Digital Commons Network^™

Reasoning On Time-Series For Financial Technical Analysis, Kelvin J. L. Koa, Jan Chen, Yunshan Ma, Huanhuan Zheng, Tat-Seng Chua

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

While Large Language Models have been used to produce interpretable stock forecasts, they mainly focus on analyzing textual reports but not historical price data, also known as Technical Analysis. This task is challenging as it switches between domains: the stock price inputs and outputs lie in the time-series domain, while the reasoning step should be in natural language. In this work, we introduce Verbal Technical Analysis (VTA), a novel framework that combine verbal and latent reasoning to produce stock time-series forecasts that are both accurate and interpretable. To reason over time-series, we convert stock price data into textual annotations and …

The Roles Of The Human Resources Management Director And Their Impact On Entrepreneurial Training:An Analytical Study At The Ministry Of Labor And Social Affairs, Ali Abd Al-Salam Abd Al-Daem

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

The research problem lies in the weak level of entrepreneurial training in Iraqi ministries despite the importance of the strategic roles of human resources management. The research gap is represented by the scarcity of empirical studies that measure the relative impact of the roles of the HR manager (according to Ulrich’s model) in activating entrepreneurial training within the Iraqi public sector environment. Accordingly, this study aims to analyze the relationship between the roles of the Human Resources Management Director—as a strategic partner, administrative expert, developmental supporter, and change agent—and their impact on activating entrepreneurial training at the Ministry of Labor …

Digital Financial Innovation, Currency Outside Banking System, And Inflationary Rate In Nigeria: Implications For Exchange Rate Management, Philip Ifeakachukwu Nwosa

Bullion

Digital financial innovation has expanded globally, supporting cashless systems and reducing currency outside banks and inflation in advanced economies. In Nigeria, however, rising use of digital payment platforms has coincided with increasing inflation and higher cash in circulation. This study explores the relationship among digital financial innovation, currency outside the banking system, and inflation from 2009 to 2024, while assessing implications for exchange rate management. Findings show that despite rapid digital payment growth, both inflation and cash outside banks remain elevated, creating challenges for effective exchange rate stability. The study adopts a descriptive research design to examine the relationship among …

Essays On Empirical Search And Matching, Jiangheng Lin

Arts & Sciences Graduate Student Theses and Dissertations

The Role of Wait Time Disclosures in Public Housing: Evidence from Seattle: This paper studies how providing wait time information affects applicant choices and allocation outcomes in a public housing allocation mechanism, where applicants choose their preferred communities and receive housing units on a first-come, first-served basis. Under such a mechanism, applicants' choices depend on their preferences and subjective beliefs about expected wait times for each community. Using administrative data from the Seattle Housing Authority, I study the effect of its disclosure of Historical Wait Time (HWT) information, which is provided as a discrete HWT signal for each community, such …

Blockchain Technology As A Tool To Enhance Information Security Elements In The Government Organizations Sector: An Exploratory Study In The Nineveh Governorate Traffic Directorate, Saif Khalid Zakaria

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

Purpose: The objective of this study is oriented to investigate what are the determinant features of Blockchain Technology (BCT) that contribute in boosting ISE factors in governmental institutions. The research work is grounded on referring to the most popular features of Blockchain (BC) in enhancing the core and supportive (ISE). Research Design/ Methods and approach: The data for this research was based on a crosssectional and correlational survey (95 responses were finally analyzed). The collected data were first analyzed using SPSS v.26 and then through variance based structural equation modeling (SEM; Smart PLS v.4) for assessing validity and …

Measuring Market Risk Through Entropic Var, Dragomir Nedeltchev, Tsvetelin Zaevski

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

The article aims to measure the market risk beyond the basic risk measures like the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES). The Entropic Value-at-Risk is selected among the available measures based on its advantages -- it is the coherent upper bound of the VaR and ES. This risk measure is applied to the classical Black-Scholes model as well as to some more realistic ones, such as the exponential tempered stable model (the log-returns are presented by a tempered stable L\'evy process), the stochastic volatility model of Heston, its jump extension of Bates, and another stochastic volatility model but with …

The Writing On The Wall: The Rise Of Applied Ai And The Life-Or-Death Choice Every Ceo Must Make Now, Gary Sheng, Ron Roberts

Digital Laboratory: Publisher of Internet Journal

Applied AI is putting AI to its highest and best use: running your organization as autonomously as possible so you can deliver value for humanity while maximizing the scale of the value. The economy is splitting. Organizations that adopt applied AI are expanding their capacity, accelerating their impact, and pulling ahead. Those that don't are quietly becoming irrelevant, not because they're doing bad work, but because the gap between what they can do and what the moment requires is widening every day. This is not a technology question. It is a leadership question. This paper is written for organizational leaders, …

Restricting Academic Dishonesty At A Japanese University, Joel Weinberg

Japanese Society and Culture

This research explores three approaches to handling academic dishonesty: punitive, preventive, and positive. First, the history of cheating and the punitive approach is briefly discussed. Next, research results of a preventive approach that was used at a Japanese university are given. During this research, three surveys were conducted to gauge students’ opinions about cheating, to account for the methods, and to measure the prevalence of cheating on post-reading quizzes. The survey results show that at least eleven types of cheating on post-reading quizzes were used and that non-cheating students were concerned about this issue. As a result of the surveys, …

Employment Contracts, Working Time, And The Well-Being Of Schoolteachers In Japan, Haojun Gong, Shinpei Sano

Japanese Society and Culture

This paper quantitatively analyzes trends in the working hours of schoolteachers in Japan using Teaching and Learning International Survey (TALIS) data from three survey waves. The analysis focuses on differences between fixed-term and permanent employment contracts and on school environment variables, and their relationships with working hours and teacher well-being. Teachers on permanent contracts tend, on average, to work longer hours than those on fixed-term contracts, largely because of greater time spent on administrative duties and extracurricular activities. School environmental characteristics and principal leadership show only weak statistical associations with total working hours. Subjective job satisfaction is lower, and workload …

Exploring The Definition Of Child Poverty : For Consideration Of Legal Policy, Kazuko Ikeya, Fumie Adachi, Kazutoshi Imade

Japanese Society and Culture

We explore the definition of child poverty for consideration of legal policy.

Survey of the actual situation in local governments and private organizations concerning child poverty.

① Some parents don’t know how to prioritize their spending, and there are cases where parents don’t provide for their children.

② This cannot be addressed only with financial investment.

It is inappropriate to define child poverty only by low household income. It should also be

defined as whether children are being provided for through their development.

U.S. Foreign Aid’S Effects On Un Voting Patterns From Years 2017-2023, Brody Young

Undergraduate Theses

This is a study of the relationship between U.S. Foreign Aid and its effects on a receiving nation’s voting coincidence, with voting coincidence measuring how often a nation votes the same as the U.S. in the UN General Assembly. In this study the dependent variable is voting coincidence in the UN General Assembly. The primary independent variable is the average amount of foreign aid UN nations have received from the U.S. in 2017-2023. With several other more minor independent variables including average GDP of nations from 2017-2023, the average population of a nation from 2017-2023, whether a nation is a …

Identifying Common Trend Determinants In Panel Data, Yoonseok Lee, Peter C. Phillips, Suyong Song, Donggyu Sul

Center for Policy Research

This paper develops a novel method for identifying observable determinants of latent common trends in nonstationary panel data, which are typically removed or controlled in two-way fixed effects regressions. By examining cross sectional dispersion processes, we assess whether panel series exhibit distributional convergence toward specific observed time series, revealing them as long run determinants of the underlying latent trend. The approach also offers a new perspective on cointegration between time series and panel data, focusing on the relative variation of the panel data with respect to the cointegration error. Applying this method to U.S. state-level crime rates demonstrates that the …

Black Swans And Financial Stability: A Framework For Building Resilience, Daniel J. Barth, Stacey L. Schreft

Journal of Financial Crises

This article refines the concept of black swans, typically described as highly unlikely and catastrophic events, to be internally consistent. It explores features of the financial system that prevent the eradication of black swans. The main implication is the need to enhance the financial system’s resilience to withstand unforeseen events rather than focus on past crises. The article introduces a “resilience principle” for designing official-sector policies that can achieve such goals. The principle calls for policies that are adaptable, universal, and systemic. The article provides examples of policies with these features, assuming that the official sector is not better positioned …

The Irrelevance Of Filing Speed: Evidence From A Regulatory Reporting Discontinuity, Bryson Mumford

Undergraduate Honors Theses

Does faster financial reporting increase firm value? I exploit the $700 million public float threshold in SEC Rule 12b-2, which imposes a 60-day Form 10-K filing deadline for large accelerated filers relative to 75 days for accelerated filers. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, I show that crossing the threshold sharply increases the likelihood of Large Accelerated Filer status and reduces filing lags by approximately one week, with no evidence of concurrent changes in mandated audit quality. Despite this exogenous acceleration in information disclosure, I fail to reject the null hypothesis that there are no effects on firm valuation (Tobin’s …

Segmentation And Morphometry Of Intracranial Internal Carotid Artery Calcification In Relation To Brain Atrophy, Xiao Xu, Nikhil N. Chaudhari, Phoebe E. Imms, Nahian F. Chowdhury, Fangyun C. Liu, Jorge A. Solis Galvan, Bavrina Bigjahan, Grant Schleifer, Maria Ashna, Blake Hannagan, Giuseppe Barisano, Daniel K. Cummings, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Paul L. Hooper, Edmond Seabright, Randall C. Thompson, Benjamin C. Trumble, Michael D. Gurven, Jonathan Stieglitz, Caleb E. Finch, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Helena C. Chui, Margaret Gatz, Wendy J. Mack, Hillard Kaplan, Andrei Irimia

ESI Publications

Purpose

Intracranial internal carotid artery calcification (iICAC) is a form of intracranial arteriosclerosis and is associated with an elevated risk of stroke and dementia. However, iICAC’s relationship with brain atrophy remains poorly understood. We aimed to automatically quantify iICAC morphometric characteristics and evaluate their associations with regional brain volumes (BVs).

Methods

We developed an automated approach to compute iICAC surface area and thickness from CT brain scans in a sample of physically active South American subsistence farmers (n = 1,232, age range: 40 years to 92 years, 48.1% female, 794 Tsimane and 438 Moseten). Linear regression models were used …

Cost-Effectiveness Of Blood-Based Fibrosis Screening In High-Risk Metabolic Liver Diseases With Emerging Therapies, Wanyi Chen, Stephanie T. Chang, Ramsey C. Cheung, Donald B. Chalfin, Kinpritma Sangha, Szu-Yu Zoe Kao, Artem T. Boltyenkov

College of Population Health Faculty Papers

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) remains a global public health threat. With emerging effective pharmacologic therapies, early identification of significant fibrosis in primary care is critical. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of blood-based noninvasive tests incorporating real-world diagnostic performance in the contemporary MASLD treatment era.

METHODS: We developed a decision-analytic model for MASLD natural history and treatment to compare 6 noninvasive test strategies using Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and/or enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) tests at varying cutoffs. Patients identified with significant fibrosis were referred for hepatology staging (biopsy and/or imaging-based), and eligible individuals were considered for Resmetirom ($47,400/y; mean …

Time Invariant Variables In The Mundlak And Hausman-Taylor Panel Data Models, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper shows that the classic augmented Mundlak (1978) regression yields the between estimator for time-invariant variables. It is well known that the estimates of the time varying variables yield the fixed effects estimates. While the latter are consistent for this correlated random effects model, the between estimates are not. The between estimator is consistent only when the Hausman (1978) test does not reject the null based on between versus fixed effects. An alternative modified Hausman and Taylor (1981) estimator is proposed. Monte Carlo experiments are performed to compare various estimators under a correlated random effects as well as a …

From Farm To Fork, And Beyond: The International Politics Of Food Standards, Julia E. Srnec

The Downtown Review: An Interdisciplinary Journal Written and Peer-Reviewed by Mandel Honors College Students at Cleveland State University

Food safety standards are incredibly politically charged due to how much they can differ between countries and how implementing new standards in a country can impact the economy of those depending on the exports of food products. The political division regarding food safety standards can begin to be understood once the impacts on national and international economics, as well as the consequences of regulations beyond the economy, are considered. Nongovernmental organizations such as the World Health Organization help to mitigate conflict over trade policy disagreements, however some divisions persist.The use of non-tariff barriers on the imports of food-related goods can …

Delegation And Verification Under Ai, Lingxiao Huang, Wenyang Xiao, Nisheeth K. Vishnoi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

As AI systems enter institutional workflows, workers must decide whether to delegate task execution to AI and how much effort to invest in verifying AI outputs, while institutions evaluate workers using outcome-based standards that may misalign with workers’ private costs. We model delegation and verification as the solution to a rational worker’s optimization problem, and define worker quality by evaluating an institution-centered utility (distinct from the worker’s objective) at the resulting optimal action. We formally characterize optimal worker workflows and show that AI induces phase transitions, where arbitrarily small differences in verification ability lead to sharply different behaviors. As a …

Triple/Double-Debiased Lasso, Denis Chetverikov, Joseph R.V. Sørensen, Aleh Tsyvinski

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In this paper, we propose a triple (or double-debiased) Lasso estimator for inference on a low-dimensional parameter in high-dimensional linear regression models. The estimator is based on a moment function that satisfies not only first- but also second-order Neyman orthogonality conditions, thereby eliminating both the leading bias and the second-order bias induced by regularization. We derive an asymptotic linear representation for the proposed estimator and show that its remainder terms are never larger and are often smaller in order than those in the corresponding asymptotic linear representation for the standard double Lasso estimator. Because of this improvement, the triple Lasso …

First Proof Solutions And Comments, Mohammed Abouzaid, Andrew J. Blumberg, Martin Hairer, Joe Kileel, Tamara G. Kolda, Paul D. Nelson, Daniel Spielman, Nikhil Srivastava, Rachel Ward, Shmuel Weinberger, Lauren Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Here we provide our solutions to the First Proof questions. We also discuss the best responses from publicly available AI systems that we were able to obtain in our experiments prior to the release of the problems on February 5, 2025. We hope this discussion will help readers with the relevant domain expertise to assess such responses.

The Changing Landscape Of International Development: An Introduction, Pascaline Dupas, Pinelopi K. Goldberg, Rohini Pande

Discussion Papers

Since the late 1980s, extreme poverty has declined sharply, life expectancy and schooling have increased, and electoral democracy has expanded. However poverty reduction has slowed in recent years, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, amid intensifying conflict, fragility, climate risks, democratic backsliding, and the erosion of global trends—including trade integration and geopolitical stability—that once supported growth. These dynamics raise three interrelated questions: what barriers impede further progress; where will future growth in lower-income countries come from; and how can growth be broadly shared. Taking stock of 15 chapters forthcoming in Volume 6 of the Handbook of Development Economics, we discuss how …

The Changing Landscape Of International Development: An Introduction, Pascaline Dupas, Pinelopi Goldberg, Rohini Pande

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Since the late 1980s, extreme poverty has declined sharply, life expectancy and schooling have increased, and electoral democracy has expanded. However poverty reduction has slowed in recent years, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, amid intensifying conflict, fragility, climate risks, democratic backsliding, and the erosion of global trends—including trade integration and geopolitical stability—that once supported growth. These dynamics raise three interrelated questions: what barriers impede further progress; where will future growth in lower-income countries come from; and how can growth be broadly shared. Taking stock of 15 chapters forthcoming in Volume 6 of the Handbook of Development Economics, we discuss how …

Identifying Common Trend Determinants In Panel Data, Yoonseok Lee, Peter C.B. Phillips, Suyong Song, Donggyu Sul

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper develops a novel method for identifying observable determinants of latent common trends in nonstationary panel data, which are typically removed or controlled in two-way fixed effects regressions. By examining cross sectional dispersion processes, we assess whether panel series exhibit distributional convergence toward specific observed time series, revealing them as long run determinants of the underlying latent trend. The approach also offers a new perspective on cointegration between time series and panel data, focusing on the relative variation of the panel data with respect to the cointegration error. Applying this method to U.S. state-level crime rates demonstrates that the …

Art Pricing And Anti-Corruption Campaigns: Evidence From Repeat Sales Of Chinese Paintings, Yihan Wang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

My dissertation investigates the impact of China’s anti-corruption campaign on the pricing of traditional Chinese paintings, leveraging a unique dataset of repeat sales transactions. Since the 1990s, China’s art market has experienced explosive growth, becoming the world’s largest by 2011. However, this market is characterized by extreme opacity, facilitating elegant bribery (“ya hui” in Chinese), where artworks serve as vehicles for implicit corruption through inflated auctions or disguised gifts to officials. The launch of the "Eight-point Regulation" in December 2012 marked a significant intensification of anti-corruption efforts, raising the critical question of how such political shocks affect asset pricing in …

The Smu Trade Dashboard: Tracking And Quantifying The Trump Ii Tariffs, Pao-Li Chang, Ruoqing Chen, Lin Ma

Research Collection School Of Economics

The SMU Trade Dashboard (https://economics.smu.edu.sg/soetrade/tr ade-dashboard), developed by the SMU Center for Research on International Trade, consists of Tariff Tracker and Trade Simulation functions. The Tariff Tracker allows users to track the tariff applicable to an HS 6-digit product or an ISIC 2-digit sector bymarkets and country origins. The Trade Simulation presents quantitative simulation results of the effects of Trump II tariffs (and the associated tariff responses by its trading partners) on trade flows, welfare, and wages. This companion paper documents the methodologies underlying the tariff data collection protocol and the structuralsimulation designs.

Sectoral Shockwaves: Examining Bursa Malaysia's Sector Indices Amid The Covid-19 Pandemic, Alyssa April Dellow, Hafizah Bahaludin

International Journal of Management, Finance and Accounting

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak is becoming a widespread concern, as it is causing a decline in economies and negatively impacting stock markets worldwide. As the Malaysian government implements the Movement Control Order (MCO) to curb the spread of the deadly virus, the Malaysian stock market is rapidly impacted, becoming volatile and unpredictable throughout the pandemic phase. Thus, this study aims to analyse the structural correlation patterns of the Bursa Malaysia Sectoral Index Series using the threshold network approach. The data utilised in this study are the closing prices of all 13 sectoral indexes, spanning from January 1, 2019, …

Gamification Strategies And Customer Churn Reduction In Entrepreneurial Retail Firms: An Empirical Study Of Millennials, Si Chong En, Oo Yu Hock, Nor Azila Mohd Noor, Zheng Feei Ma, Khairul Nizam Mahmud

International Journal of Management, Finance and Accounting

This study investigates the impact of gamification strategies on customer churn reduction in entrepreneurial retail firms, focusing on Millennial consumers in Malaysia’s Klang Valley. Customer churn threatens profitability, particularly for emerging enterprises, and gamification has emerged as a potential tool to enhance customer engagement and retention. Drawing on the Self-Determination Theory, the study examines three gamified marketing interventions: membership programmes, contest rewards, and personalised discounts as direct predictors of churn reduction. A quantitative, cross-sectional research design was employed, using a structured questionnaire distributed to 180 Millennial consumers through purposive sampling. The data were analysed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation …

Financial Stability Success Strategies For Nursing Homes, Jennifer Helene Garrison

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

Ineffective regulatory strategies can lead to reduced financial stability. Nursing home leaders who wrestle to improve regulatory practices may find their business facing reduced financial sustainability. Grounded in management by objectives theory, the purpose of this qualitative pragmatic inquiry research project was to identify and explore the effective strategies nursing home leaders used to implement regulatory compliance practices that increase financial sustainability. The participants were nine nursing home leaders who had successfully implemented regulatory compliance strategies within their organizations. Data was collected through semistructured interviews, public websites, and current and archival public documents. Through thematic analysis, three themes were identified: …

Behavioural And Socioeconomic Drivers Underlying Solar Adoption In Egypt’S Cairo And Giza: A Micro-Level Perspective, Maha Elhini, Hoda Hassaballa, Rasha Hammam

Economics

Although Egypt falls within the solar belt, solar energy use on the household level remains very sparse. This research examines the factors driving and hindering households’ willingness to shift from fossil fuels to solar energy. The study evaluates the socioeconomic determinants of households’ willingness to adopt photovoltaic (PV) solar panels, based on a random distribution of 301 questionnaires in Cairo and Giza – two of Egypt’s most densely populated governorates. Two models were used─ a Logistic Model and a Structural Equations Model (SEM) that regresses the willingness to install PV panels on household characteristics. For a deeper analysis of how …