Digital Commons Network^™

Navigating Unemployment Without Unemployment Insurance: Evidence From Singapore, Kim, Lanjie Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study investigates the short-term impacts of unemployment among older workers (aged 50–62) in Singapore, a setting with-out public unemployment insurance. Using monthly panel data from the Singapore Life Panel, we analyse dynamic effects onmajor life outcomes such as income, spending, health, and subjective wellbeing over 2 years post-unemployment. Our findingsreveal substantial initial earnings losses with incomplete recovery: income remains 50.7% below pre-unemployment levels after24 months. Despite this persistent income gap, total household expenditure declines by 9.8% on average over 2 years (rangingfrom 7% to 16% across months). The implied two-year marginal propensity to consume is about 0.182, smaller than …

How Do Sectoral Shocks Shape Future Gdp?, Paul Ho, Danial Lashkari, Pierre-Daniel Sarte

Research Collection School Of Economics

A production sector’s size, as measured by its Domar weight, captures the contemporaneous aggregate effect of its productivity shocks. Any future aggregate effects, however, depend on that sector’s participation in the investment network. We derive a dynamic generalization of Hulten’s theorem in an environment with intermediate-input and investment networks. This generalization, implied by production efficiency alone, decomposes each sector’s Domar weight into an impact and a propagation component. The relative size of these components then determines how persistent the aggregate effects of sectoral shocks are, but cannot be known absent information on the economy’s production structure. We show in a …

The Effect Of Vaccine Mandates On Disease Spread: Evidence From College Covid-19 Mandates, Riley K. Acton, Wenjia Cao, Emily E. Cook, Scott A. Imberman, Michael F. Lovenheim

Research Collection School Of Economics

Nearly 700 4-year U.S. colleges mandated students receive COVID-19 vaccinations in fall 2021. Using data on college policies and county health, we estimate how mandates affect surrounding communities. Event studies from August to November 2021 show that mandates covering all colleges in a county reduced COVID-19 deaths by 5.6 per 100,000 persons, a 4.6% reduction in the U.S. total during this period. Mandates reduced COVID cases by 504 and ICU admissions by 16.2 per 100,000, though we see no statistically significant impact on hospitalizations. Impacts are larger in counties with larger college populations and low estimated ex-ante student vaccination rates.

The Unintended Consequences Of International Student Shortage: Evidence From South Korea, Chung-Yoon Choi, Syngjoo Choi, Seonghoon Kim, Jongkwan Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the role of international students in the higher education sector and the local economy by exploiting a policy reform in South Korea that restricted the admission of foreign students to local universities. By comparing the pre- and post-reform differences across universities with different pre-reform shares of international student enrollment, we show that an international student shortage resulting from this policy reform significantly worsened the financial outcomes of universities and consequently led to reduced investment in their students. We also document that a reduction in the number of international students in local areas decreased native employment, mainly in low-skilled …

Multidimensional Screening For Quality With An Application To Health Insurance, Hector Chade, Victoria Marone, Amanda Starc, Jeroen Swinkels

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We analyze a multidimensional screening model in which a principal offers a menu of quality-price pairs to a consumer with multiple dimensions of private information and a quasilinear utility function. We derive necessary conditions for optimality, and use them to provide insight into optimal exclusion, positive trade, and screening. We then recast the problem in terms of incremental quality levels and prices, the so-called demand-profile approach (DPA). Under DPA, the problem decouples across increments and can be solved one at a time. We provide novel conditions under which DPA recovers the solution to the full problem exactly or approximately, and …

Close To Home? Five Key Facts About Child Care Customer And Worker Commutes, Gabrielle Pepin, Jonathan Borowsky, Elizabeth E. Davis, Aaron Sojourner

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Parents often cite location and convenience as important factors in choosing a child care provider. We use data on individual mobility from GPS in cell phones to study commutes to each licensed early childhood care and education (ECE) provider in 14 states separately for center customers, center workers, and customers of home-based child care providers. We document five key facts about ECE customer and worker commutes. One, center customers and workers commute farther than home-based customers to ECE providers. Two, substantial shares of customers and workers commute 10+ miles to their ECE provider. Three, commute distances to ECE providers vary …

Expanding The Cognitive Attentional Standards Platform Through Artificial Influence Assessment (Aia): Rationale, Development, And Measurement Design, Delante Clark

Graduate Scholarship and Creative Works

Artificial intelligence is increasingly shaping how individuals access information, make decisions, and interact with digital environments. The Cognitive Attentional Standards Platform (C.A.S.) was developed to assess attention related harms, cognitive safety, digital autonomy, and platform influence across digital systems (Clark, 2026). However, the growth of generative AI, conversational agents, and algorithmic decision support technologies has introduced new forms of influence that may not be fully captured by existing assessment domains. This paper proposes the Artificial Influence Assessment (AIA) as an expansion of the C.A.S. framework designed to measure AI mediated influence on cognition, behavior, autonomy, and information processing. Drawing on …

Governing Algorithmic Attention: Attention Safeguard Models And The Cognitive Attentional Standard As System Level Interventions In Human Computer Interaction, Behavioral Economics, And Artificial Intelligence, Delante Clark

Graduate Scholarship and Creative Works

Algorithmic recommendation systems and interface designs shape attention by combining visually salient cues with uncertain reward timing and low friction interaction. These conditions can sustain anticipatory checking, extend time on task, and reduce natural disengagement points through patterns such as infinite scrolling and autoplay. This paper synthesizes research across neuroscience, human computer interaction, behavioral economics, and artificial intelligence to argue that attention capture is a predictable outcome of incentive driven design rather than an individual failure of self regulation. It advances the Attention Safeguard Models and the Cognitive Attentional Standard as system level interventions that regulate exposure conditions, pacing, and …

Value-Chain Factors Influencing Production Volume And Gross Margin: Evidence From A Thai Dairy Processing Firm, Jiranij Jareonsawat, Aqeel Raza, Kittisak Ajariyakhajorn, Davids Makararpong, Henk Hogeveen, Chainarong Paoin, Nampueng Mesprasat, Chaidate Inchaisri

The Thai Journal of Veterinary Medicine

The dairy industry is vital for food security and economic stability, particularly in developing markets such as Thailand. Understanding factors related to production volume and gross margin in dairy processing firms can help inform performance and profitability considerations. Based on Porter’s value chain framework and a perception-based survey approach, this study used document reviews, in-depth interviews with 14 key informants, and an employee perception survey (n = 21) covering 74 relevant factors. Results indicated significant differences across ten activity categories for both production volume (Χ2 = 53.59, df = 9, P < 0.001) and gross margin (Χ2 = 26.89, df = 9, P < 0.001). For production volume, research and development (3.96 ± 0.66), human resources management (3.93 ± 0.63), and external factors (3.82 ± 0.82) had the highest mean perceived importance scores. For gross margin, external factors recorded the highest mean score (3.96 ± 0.81). At the factor level, the Thai government-regulated raw milk price was classified as the most important factor associated with production volume, while fuel prices were the most important factor related to gross margin. Both factors had the highest proportion of “High” and “Very High” responses (90.5%). These findings highlight the importance of aligning internal activities with external conditions within an institutional and policy context. This study provides insights into how institutional and policy constraints shape the way firm-level activities and external conditions are perceived and prioritized, and how these perceptions relate to performance in dairy processing firms in Thailand.

Predicting Thoroughbred Yearling Auction Prices With Machine Learning: Evidence From The Keeneland September Sale, Yanchao Yang, John Clarke, Tapaan Madal '26, Thinh Nguyen '26, Trung Pham '25

Business Analytics Faculty Publications

We apply machine learning methods to predict Thoroughbred yearling auction prices at the Keeneland September Sale (2020–2024). Our sample includes 5,788 yearling prices with pedigree data. We use both linear and tree-based models to predict log prices. We use cross-validation to tune model hyperparameters and select Ridge regression (α = 1.451) as the primary model for interpretation given its stability and interpretability. The Ridge regression explains approximately 54% of out-of-sample variation (R2≈ 0.5403). Sire and Dam Reputation emerge as the dominant predictors. Results provide pricing benchmarks and show how reputation and session structure shape Thoroughbred yearling auction prices.

Expansion, Diversification, And Delinquency In Indonesian Fintech Lending Platforms, Muhammad Miqdad Robbani, Megat Nagainaka, Mahanani Margani

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study examines the impact of loan expansion and diversification strategies on credit risk in Indonesia’s fintech lending sector using panel data from 102 registered platforms between 2022 and 2025. Employing fixed-effects regression models, we analyse how loan growth and diversification influence delinquent loans. The findings reveal a non-linear relationship between loan growth and delinquent loans, implying that while moderate expansion reduces risk, excessive growth is associated with increased credit defaults, and diversification is not significant. These findings emphasise the importance of prudent growth and targeted risk management to ensure the sustainability of the fintech lending ecosystem.

The Other Side Of Peruvian Private Pension System, Paolo Daniel Jara

Journal of New Finance

Between 2020 and 2025, Peru's Congress authorized eight extraordinary withdrawal rounds from the Private Pension System (SPP), liquidating USD 38 billion. This paper argues that the trajectory is the empirical convergence of two analytically distinct failures. The first, from below, reflects the mismatch between the system's behavioral assumptions and a heterogeneous, predominantly informal workforce. The second, from above, reflects short-cycle electoral incentives, institutional asymmetry between Congress and the regulator, and slippery-slope dynamics. The paper proposes a reform combining free disposal of pension funds with individual fiscal responsibility, mediated by a binding waiver of the state-funded solidarity pension.

Retirement At Risk: The Political Economy Of Public Pension Governance, Allen Mendenhall, Dan Sutter

Journal of New Finance

State public pension systems manage over $6 trillion in assets while facing approximately $1.3 trillion in unfunded liabilities, raising fundamental questions about governance effectiveness and fiduciary accountability. This Article examines these challenges through the analytical framework of governance, applying insights from public choice, principal-agent models, and corporate governance to argue that details in implementation significantly impact outcomes.  We offer Ohio’s State Teachers Retirement System (STRS) as a case study. Recent governance reforms in Ohio—including legislative restructuring of the STRS board and enactment of fiduciary standards legislation modeled on the American Legislative Exchange Council’s framework—suggest the potential for earlier governance problems. …

Analyzing Retirement Systems Through A Triad Framework: Lessons For U.S. Reform, Romina Boccia, Ivane Nachkebia

Journal of New Finance

As U.S. Social Security approaches insolvency, this paper analyzes the program’s challenges through a political economy lens and makes two new contributions. First, it introduces a normative triad framework for evaluating retirement systems based on individual autonomy, fiscal sustainability, and poverty alleviation. Second, it applies this framework to five advanced economies—Canada, Germany, New Zealand, Sweden, and the U.S.—to identify institutional features associated with differences in outcomes. Deriving implications for U.S. reform, we propose four recommendations: transition Social Security to a flat-benefit system, slow benefit growth, adopt automatic stabilizers, and expand flexible savings options.

Education For Sustainable Economic Development – Insights From Brazil, Ozéias Rodrigues Da Rocha

Doctoral

Purpose: This doctoral thesis examines the impact of Education for Economic Sustainable Development (ESD) in the municipality of Turmalina-MG, Brazil, with a focus on how primary education contributes to sustainable economic growth, environmental sustainability, and social equity. The research is guided by the central question: What is the impact of Education for Economic Sustainable Development (ESD)? The study also evaluates the extent to which local educational initiatives align with specific Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 4 (Quality Education) and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).

Methodology: Data were collected from one dominant primary school in Turmalina-MG through semi-structured …

The Interplay Between Deficit Spending And Financial Instability: An Examination Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy Interactions, Heidie Jean George

Doctoral Dissertations and Projects

This study investigates the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on financial stability and fragility, focusing on how government spending and deficits contribute to the economic and financial system. Drawing on Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) and Financial Fragility Hypothesis (FFH), the research examines the dynamic relationship between fiscal policy, financial stability, and economic stability. The study focuses on understanding how government spending and deficits affect the economic and financial system in context of private and public debt and policy interactions and the role of system risk factors. The study uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Vector Autoregression (VAR), Impulse Response …

Parental Gender Bias In Youth Employment Standards: Evidence From Upper Egypt, Mahmoud Saeed

Theses and Dissertations

Youth unemployment remains a critical challenge in Egypt, with female labor force participation among the lowest globally. While structural factors such as limited job creation and public sector contraction are well-documented, the role of family-level decision-making in constraining women's labor market entry has received limited quantitative attention. This thesis examines parental gender bias in employment standards in Upper Egypt, investigating whether and how parents impose systematically different job requirements for daughters compared to sons. Using primary survey data from 17,284 unemployed youth aged 18-35 across six governorates, paired with responses from their parents, this study analyzes parental preferences across six …

Special Economic Zones And Industrial Pollution: Evidence From Vietnam, Hannah Huang

Economics Undergraduate Senior Theses

Vietnam has seen rapid economic development, driven in part due to a proliferation of over 300 Special Economic Zones (SEZs) across the country since 1991. This paper exploits the staggered rollout of SEZs across the country to identify the effect of SEZ establishment on local air pollution in Vietnam from 2009 to 2019. I find that establishing an SEZ significantly reduces local PM2.5 concentration, with the largest reduction concentrated in the first years following establishment and attenuating over the longer term. I also find evidence that SEZs shift local firm composition toward higher-technology manufacturing, but zones focusing on dirtier industries …

Congestion Pricing: A Comprehensive Look At International Congestion Pricing Models And Applying Them To The United States, Ian Ertel

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Urban traffic congestion imposes large costs through wasted time, excess fuel consumption, air pollution, and lost productivity. Although congestion pricing has been recognized as the economically efficient remedy since Pigou and Vickrey, implementation has been rare. This thesis examines the conditions under which congestion pricing succeeds by analyzing three pioneering cases: London, Singapore, and New York City. Across all three, charges reduced traffic volumes and improved speeds within the priced zones. Benefits extended beyond cordon boundaries, with measurable improvements on untolled suburban roads. The distributional effects depended on how revenues were recycled rather than on the charge itself. Political viability, …

Neoliberalism & The Care Economy: Exploring The Gendered Impacts Of Social Protection Systems, Rachel Carruthers

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examines how neoliberal transformation of social protection policy influences gender dynamics within the care economy. Care is necessary for well-being, but traditionally excluded from economic thinking. This thesis completes a historical overview of how care has been incorporated or excluded by different economic paradigms and is anchored in feminist political economy that emphasizes care as a central consideration. A comparative analysis across California, Texas, and Sweden demonstrates how social protection, specifically access to paid parental leave, varies across regimes and results in inconsistent care outcomes. The findings suggest that social protections can reduce some inequalities, but inadequately address …

A Theoretical And Empirical Framework To Estimate The Impact Of Conflict On The Economic Resilience Of Clustered Firms In Ukraine, Alexander D. Ginn

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

In this thesis, I develop a theoretical and empirical framework to estimate whether participation in industrial clusters contributes to firm-level economic resilience to conflict-based shocks. Focusing on Ukraine following the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, the study situates industrial organization and firms’ resilience to conflict within a dynamic environment characterized by spatially heterogeneous exposure to conflict events and persistent institutional constraints. I document how Ukraine’s contemporary economic geography reflects the interaction of Soviet-era industrial path dependence, uneven post-transition institutional development, and conflict-induced reconfiguration, evaluating how these dynamics generate systematic variation in both firms’ baseline vulnerability and their exposure to …

Testing Potential Correlations Between Childhood Lead Exposure And Authoritarianism In Adulthood, Kragen Anderson

University Honors Theses

A significant body of research links lead exposure during childhood to negative effects ranging from increased impulsivity to societal level effects such as an increased likelihood of committing violent crime in adulthood. Due to exposure vectors such as lead water pipes, lead solder, lead based paints, and leaded gasoline there was significant lead exposure during childhood for large portions of the American population. This paper tested and found a statistically significant association between average population level lead exposure in childhood and likelihood of voting for candidate Trump later in life.

The Dictatorial Public Goods Game, Gabriele Camera, Gary Charness, Nir Chemeya, Ro'i Zultan

ESI Working Papers

We propose a novel game, the Dictatorial Public Goods Game, to study the interplay between collective resource generation and centralized provision of public goods. After making choices in a standard Voluntary Contribution Mechanism (VCM), one player is selected from the group to administrate the contributions: either provide the public good or expropriate the collected resources for personal gain. We find that adding this centralized mechanism reduces efficiency compared to the standard VCM. Although higher contributions increase the material incentive to expropriate, they lead to more provision. Thus, pro-social choices in the contribution and in the provision stages act as …

Determinants Of Corporal Punishment And Severe Physical Punishment In Egypt: A Mixed-Methods Analysis For Child Protection Policy, Marwa Moustafa Nassef

Theses and Dissertations

Corporal punishment (CP) and severe physical punishment (SPP) remain a major public health, child rights, and child protection policy concern. In Egypt, despite legislative reforms, survey-weighted analysis of the 2021 Egypt Family Health Survey (EFHS) 2021 (CAPMAS, 2022) reveals prevalence rates of 60.5% for CP and 27.4% for SPP among children aged 1–14 (author’s calculations using EFHS-2021, n=7623), yet evidence distinguishing the determinants of routine corporal punishment from escalation to severe physical punishment remains limited in low- and middle-income contexts. Guided by Bronfenbrenner’s ecological framework, this mixed-methods study identifies key drivers of CP and its escalation to SPP among Egyptian …

The Case For The Exclusion Of Exclusion: Intellectual Property, Masculine Legal Reason, And The Ethics Of Care, Ragya Shoukry

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis argues that current legal ideals of objectivity and neutrality are historically gendered and inseparable from the development of capitalist property relations and imperial expansion. It traces origins that begin with early modern witch hunts and Francis Bacon’s empiricism, where a new “scientific rationality” emerges alongside intensified patriarchal violence. The thesis then examines John Locke’s labour-based justification of property and the figure of the rational individual, showing how this framework legitimizes enclosure, dispossession and colonial appropriation under the guise of improvement and development. Building on this foundation, the analysis turns to moral psychology and how its allegedly universal stage …

Beyond Emergency: Charting Pathways To Sustainable Development In Fragile And Conflict-Affected Settings: A Case Study Of Yemen, Sharif Abdurabu Salem Farid Alsahbool

Theses and Dissertations

For nearly a decade, Yemen's eastern governorates of Hadramawt, Shabwah, and Al‑Mahrah have been relatively stable, yet the international aid system has kept delivering short‑term humanitarian relief like food baskets and water trucking instead of shifting to sustainable development that could rebuild people's lives, create jobs, fix infrastructure, and strengthen local government. This thesis investigates why this transition has taken so long. Based on 21 interviews with government officials, international NGO staff, and local NGO managers in these three governorates, the study develops a new way of understanding the problem. It introduces three ideas: the 'emergency mentality', which is a …

Distance And Trade Elasticity: The Red Sea Crisis As A Natural Experiment, Felix C. Feldman

Economics Undergraduate Senior Theses

This paper exploits the 2023 Houthi attacks on shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the entrance to the Red Sea and the subsequent mass rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope to estimate modern-day elasticities with respect to effective trade cost. This event is unique among chokepoint disruptions as it did not lead to a complete blockage. Instead, many ships voluntarily rerouted away the area, but not all. This paper uses a structural approach to infer unobservable costs incurred by inframarginal Red Sea shippers. This paper combines a reduced-form gravity specification with a discrete route-choice model where ships select …

Unionization Rates And Wage Growth: Trade, Transportation And Utilities, Nathaniel V. Thomas

Binghamton University Undergraduate Journal

This research examines how unionization rates influence wage growth in the United States’ transportation, trade, and utilities sector. Drawing on secondary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the study compares union and non-union wage trends while taking in factors like industry characteristics. By using historical and comparative analyses across multiple industries, it aims to determine if higher union density consistently translates into stronger wage gains. Prior research in both U.S. and international contexts shows that union presence can positively affect wages, but this influence varies by sector, labor strength, and political backdrop

Offsetting Carbon With Lemons: Adverse Selection And Certification In The Voluntary Carbon Market, Vahideh Manshadi, Faidra Monachou, Ilan Morgenstern

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

To meet voluntary climate targets, firms often complement internal decarbonization efforts by purchasing carbon credits in the voluntary carbon market (VCM), which finance projects that reduce emissions elsewhere. However, these emissions reductions are difficult to verify, and growing evidence of overcrediting has cast doubt on the VCM's potential to genuinely offset emissions. We investigate how the VCM's defining features shape its climate effectiveness. Our model captures three central elements: adverse selection, as high-quality projects that truly reduce emissions are costlier yet difficult to distinguish from low-quality ones; imperfect third-party certification, as projects are screened based on a noisy signal of …

Policy Whiplash: Tariffs And Uncertainty Among Firms And Investors In 2025, Boau Lilly Shepherd

Economics Undergraduate Senior Theses

On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a series of reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trading partners, set to be implemented on April 9, 2025, a day he referred to as “Liberation Day”. Although these tariffs were paused almost immediately, they were subsequently renegotiated and revised throughout the summer of 2025. This paper finds evidence that Liberation Day caused a spike in uncertainty among firms and a spike in volatility among investors, while the subsequent summer revisions reduced uncertainty and volatility, despite tariff levels remaining substantially higher than those at the start of the year. These findings suggest that firms …