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Capacity Utilization Paper, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Handwritten notes titled Capacity Utilization, discussing estimation using AIC and SBC (2004-10)

• Handwritten notes titled Time Path of Capital-Capacity Ratio (2005-04-16)

• Handwritten notes with equations related to capital, growth rates, and output (2005)

• Excerpt from a text titled Appendix 1. Principal structural time series components and models, with handwritten notes (2005)

• Handwritten notes discussing Pesaran (1997) and related equations (2005-04-03)

• Handwritten notes discussing cointegration and I(0)/I(1) variables, citing Enders (1995) (2005-02-15)

• Handwritten notes titled Cointegration, discussing ARDL models (2005-04-11)

• Handwritten notes titled Issue, discussing testing procedures for I(0)/I(1) variables and ECM (2005-04-18)

• Handwritten …

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Harrod Policy Paper Corrections, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Email from Paul Davidson discussing the government sector in Shaikh’s Keynes-Harrod model (2005-12-01)

• Email from Neri Salvadori regarding a decision on Shaikh’s submission titled Economic policy in a growth context: A synthesis of Keynes and Harrod, requesting revisions (undated)

• Critical referee report on Shaikh’s submission [Referee report] (undated)

• Referee report by Carlo Panico recommending acceptance with revisions (2006-04-02)

• Notes from Lance Taylor concerning the Harrod/Shaikh paper (2005-12-02)

• Handwritten notes comparing the paradox of thrift and the paradox of growth [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• Excerpt from Kurz, H.-D., & Salvadori, N. (2006). Endogenous growth in a stylised “classical” …

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Profit Shifting And Tax Avoidance: Evidence From Us Multinational Enterprises, Dimitris Giakoulas, Kostas Gemenis, Nikolaos Daskalakis

The Journal of Economics and Politics

In this paper, we investigate tax avoidance of MNEs through profit shifting to tax havens. Using macro data from US MNEs, we analyze at the host country level where US affiliates book their profits and where their actual production activities take place. We find that the effect of the corporate tax on excess profits is conditional on whether the host country is considered to be a tax haven. Among tax haven host countries, a difference of 1% in the corporate tax is associated with a change of 8-15% in excess profits, while the relationship between corporate tax and excess profits …

A Geospatial Approach To Measuring Economic Activity, Anton Yang, Jianwei Ai, Costas Arkolakis

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We introduce a new methodology to detect and measure economic activity using geospatial data and apply it to steel production, a major industrial pollution source worldwide. Combining plant output data with geospatial data, such as ambient air pollutants, nighttime lights, and temperature, we train machine learning models to predict plant locations and output. We identify about 40% (70%) of plants missing from the training sample within a 1 km (5 km) radius and achieve R² above 0.8 for output prediction at a 1 km grid and at the plant level, as well as for both regional and time series …

Polarization And The Decline Of Economic Voting In American National Elections, Christopher Ellis, Joseph Daniel Ura

Working Papers

No abstract provided.

Beyond The Suburban Ideal: Addressing Southern California’S Strained Affordable Housing Market Through Density Bonus Programs, Alissa Larue

School of Public Policy Capstones

This study examines how expanding Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) could serve as an effective policy solution to address the housing affordability crisis. In San Diego, a Bonus Program has been implemented to incentivize the construction of affordable ADUs by relaxing burdensome regulations. A Differences-in-Differences approach using two-way fixed effects is employed to evaluate the program's effectiveness in promoting ADU development, using city-level data from San Diego and Los Angeles counties. ADU permit applications serve as a key indicator of policy impact. The findings strongly suggest that the Bonus Program influenced increasing ADU permit applications in San Diego. Because the model …

The Influence Of Institutional Barriers And Personality On Gendered Occupational Choice, Mia Sideris

Richard T. Schellhase Essay Prize in Ethics

Men hold a disproportionate share of high-paying jobs, leading to an uneven distribution within the workforce. Possible rationalizations behind the formation of the occupational gap can be narrowed down to two factors: institutional barriers and personality differences. Accounts of prestigious organizations intentionally underrepresenting women in academic spheres, in addition to the persistence of societal norms can explain the observed distribution. Other perspectives insist that sex determines one’s behavior in selecting a life-long occupation, where a woman’s instinct to nurture and develop interpersonal connections leads them to choose fields that necessitate these characteristics. Compiling data from mainstream companies like Apple who …

Decarbonization Under Carbon Policy And Pricing Shifts: A Machine Learning-Driven Synthetic Control And Panel Data Analysis, Chanboremey Teng

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This study evaluates the effectiveness of carbon pricing instruments – Carbon taxes and Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) – in reducing CO2 emissions per capita across 152 countries from 1990 to 2023 using dynamic panel regressions with fixed effects. The analysis estimates both short-run and long-run effects while controlling economic structure, energy mix, and environmental policy stringency (EPS). The results show that ETS policies yield the strongest long-term reduction in emissions at approximately 7.35%, followed by carbon taxes at 5.6%, and EPS regulatory measures at 6.35%. However, when all three instruments are modeled together, the marginal effects of pricing mechanisms weaken, …

Essays On Labor And Family Economics, Yutao Wang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation comprises three chapters that investigate the trade-offs between the quantity and quality of children, as well as trade-offs between female labor supply and family formation.

The first chapter investigates how family size shapes child migration in China, where most rural families have at least two children, and nearly 50% of children have migrant parents. We propose a model showing that, conditional on family size, boys and girls are equally likely to migrate with parents to cities. However, in societies with strong son preference, daughters' migration may still be constrained as they tend to have more siblings, and larger …

(Wp 2025-01) Trautwein's Challenge To The History Of Economics, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

Hans-Michael Trautwein’s presidential address to the European Society raised provocative questions regarding the nature of current economics that should concern not just historians of economics but economists as well (Trautwein, 2017). Are the processes driving current research in economics creating a greater and greater specialization in subjects and economic thinking that is fragmenting and disunifying the field? Here I discuss Trautwein’s question and his answer to it particularly as bear on the future status and responsibilities of the history of economics as a field within economics. First, I give an account of what is involved in research specialization in science …

Opioid Treatment Matters: An Analysis Of District Attorney Non-Prosecution, Samuel A. Maloney

Senior Theses

Drug use and drug overdose have become an overriding concern both for civic order and due to the raw death toll from the opioid epidemic. One reform push in the late 2010s/early 2020s, county-level District Attorneys signalling that they would not prose- cute drug use and related crimes, aimed to reduce overdose by reducing criminalization and stigma as a barrier to opioid treatment. At its peak, the policy covered between twenty and thirty million Americans. Using hand-collected data on District Attorney policies and Augmented Synthetic Control for causal identification, I estimate null ef- fects of non-prosecution policies on an urban …

The Use (And Misuse) Of Tariffs In North America: A New Trade War?, Maroula Khraiche, Armando R. Lopez-Velasco, Jean-Baptiste Tondji

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Trade wars may have started. At the time this report was published, the Trump administration had threatened, then paused, a 25 percent tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods. Before the pause, Mexico and Canada were preparing retaliatory tariffs. After the pause, Trump ordered a 25 percent import tax on all steel and aluminum entering the United States to start in March 2025 and announced a plan for tariffs on US trading partners. In this brief, we document the different perspectives and economic consequences of North American trade wars and beyond.

Estimation And Inference In A Possibly Multicointegrated System With A Fixed Number Of Instruments, Yixiao Sun, Peter C. B. Phillips, Igor L. Kheifets

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper shows that the mixed normal asymptotic limit of the trend IV estimator with a fixed number of deterministic instruments (fTIV) holds in both singular (multicointegrated) and nonsingular cointegration systems, thereby relaxing the exogeneity condition in (Phillips and Kheifets, 2024, Theorem 1(ii)). The mixed normality of the limiting distribution of fTIV allows for asymptotically pivotal F and t tests about the cointegration parameters and for simple efficiency comparisons of the estimators for different numbers K of instruments, as well as comparisons with the trend IV estimator when K→∞ with the sample size.

Statistical Inference For Noisy Matrix Completion Incorporating Auxiliary Information, Shujie Ma, Po-Yao Niu, Yichong Zhang, Yinchu Zhu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article investigates statistical inference for noisy matrix completion in a semi-supervised model when auxiliary covariates are available. The model consists of two parts. One part is a low-rank matrix induced by unobserved latent factors; the other part models the effects of the observed covariates through a coefficient matrix which is composed of high-dimensional column vectors. We model the observational pattern of the responses through a logistic regression of the covariates, and allow its probability to go to zero as the sample size increases. We apply an iterative least squares (LS) estimation approach in our considered context. The iterative LS …

Forward Selection Fama-Macbeth Regression With Higher-Order Asset Pricing Factors, Nicola Borri, Denis Chetverikov, Yukun Liu, Aleh Tsyvinski

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We show that the higher-orders and their interactions of the common sparse linear factors can effectively subsume the factor zoo. To this extend, we propose a forward selection Fama-MacBeth procedure as a method to estimate a high-dimensional stochastic discount factor model, isolating the most relevant higher-order factors. Applying this approach to terms derived from six widely used factors (the Fama-French five-factor model and the momentum factor), we show that the resulting higher-order model with only a small number of selected higher-order terms significantly outperforms traditional benchmarks both in-sample and out-of-sample. Moreover, it effectively subsumes a majority of the factors from …

Christian Ethics And Business Leadership, Jon Armajani

The Journal of Social Encounters

This essay discusses the ethical principles of listening, community, stewardship, and interreligious and intercultural understanding with respect to business leadership. It opens by discussing definitions of ethics and their relevance to businesses and business leaders. It continues by providing a description of the consulting company Accenture’s ethical principles and practices, as positive examples. The essay provides Arthur Andersen and its work with Enron and WorldCom, both of which went bankrupt in the early 2000s, as examples of the failures that occur when ethical principles are not practiced. Then, the essay states that Christianity and the Benedictine tradition constitute a basis …

Working Paper: The Role Of Nafeer And Social Networks In Sudan’S Humanitarian Response And The Challenges For International Aid, Mazin Sharfi

The Journal of Social Encounters

This paper explores the integral role of Nafeer, a traditional Sudanese communal practice, and social networks in addressing humanitarian crises, focusing on the ongoing 2023 conflict. Nafeer, rooted in rural agricultural settings, has evolved to mobilise urban communities for emergency responses, while social networks extend social support beyond family ties, providing a complementary layer of resource-sharing. Both systems, decentralised and grassroots in nature, contrast sharply with formal international aid structures. The research highlights how Nafeer and social networks mobilise resources through traditional means, such as mobilising social capital and economic resources including remittances, and modern mechanisms, like crowdfunding. It underscores …

Essays In Development Economics, Karina Gabitova

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates how environmental shocks and early-life health conditions influence child and adolescent development in low- and middle-income countries, using longitudinal data from the Young Lives survey in Ethiopia, India, Peru, and Vietnam. The two chapters address distinct but interrelated dimensions of human capital formation: the effect of environmental shocks on adolescent self-esteem and the causal impact of birth weight on cognitive and non-cognitive outcomes.

Chapter 1 analyzes how shocks such as droughts, floods, and crop failures affect adolescent selfesteem, a key non-cognitive skill linked to long-term well-being. Using a fixed-effects model, the study finds heterogeneous effects: environmental shocks …

A Beautiful Mind Meets Harsh Reality: Practical Tips For Negotiators When Bargaining Strays From Ideal Conditions, Christopher C. Douglas, Ellen Grachek, Allyson Strickland, Marie Waung

Journal of Collective Bargaining in the Academy

Bilateral bargaining theory developed by mathematician and Nobel Laureate John Nash predicts that when both parties have full information, a deal is quickly reached without a strike. Such a situation represents ideal conditions, which the real world does not match. However, Nash Bargaining presents a useful baseline for bargaining teams. We discuss deviations from ideal conditions that bargaining teams are likely to face and tactics for overcoming them with the goal of reaching an agreement while avoiding a strike. This paper’s focus draws from our experience negotiating a contract for non-tenure track faculty across the three University of Michigan campuses, …

Nonstationary Heterogeneous Panels With Multiple Structural Changes, Badi H. Baltagi, Qu Feng, Wei Wang

Center for Policy Research

Nonstationary panels have been widely used in empirical studies in macroeconomics and finance. This paper considers multiple structural changes in nonstationary heterogeneous panels with common factors. Kapetanios, Pesaran, Yamagata (2011) showed that unobserved nonstationary factors can be proxied by cross-sectional averages of observable data. This means that unobserved error factors can be treated as additional regressors, and different break points in slopes and error factor loadings can be considered as multiple breaks in linear regression models with panel data. We generalize the least squares approach by Bai and Perron (1998) to nonstationary panels and show that the break points in …

Working Paper No. 93, The Father, The Son, And The ‘Sulphuric’ Spirit: Reflections Upon Gunnar Myrdal's Early Writings Dealing With J. M. Keynes, Plus The ‘Great Recession’, Niccolo Cellini

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry explores Gunnar Myrdal's contributions to counter-cyclical fiscal policy, emphasizing his belief in accumulating surpluses during economic growth and deploying them during downturns. The first section discusses Myrdal's critique of traditional austerity measures, advocating for transparency in deficit spending and highlighting the psychological impact of fiscal policy. The second section compares Myrdal’s views with John Maynard Keynes’, noting their shared concerns regarding unemployment while emphasizing Myrdal's focus on social equity and institutional reform. The final section applies Myrdal’s framework to the U.S. response to the Great Recession, analyzing the limitations of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) and …

Working Paper No. 90, Social Hierarchies In The Music Industry And Thorstein Veblen's Understanding Of Institutions, Citlactli Carrera López

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that Thorstein Veblen’s understanding of institutions could be used to offer insights into social hierarchies found within the music industry. Institutions, as viewed by Veblen, are structures that are influenced by and extensions of habits that provide an understanding of human behavior. Society creates standards which determine the way that the population operates, setting levels of what is considered as correct and incorrect behaviors. Institutions have a way of altering the way society is governed, setting expectations and new mindsets of how people should interact with each other. Through the introduction of new technologies, these …

Bubble Mitigation Policies: Counterfactual Analysis And Treatment Effect Inference, Ye Chen, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shuping Shi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

To safeguard economic and financial stability policymakers regularly take actions designed to increase resilience to systemic risks and curb speculative market behavior. To assess the effectiveness of such mitigation policies, we introduce a counterfactual approach tailored to accommodate the mildly explosive dynamics that occur during speculative bubbles. We derive asymptotics of the estimated treatment effect under a common factor structure that allows for explosive, I(1), and stationary factors, thereby having applicability to a wide range of prevailing economic conditions. An inferential procedure is proposed for the policy treatment effect that has asymptotic validity and demonstrates satisfactory finite sample performance. An …

Working Paper No. 91, The Emergence Of Industrial ‘Sabotage’ In The Evolution American Health Insurance, H. J.

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry seeks to establish that over the years the American health insurance industry has evolved in the direction of offering more and more disadvantages versus advantages to consumers as holders of insurance policies as well as healthcare products and services. In the tradition of Thorstein Veblen, this tendency should be considered as an institutional evolution that can be traced back in time to its origins in mutual aid societies and lodge practices. With the industrialization of the American economy, the healthcare industry exhibits signs of advancing, and but one indicator of this advance is that insurance plans became formalized. …

Semiparametric Cointegrating Rank Selection For Curved Cross Section Time Series, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Cointegrating rank selection is studied in a function space reduced rank regression where the data are time series of cross section curves. A semiparametric approach to rank selection is employed using information criteria suitably modified to take account of the function space context, extending the linear cointegrating model to accommodate cross section data under general forms of dependence. A parametric formulation is employed analogous to recent work on cross section curve autoregression and cointegrating regression. Consistent cointegrating rank estimation is developed by the use of information criteria methods that are extended to the curve time series environment. The asymptotic theory …

Robust Inference For Time Varying Predictability: A Sieve-Ivx Approach, Nan Liu, Peter C.B. Phillips, Yajie Zhang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Predictive regression models are often used to evaluate the predictive capability of economic fundamentals on bond and equity returns. Inferential procedures in these regressions typically employ parameter constancy or piecewise constancy in slope coefficients. Such formulations are prone to misspecification, more especially during periods of disturbance or evolution in prevailing economic and financial conditions, which can lead to size distortion and spurious evidence of predictability. To address these issues the present work proposes a semiparametric predictive regression model with mixed-root regressors and time-varying coefficients that allow for smooth evolution in the generating mechanism over time. For estimation and inference a …

Are Stock Returns And Output Growth Higher Under Democrats?, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Recent literature suggests that both stock returns and economic growth are significantly higher under Democratic presidential administrations. This is a puzzle in that persistent differences in stock returns seem unlikely in efficient markets, and it is not obvious why Democrats should do better. Often these kinds of results go away upon further analysis or more data, and this appears to be true in the present case. In this paper the sample is extended to 28 administrations, fromWilson-1 through Biden. While the mean stock return under the Democrats is higher, none of the differences in means is significant at conventional significance …

The Theoretical Consequences Of Mr. Churchill Gold Standard Policy And The ‘Long Struggle Of Escape’, Nathaniel Cline, Matias Vernengo

Working Papers

No abstract provided.

The Market Value Of Partisan Balance, Brian D. Feinstein, Daniel J. Hemel

Northwestern University Law Review

For the past century, Delaware’s constitution has provided that no more than a bare majority of judges on the state’s courts may hail from the same political party. Some scholars and jurists theorize that Delaware’s commitment to a politically balanced judiciary increases the state’s attractiveness to out-of-state corporations and adds value to Delaware-chartered firms. These claims echo a larger literature in law and the social sciences positing that ideological diversity improves decisional quality. Recently, a series of federal court decisions in the case of Adams v. Carney put these claims to the test. In December 2017, a federal district court …

Strategies U.S. Hospital Leaders Use To Recruit, Hire, And Retain Physicians To Sustain Profitability, Terence Christopher Williams

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

Poor physician retention negatively impacts the quality of community healthcare, leading to financial losses and increased operational costs for hospitals. Hospital administrators and the governing boards are particularly concerned with addressing this issue to ensure sustainable healthcare delivery. Grounded in the Hertzberg’s two factor theory, the purpose of this qualitative pragmatic inquiry was to explore strategies that hospital administrators can utilize to improve physician retention. The participants included eight high-ranking hospital administrators within the geographic region of North Carolina who had an active role in provider retention. Data was collected using semistructured interviews, identify five critical themes: (a) implement mentorship, …