Digital Commons Network^™

Trouble, Shu Li

Olin Business School Graduate Student Theses and Dissertations

Generally, we do not want trouble, but oftentimes trouble is the most interesting thing in finance. This thesis has three essays related to trouble. The first essay suggests predictors of trouble (accounting fraud or financial distress) also predict excess returns for newly-listed firms. The second and third essays offer suggestions about what approaches best mitigate damage from nontraded wealth that can have trouble in the form of big losses. The second paper offers general results, including an indicator of when hedging is good and when it is bad, and the third essay provides technical results used in the second essay.

Essays In Behavioral And Experimental Economics, Yves-Paul Auffray

Arts & Sciences Graduate Student Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation consists of three self-contained articles in the field of Behavioral and Experimental Economics. Chapter one and three investigate the implications of non-standard preferences, i.e., social preferences for economic decision making. Another common theme in Behavioral Economics is that of bounded rationality. In chapter two, I look at correlation neglect, which is one example of bounded rationality. The first chapter "Circumstances, effort choice and redistribution," investigates the effects of differences in personal circumstances on individual effort choice and on income redistribution. I construct a model in which a worker’s production depends on a combination of circumstances, effort and unknown …

Climate Change And Environmental Crises In Coastal Cities: Charleston Vs New York City, Nolan Rodriguez

Student Theses 2015-Present

This paper addresses the increasing vulnerability that coastal communities face regarding climate crises and rising sea levels. Specifically, this paper investigates the environmental crises facing Charleston, South Carolina, and New York City. The geographical location of these cities places a more severe threat upon their environment, as opposed to urban collectives removed from the immediate effect of rising sea levels. A cross-examination of politics and economics is discussed in order to determine the causal relationship of each city’s engagement with its surrounding environment. This paper examines how each city is affected by climate change, what measures are in place to …

Projecting The Demand For Workers In The Production Of Lithium-Ion Batteries In The United States, Erik Vasilauskas, Dakota Mccracken, Michael Horrigan

Reports

No abstract provided.

A Hierarchical Decision Model For Evaluating The Strategy Readiness Of Quantitative Machine Learning/Data Science-Driven Investment Strategies, Mohammadsaleh Saadatmand

Dissertations and Theses

Big data and computational technologies are increasingly important worldwide in asset and investment management. Many investment management firms are adopting these data science methods and technologies to improve performance across all investment processes. Researchers actively use these methods to develop more effective systematic investment strategies and produce more reliable outcomes less vulnerable to human decision-making biases. However, the success of such a strategy depends heavily on the scientific rigor applied throughout the process. "Best practices involve understanding how to make better decisions in the research design process. A good question is whether we can make better decisions in developing quantitative …

Beer, Bourbon, And Bertrand: An Experimental Economics Analysis, Noah Cameron Dixon

Honors Thesis

The purpose of this paper is to determine the effect that binge drinking has on economic performance in a standard Bertrand-style game. Results indicate that binge drinking, when paired with poor protective behavioral strategies, increases cooperative pricing in a Bertrand-style game, with this result persisting across various contextual frameworks. In the aggregate, this study contributes to the literature by being the first of its kind to evaluate the effect of observational binge-drinking meta scores on performance in a Bertrand-style game. To measure economic performance in the market, participants play the 2/3 average game and a standard Bertrand game with zero …

The Impact Of Sexual Orientation And Sexual Behavior On Wages, Curtis Lowe

Theses and Dissertations

On General Social Survey data from 2008–2018, I estimate the impact of sexual orientation on wages by addressing mismeasurement in sexual orientation that causes the estimates to attenuate towards zero. I use interval regression to estimate wages on reported sexual orientation. I then identify consistent reports of sexual orientation and sexual behavior to estimate wage gaps between individuals whose reported sexual orientation is consistent with their behavior. Removing inconsistent reports reduces the amount of attenuation that biases the estimates. Interacting sexual orientation and sexual behavior improves the wage gap estimates slightly and increases the value in absolute terms, suggesting that …

Presidential Influence On The Bureaucracy: The Curious Case Of Lina Khan, Nickolas Remish

Departmental Honors & Graduate Capstone Projects

How effective can a president be in promoting his or her policies through the bureaucracy? Most theories postulate the president has influence – via appointees, budgeting, and executive orders. This paper unpacks the president’s influence on the bureaucracy by analyzing President Biden’s effect on antitrust, particularly with regards to addressing labor concerns. Biden appears to depart from previous presidential administrations due to his heightened emphasis on labor’s need for protection and antitrust law as the optimal vehicle for helping workers. The data, pulled from federal and state court antitrust cases since 2000, relies on textual analysis with regards to the …

Llms Can’T Be Trusted For Financial Advice, Gary N. Smith

Pomona Economics

ChatGPT and other large language models (LLMs) do not understand the text they input and output. When three prominent LLMs were tested with 11 financial-decision prompts, the LLM responses were seemingly authoritative but riddled with arithmetic and critical-thinking mistakes. Financial planners are unlikely to be replaced by LLMs anytime soon.

Examining The Relationship Between Politics And The Economy, Evan Pals

Honors College Theses

The purpose of this project is to quantify the relationship between the US political environment and the American economy. First, impacts of U.S. presidential elections on the American economy are analyzed. The project will analyze the time effects of elections on multiple economic indicators. Average returns on the following investments will be observed: Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, gold, and silver. Additionally, the price of crude oil and the consumer price index will be studied. Time dummy variables will then be incorporated to show whether an election took place within the given time period, splitting the data into two …

Dreams And Livelihoods In Rural Areas Require Capital, Too: An Investigation Into The Role Of Diminishing Community Banks, Financial Education, And Access To Capital In Rural Areas, Jackson Walton

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

Individuals in rural communities face unprecedented economic challenges due to a lack of financial education and a decline in the prevalence of community banks. These problems have continuously grown exponentially without successful attempt at remedy. The community banks that once served as the center of economic activity and prevalence in rural communities are leaving these communities quickly- leaving many without access to lines of credit, personal relationship banking, and without necessary financial education in a world with more financial options than ever. Access to banking and higher financial literacy proficiency rates are almost directly linked to better financial outcomes like …

The Economics Behind The Legalization Of Sports Gambling And Financial Market Relations, John Bassham

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

With the recent legalization of sports gambling, it has become a popular spectacle among sports fans and financial analysts pursuing an understanding of it. This thesis dives into the meticulous relationship between sports gambling and economic factors/financial market relations using academic literature to understand the relationship.

The thesis explores sports gambling from an economic standpoint using incentives to understand the market participants and economic advantages and disadvantages. It also uses academic literature and analytics to make a case for market efficiency while also delving into particular inefficiencies.

Furthermore, this thesis uses characteristics of the stock market in comparison of the …

An Account And Reflection Of What Has Allowed Poland To Have A Successful Transformation From Communism To A Free-Market Economy: How Foreign Investment And Poland's Tax Code Has Stimulated Economic Growth And What Ukraine Can Learn When Rebuilding Its Economy., Gunnar Krug

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

I have always had a deep fascination with history, mainly European history. This academic thesis is a perfect opportunity to blend my learnings from the Sam M. Walton College of Business with my lifelong passion for European history. My paper is about finding a specific policy during Poland’s transformation from a centralized economic communist country to a free market democratic country and using that to help stimulate Ukraine’s economic recovery postwar with Russia. I traveled to Poland for about a week to get the best understanding of what Poland’s recovery looked like, not just in terms of economic numbers but …

Do Unions And Collective Bargaining Impact Economic Inequality In Oecd Nations?, Brady D. Crosby

Political Science Theses and Capstones

The decline of unionization has coincided with a dramatic increase in income and wealth inequality within countries across the world. Many theories in the existing literature have been proposed to explain both trends, including technology/automation, globalization and shifts in public policy. I analyze the impact of collective bargaining rates and union density on economic inequality. To test the connection between collective bargaining, labor unions and inequality, I use a series of statistical tests, including basic correlation tests, as well as a series of linear regression tests with Gini, union density, collective bargaining among other variables. The results show a moderately …

Exploring Diversity, Discrimination, And Performance Dynamics, George Agyeah

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation utilizes empirical and experimental approaches to investigate the multifaceted factors that affect decision-making in economic contexts. The three chapters place a particular focus on group affiliation, perceived discrimination, and the gender gap in entrepreneurship. The first chapter explores the impact of team diversity on economic decision-making within a dynamic context. Through a series of laboratory experiments involving participants randomly assigned to teams, the study examines how team diversity influences individual behavior and performance. Results indicate that team diversity significantly affects individual behavior, with newcomers being particularly influenced by the diversity of the team they join. The findings underscore …

Persuasion As A Function Of Celebrity, Argument Complexity, And Need For Cognition, Stratton Stave, Blair T. Johnson Dr., Lisset Martinez-Berman, Matthew B. Jané

Honors Scholar Theses

With advertising commanding so much money as an industry, it is critical to determine what people like or do not with ads. Our focus was on three main factors within advertising, two dimensions within how the advertisement is presented, one based on the person reading the ad. The two dimensions based on presentation were the complexity of the ad, done the first time by omitting letters from the ad and the second time by swapping letters within words, and celebrity endorsement, comparing popstar Taylor Swift’s to Alicia Steele, an AI-generated celebrity. We also measured Need for Cognition (NFC), the level …

Essays On The Labor Market Outcomes And Location Choices Of Military Veterans, Brian Bifulco

All Dissertations

The economic outcomes of military veterans are a persistent source of interest for economists, policy analysts, and the public in the United States. Veterans' outcomes bear directly on the decision of prospective recruits to join the military and current service-members to exit the military, informing policymakers about the long-term sustainability of the all-volunteer force. This dissertation focuses on veterans' economic outcomes by examining their relationship with market entry conditions and the location decisions veterans make when they exit the military.

Chapter 1 examines the earnings and employment outcomes of new military veterans associated with market entry conditions. This chapter intersects …

De-Escalating The United States-China Trade War Using A Global Conflict Resolution Methodology Framework, Angelina Kapp

Undergraduate Honors Theses

How can the United States and China collaboratively de-escalate their current trade relationship using a conflict resolution methodology to foster economic growth and foreign investor confidence in the evolving landscape of global trade? This paper will serve as a guide to those wanting to gain a comprehensive understanding of the macroeconomic causes and impacts of the contentious trade war between the U.S. and China. The year 2018 can be attributed to the start of the war when then-President Donald Trump implemented tariffs on Chinese goods and products. These back-and-forth financial and economic measures have been continually imposed to this day …

Economic Anomalies Following The Handover Of Hong Kong, Nathan Martin

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper seeks to examine and provide a possible explanation for economic anomalies in Hong Kong following its handover to China. Hong Kong was on a 99-year lease to the United Kingdom from China before being handed back over July 1^st, 1997. Due to the “one country, two systems” policy espoused in the handover agreement that was to be implemented for fifty years, this event marks a rare natural experiment of a peaceful regime change without a significant change in governance. This paper seeks to understand the impact of the act of regime change on selected key macroeconomic …

Community Development In Stann Creek, Belize, Connor O'Neill

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

This research attempts to understand the inner workings of community development by taking part in ongoing development projects in Belize. Through collaboration with existing government entities, we took part in meetings, surveys, and site visits to gather the data necessary for the development projects. These projects consisted of finding cost of production, collecting market research, and constructing business plans. During our time, we experienced multiple difficulties similar to those that developers consistently encounter. Ultimately, we gained valuable insight into procedures involved in community development, as well as being able to aid in ongoing development work.

Teaching Financial Econometrics To Students Converting To Finance, Stan Hurn, Peter C. B. Phillips, Vance Martin, Jun Yu

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Financial econometrics is a dynamic discipline that began to take on its present form around the turn of the century. Since then it has found a permanent position as a popular course sequence in both undergraduate and graduate teaching programs in economics, finance, and business schools. Because of the breadth of the subject’s foundations, its extensive coverage in applications and because these courses attract a wide range of students with accompanying interests and skill sets that cover diverse areas and technical capabilities, teaching financial econometrics presents many challenges to the university educator. This chapter addresses some of these challenges, provides …

Essays On Weak Identification, Dennis Guo Wei Lim

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation presents a comprehensive examination of inference techniques for weak instrumental variable (IV) models, crucial in addressing endogeneity and bias in econometric analyses. Comprising two interconnected chapters, the research explores innovative methodologies to enhance the reliability and robustness of IV regression estimations. Chapter 1 is concerned with maximizing the power of tests in the many weak IVs setting. This is done by introducing a novel approach that considers a linear combination of jackknife Anderson-Rubin (AR), jackknife Lagrangian multiplier (LM), and orthogonalized jackknife
LM tests for inference in IV regressions with many weak instruments and heteroskedasticity. Following I. Andrews (2016), …

Assessing Consumer Willingness To Pay For Zinc-Biofortified Rice – The Case Of Colombia, Sara Ann Oswalt

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Hidden hunger, a form of undernourishment caused by micronutrient deficiencies, remains a critical global challenge affecting billions worldwide. Biofortification of staple crops, such as rice, offers a promising solution to address this problem. However, changes in the physical and culinary characteristics due to biofortification may hinder consumer acceptance and limit the benefits of this approach. This research explores consumer preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for zinc-biofortified rice in Cartagena, Colombia. A non-hypothetical experimental auction, including 400 consumers in five different locations within Cartagena, was conducted to analyze the impact of information, socioeconomic factors, and consumer nutrition knowledge on WTP …

(Wp 2024-03) The Dynamic Temporal Sequence And Reflexive Adjustment Behavior: Foundations For A Behavioral Alternative To Optimization Theory, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This paper discusses the difference between mainstream and heterodox economics in terms of philosophy’s distinction between two types of temporal sequences governing events: the static, truth-tenseless before-after sequence and the dynamic, truth-tensed past-present-future sequence. Mainstream theory and optimization analysis employs the first. However, Aristotle showed long ago this implies fatalism. Heterodox explanations employ the second, which I argue implies people reflexively adjust their choices over time in a combined backward-looking and forward-looking way that rules out optimization. Central to this explanation of behavior is how uncertainty about the future is connected to uncertainty about the past. I show this can …

The Balance Of Concessions In Trade Agreements, Mostafa Beshkar, Pao-Li Chang, Shenxi Song

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper introduces a quantitative framework to analyze the WTO’s reciprocity principle. Utilizing two polar bargaining environments, we measure terms-of-trade concessions among WTO members and examine how shifts in applied tariffs and economic fundamentals affect bilateral and multilateral balance of concessions. We find significant disparities in concessions, largely driven by the rise in trade imbalances since the early 1990s. Notably, although US-China bilateral tariffs suggest considerable terms-of-trade benefits for China, under a hypothetical balanced trade scenario, their relationship evolves towards near reciprocity following China’s accession to the WTO. Furthermore, in contrast to the significant gains in its relationship with the …

Better The Devil You Know: Improved Forecasts From Imperfect Models, Dong Hwan Oh, Andrew John Patton

Research Collection School Of Economics

Many important economic decisions are based on a parametric forecasting model that is known to be good but imperfect. We propose methods to improve out-of-sample forecasts from a misspecified model by estimating its parameters using a form of local M estimation (thereby nesting local OLS and local MLE), drawing on information from a state variable that is correlated with the misspecification of the model. We theoretically consider the forecast environments in which our approach is likely to offer improvements over standard methods, and we find significant forecast improvements from applying the proposed method across four distinct empirical analyses including volatility …

The Effect Of Crime On Mental Health In South Africa, Magda Tsaneva, Lauren-Kate Laplante

Economics

This paper examines the impact of district-level crime rates in South Africa on individual depression symptoms. We use panel data from the National Income Dynamics Survey collected between 2008 and 2014 and estimate an individual fixed effects regression model, thus controlling for characteristics of the individual's environment that could affect crime and mental health. We find that an increase of one standard deviation in property (violent) crime is associated with a 7.2 (8.7) percentage point increase in the probability of depression symptoms. Analysis of potential mechanisms suggests that indirect exposure to crime likely affects mental health by increasing stress rather …

Mandatory Credit Allocation And Government Guarantee In The Philippines, Luis F. Dumlao

Economics Department Faculty Publications

Mandatory credit allocation is a policy intervention to pressure banks to lend to certain sectors that otherwise unfettered finance would not give access to. While some would argue that mandatory credit allocation results in sub-optimal allocation of resources, it has been shown that such intervention results is socially desirable outcome. However, mandatory credit allocation should not be the responsibility of banks only, it must be supported with government guarantees. In the Philippines, there are three sectors in which mandatory credit allocation is given namely the agriculture sector, the micro, small and medium enterprises or MSME sector, and enterprises involved in …

Essays On Industrial Organization, Hayley Wabiszewski

Arts & Sciences Graduate Student Theses and Dissertations

Big pharma is increasingly using acquisitions to fill their R&D pipelines and the proliferation of the biotechnology industry has created a thick market of innovative target startups. This dissertation analyzes the dynamic equilibrium effects of biotech startup acquisitions by big pharma on drug innovation and entry. Using a novel dataset on 175 acquired startups from 2000 - 2018, I document several new facts regarding the R&D outcomes of acquired drug projects and entry behavior of startups in markets where acquisitions occur. Motivated by this evidence, I build a dynamic oligopoly model of the pharmaceutical industry featuring big firms and startups …

Partisan Perspectives On Inflation: Exploring Bias In Economic Expectations, Anna Durall

Economics Honors Projects

Inflation expectations are important determinants of future inflation and individual consumer behavior. Recent attention has been devoted to individual-level heterogeneity in inflation expectations. I consider political partisanship as a source of heterogeneity and question whether expectations are biased by partisanship. I find that they are, i.e., that individuals from the president's political party expect lower inflation relative to members of the opposing party (this difference is statistically insignificant during the Bush presidency), and that this result cannot be explained by additional sources of heterogeneity. I also examine whether belonging to the president's political party affects the rationality of expectations and …