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Transmission Of Firm-Level Demand Shocks To Stock Returns: Evidence From 10-K Text Analysis, Dylan Gunjan Parikh

Economics Undergraduate Senior Theses

Industrial organization and corporate finance papers that measure firm-level demand characteristics employ price, quantity, and product characteristic data that is unavailable in public financial disclosures. As a result, cross-sectional asset pricing literature attention to demand-side factors is limited. This paper constructs a demand shock measure from natural language processing of 28,263 publicly disclosed 10-K filings from 2001 to 2020. I find that a 1SD demand shock increases contemporaneously predicts a 1.8% increase (SE = 0.4%) in returns. Long-short portfolio sorted on demand shock generates 8.5% alpha (SE = 1.9%) against combined Fama-French and Q-factor models and a 0.91 sharpe ratio …

Offsetting Carbon With Lemons: Adverse Selection And Certification In The Voluntary Carbon Market, Vahideh Manshadi, Faidra Monachou, Ilan Morgenstern

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

To meet voluntary climate targets, firms often complement internal decarbonization efforts by purchasing carbon credits in the voluntary carbon market (VCM), which finance projects that reduce emissions elsewhere. However, these emissions reductions are difficult to verify, and growing evidence of overcrediting has cast doubt on the VCM's potential to genuinely offset emissions. We investigate how the VCM's defining features shape its climate effectiveness. Our model captures three central elements: adverse selection, as high-quality projects that truly reduce emissions are costlier yet difficult to distinguish from low-quality ones; imperfect third-party certification, as projects are screened based on a noisy signal of …

Many Hands Make Light Work: Restoring Edu-Economical Debts For Black Males, Joyice Robinson Myers

VA Engage Journal

A college degree is closely linked to economic stability, yet only 20% of Black men in the United States hold a bachelor’s degree or higher. These disparities are not accidental; they are the cumulative result of systems that have systematically denied Black males equitable access to educational and economic opportunity across generations. This systematic review examines the compounding relationship among family structure, educational attainment, and economic standing for Black males, and considers what restoring that relationship could look like in practice. I integrate three theoretical frameworks—Education Debt (Ladson-Billings, 2006), African American Male Theory (Bush & Bush, 2013), and the R³ISE …

Policy Whiplash: Tariffs And Uncertainty Among Firms And Investors In 2025, Boau Lilly Shepherd

Economics Undergraduate Senior Theses

On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a series of reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trading partners, set to be implemented on April 9, 2025, a day he referred to as “Liberation Day”. Although these tariffs were paused almost immediately, they were subsequently renegotiated and revised throughout the summer of 2025. This paper finds evidence that Liberation Day caused a spike in uncertainty among firms and a spike in volatility among investors, while the subsequent summer revisions reduced uncertainty and volatility, despite tariff levels remaining substantially higher than those at the start of the year. These findings suggest that firms …

Individualism And Momentum Revisited: Evidence On The Persistence Of Cultural Drivers In Stock Market Returns, Hayley S. Sciubba

Economics Undergraduate Senior Theses

This paper reexamines the relationship between cultural differences and momentum strategy returns over the period March 2007 through March 2026, building on the Chui, Titman and Wei (2010) finding that higher individualism is associated with greater trading volume, volatility, and momentum profits. Cross-country cultural differences are measured using an individualism index developed by Minkov et al. (2017), which is related to overconfidence and self-attribution bias. Using monthly stock price data, I construct cleaned monthly returns and sort stocks into six-month momentum portfolios. Although many of the 41 countries common to the original and current samples have experienced changes in their …

Selective Contagion: Sovereign Credit Integration And Heterogeneous Shock Transmission In Emerging Equity And Derivative Markets, Fabiana Araujo Rincón

Economics Undergraduate Senior Theses

Contagion in Latin America is real but selective: the direction of spillover depends on whether a country is integrated more strongly into global or regional markets. Using a stacked event study across 90 manually identified shocks from 2001 to 2026, I estimate regional contagion and its determinants across credit, currency, equity, and derivative markets. Contagion travels through sovereign credit, not currency, and through economic, not political, shocks. Political shocks, despite their larger domestic impact, stay locally contained. The direction of spillover turns on shock origin: shocks from large, globally integrated economies depress their peers, while shocks from smaller, regionally focused …

Implied Variance Asymmetry As A Predictor Of Stock Returns Around Quarterly Earnings Dates, Matthew J. Sebastian

Economics Undergraduate Senior Theses

This paper investigates whether option-implied variance asymmetry, defined as the difference between upside and downside risk-neutral semivariances measured shortly before scheduled quarterly earnings announcements pre- dicts the cumulative abnormal return realized over the announcement win- dow. We find implied variance asymmetry positively and significantly pre- dicts announcement-window returns in S&P 500 companies: the high-minus- low quintile sort portfolio earns 45 basis points over a five-day window with a Fama-French four-factor alpha of 60 basis points, both statistically signif- icant. The results suggest a temporary break in market efficiency and are consistent with an informed-trading interpretation in which earnings specific information …

Transitioning To Privatization With An Employee-First Approach: The Role Of The Employee Success Team, Hanna E. Andersen

Certified Public Manager® Applied Research

Convention centers are vital economic and cultural assets, driving commerce, tourism, and local engagement. In addition to hosting conferences and trade shows, they serve as gathering spaces for civic events and community celebrations. Like many municipalities, the City of Waco shifted the Waco Convention Center from direct municipal operation to private management to improve efficiency and service quality. Guided by its commitment to community assets, the city adopted an employee-first approach through its Employee Success Team (EST). The EST addressed the challenges of privatization—such as staff uncertainty and restructuring—by placing employees in roles within the city or with the new …

Are Greenfield Cross-Border Investments Sensitive To Us Trade Policy? An Investigation Of Responses To Liberation Day Tariff Announcements, Philip Caspar Ernst

Economics Undergraduate Senior Theses

This paper studies whether foreign greenfield investment into the United States responded to the Trump administration’s April 2025 Liberation Day tariff announcements. Using project-level fDi Markets data from January 2023 through November 2025, I examine changes in announced project counts, expected jobs created, and capital investment. The analysis compares aggregate investment activity before and after Liberation Day, tests whether responses differed for countries assigned additional tariffs above the 10% baseline level, investigates the effects of tariff intensity on investment announcements, and examines whether effects were concentrated in particular business activity fields. The clearest finding is that project announcements declined after …

Towards An Inclusive Labour Market: Skills For The Future, Eva Erjavec

Economic and Business Review

In the transition to a knowledge-based society, human capital has become a key driver of economic growth, innovation, and social progress. As industries evolve and new technologies reshape labour markets, the development of future skills plays a crucial role in ensuring workforce adaptability, productivity, and long-term competitiveness. A bibliometric analysis aims to examine the importance of human capital for economic growth and the transition to a knowledge economy, synthesizing existing research and academic discussions. By systematically reviewing the literature, this paper seeks to provide insights into how skills and education contribute to sustainable economic development and social resilience. Furthermore, it …

From Wall Street To Main Street: The Financial–Operational Performance Link In Hospitals Across Geographies, Chulho Christopher Lee, Lan Luo, Yinfei Chen, Taylor K. Brown, Hyoun Sook Lim, Ying Chen

Economic and Business Review

This study examines the relationship between hospital financial performance and operational efficiency. Using data from the American Hospital Association (AHA), we find that profitability, debt coverage, and working capital efficiency are positively associated with hospital efficiency, while liquidity and capital structure exhibit a negative correlation. Fixed-asset efficiency, however, shows no significant impact on hospital operational efficiency. Furthermore, we find that the operational efficiency of urban hospitals is, in general, more sensitive to financial performance than that of rural hospitals. These findings provide practical insights for healthcare administrators and policymakers aiming to enhance hospital operational efficiency and promote equitable care delivery.

The Nexus Between Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Technology Innovation, And Co2 Emissions In Vietnam, Ha Thi Thu Nguyen

Economic and Business Review

Vietnam's rapid economic growth has intensified environmental pressures, heightening concerns about the country's ability to decouple growth from rising CO₂ emissions. Although green policies and initiatives have been introduced, questions remain regarding their effectiveness and the extent to which technological innovation and renewable energy can mitigate environmental degradation. This study applies the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) framework and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the short- and long-run impacts of economic growth, foreign direct investment (FDI), technological innovation, renewable energy consumption, and forest area on CO₂ emissions in Vietnam, using annual …

The Reading Quiz And Reflective Writing At The Start Of Class, Geert Dhondt

Open Educational Resources

This assignment uses brief, unannounced reading quizzes and reflective writing exercises at the beginning of class to promote preparation, engagement, and accountability in introductory economics courses. Through low-stakes assessment and opportunities for reflection, students develop critical thinking, metacognitive awareness, and a deeper understanding of course material while providing instructors with immediate insight into student comprehension and misconceptions. By informing class discussions and encouraging collaborative learning, the assignment creates a student-centered environment that supports active participation, independent learning, and ongoing intellectual growth.

Public Preferences For Critical Mineral Mining In The U.S.: Evidence From A Discrete Choice Experiment, Bamidele Ajiga, Kwame Awuah-Offei, Mahelet G. Fikru

Mining Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

Even though there is widespread recognition that we need to mine more critical minerals for national security and energy needs, concerns about environmental impacts often lead to public opposition to proposed new mining projects. The literature lacks sufficient data from communities with proposed mineral projects to assess drivers of differences in support. This study investigates public preferences for mining projects in three states in the United States with proposed critical minerals projects, using a discrete choice experiment. Respondents evaluated projects that vary in job creation, state tax revenue, tailings reprocessing content, groundwater impacts, and surface water impacts. We also randomly …

Incentives, Evidence, And Reminders For Bureaucrats: Overcoming Barriers To Policy Scale Up, Patrick Agte, Daniel R. Morales, Christopher Neilson, Sebastian Otero, Guatam Rao

Discussion Papers

Scaling up effective policies often requires the attention of frontline bureaucrats with many competing responsibilities. Even when policymakers adopt effective programs, implementation may not follow. In a nationwide experiment in the Dominican Republic, we test interventions to increase school principals' implementation of an educational program proven effective in a previous RCT. Only 37% of control schools verifiably implemented the intervention when ordered to by the Ministry of Education, compared with 83% in the original trial. Implementation was no higher among schools that previously implemented the program in the RCT, suggesting that fixed costs of adoption do not explain non-adoption. We …

Social Media Is A Juggernaut: Lagged Correlation Analysis Using Ngram Data On “Internet” And “Social Media” With Amplification By The Advent Of The “Iphone”, William Zywiak, Gao Niu, Nicolas Petrell, Victoria Nichele, Kirsten Hokeness

Mathematics and Economics Faculty Journal Articles

The amount of new information transmitted per day can be overwhelming. The data available through Ngram Viewer allows statistical examination to determine the most salient topics, as well as lagged correlation and lagged variance to support possible causal connections between concepts. Using this database, we determined that COVID, crypto, microplastics, and especially social media are important topics of the last few years. We also present results that suggest the development of the internet and the iPhone fueled the prominence of social media, and the access of the iPhone also increased access to the internet.

Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy Communication: Evidence From Textual Analysis Of Daily Newspaper Articles, Bisrat Abebe Woldesilassie

Dissertations

Monetary policy communication has become a crucial tool for central banks to shape market expectations and enhance transparency. The goal of this paper is to measure how effectively the Fed communicates monetary policy through FOMC minutes by analyzing the impact of the release of FOMC minutes on financial markets through textual sentiment analysis of daily newspaper articles. I measure the surprise in the daily news sentiment that is caused by FOMC minutes release. The surprise in the sentiment is calculated as the change in the news sentiment that is measured over three weeks prior to the release of the FOMC …

Cross Section Curve Data Autoregression, Peter C.B. Phillips, Liang Jiang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper develops and applies new asymptotic theory for estimation and inference in parametric autoregression and vector autoregression with function valued cross section curve time series. The study provides a new approach to dynamic panel regression with high dimensional dependent cross section data. We deal with the stationary case and provide a full set of results extending those of standard Euclidean space autoregression, showing how function space curve cross section data raises efficiency and reduces bias in estimation and shortens confidence intervals. Wild-bootstrap methods are also developed to improve testing and inference. The findings reveal that function space models with …

From Unstructured Data To Demand Counterfactuals: Theory And Practice, Timothy Christensen, Giovanni Compiani

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Empirical models of multi-product demand rely on low-dimensional product representations to capture substitution patterns, increasingly using proxies built from unstructured data. When proxies are imperfect, standard workflows yield biased counterfactuals and invalid inference. We develop a practical toolkit to address these issues. Our methods apply to market-level and/or individual data, require minimal additional computation, provide simple standard-error formulas, and accommodate proxies from fine-tuned models. Further, we propose diagnostics to assess proxy quality. Our methods yield meaningful improvements in predicting substitution in empirically calibrated simulations and in an application where we assess counterfactual prediction performance against a ground truth.

Canyon Ferry Reservoir: A Regional Recreation System In Montana, Kika Bradford, Melissa Weddell

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This study examines recreation use, visitor behavior, and infrastructure demands at Canyon Ferry Reservoir, Montana, using a combination of visitor surveys, automated counts, and systematic observations conducted between February and October of 2025. Results indicate that Canyon Ferry functions primarily as a high-frequency, locally driven recreation system characterized by repeat visitation, small travel groups, and short-duration trips. Use is highly concentrated at a limited number of sites and during predictable peak periods, creating localized infrastructure pressures despite relatively stable overall visitation levels. Findings show that parking areas and campgrounds experience more consistent capacity constraints than boat ramps, and that perceptions …

The Impact Of Carbon Capture Technologies On Energy Prices, Bruktawit M. Ahmed, Mahelet G. Fikru

Economics Faculty Research & Creative Works

Despite previous literature evaluating the economic feasibility of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the energy and power sector, there are limited studies examining the impact on consumer prices - particularly energy prices and their variability. Using a Monte Carlo simulation based on a profit-maximization model in an oligopolistic market, we examine how production and abatement costs, policy incentives — including a carbon tax, renewable energy subsidies, and CCS subsidies — and energy demand parameters influence the percentage of carbon captured by a producer operating a diverse portfolio of energy-generating technologies. Additionally, we assess how these factors contribute to fluctuations …

Beyond Numbers: Governance, Capital Structure, And The Contribution Of Village Cooperatives To Regional Economic Output In Indonesia, Mohamad Dian Revindo, M. Fajar Ramadhan, Nia Kurnia Sholihah, Indri Br Situmorang, Hilda Fachrizah

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Although cooperatives are widely regarded as an important part of Indonesia’s economy and have a  large membership base, the contribution of cooperatives to regional economic output in Indonesia has never been systematically examined. This study provides the first multi-year, fixed-effects panel evidence of cooperative–GRDP linkages for all 34 Indonesian provinces (2017–2023) in a Cobb-Douglas production function framework with province and year fixed effects. Two outcome variables are estimated: Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) and the Unemployment Rate (Unemp). The findings indicate that active cooperatives are associated with higher provincial GRDP and lower open unemployment; despite, the associations should be read …

From Trade War To Green Transition: Optimal Electric Vehicle Tariffs With Revenue-Funded Subsidies, Panle Jia Barwick, Jack Collison, Pinelopi K. Goldberg, Shanjun Li, Yucheng Wang

Discussion Papers

We study the optimal design of trade and industrial policy when governments pursue environmental objectives alongside traditional national welfare. Motivated by the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and growing concerns about competitiveness, resilience, and the environment, we develop a framework in which policymakers choose tariffs and domestic production subsidies to maximize national welfare, defined as the sum of consumer surplus, domestic profits, environmental benefits, and tariff revenue net of subsidies. We combine a theoretical model of differentiated-product oligopoly with a structural demand model estimated using vehicle-level data from 13 countries during 2004-2023 that together account for the vast majority …

Should Dams Respond To Power Prices? Environmental Economics And Emissions Effects Of Hydropower Peaking, Levi Stephen Konrad-Shankland

Environmental Studies Senior Theses

Hydroelectricity stands to be particularly important to a decarbonizing power grid because unlike many renewables it is dispatchable. However, ramping up and down hydropower production at short notice to respond to power demand—hydropeaking—worsens many of the environmental harms of hydroelectricity (Bipa et al., 2024). In Chapter 1, I create a microeconomic framework to explain how and why revenue-motivated dams hydropeak.

In Chapter 2, I assess the extents to which six different case study dams around the US hydropeak, first by decomposing actual flow regime into combinations of counterfactual management objectives, and second with an index of flow variation alignment with …

Compellingness In Nash Implementation, Shurojit Chatterji, Takashi Kunimoto, Paulo Daniel Salles Ramos

Research Collection School Of Economics

A social choice function (SCF) is said to be Nash implementable (in pure strategies) if there exists a mechanism in which every pure-strategy Nash equilibrium induces outcomes specified by the SCF. The main objective of this paper is to assess the impact of considering mixed-strategy equilibria in Nash implementation. We define compelling Nash implementation as a case where the implementing mechanism possesses a pure-strategy equilibrium that strictly Pareto dominates any undesired mixed-strategy equilibrium. We show that if the finite environment and the SCF to be implemented jointly satisfy what we call Condition COM, then we can construct a finite …

Understanding Formal Financial Access In Indonesia: Evidence From Micro Data, M. Aulia Rachman, Yozi Aulia Rahman, Maulida Dewi Pangestika, Risanda Alirastra Budiantoro

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study examines the determinants of access to formal financial institutions using secondary household survey data from Indonesian Family Life Survey, Wave 5 (IFLS-5). Logistic regression analysis reveals that loan amount, savings, education level, age, housing status, and internet usage are positively and significantly associated with greater access. Individuals with higher savings, higher education, and homeownership exhibit a higher probability of utilizing formal financial services. Although the significance of internet usage varies across models, it remains a strong predictor when properly controlled, particularly due to its role in enhancing digital literacy. In contrast, income and health insurance ownership do not …

Cooling Deserts For Renters: Heat Equity Inside The Nyc Housing System, Tahreem Ashraf

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This study introduces the Cooling Desert Index (CDI), a composite spatial measure designed to identify census tracts in New York City where extreme heat vulnerability and structural barriers to adaptive cooling converge. Drawing on five publicly available datasets and a seven phase statistical pipeline, the CDI scores all 2,231 NYC census tracts on a continuous 0 to 100 scale by integrating heat exposure, severe rent burden, household income, racial composition, language access, disability status, and housing crowding. The analysis identifies 557 cooling deserts, defined as tracts where environmental heat risk is high and financial constraints make effective cooling structurally inaccessible, …

Essays On Health And Immigration Policy, Selen Ozdogan

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of two essays in applied microeconomics, each examining how individuals and institutions respond to policy changes. Both essays leverage natural experiments and recent advances in difference-in-differences estimation to identify causal effects. Both also speak to a common theme in public policy: the gap between intended and actual consequences of government intervention, and the role that policy design plays in shaping those consequences.

The first essay examines the impact of state-level e-cigarette excise taxes on nicotine and tobacco exposure among adults aged 18 and older. A central contribution is its use of individual-level panel biomarker data from urine …

The Impact Of Corruption On Private Investment In The Mena Region: An Empirical Study On The Period Of 1996-2023, Mohamed A. El Regdawy

Theses and Dissertations

This study aims to examine and understand empirically the impact of corruption on private investment in the MENA region during the period of 1996-2023, as private investment is a key enabler for sustainable economic growth. To better understand such a relationship, a Pooled Mean Group estimator was implemented to figure out this relationship in both the short run and long run. The findings confirm that in the long run, within the context of MENA, corruption was used as a tool to overcome the lack of quality in the regulations that were supposed to enable the role of the private sector. …

Beyond The Shelf: How Reallocating Shelf Space To Emerging Brands Enhances Store Performance Through Dynamic Brand-Level Effects, Jesse Core, Ho Kim

Journal of Applied Marketing Theory

This study examines the effects of reallocating shelf space from established to emerging brands in the flavored malt beverage category, a fast-moving, impulse-driven product category. Using a 13-week field experiment in 16 U.S. grocery stores (six treated, ten control), we reallocated one shelf facing from an established to an emerging brand for four weeks before reverting the shelves to their original configuration. Then we analyzed weekly SKU-level data on sales with fixed-effects panel regressions. Results show that the shelf-space reallocation increased category sales by 21.2% during treatment and 27.6% after reversion, revealing persistent gains. At the brand level, emerging brands …