastic volatility of a latent efficient price process, the volatility of the latent noise that separates the efficient price from the actually observed price, and nonlinear transformations of these processes. Our estimation methods are decidedly nonparametric and consist of two steps: the estimation of the spot price and noise volatility processes based on pre-averaging techniques and in-fill asymptotic arguments, followed by a kernel-type estimation of the occupation densities. Our spot volatility estimates attain the optimal rate of convergence, and …

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Conditional Superior Predictive Ability, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Rogier Quaedvlieg Mar 2022

Conditional Superior Predictive Ability, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Rogier Quaedvlieg

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article proposes a test for the conditional superior predictive ability (CSPA) of a family of forecasting methods with respect to a benchmark. The test is functional in nature: under the null hypothesis, the benchmark’s conditional expected loss is no more than those of the competitors, uniformly across all conditioning states. By inverting the CSPA tests for a set of benchmarks, we obtain confidence sets for the uniformly most superior method. The econometric inference pertains to testing conditional moment inequalities for time series data with general serial dependence, and we justify its asymptotic validity using a uniform non-parametric inference method …

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The Effects Of Physician Retirement On Patient Outcomes: Anticipation And Disruption, Xuan Zhang Mar 2022

The Effects Of Physician Retirement On Patient Outcomes: Anticipation And Disruption, Xuan Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The physician retirement rate in the United States is increasing as the population ages. I use an event study model allowing for anticipation to evaluate the effects of primary care physician (PCP) retirement on elderly adults’ health care utilization and quality of care. I find that, despite moderate anticipatory effects, PCP retirement results in an approximately $572 increase in total Medicare costs per beneficiary in the first 1.5 years post-retirement and an over 10% increase in detection of new chronic conditions. Heterogeneity analyses show that the increase in costs is disproportionately driven by the retirement of solo practitioners; Medicare beneficiaries …

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Bank, Stock Market Efficiency And Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence From Asean-5, Asia-5 And Oecd-7 Countries, Swee Liang Tan Mar 2022

Bank, Stock Market Efficiency And Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence From Asean-5, Asia-5 And Oecd-7 Countries, Swee Liang Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper estimates bank and stock market efficiency associations with real per capita GDP growth by examining panel-data across three different regions using Beck-Katz Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) regression. It allows heteroskedastic and/or contemporaneously correlated disturbances across panels, with to specify a common first-order autocorrelation within the panel. The results suggest efficiency effects on growth is not unambiguous. The results suggest a threshold beyond which increase in bank overhead cost hurts economic growth, for developing countries. Likewise, there is a threshold beyond which increase in stock market turnover ratio hurts economic growth, for developed countries. One policy implication of the …

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A Posterior-Based Wald-Type Statistic For Hypothesis Testing, Yong Li, Xiaobin Liu, Tao Zeng, Jun Yu Mar 2022

A Posterior-Based Wald-Type Statistic For Hypothesis Testing, Yong Li, Xiaobin Liu, Tao Zeng, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new Wald-type statistic is proposed for hypothesis testing based on Bayesian posterior distributions under the correct model specification. The new statistic can be explained as a posterior version of the Wald statistic and has several nice properties. First, it is well-defined under improper prior distributions. Second, it avoids Jeffreys–Lindley–Bartlett’s paradox. Third, under the null hypothesis and repeated sampling, it follows a χ2" role="presentation" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; display: inline-block; line-height: normal; font-size: 16.2px; word-spacing: normal; overflow-wrap: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; border: 0px; position: relative;">χ2 …

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Ethical Ai Development: Evidence From Ai Startups, James Bessen, Stephen Michael Impink, Lydia Reichensperger, Robert Seamans Mar 2022

Ethical Ai Development: Evidence From Ai Startups, James Bessen, Stephen Michael Impink, Lydia Reichensperger, Robert Seamans

Faculty Scholarship

Artificial Intelligence startups use training data as direct inputs in product development. These firms must balance numerous trade-offs between ethical issues and data access without substantive guidance from regulators or existing judicial precedence. We survey these startups to determine what actions they have taken to address these ethical issues and the consequences of those actions. We find that 58% of these startups have established a set of AI principles. Startups with data-sharing relationships with high-technology firms; that were impacted by privacy regulations; or with prior (non-seed) funding from institutional investors are more likely to establish ethical AI principles. Lastly, startups …

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Post Covid-19 Exit Strategies And Emerging Markets Economic Challenges, Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito Mar 2022

Post Covid-19 Exit Strategies And Emerging Markets Economic Challenges, Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We study emerging markets’ 1980s lost growth decade, triggered by the massive reversal of the snowball effect in the US during 1974–1984, finding that higher flow costs of servicing debt overhang explain the dramatic decline in growth rates of exposed emerging markets. We also show how lowering the US cost of servicing its public debt has been associated with higher US, Japan, and Western Europe real output growth rates during the post WWII recovery decades, 1946–1956, and validate that fiscal adjustments of large countries have strong growth and volatility spillovers effects on exposed emerging markets and developing countries.

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A Requiem For “Blame It On Beijing” Interpreting Rotating Global Current Account Surpluses, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito Mar 2022

A Requiem For “Blame It On Beijing” Interpreting Rotating Global Current Account Surpluses, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Global current account imbalances have reappeared, although the extent and distribution of these imbalances are noticeably different from those experienced in the middle of the last decade. What does that recurrence mean for our understanding of the origin and nature of such imbalances? Will imbalances persist over time? Informed by empirical estimates of the determinants of current account imbalances encompassing the period after the global recession, we find that – as before – the observable manifestations of the factors driving the global saving glut have limited explanatory power for the time series variation in imbalances. Fiscal factors determine imbalances, and …

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From Strategic Goal To Reality: The Development Of The Myrtle Beach Invitational Basketball Tournament, Mark Mitchell, Dennis Edwards, John Marcis Feb 2022

From Strategic Goal To Reality: The Development Of The Myrtle Beach Invitational Basketball Tournament, Mark Mitchell, Dennis Edwards, John Marcis

The Coastal Business Journal

The Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, area was selected to serve as one-time hosts for two tournaments in 2017: the ACC Women's Basketball Tournament and the Puerto Rico Tip-Off Men's College Basketball Tournament, when circumstances required those events to relocate on very short notice. Following the success of these two one-time events, the region sought to become a permanent host of an annual men's college basketball tournament to be played in November or December. This manuscript examines the development process of this tournament and illustrates how tournament organizers addressed the most common elements found in such events.

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A Risk-Based Approach To Cybersecurity: A Case Study Of Financial Messaging Networks Data Breaches, Xiang Michelle Liu Feb 2022

A Risk-Based Approach To Cybersecurity: A Case Study Of Financial Messaging Networks Data Breaches, Xiang Michelle Liu

The Coastal Business Journal

With banking becoming increasingly global and largely digital, a magnitude of data breach incidents resulted from cyberattacks have been observed and can be frequently traced to ineffective security practices and procedures. Cyberattacks do not require physical proximity, nor are they deterred by national borders. Cybercriminals can remain undetected for a long period of time. Such breaches inevitably result in losses of reputation, customer confidence, and in some instances, productivity. The purpose of this study is to take a deeper look into various breaches of the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) messaging network to illuminate vulnerabilities inherent in the …

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Understanding Residents' Opinions And Support Toward Sustainable Tourism Development In The Caribbean: The Case Of Saint Kitts And Nevis, David Mc.A Baker, Ramaprasad Unni Feb 2022

Understanding Residents' Opinions And Support Toward Sustainable Tourism Development In The Caribbean: The Case Of Saint Kitts And Nevis, David Mc.A Baker, Ramaprasad Unni

The Coastal Business Journal

Saint Kitts and Nevis are two islands forming one nation in the Caribbean. This paper examines differences in the perceived economic, socio-cultural, and environmental impacts of tourism between residents of Saint Kitts and Nevis and the residents' attitudes about the pace and direction of tourism development. A self-administered household survey was used to assess perceptions of these impacts from tourism among residents. After excluding 53 non-residents, effective sample size was 269. ANOVA was used to analyze differences between the two islands. Residents of both islands shared similar perceptions about the pace and direction of tourism development in their islands. However, …

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Promoting Ecotourism To Millennials Through Social Media, Melissa Clark, Paul Clark, Michael Latta Feb 2022

Promoting Ecotourism To Millennials Through Social Media, Melissa Clark, Paul Clark, Michael Latta

The Coastal Business Journal

This paper explores how coastal ecotourism marketers can utilize social media to effectively market to millennials. Coastal Tourism is one of four types of ecotourism identified by Honey and Krantz (2007) in their study Global Trends in Coastal Tourism sponsored by the World Wildlife Fund. An online survey of university students from the millennial generation was utilized. Findings indicate that millennials are interested in ecotourism and gather information about it from friends and social media. They check their accounts several times a day and usually from their smartphones. They would choose an ecotourism destination if money were not an issue. …

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The Strategic Problem Of Information Security And Data Breaches, Michael Dinger, Julie Terrill Wade Feb 2022

The Strategic Problem Of Information Security And Data Breaches, Michael Dinger, Julie Terrill Wade

The Coastal Business Journal

This paper considers the strategic uncertainties and impacts created by high-profile data breaches and discusses the unique strategic problem presented by information security breaches for organizational executives. Based on theory regarding strategic uncertainties, we develop a framework depicting a strategic perspective on breaches within and outside the firm. Then, within the major categories outlined by the framework, this research evaluates instances of 17 public disclosures of high-profile data breaches over the past four years. Based on our discussion of these 17 cases, we identify six major issues complicating strategic decision-making regarding security breaches and discuss guidance for managers.

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The Role Of Forensic Accounting In U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts, Amie L. Haun, Madison Gaither, Joanie Sompayrac Feb 2022

The Role Of Forensic Accounting In U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts, Amie L. Haun, Madison Gaither, Joanie Sompayrac

The Coastal Business Journal

The September 11th attacks on the World Trade Center directed international attention to the financial component of terrorist operations. The demand for forensic accounts has continued to increase because of a growing intolerance for fraud and terrorist activity. Forensic accountants have and will continue to have a vital role in United States' counterterrorism efforts in the post-9/11 era by detecting acts of fraud and money laundering. Comprehensive review of relevant literature including books, peer-reviewed articles, government databases, court records and news media confirms that forensic accountants are equipped with special skills and analytical tools that make them valuable members of …

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Extraordinary Item Classification Eliminated From The Income Statement: Some Supportive Evidence, Mark G. Mccarthy, Dennis O'Reilly, Douglas K. Schneider Feb 2022

Extraordinary Item Classification Eliminated From The Income Statement: Some Supportive Evidence, Mark G. Mccarthy, Dennis O'Reilly, Douglas K. Schneider

The Coastal Business Journal

Accounting Standards Update 2015-01 formally eliminated the reporting of "extraordinary items" in the income statement for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2015. Gains and losses previously reported as extraordinary items and presented separately below income from continuing operations, are now reported as other gains and losses and included in income from continuing operations. The use of the extraordinary item classification fell sharply after 2002 when gains and losses from the early extinguishment of debt were no longer required to be reported as extraordinary items. By 2003 less than 100 publicly traded firms reported extraordinary items and in 2011 the …

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The Impact Of The Carrollton Greenbelt On Residential Housing Prices: A Spatial Approach, Heather R. Bono, Lisa L. Gezon, William J. Smith, Macy D. Walker Feb 2022

The Impact Of The Carrollton Greenbelt On Residential Housing Prices: A Spatial Approach, Heather R. Bono, Lisa L. Gezon, William J. Smith, Macy D. Walker

The Coastal Business Journal

The Carrollton GreenBelt is a linear park encircling the City of Carrollton Georgia. The GreenBelt differs from other linear parks in that it is an entirely new construction and was not built upon existing rail lines, as was the Atlanta Beltline and the nearby Silver Comet Trail. Using GIS, data from the Carroll County Tax Assessor's office and spatial econometric techniques, we estimate local fair-market housing values within the hedonic framework to measure the relationship between home prices and access to the GreenBelt. We find the expected positive effects from the number of bedrooms, bathrooms and square footage, but access …

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