Digital Commons Network^™

When Wedding Bells Stop Ringing: An Economic Analysis Of The U.S. Fertility Crisis, Mia Sideris

Business and Economics Honors Papers

Fertility in the U.S. has been in steady decline since the Great Recession. Surveyed opinions suggest this trend stems less from changing attitudes in ideal family size, and more from tangible barriers preventing people from having as many children as they desire. This paper explores several economic and social pressures that may have contributed to this discrepancy, with an emphasis on marriage. Marriage is considered to be the infrastructure that enables childbearing by minimizing both monetary and time costs. Using fixed effects and random forest regression, we estimate the impact of these measures and their relative importance on fertility decisions. …

The Impact Of Monetary Policy Announcements On Trading Reactions To Earnings Reports, Sean A. Maxfield

Economics Honors Projects

This paper examines trading reactions to quarterly earnings reports and the impact of recent monetary policy announcements by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). It argues that the market, as a product of rational and irrational investor behavior, interprets firms’ financial performance within a broader macroeconomic context, affirming the causal channels found in similar studies. This study differs from prior research by looking at the recent, not simultaneous, monetary policy announcement for each earnings announcement in order to understand if the two types of information remain complementary. By conducting an event study model, this study confirms that the interaction of …

Money And Power: How Big Money Shapes Democracy In The United States, Paige Long

Thinking Matters Symposium

This project explores the question: what could and should be done to strengthen democracy in the United States? More specifically, it examines the role that large amounts of money in politics play in shaping political power and representation. The central argument of this project is that reducing the influence of big money in political campaigns and policymaking is necessary for creating a more fair and representative democratic system. When wealthy donors, corporations, and special interest groups are able to spend large amounts of money to influence elections and policy decisions, it can limit the political voice of ordinary citizens.

This …

Losses And Labor: Experimental Insights Into Worker Effort Supply And Behavioral Biases, Maia Lemov

Economics Honors Projects

Worker effort supply is influenced not only by rational expectations but also biases such as framing and numerical presentation of incentives. Identifying these effects is essential for designing effective incentives. To study left-digit manipulation, loss aversion, and loss aversion prediction, I conducted an experiment in an online labor market. Participants completed a real-effort typing task, a willingness- to-pay (WTP) task, and a self-reported loss aversion survey. Loss framing and left-digit manipulation had no statistically significant effects on effort, with no interaction effect, suggesting their influence on effort-supply may be overstated or highly heterogeneous. Despite null treatment effects, behaviorally elicited loss …

Two Essays In Development: Convergence And Technological Adoption, Jacob Campbell

All Dissertations

This dissertation is comprised of two essays in development economics, both related to conver gence either in outcomes (Chapter 1) or ultimate causes (Chapter 2).

Chapter 1:

This paper investigates the dynamics of productivity convergence across the United States from 1800 to 2020. Exploiting a novel historical dataset from Tamura et al. (2025), I examine β- and σ-convergence at both aggregate and sectoral levels for the entire history of the United States. I f ind a long-run trend toward convergence consistent with the conditions of an integrated national market with free mobility of labor and capital. However, the pace of …

National Center For Children In Poverty Releases 2025/2026 Tanf Cash Assistance Policy Series, Karen Chatfield, Sydney Elltringham

All Faculty and Staff Papers and Presentations

The National Center for Children in Poverty (NCCP) at Bank Street Graduate School of Education has released its 2025/2026 TANF Cash Assistance Policy Series to help support policymakers and advocates in strengthening these vital supports.

Civilian Mass Killings Perpetrated By Nonstate Actors: Data Trends And Theoretical And Empirical Risk Factors, Charles H. Anderton, Roxane A. Anderton

Economics

This article addresses two research questions: (1) What are recent trends in nonstate actor (NSA) civilian mass killings by country locations and perpetrator groups? and (2) What are risk factors for NSA civilian mass killings based on economic choice theory and large-sample empirical inquiry? We summarize recent data on mass killings perpetrated by various NSAs including rebel groups; political, territorial, and identity militias; and terrorist organizations. Following a review of the empirical NSA mass killing literature, we develop an economic choice model of a NSA's resource allocations to direct (military) fighting and to violence against civilians when in contestation with …

Exploring The Impact Of Poverty On Financial Literacy: The Role Of Parental Education In College Student Financial Behavior, Zoe Williams

Honors Theses

Many college students experience financial stress, yet financial hardship is often explained as a simple lack of financial knowledge. Recent research suggests that how students are socialized around money may matter just as much as what they know. In this study, I examined whether parental education, specifically first-generation college status, changes the relationship between household income and financial health among undergraduate students at a regional public university in the southeastern United States. Participants included 204 undergraduates recruited through the university research pool. Students reported household income (categorized as < $50,000 or >$50,000), first-generation status, and financial behaviors. Financial literacy was measured using an …

On The Trail, In The Towns: Visitor Use And Community Perspectives Along Montana’S Continental Divide Trail, Ava Worbets, Kika Bradford, Melissa Weddell

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

As outdoor recreation participation has steadily increased nationwide over the past decade, reaching record levels in 2024 amid long‑term growth trends (OIA, 2025), the Continental Divide Trail (CDT) is drawing rising numbers of hikers traveling through Montana’s gateway communities. Yet little is known about who these hikers are or how their presence affects the towns that support them. This report examines CDT hikers and their relationships with Montana gateway communities from two complementary perspectives. First, understanding hikers’ demographics, spending patterns, and trail behaviors using data from 507 respondents who completed Montana’s CDT sections between 2022 and 2024. Second, exploring how …

The Goad, The Bad, & The Ugly: The Livestreamed Vice Signaling & Body Fascism Of Clavicular & Asmongold, Jacob T. Fry

Department of Communication Studies: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This thesis explores the rhetorical, material, and symbolic implications of fascist livestreaming in the United States through two popular streamers: Clavicular and Asmongold. These two streamers represent a small slice of the rise of different reactionary rhetorics online and how the use of different masculine subcultures—in this case ‘Looksmaxxing’ or Gamer inspired rhetoric—are used as ideological texts for white male supremacy. Whether in front of the glow of their gaming monitor or the flashing lights of a nightclub, the livestreaming of the body, home, relationships, and lifestyles challenge rhetorical conceptions of style, the ‘public/private sphere,’ and political communication. As different …

Gme As A Healthcare And Economic Driver In Southern Nevada, Tripp Umbach

Policy Briefs and Reports

In early 2025, the Nevada Health and Bioscience Corporation (NHBC) commissioned Tripp Umbach to conduct a comprehensive study examining the current state and future expansion of physician training and retention in Southern Nevada. The approach recommended in this report is rooted in strategic partnerships among medical institutions, proven funding approaches, and needed policy changes. Tripp Umbach, a nationally renowned private consultancy specializing in medical education expansion strategies, reviewed data, conducted interviews, and developed recommendations to expand GME, highlighting its profound economic impact in Southern Nevada.

Red, White, And Broke: A Call For Accountability In Government, Mary A. Scott

Honors Theses

This study examines the scale of waste, fraud, and abuse in U.S. federal spending. The purpose of this research is to clarify how fiscal management in the federal government is intended to operate versus how it actually functions. Using a combination of conceptual analysis, existing literature, case-based evidence, and data analysis, findings suggest that the persistence of oversight failures arises from weak implementation, limited enforcement authority of oversight bodies, and an emphasis on recovery rather than prevention practices. This study contributes to the broader discussion of public finance by providing an accessible framework to understand why the foundational federal principle …

Effects Of Punitive Immigration Enforcement On The Health Of Latinos With Lower Educational Attainment, Andrea Sofia Mendoza

Theses and Dissertations

This paper analyzes the effects of the Secure Communities (SC) immigration enforcement program on self reported health and healthcare-seeking behaviors of citizen and non-citizen Latinos with lower educational attainment. SC allowed local jails to use FBI and DHS data to determine whether arrested individuals were eligible for deportation. SC was rolled out across counties from late 2008 through 2013. Using data from the Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance Survey (BRFSS) and implementation records from Alsan and Yang (2024), staggered difference-in- difference regression estimates show that SC implementation increased the likelihood of a reported heart attack and heart disease across the sample. …

The Supply-Side Effects Of Air Pollution On Local Non-Polluting Industries, Erin Hyman

Theses and Dissertations

This paper examines the relationship between PM2.5 and the production of goods and services across industries using a county–industry panel (1999–2013). Fixed effects regressions show higher activity in manufacturing but relative declines in non-polluting sectors, suggesting pollution reflects production intensity and a reallocation toward polluting industries.

The Effect Of Inbound Tourism On Consumer Prices In Japan, Serenity E. Thompson

Theses and Dissertations

This paper uses monthly prefectural data to estimate the effect of inbound tourism on Japan’s consumer prices. Results indicate that a 10% increase in foreign overnight stays is associated with a 0.01% increase in capital city prices. The paper discusses localized dual pricing as a response to these price pressures.

The Effect Of Prenatal Substance Use Policies On Women's Well-Being, Zukruf Alam

Theses and Dissertations

This paper examines the effects of punitive and priority treatment policies relating to the use of illicit substances during pregnancy on women's health and health-related behavior. Punitive interventions criminalize substance use during pregnancy, which can even lead to termination of parental rights. In contrast, priority treatment policies support pregnant women and grant them priority access to substance use disorder treatment programs. I use staggered difference-in-differences methods and data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data from 2004 to 2018 to estimate the impact of prenatal substance use policies on women's mental health, physical health, self-reported poor health, and cigarette …

Private Equity, State Enforcement, And Arbitration Outcomes Under The No Surprises Act: Evidence From Air Ambulance Disputes, Peter Readman

Theses and Dissertations

The No Surprises Act (NSA) removed patients from responsibility for out-of-network surprise medical bills. In its place, the NSA established an independent dispute resolution (IDR) process through which providers and insurers submit competing payment offers to an arbitrator, who selects one offer in full. Using the universe of federal air ambulance IDR disputes from Q1 2023 through Q2 2025 (57,368 dispute line items), I examine whether provider ownership structure and enforcement jurisdiction jointly predict arbitration outcomes. The two outcomes, whether the provider offer prevails, and how large that prevailing offer is relative to the benchmark payment rate, the Qualifying Payment …

Congestion Pricing And Traffic Safety: Evidence From New York City, Mirella Charros

Theses and Dissertations

This paper examines the impact of congestion pricing on motor vehicle collisions in New York City. Using a spatial difference-in-differences approach, the study finds evidence of increased collisions near the congestion boundary, suggesting potential spillover effects and changes in traffic patterns following policy implementation.

Air Pollution And Self-Reported Health Outcomes In The United States, Alina Dervisevic

Theses and Dissertations

This study examines the relationship between short-term PM2.5 exposure and self-reported health outcomes among U.S. adults using BRFSS data from 2000 to 2012 linked to county-level pollution and weather data. Results show that PM2.5 exposure is associated with worse mental health and gender specific behavioral responses.

Manipulation Or Monetization?: The Rise Of Stock Buybacks And Their Effects On Firm Valuation And Investment, Thomas H. Serrano

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

Abstract:

This thesis uses basic econometrics to examine the relationship between stock buybacks, firm valuation, and investment among publicly traded firms from 2000-2024. Using firm-level data pulled from Compustat North America and a fixed-effect multivariate regression, it evaluates whether buybacks are associated with higher valuation and stronger productive investment as defined in the paper. The results show that buybacks are positively associated with firm valuation the first year that they occur, but the relationship disappears when they are lagged for a year. Furthermore, the analysis does not find strong statistical evidence that repurchases are associated with changes in investment, or …

Herding In Artificial Intelligence, John Cotter

Honors Scholar Theses

This paper examines whether increased attention to artificial intelligence (AI) influences herding behavior in financial markets. As AI has become a dominant theme in both financial markets and public discourse, understanding how investor attention affects behavior has become increasingly important. Herding behavior is measured using the Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation (CSAD) methodology developed by Chang, Cheng, and Khorana (2000). The analysis uses daily data from December 2019 through November 2025 and focuses on the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (AIQ) as a proxy for the AI sector. Investor attention is measured using a composite Google Search Volume Index (SVI) …

Fascism Usa: Class And Identity Politics In The Age Of Trump, Marc Edelman

Publications and Research

This essay argues that Trump’s triumph in the 2024 presidential contest represents the consolidation of an oligarchical authoritarian project, backed by a multi-class and (surprisingly, for some) multi-racial electorate. It brought intensified state and freelance attacks on immigrants, labor unions, women, LGBTQ+ people, journalists, civil servants, assorted “political enemies,” and other groups that the MAGA movement targets. It is institutionalizing authoritarian governance structures in ways that will be exceedingly difficult to undo. The paper first addresses the experience of growing up in the shadow of fascism. It analyzes various sectors that supported Trump and the impacts of inflation, incumbency, economic …

Two Essays On Finance: The Dark Side Of The Ceo Inside Debt: Evidence From Stock Price Crash Risk And Cybersecurity Risk And Corporate Bond Yield Spreads, Amir Gholami

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation comprises of two papers. In the first paper, I found that despite being thought of as a governance mechanism, CEO inside debt seems to distort firms’ information environment. My results indicate that the CEO inside debt creates an incentive for managers to hoard bad news to prevent technical defaults, leading to increasing stock price crash risk. My results are robust after addressing endogeneity using the instrumental variable (IV) approach, a difference-in-differences test based on the implementation of Internal Revenue Code Section 409A Final Regulations, and Oster’s omitted variable diagnostic test, and selection bias using the propensity score matching …

Two Essays On Finance: Co-Opted Directors And Mergers And Acquisitions And The Impact Of Biodiversity Risk On The Cost Of Bank Loans, Fariba Gholami

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation comprises of two papers. In the first paper, co-opted board members, those appointed after the CEO assumes office, are poor monitors and, contrary to prior assumptions, ineffective advisors. I show that board co-option is associated with suboptimal merger and acquisition (M&A) decisions, adverse deal characteristics, and lower acquirer’s short- and long term returns and operating performance. These results are robust to the use of propensity score matching, entropy balancing, Instrumental variable using 2SLS, and difference-in-differences to address selection bias and endogeneity. Cross-sectional evidence indicates that the negative effects of board co-option are more pronounced when boards are less …

The Macroeconomics Of Intergenerational Mental Health Dynamics, Boaz Abramson, Job Boerma, Diego Daruich, Aleh Tsyvinski

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We develop a quantitative macroeconomic theory of child mental health. The theory is grounded in child psychiatry, formalized in a life-cycle heterogeneous agent model of child development, and disciplined using micro data on mental health of children and parents. Intergenerational transmission of mental illness arises due to both biological factors and parental behavior. Parents experiencing mental illness have negative expectations and lose time due to rumination. As a result, they invest less in their child’s mental health. We use the model to evaluate policies designed to improve child mental health. We show that subsidizing mental health treatment for children generates …

Position: The Pre/Post-Training Boundary Should Govern Ip In Industry–Academia Ml Collaborations, Dirk Bergemann, Soheil Ghili, Nitzan Mekel-Bobrov

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Industry–academia ML collaborations routinely fail to launch—not for scientific reasons, but because academics must publish while companies must protect models trained on proprietary data, and no standard contract framework resolves this tension. Because contracts are negotiated by legal departments alone, many apparent legal disputes are incentive misalignment problems that only scientists at the table can correctly diagnose. We propose PBOS (Protect-the-Business / Open-Source-the-Science), a community-adoptable contract template anchored to a single technically-grounded boundary: pre-training artifacts (architectures, training code, benchmarks, untrained weights) are open science; post-training artifacts (weights trained on proprietary data) are business IP. This boundary is technically meaningful, legally …

Class Peers As Competitors And Educators: The Consequences Of Rank-Based Academic Rewards, Mark R. Rosenzweig, Bing Xu

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper examines the theoretical and empirical consequences of rank-based reward systems in schools in which students’ performance and effort are evaluated relative to their peers. In such environments, classmates act simultaneously as competitors—due to rank-determined rewards—and as educators through peer learning and assistance. Using nationally representative panel survey data from U.S. high schools, combined with administrative information on the location assignments of new refugee student cohorts, we exploit variation in school competition policies and class ability compositions to identify empirically their dual effects on student effort and peer learning. We develop a theoretical tournament model with heterogeneous students who …

Towards A Methodology For Measuring Rental Property Ownership In The United States, Stephanie Kestelman, Rebecca Diamond, John Eric Humphries, Kate Pennington, Winnie Van Dijk, John Voorheis

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Roughly one-third of U.S. households rent their homes, yet measuring who owns rental property is difficult: ownership is frequently obscured by LLCs, partnerships, and other intermediary entities that separate legal from economic control. We develop a method that traces ownership through administrative records—combining deeds and property assessments with the Census Bureau’s Business Register, IRS Schedule K-1 filings, and SEC filings on REITs—to identify ultimate owners and construct property portfolios across the full landlord size distribution. Applying the method to 11 large CBSAs, we find that individual landlords own a large majority of rental units, though their share varies meaningfully across …

From People’S War To People’S Rule: Rebel Governance And The Foundations Of Inclusive Democracy, Bhishma Bhusal, Michael Callen, Rohini Pande, Soledad Prillaman, Deepak Singhania, Apurva Subedi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

How does wartime rebel governance shape post-conflict institutions? We study this in Nepal, where the Maoist People's War (1996–2006) dismantled a 240-year caste-based monarchy and ended with Maoists entering democratic politics. During the conflict, Maoists established sub-national “People’s Governments” that administered justice, collected taxes, and delivered local services. Using a spatial regression-discontinuity design, we show that exposure to People's Governments increased political knowledge and participation especially among historically marginalized indigenous groups (Janajatis). Exposure also reshaped party institutions and inter-party competition: candidate-selection committees in more exposed areas have 26 percent more Janajati members who, drawing on novel implicit-attitude data, exhibit less …

Learning Through Imitation: An Experiment, Marina Agranov, Gabriel Lopez-Moctezuma, Philipp Strack, Omer Tamuz

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We compare how well agents aggregate information in two repeated social learning environments. In the first setting agents have access to a public data set. In the second they have access to the same data, and also to the past actions of others. Despite the fact that actions contain no additional payoff-relevant information, and despite potential herd behavior, free riding and information overload issues, observing and imitating the actions of others leads agents to take the optimal action more often in the second setting. We also investigate the effect of group size, as well as a setting in which agents …