Digital Commons Network^™

Robust Implementation In Rationalizable Strategies In General Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran

Research Collection School Of Economics

A social choice function (SCF) is robustly implementable in rationalizable strate-gies if every rationalizable strategy profile on every type space results in outcomes consistent with it. First, we establish an equivalence between robust implementation in rationalizable strategies and “weak rationalizable implementation”. Second, using the equivalence result, we identify weak robust monotonicity as a necessary and al-most sufficient condition for robust implementation in rationalizable strategies. This exhibits a contrast with robust implementation in interim equilibria, i.e., every equilib-rium on every type space achieves outcomes consistent with the SCF. Bergemann and Morris (2011) show that strict robust monotonicity is a necessary and …

Determinants Of Containership Time Charter Rates : A Hedonic Pricing Approach, Khusnul Khotimah, Thi Thu Ha Doan

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Gmm Estimation With Brownian Kernels Applied To Income Inequality Measurement, Jin Seo Cho, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

In GMM estimation, it is well known that if the moment dimension grows with the sample size, the asymptotics of GMM differ from the standard finite dimensional case. The present work examines the asymptotic properties of infinite dimensional GMM estimation when the weight matrix is formed by inverting Brownian motion or Brownian bridge covariance kernels. These kernels arise in econometric work such as minimum Cramér–von Mises distance estimation when testing distributional specification. The properties of GMM estimation are studied under different environments where the moment conditions converge to a smooth Gaussian or non-differentiable Gaussian process. Conditions are also developed for …

Understanding Michigan’S Reconnect Program Applicants, Alexander W. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Brian Jacob, Kevin M. Stange, Bryan A. Stuart, Zhonghan Xie

Reports

No abstract provided.

Final Offer Arbitration With Asymmetric Evidence, Yongjoon Kim, Afia Promi, Jiatong Xue, Cary Deck

ESI Working Papers

As disputants increasingly rely upon arbitration it is critical to understand outcomes that are likely to arise from mechanisms like final offer arbitration. While a sizable experimental literature investigating strategic behavior in final offer arbitration exists, that work has overwhelmingly focused on situations where the arbitrator’s beliefs about the appropriate resolution are symmetric and uninfluenced by the disputants’ cases. This paper considers a setting where the arbitrator’s beliefs depend on the strength of each disputant’s case. We find disputant responses to changes in the relative strength of their case generally follow comparative statics predictions. Further, we find that final offers …

Justifying The Opposite: A Pedagogical Reminder For Those Teaching Financial Ratio Analysis, William H. Sackley, Roger T. King

Journal of Economics and Finance Education

Although introductory finance texts may be clear and instructors may be thorough, students often exhibit an extremely superficial understanding of financial ratio analysis upon leaving their introductory classes. We find that students’ understanding can be enhanced by requiring them to justify why the opposite of their initial impression of a financial ratio may be correct. Thus, students – or other analysts – may be too quick to judge whether the value of a particular financial ratio is “good” or “bad.” This approach requires little additional classroom time, yet seems to create a better understanding of the interrelated financial variables comprising …

Understanding Rice Production Stagnation In The Philippines: Regional Evidence And Development Implications, Henry Bartelet, Alenn Jhulia D. Prodigalidad, Janelle S. Dy, Jan Gabriel N. Manzano

Quantitative Methods and Information Technology Faculty Publications

Despite decades of investment in agricultural research and rice development, the Philippines continues to face stagnation in domestic rice production. This persistent trend, occurring despite a sizable arable land base and large rural workforce, has contributed to the country’s growing reliance on rice imports to meet national food needs. In response, the government has implemented a tariff-based import system designed to fund domestic productivity improvements. While previous studies have explored the technical and environmental constraints affecting rice production, such as irrigation shortfalls, land degradation, and climate variability, few have examined recent national trends using regionally disaggregated data alongside qualitative insights. …

Slim: Stochastic Learning And Inference In Overidentified Models, Xiaohong Chen, Min Seong Kim, Sokbae Lee, Myung Hwan Seo, Myunghyun Song

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose SLIM (Stochastic Learning and Inference in overidentified Models), a scalable stochastic approximation framework for nonlinear GMM. SLIM forms iterative updates from independent mini-batches of moments and their derivatives, producing unbiased directions that ensure almost-sure convergence. It requires neither a consistent initial estimator nor global convexity and accommodates both fixed-sample and random-sampling asymptotics. We further develop an optional second-order refinement and inference procedures based on random scaling and plug-in methods, including plug-in, debiased plug-in, and online versions of the Sargan–Hansen J-test tailored to stochastic learning. In Monte Carlo experiments based on a nonlinear EASI demand system with 576 moment …

Just Cause Protection Under Manager Discrimination, Joseph Pickens, Aaron Sojourner

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

“Just cause” policies aim to discourage the arbitrary firing of employees. Recent efforts at passing such laws in the U.S. have been motivated by deterring discrimination. This paper presents a framework to study the effects of just cause when managers engage in taste-based discrimination. The framework generates predictions on whether just cause will ease achievement and retention of stable employment by exploiting the timing of separations around a probationary period. Since probationary periods are a typical feature of protections, the approach is generalizable. We test predictions using New York City’s 2021 just cause law for fast-food employees. Using a synthetic …

If We Tear It Down, We Might Build You A New One: The Troublesome Use Of Eminent Domain And Urban Neighborhood Swimming Pools, Steven N. Waller Ph.D., James H. Bemiller

International Journal of Aquatic Research and Education

Public swimming pools are a vital part of America’s recreation and sport culture since the early 1900’s. Municipal swimming pools were initially built to provide recreation and hygiene to urban communities, regardless of race or class. However, a complex history of segregation, civil unrest, suburbanization, and funding challenges has resulted in a significant decline in public pools, depriving many communities of vital recreational spaces. In many communities, options for sustaining the operation of swimming pools have resulted in pool closures. Unfortunately, once swimming pools close, especially those in aging neighborhoods in central city areas, they are seldom resurrected. They quickly …

Learning About Stability Of Risk Preferences, Levon Barseghyan, Francesca Molinari, Joshua C. Teitelbaum

Georgetown Law Faculty Publications and Other Works

Classical theories posit that risk preferences are stable across decision contexts. Two branches of empirical literature assess this claim. Structural approaches examine within-person consistency of model-based estimates of risk aversion, while “model-free” approaches examine within-person correlations of risky choices. We elucidate the latent structure underlying the model-free approach. Using this structure, we develop a new approach to assessing preference stability that has stronger testable implications, and we partially identify features of stability and heterogeneity of risk preferences. Our study illustrates a general principle: partial identification through minimal assumptions grounded in economic theory robustly bridges fully structural and model-free methods.

Heteroskedastic Ordered Probit Models With An Artificial Neural Network For Predicting Potential Consumer Ratings On Amazon Software Reviews, Jikhan Jeong

Economics Faculty Research & Creative Works

The ordered probit model is widely used to make inferences about ordinal dependent variables in the social sciences, while neural network models have proven effective for classification tasks across various domains. Although other scholars have proposed ordinal classification models using neural networks, empirical studies combining ordered probit models with neural networks remain limited. To date, no studies have examined ordered probit models with neural networks under the assumption of heteroskedasticity. Accordingly, this paper demonstrates the predictive performance of an ordered probit model with an artificial neural network (OPANN) using different activation functions. In addition, it introduces a newly developed heteroskedastic …

Climate Shocks And State Formation: The 1970 Bhola Cyclone And The Birth Of Bangladesh, Sultan Mehmood, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Discussion Papers

State formation through secession often requires two critical steps: building mass support for independence, and engaging in violent conflict against a state resisting territorial loss. Combining satellite data with archival sources, we statistically document how exposure to the 1970 Bhola cyclone in East Pakistan which killed 350,000 people led to a rise in separatist sentiments expressed in voting booths, and later induced citizens to take up arms against the government and engage in guerrilla warfare. We identify the cyclone as a focal point that helped galvanize dispersed separatist sentiments into an organized political movement and war, in part by revealing …

The Effect Of Renewable Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, And Energy Use On Co₂ Emissions In Indonesia: An Ardl Analysis, Raihan Ahmad Mustofa, Mariam Kamila, Rininta Nurrachmi, Syifa Shafnastiara

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Abstract This study examines the dynamic relationship between renewable energy consumption, total energy use, economic growth, and CO₂ emissions in Indonesia over the period 1990–2021 using an ARDL approach. The results show a stable long-run relationship with quick adjustment after shocks. In the long run, energy consumption is associated with higher CO₂ emissions, reflecting the continued dominance of fossil fuels. Renewable energy helps reduce emissions in the short term, but its long-term impact remains statistically insignificant. GDP does not show a significant effect, suggesting that meaningful decarbonization will require a more intensive shift in the energy mix.

Keywords: ARDL, renewable …

Safely Exploring Novel Actions In Recommender Systems Via Deployment-Efficient Policy Learning, Haruka Kiyohara, Yusuke Narita, Yuta Saito, Kei Tateno, Takuma Udagawa

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In many real recommender systems, novel items are added frequently over time. The importance of sufficiently presenting novel actions has widely been acknowledged for improving long-term user engagement. A recent work builds on Off-Policy Learning (OPL), which trains a policy from only logged data, however, the existing methods can be unsafe in the presence of novel actions. Our goal is to develop a framework to enforce exploration of novel actions with a guarantee for safety. To this end, we first develop Safe Off-Policy Policy Gradient (Safe OPG), which is a model-free safe OPL method based on a high confidence off-policy …

Testing Fractional Inflation Persistence In The West African Monetary Zone, Afees A. Salisu, Nuruddeen Usman, Godday Uwawunkonye Ebuh

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

Understanding inflation persistence is of utmost significance for monetary policymakers in an era of heightened global economic interdependence and increased susceptibility to external shocks. Thus, this study examines the dynamics of inflation within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), employing both conventional and innovative econometric methods, notably Fractional integration and Fractionally Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive (FCVAR) models. Our analysis reveals a compelling paradox in the persistence of inflation. Conventional methodologies suggest a robust inertia with high persistence levels nearing unity. Conversely, Fractional Integration paints a more intricate portrait, indicating a dynamic, less persistent behavior with persistence values notably below 0.5. Crucially, …

Independence Of Central Banks In Nondemocratic Regimes: Implications For Price Stability, Abeeb O. Olaniran, Umar B. Ndako

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study examines the impact of central bank independence on inflation in nondemocratic regimes, with a specific focus on the differences between Islamic and nonIslamic groups. It utilizes nonstationary heterogeneous panels to estimate both the longrun and short-run responses of inflation to central bank independence. Additionally, it employs a panel smooth transition regression model to identify any potential threshold effects in this relationship. Our findings reveal an inverse relationship between central bank independence and inflation rates for both groups in the long run. Our result suggests that non-Islamic authoritarian countries may struggle more than Islamic ones to maintain price stability …

Early Warning Models For Anticipating Crisis: Insights From Sri Lanka, K P Prabheesh, Vishuddhi Jayawickrema

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

The study investigates how well early warning systems can predict currency crises in Sri Lanka, with special attention given to deviations in credit and business cycles as potential indicators. The research incorporates domestic and international factors, as well as credit and business cycle indicators, to anticipate currency crises. It uses multiple approaches such as exchange rate pressure index for crisis identification, signalling approach and logit regression for examining the predictive capacity of the indicators. Using quarterly data from 1997 to 2022, the study identifies seven crisis events in the country. Our empirical findings show that before the currency crises, credit …

Teaching Inquiry: A Guiding Template Fosters Critical Thinking, Barbara D. O'Donnell, Abigail C. Schwent

The Councilor: A National Journal of the Social Studies

This article provides a supportive way to address the marginalization of social studies by teaching inquiry through the use of a template. Inquiry based learning encourages students to make real-world connections by engaging in problem solving and exploration through research. It fosters higher level skills like critical thinking, evaluation, and synthesis of knowledge through experiential learning (Bell, Urhahne, Schanze and Ploetzner 2009). Using inquiry to investigate social studies topics encourages the use of sources from diverse perspectives to understand the complete picture of the event being researched. Teaching social studies through inquiry is a daunting task due to multiple obstacles …

4 Of 4: Impact Of Policy And Technological Factors On Ai Innovation And Investment: The 2b Model Service Industry, Siyuan Ma, Mengyu Wang, Tianyi Zhang

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

This case explores AI investment opportunities in 2B model services, particularly in sectors that intrinsically benefit from the reduction in human error. We will analyse applications in the legal industry as an example of overarching 2B model service trends.

Orthostatic Hypotension In Older Adults And Its Economic Impact On The Healthcare System: A Systematic Literature Review, Olushola E. Ilogho, Jennifer Broyles, Viet Le, Denise Rizzolo

Lynchburg Journal of Medical Science

ABSTRACT

Orthostatic Hypotension (OH) has been shown to lead to poor quality of life, falls, and death. Literature suggests that falls from OH may be preventable, therefore opportunities to reduce its associated cost to the healthcare system exist. This literature review aims to evaluate the importance of diagnosing and treating OH in older adult patients. OH is the drop in blood pressure upon changing to an upright position. This acute hemodynamic drop in blood pressure causes hypoperfusion in the brain, leading to dizziness, syncope, and falls. An extensive literature search for publications in PubMed and Cumulative Index in Nursing and …

Anti-Union Regulation And The Opioid Crisis, Kelly Chen, Samia Islam

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Existing literature provides ample evidence of the detrimental impact of de-unionization on various determinants of individual health. However, there is a lack of direct empirical research linking de-unionization to objective health outcomes. By leveraging the differential timing of Right-to-Work law implementation across four states in the United States, we quantify the role of union presence in opioid misuse. Using a synthetic control method, our analysis reveals a persistent decline in unionization rates in the affected states within 4-6 years of RTW enactment. This reduction precipitated a considerable increase in both nonfatal and fatal overdoses, as measured by opioid-related treatment admissions …

Technical Appendix: Analysis Of Innovation Applications And Value Driven By Aigc Technology—An Early Investment Perspective In The Chinese Market, Siyuan Ma, Mengyu Wang, Tianyi Zhang

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Following the introduction of generative AI/AIGC concepts and applications, it is necessary to clarify two related technical concepts: machine vision (CV) and convolutional neural networks (CNN). Computer Vision (CV) is a discipline that studies how to convert inputs such as images, sounds, and videos into a language that computers can understand. Taking 2D images as an example, all images can be broken down into very small pixels, each of which can be converted into a number (based on grayscale) or a combination of numbers. The number represented by each pixel is the feature of that pixel, and combining these numbers …

Do Financial Concerns Make Workers Less Productive?, Dua Khowaja

2025 Fall Honors Capstones Projects - Archive

Financial stress does not just affect people’s finances; it can change the way individuals behave. This project asks whether short-term financial difficulty damages worker performance or if alleviating it improves focus and accuracy. Using data from a field experiment in rural India, this study examine how labor payment timing variability is related to workers' productivity and error rates. The study randomized payment dates across a sample of employees, so that employees paid early can be compared to employees paid on standard or later dates. It investigates whether subsidy of payments relieves stress and enhances task performance by minimizing stress, enhancing …

Edgeworth Expansions In Curved Cross Section Autoregression, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Edgeworth expansions are developed for the finite sample distribution of the least squares estimator in a time series parametric first order autoregression with Hilbert space curves of cross section data. The main result extends to this functional data environment the Edgeworth expansion in the corresponding scalar time series AR(1). In doing so, the results show how function-valued cross section data, and hence general forms of cross section dependence, affect the finite sample distribution of the serial correlation coefficient. Autoregressions with functional fixed effect intercepts are included and the results therefore relate to dynamic panel autoregression with individual effects. The primary …

Message In A Bottleneck: Supply Chain Disruptions And Manufacturing Output In The United States, Raja N. Kali, Gu K. Jingping, Erica J. Neuyou

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We examine the effect of container shipping disruptions on US manufacturing output before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. We augment maritime trade with a global production network model, where the reliability of container logistics is critical for the on-time and full availability of inputs and the delivery of output to foreign markets. We combine a US container shipping reliability dataset with input-output and trade data to construct a novel supply chain disruption index that captures the integration of upstream and downstream linkages of the US manufacturing sector into the global supply chain. Our findings suggest that a one-unit shock leads …

Eco 4000 – Statistical Analysis For Economics And Finance [Syllabus], Dmytro Dushko

Open Educational Resources

The course introduces econometric techniques that are useful for conducting empirical analyses in economics and finance. Its purpose is to enable students to master these concepts and successfully complete an independent empirical project. The course will be structured into three roughly equal parts: the first part will cover probability and sets, providing a foundation for statistical reasoning; the second part will focus on statistics, delving into quantitative methods for analyzing economic data; and the third part will introduce econometrics, emphasizing linear models that establish relationships between two or more variables of interest. We will explore linear models from both theoretical …

Weak Identification Of Long Memory With Implications For Volatility Modeling;, Jia Li, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper explores implications of weak identification in common ‘long memory’ and recent ‘rough’ approaches to modeling volatility dynamics of financial assets. We unveil an asymptotic near-observational equivalence between a long memory model with weak autoregressive dynamics and a rough model with a near-unit autoregressive root. Standard methods struggle to distinguish them, and conventional asymptotics are invalid. We propose an identification-robust approach to construct confidence sets that reveal the uncertainty and aid inference. Empirical studies based on realized volatility and trading volume often fail to statistically reject either model, thereby providing evidence of their potential coexistence.

Unpacking Singapore's Leasehold Relativity Table: An Empirical And Legal Analysis, Koon Shing Kwong, Jing Rong Goh, Seng Wei, Edward Ti

Research Collection School Of Economics

In Singapore, most land is state-owned, with the state generally issuing leasehold estates via state leases of not more than 99 years1, depending on the intended land use. Naturally, the value of a leasehold estate, which erodes over time as the lease approaches the end of its term, is a key component of the premium charged for lease renewals, or the tax imposed for permission given in relation to a development that would increase the value of the land. By law, the state valuation of leasehold land is prescribed by a leasehold relativity table colloquially known as ‘Bala’s Curve’ or …

The Impact Of Stocks Traded In The Iraq Stock Exchange On Bank Credit Rates For The Period 2008–2023, Waleed Ashour Khalid

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

Trading volumes are one of the most important indicators of liquidity in financial markets. Although the Iraqi banking system has experienced liquidity turmoil since 2003, this has led to a significant decline in the stock market. This study aims to investigate the impact of trading volumes on bank credit in the Iraq Stock Exchange. Based on a sample of 60 companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange and 18 banks, the study spanned a 15-year period, from 2008 to 2023. Using the least squares method, we demonstrated the relationship between the liquidity of stocks traded in Iraqi financial markets and …