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Equal Chances Or Fewer Victims? Moral Judgments In Autonomous Vehicle Dilemmas, Alexander Matros, Eren Bilen, Leonid Matros Feb 2026

Equal Chances Or Fewer Victims? Moral Judgments In Autonomous Vehicle Dilemmas, Alexander Matros, Eren Bilen, Leonid Matros

Faculty Publications

We examine the moral dilemma of how autonomous vehicles (AVs) should be programmed to act in unavoidable crash scenarios involving trade-offs between saving one life and saving many. We report results from three experimental studies that investigate individuals’ preferences over alternative AV decision rules in stylized crash scenarios. Across designs, we find robust support for a probabilistic decision rule that assigns passengers and pedestrians equal ex ante chances of survival (a 50:50 rule). This preference persists across different framings and remains salient even when additional probabilistic options are introduced.

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Age Structure And Inflation Dynamics In Pacific Island Economies, August Letlet, Karan Rai, Bhavesh Garg Feb 2026

Age Structure And Inflation Dynamics In Pacific Island Economies, August Letlet, Karan Rai, Bhavesh Garg

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study uses the panel of six Pacific Island Countries (PICs) to investigate the relationship between changing age structures and inflation. The findings suggest that both aggregated and disaggregated shares of the working-age population exert disinflationary pressure. This supports the life cycle hypothesis, which postulates that people in their productive years tend to save and produce more than they consume, fostering economic stability and managing inflation. Conversely, the findings indicate that old-age dependency contributes to inflationary pressures. These insights underscore the importance of demographic dynamics in shaping inflation trends and provide valuable guidance for policymakers aiming to maintain price stability.

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Disaggregated Economic Complexity And Inflation In Oecd Countries, Raymond L. Aor, Afees A. Salisu Feb 2026

Disaggregated Economic Complexity And Inflation In Oecd Countries, Raymond L. Aor, Afees A. Salisu

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study probes the intricate relationship between economic complexity and inflation dynamics, an area that has been relatively under-researched despite the potential for economic complexity to predict inflation. We focus on selected OECD countries and use panel data from 1998 to 2021. Utilizing a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model, we analyze both short- and long-term dynamics across various components of inflation. Our analysis encompasses both aggregate and disaggregated indicators of complexity, including ECI-Trade, ECI-Technology, and ECI-Research. The results indicate that the impact of economic complexity on inflation differs depending on the type of inflation and the time frame considered. …

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The Drivers Of The Gender Gap In Financial Inclusion For Entrepreneurial Development: Empirical Analysis From Tanzania, Cornel Joseph, Chakupewa Joseph Mpambije Feb 2026

The Drivers Of The Gender Gap In Financial Inclusion For Entrepreneurial Development: Empirical Analysis From Tanzania, Cornel Joseph, Chakupewa Joseph Mpambije

Business Management Review

The gender gap in financial inclusion is a significant concern for both the academic community and policymakers, as it represents a critical factor influencing the development of entrepreneurship in Tanzania. Using the World Bank’s Findex database of 2021, this paper examines the drivers of the gender gap in financial inclusion for entrepreneurial development in Tanzania. The study adopts the Fairlie decomposition to examine the contribution of these factors to the gender gap in access and usage of financial services. The empirical results from the Fairlie decomposition analysis confirm the existence of a gender gap in access to financial services in …

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Cash Or Crash: Return To Player Percentages And Expected Value Of Crash Games, Robert H. Scott Iii, Mikhail M. Sher, Jonathan Daigle Feb 2026

Cash Or Crash: Return To Player Percentages And Expected Value Of Crash Games, Robert H. Scott Iii, Mikhail M. Sher, Jonathan Daigle

UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal

Crash games are a new type of casino game offered on some online gambling sites. The first crash game was created by the online cryptocurrency casino Bustabit. Other cryptocurrency casinos started offering their own versions of crash games. Now mainstream online casinos have developed their own crash games—notably Rocket by DraftKings. Crash games are easy to learn and play. They offer the opportunity to increase your bet by many hundreds of multiples—though, as we show when deriving expected values, these outcomes are rare. In this paper, we study the history of crash games and calculate theoretical values of crash game …

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Stated Preferences For Public Provision Of Services: Experimental Evidence From Latin America, Hernán Bejarano, Matias Busso, Juan Francisco Santos Feb 2026

Stated Preferences For Public Provision Of Services: Experimental Evidence From Latin America, Hernán Bejarano, Matias Busso, Juan Francisco Santos

ESI Working Papers

We study how individuals in six Latin American countries value public versus private provision of education and healthcare using a survey experiment. Respondents were randomly assigned to vignettes that vary income, service quality, and provider type. Reported service quality is the main driver of choices: the probability of selecting a private provider roughly doubles when reported quality of the public option falls from 80 to 20 percent, while income has a smaller effect. Higher institutional trust lowers the likelihood of switching to private providers but does not affect willingness to pay once individuals choose private provision.

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Do Older Americans Work More When Their Housing Wealth Declines?, Brian J. Asquith Feb 2026

Do Older Americans Work More When Their Housing Wealth Declines?, Brian J. Asquith

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

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Military Service During The Vietnam War Hurt Veterans’ Long-Term Health, Xintong Wang, Carlos A. Flores, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes Feb 2026

Military Service During The Vietnam War Hurt Veterans’ Long-Term Health, Xintong Wang, Carlos A. Flores, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

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The Advantages Of Saudi Arabia’S Fixed Exchange Rate Regime For Inflation Control: An Econometric And Empirical Analysis, Rodrigo Bochner Feb 2026

The Advantages Of Saudi Arabia’S Fixed Exchange Rate Regime For Inflation Control: An Econometric And Empirical Analysis, Rodrigo Bochner

Arab Economic and Business Journal

Since 1986, Saudi, has maintained a fixed exchange rate, pegging the Saudi Riyal (SAR) to dollar at SAR 3.75/USD. This stabilizing domestic prices, and promoting macroeconomic stability in an oil-dependent and economy exposed to volatile global commodity prices and international shocks. This paper provides a assessment of the fixed exchange rate’s advantages for inflation control. Leveraging a dataset spanning 1980–2025 and econometric tools— Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques, and GARCH models—this study identifies the causal channels and measures the peg’s impact on inflation dynamics, with a review of literature, confirming that …

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Analysis Of Superior Economic Potential In South Tangerang City With Banten Province Comparator Using Location Quotient, Dynamic Location Quotient, And Shift Share Analysis Methods, Muhammad Qabus Abid Khairullah, Rastika Widiastuti, Cindy Adria Ananda Putri, Hayuning Anggrahita Feb 2026

Analysis Of Superior Economic Potential In South Tangerang City With Banten Province Comparator Using Location Quotient, Dynamic Location Quotient, And Shift Share Analysis Methods, Muhammad Qabus Abid Khairullah, Rastika Widiastuti, Cindy Adria Ananda Putri, Hayuning Anggrahita

Jurnal Geografi Lingkungan Tropik (Journal of Geography of Tropical Environments)

Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) is a key indicator for understanding regional economic structure and dynamics. Differences in sectoral contributions reflect levels of specialization, competitiveness, and growth potential, making comparative and dynamic sectoral analyses essential for regional development planning. This study aims to identify leading, supporting, potential, and lagging economic sectors using Location Quotient (LQ), Dynamic Location Quotient (DLQ), and Shift Share Analysis by comparing the economic performance of South Tangerang City with Banten Province. The analysis is based on GRDP at constant prices by industrial sector for the period 2019-2023. LQ is applied to identify sectoral comparative advantages, DLQ …

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Corrigendum To “Interim Rationalizable Implementation Of Functions” (Kunimoto T, Saran R, Serrano R (2024) Mathematics Of Operations Research 49(3):1791–1824), Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran, Roberto Serrano Feb 2026

Corrigendum To “Interim Rationalizable Implementation Of Functions” (Kunimoto T, Saran R, Serrano R (2024) Mathematics Of Operations Research 49(3):1791–1824), Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran, Roberto Serrano

Research Collection School Of Economics

This is the brief corrigendum to “Interim rationalizable implementation of functions” [Kunimoto T, Saran R, Serrano R (2024) Interim rationalizable implementation of functions. Math. Oper Res. 49(3):1791–1824].

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Sports Betting, Lotteries, And State Revenues In The Post-Paspa Era, Joseph Nedved, David Nason, Adam Hoffer, Amir B. Ferreira Neto, Brad Humphreys Feb 2026

Sports Betting, Lotteries, And State Revenues In The Post-Paspa Era, Joseph Nedved, David Nason, Adam Hoffer, Amir B. Ferreira Neto, Brad Humphreys

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

State lotteries are an important source of state revenue in the 45 states that operate them. Following the repeal of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), 38 states and Washington, DC legalized sports betting. Prior evidence is mixed on whether sports betting and lotteries are substitutes, complements, or unrelated goods, raising concerns about potential fiscal impacts. Using monthly lottery sales data from 18 states and a difference-in-differences design exploiting staggered legalization, we find no economically or statistically significant effect of sports betting on state lottery revenues. These results are robust across specifications and sub-samples.

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Montana On Screen: Exploring Film Tourism In Montana, Kika Bradford, Elena Bigart, Melissa Weddell Feb 2026

Montana On Screen: Exploring Film Tourism In Montana, Kika Bradford, Elena Bigart, Melissa Weddell

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This report presents a study exploring how film and TV show exposure influences tourism to Montana, a state long celebrated for its cinematic landscapes and Western heritage. Using data from an online survey of 311 visitors who had both watched a Montana-related production and visited a filming location in the past five years, the research examines visitor profiles, motivations, travel behaviors, spending, and perceptions.

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Authoritarianism And Conspiracism Around The World, Valerie Capraro, Folca Panizza, Joseph A. Vitriol, Mikey Biddlestone, Andrè Krouwel, Yordan Kutiyski, Alberto López Ortega, Ana Ebert, Max Wan, Praveen Kujal, Karen M. Douglas, Christopher M. Federico, Jolanda Jetten, Sander Van Der Linden, Flávio Azevedo Feb 2026

Authoritarianism And Conspiracism Around The World, Valerie Capraro, Folca Panizza, Joseph A. Vitriol, Mikey Biddlestone, Andrè Krouwel, Yordan Kutiyski, Alberto López Ortega, Ana Ebert, Max Wan, Praveen Kujal, Karen M. Douglas, Christopher M. Federico, Jolanda Jetten, Sander Van Der Linden, Flávio Azevedo

ESI Working Papers

Authoritarian leaders frequently deploy conspiracy narratives to justify power concentration and delegitimize opponents, yet the link between authoritarianism and conspiracism remains underresearched. Integrating data across six studies from multiple international surveys (N=63,403; 20 countries), expert-coded party systems (71 countries; 14 datasets), and longitudinal panel studies, we demonstrate that individuals with stronger authoritarian orientations are consistently more prone to conspiracism across diverse cultures, political contexts, and time. These results remain robust when controlling for populist attitudes and multiple political, psychological, and demographic variables. The link between authoritarianism and conspiracism appears to constitute a durable and generalizable psychological relationship. This may help …

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Exploring Public Opinions On Mining Governance And Preferences For Interventions To Enhance Battery Mineral Access, Mahelet G. Fikru, Sreeja Koppera, Nhien Nguyen Feb 2026

Exploring Public Opinions On Mining Governance And Preferences For Interventions To Enhance Battery Mineral Access, Mahelet G. Fikru, Sreeja Koppera, Nhien Nguyen

Economics Faculty Research & Creative Works

Based on an online survey of 1200 individuals, we examine support for new mining projects in the United States, opinions on mining governance, and preferences for various strategies to access battery minerals. We find support for domestic mining more so at the national (54 % support) than local level (32 % support), with a strong emphasis on environmental protection and multi-level governance. Respondents generally support government intervention to secure access to battery minerals, with over half agreeing with subsidizing electric vehicle (EV) producers and consumers to prioritize the use of domestic minerals in EV batteries. However, there is measurable opposition …

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Global Shocks, Institutional Development, And Trade Restrictions: What Can We Learn From Crises And Recoveries Between 1990 And 2022?, Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito, Donghyun Park, Jamel Saadaoui, Gazi Salah Uddin Feb 2026

Global Shocks, Institutional Development, And Trade Restrictions: What Can We Learn From Crises And Recoveries Between 1990 And 2022?, Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito, Donghyun Park, Jamel Saadaoui, Gazi Salah Uddin

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

The Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic were two major shocks to the world economy in the 21st century. In this study, we analyze the patterns of recessions and recoveries of 101 advanced and developing economies. We identify the turning points of recessions and expansions between 1990 and 2022, and perform cross-country analysis of domestic and external drivers of economic recovery. In addition to the standard independent variables, we include institutional development, political stability, the extent of democracy, and trade restrictions indexes, and explore their roles in explaining recessions and recovery patterns. For the whole sample, we find that …

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Initial-Condition-Robust Inference In Autoregressive Models, Donald W. K. Andrews, Ming Li, Yapeng Zheng Feb 2026

Initial-Condition-Robust Inference In Autoregressive Models, Donald W. K. Andrews, Ming Li, Yapeng Zheng

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper considers confidence intervals (CIs) for the autoregressive (AR) parameter in an AR model with an AR parameter that may be close or equal to one. Existing CIs rely on the assumption of a stationary or fixed initial condition to obtain correct asymptotic coverage and good finite sample coverage. When this assumption fails, their coverage can be quite poor. In this paper, we introduce a new CI for the AR parameter whose coverage probability is completely robust to the initial condition, both asymptotically and in finite samples. This CI pays only a small price in terms of its length …

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Projecting Inflation Tail Risks In A Small Open Economy: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Jordan Lee Feb 2026

Projecting Inflation Tail Risks In A Small Open Economy: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Jordan Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study empirically assesses the drivers of risks to the inflation outlook for a small open economy like Singapore. We apply the inflation-at-risk framework of López-Salido and Loria (2020) and incorporate projections from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) as point forecasts of inflation. Our findings show that macro-financial risk factors—shaped by Singapore’s openness, role as a financial hub, and exchange rate–centered monetary policy framework—enter nonlinearly into inflation risk models and exert differentiated effects. Foreign price pressures heighten upside risks, and exchange rate policy has proven effective at mitigating them. Tighter global financial conditions amplify inflation risks through cost-push channels, …

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New Asymptotics Applied To Functional Coefficient Regression And Climate Sensitivity Analysis, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang Feb 2026

New Asymptotics Applied To Functional Coefficient Regression And Climate Sensitivity Analysis, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

A general asymptotic theory is established for sample cross moments of nonstationary time series, allowing for long-range dependence and local unit roots. The theory provides a substantial extension of earlier results on nonparametric regression that include near-cointegrated nonparametric regression as well as spurious nonparametric regression. Many new models are covered by the limit theory, among which are functional coefficient regressions in which both regressors and the functional covariate are nonstationary. Simulations show finite sample performance matching well with the asymptotic theory and having broad relevance to applications, while revealing how dual nonstationarity in regressors and covariates raises sensitivity to bandwidth …

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A General Limit Theory For Nonlinear Functionals Of Nonstationary Time Series, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips Feb 2026

A General Limit Theory For Nonlinear Functionals Of Nonstationary Time Series, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

New limit theory is provided for a wide class of sample variance and covariance functionals involving both nonstationary and stationary time series. Sample functionals of this type commonly appear in regression applications and the asymptotics are particularly relevant to estimation and inference in nonlinear nonstationary regressions that involve unit root, local unit root, or fractional processes. The limit theory is unusually general in that it covers both parametric and nonparametric regressions. Self-normalized versions of these statistics are considered that are useful in inference. Numerical evidence reveals interesting strong bimodality in the finite sample distributions of conventional self-normalized statistics similar to …

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Are Cities Losing Innovation Advantages? Online Versus Face-To-Face Interactions, Ruben Gaetani, Naqun Huang, Jing Li, Yanmin Yang Feb 2026

Are Cities Losing Innovation Advantages? Online Versus Face-To-Face Interactions, Ruben Gaetani, Naqun Huang, Jing Li, Yanmin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

How did COVID-19 affect the innovation advantages of dense locations? Using data on the universe of U.S. patent applications, we find that the density premium in the production of novel inventions declined by 18.5%-22.9% in 2020-2021 relative to its pre-pandemic level. Smartphone data on local mobility suggest that the drop in the frequency of local interactions can explain a significant portion of this effect. While COVID-19 resulted in a temporary setback in the innovation advantages of dense locations, the role of urban density in facilitating the exchange and recombination of ideas is unlikely to be persistently replaced by online communication.

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Removed: When Taxi Drivers Meet Dynamic Pricing: A Lesson From Singapore's Justgrab Program, Shih-Fen Cheng, Wen-Tai Hsu, Jing Li Feb 2026

Removed: When Taxi Drivers Meet Dynamic Pricing: A Lesson From Singapore's Justgrab Program, Shih-Fen Cheng, Wen-Tai Hsu, Jing Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies how dynamic pricing influences taxi drivers’ behaviors using a unique event, the inception of the JustGrab program in Singapore in 2017, which introduces dynamic pricing to some, but not all, taxi drivers. This is the first time in history that traditional taxi drivers have access to dynamic pricing. Using data covering the universe of taxi trips before and after the inception of JustGrab, we find that there is spatial reallocation that directs more taxi drivers to the previously less-served areas, that there is also a temporal reallocation that directs more taxi drivers to rush hours, as well …

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Efficient Bilateral Trade With Interdependent Values: The Use Of Two-Stage Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang Feb 2026

Efficient Bilateral Trade With Interdependent Values: The Use Of Two-Stage Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Efficient, voluntary bilateral trades are generally not implementable in an interdependent values environment with two-sided asymmetric information. To obtain more positive results, we consider two-stage mechanisms in which (i) the outcome (e.g., allocation of the goods) is determined first; (ii) the agents partially learn the state via their own outcome-decision payoffs; and (iii) transfers are finally made. We propose the approximate shoot-the-liar (AS) mechanism and identify Assumption 1, under which “approximately” efficient, voluntary trades are implementable. We further illustrate the permissiveness of the assumption, and characterize it in terms of the nature of interdependence in valuation functions – delineating the …

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Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects: M-Estimation And Inference Under Fixed Or Relatively Small T, Liyao Li, Ke Miao, Zhenlin Yang Feb 2026

Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects: M-Estimation And Inference Under Fixed Or Relatively Small T, Liyao Li, Ke Miao, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose an M-estimation method for dynamic spatial panel data models with interactive fixed effects based on (relatively) short panels. Unbiased estimating functions are constructed by adjusting the concentrated conditional quasi scores, given the initial values and with the factor loadings being concentrated out, to account for the effects of conditioning and concentration. Solving the estimating equations gives the M-estimators of the common parameters and common factors. Under fixed T, n-consistency and joint asymptotic normality of the M-estimators are established. Under T = o(n), the M-estimators of the common parameters are shown to be nT-consistent and asymptotically normal. For inference, …

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Brand Switching Or Behavior Change: The 2023 Bud Light Boycott's Impact On Alcohol Purchases, Aljoscha Janssen Feb 2026

Brand Switching Or Behavior Change: The 2023 Bud Light Boycott's Impact On Alcohol Purchases, Aljoscha Janssen

Research Collection School Of Economics

I study how the 2023 Bud Light boycott affected overall alcohol demand using household-level panel data and a set of difference-in-differences designs. Focusing on households that, before April 2023, regularly purchased Bud Light, I find a large drop in Bud Light volume (34%–37%), partial switching into other beer (＋70 to ＋90 ounces per month), and a net decline in total ethanol purchases of about 3–4 fl-oz per month, or roughly 5.5%–7.5% of pre-boycott intake. I detect no compensatory increase in wine or spirits. Scaled nationally, the quantity response is equivalent to roughly 150 million standard drinks per year; using CDC …

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Interest Rate And Inflation Control In Egypt: Evaluating Policy Efficiency (1976-2023), Fatma Abouzeid Feb 2026

Interest Rate And Inflation Control In Egypt: Evaluating Policy Efficiency (1976-2023), Fatma Abouzeid

Theses and Dissertations

Inflation has been a persistent problem in Egypt peaking with unprecedented levels throughout the past decades affecting economic stability and living standards in the country. Controlling inflation through interest rate has been a major tool adopted by the monetary authorities in Egypt with no real satisfactory outcome with respect to inflation levels. This links to a theoretical debate in economic literate on the relationship between interest rate and inflation which represents a major controversy in the field. The study examines this controversy in the case of Egypt to reach a conclusion on the actual relationship between these two central economic …

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Agency Mbs As Safe Assets, Zhiguo He, Zhaogang Song Feb 2026

Agency Mbs As Safe Assets, Zhiguo He, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Measured as yield spreads against Treasury securities and AAA corporate bonds, the convenience premium of newly issued agency MBS averages more than half of the long-term Treasury convenience premium. The agency MBS convenience premium and issuance amount vary negatively with mortgage rate, consistent with a prepayment-driven channel. Placing agencies into conservatorship in 2008 and introducing liquidity regulations in 2013 significantly affected MBS convenience premium, consistent with government guarantee and regulatory treatment channels. Analyses of dispersion of dealers’ prepayment forecasts, seasoned MBS, and investors’ MBS holdings deliver further economic implications for agency MBS as safe assets.

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Teaching Principles Of Macroeconomics In One Equation Jan 2026

Teaching Principles Of Macroeconomics In One Equation

Journal of Economics and Finance Education

We leverage the quantity theory of money in teaching because it represents well the big picture of macroeconomics and the relationships between key macroeconomic variables, providing a simple intuition and unified framework. To spark interest, we design authentic learning activities that begin with the opening minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference. Then, we illustrate in a simple classroom experiment how quantity theory works and why it relates to the FOMC decisions. To further equip students with macro data interpretation skills, we assign group presentations on economic outlook for non-US countries.

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Ai Teaching Assistants In Higher Education: A Case Study In Pedagogical Integration And Support Jan 2026

Ai Teaching Assistants In Higher Education: A Case Study In Pedagogical Integration And Support

Journal of Economics and Finance Education

This case study examines the implementation of three customized AI teaching assistants in a graduate quantitative methods course for adult learners. Designed to provide timely, course-specific support, the AI tools enhanced student engagement, upheld academic integrity, and aligned with pedagogical principles such as constructivist learning and formative assessment. The assistants were evaluated on the accuracy of their responses and compliance with behavioral requirements. Student feedback indicated improved learning and reduced frustration. This study offers a replicable model for responsibly integrating AI in higher education to support diverse learner needs and promote academic success.

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Understanding The Option Greeks And Option Strategies: An Example Using Apple Earnings Jan 2026

Understanding The Option Greeks And Option Strategies: An Example Using Apple Earnings

Journal of Economics and Finance Education

Students often struggle with understanding option price movements involving the interaction of option “Greeks” and option values. This case study examines the option price movements driven by delta, time decay, and implied volatility following an Apple earnings announcement. The exercise involves students strategically selecting options across multiple strategies and reveals the impact of changes in implied volatility which leads to counterintuitive option price reactions. The goal of the exercise is to bring awareness to the intricacies of option pricing in an empirical setting. We find that comprehension and retention increase significantly when a case study is performed using actual data.

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