Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Modeling Interactions Between Risk, Time, And Social Preferences, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

Recent studies have observed systematic interactions between risk, time, and social preferences that constitute violations of `dimensional independence' and are not explained by the leading models of decision making. This note provides a simple approach to modeling such interaction effects while predicting new ones. In particular, we present a model of rational-behavioral preferences that takes the convex combination of `behavioral' System 1 preferences and `rational' System 2 preferences. The model provides a unifying approach to analyzing risk, time, and social preferences, and predicts how these preferences are correlated with reliance on System 1 or System 2 thinking.

Money Is More Than Memory, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari

ESI Working Papers

Impersonal exchange is the hallmark of an advanced society and money is one key institution that supports it. Economic theory regards money as a crude arrangement for monitoring counterparts’ past conduct. If so, then a public record of past actions—or memory—should supersede the function performed by money. This intriguing theoretical postulate remains untested. In an experiment, we show that the suggested functional equivalence between money and memory does not translate into an empirical equivalence: money removed the incentives to free ride, while memory did not. Monetary systems performed a richer set of functions than just revealing past behaviors.

A Dual System Model Of Risk And Time Preferences, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

Discounted Expected Utility theory has been a workhorse in economic analysis for over half a century. However, it cannot explain empirical violations of 'dimensional independence' demonstrating that risk interacts with time preference and time interacts with risk preference, nor does it explain present bias or magnitude-dependence in risk and time preferences, or correlations between risk preference, time preference, and cognitive reflection. We demonstrate that these and other anomalies are explained by a dual system model of risk and time preferences that unless models of a rational economic agent, models based on prospect theory, and dual process models of decision making.

Prenatal Risk For Autism Spectrum Disorder (Asd): Fetal Cortisol Exposure Predicts Child Asd Symptoms, Sheena Ram, Mariann A. Howland, Curt A. Sandman, Elyssia Poggi Davis, Laura M. Glynn

Psychology Faculty Articles and Research

The etiology of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is multifactorial, complex, and likely involves interactions among genetic, epigenetic, and environmental factors. With respect to environmental influences, a growing literature implicates intrauterine experiences in the origin of this pervasive developmental disorder. In this prospective longitudinal study, we examined the hypothesis that fetal exposure to maternal cortisol may confer ASD risk. In addition, because ASD is four times more prevalent in males than in females, and because sexually dimorphic responses to intrauterine experiences are commonly observed, we examined whether or not any associations differ by fetal sex. Maternal plasma cortisol was measured at …

Child Obesity And The Interaction Of Family And Neighborhood Socioeconomic Context, Ashley W. Kranjac, Justin T. Denney, Rachel T. Kimbro, Brady S. Moffett, Keila N. Lopez

Sociology Faculty Articles and Research

The literature on neighborhoods and child obesity links contextual conditions to risk, assuming that if place matters, it matters in a similar way for everyone in those places. We explore the extent to which distinctive neighborhood types give rise to social patterning that produces variation in the odds of child obesity. We leverage geocoded electronic medical records for a diverse sample of over 135,000 children aged 2 to 12 and latent profile modeling to characterize places into distinctive neighborhood contexts. Multilevel models with cross-level interactions between neighborhood type and family socioeconomic standing (SES) reveal that children with different SES, but …

Like A Jar Of Flies? A Study Of Self-Control In An Organizational Social Dilemma With Large Stakes, Matthew W. Mccarter, Jonathan R. Clark, Darcy Fudge Kamal, Abel Winn

Business Faculty Articles and Research

We study the practice of self-control in an organizational social dilemma when the stakes are large, using 47 years of vital census data from 18^th century Sweden. From 1750 to 1800, eighty percent of Sweden lived in a simple-structure organization called a bytvång or village commons. The amount of resources a village family received was a function of their size. During this period, crop failures left the population facing starvation. Using autoregressive time-series modeling, we test whether the people of Sweden continued to take steps toward increasing the stress on the commons by marrying and birthing children or practiced …

Theorizing Development Of Parasocial Engagement, Riva Tukachinsky, Gayle S. Stever

Communication Faculty Articles and Research

The article proposes a theoretical model of the development of parasocial relationships (PSRs) building on Knapp’s model of relationship development. Through synthesis of research across disciplines, the model conceptualizes the relational goals and parasocial interactions (PSIs) specific to the PSR. The model identifies variables that predict engagement at that level, describes the stage’s outcomes/effects, and considers the utility of existing measures to assess these stages. The conceptualization of PSRs as a dynamic process rather than intensity of a monolithic experience offers new directions worthy of empirical examination.

Spreading The Good News: Analyzing Socially Shared Inspirational News Content, Qiaho Ji, Arthur A. Raney, Sophie Janicke-Bowles, Katherine R. Dale, Mary Beth Oliver, Abigail Reed, Jonmichael Seibert, Arthur A. Raney Ii

Communication Faculty Articles and Research

Past research indicates that people often share awe-inspiring news online. However, little is known about the content of those stories. In this study, more broadly defined “inspirational” articles shared through The New York Times website over a 6-month period were analyzed, with the goals of describing the content and identifying characteristics that might predict inspirationality and measures of retransmission. The results provided a snapshot of content found within inspirational news stories; they also revealed that self-transcendent language use predicted the inspirationality of a news story, as well as how long an article appeared on a most shared list.

Coupling Between Land–Ocean–Atmosphere And Pronounced Changes In Atmospheric/Meteorological Parameters Associated With The Hudhud Cyclone Of October 2014, Akshansa Chauhan, Rajesh Kumar, Ramesh P. Singh

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

India is vulnerable to all kinds of natural hazards associated with land, ocean, biosphere, atmosphere, and snow/glaciers. These natural hazards impact large areas and the population living in the affected regions. India is surrounded by ocean on three sides and is vulnerable to cyclonic activities. Every year cyclones hit the east and west coasts of India, affecting the population living along the coasts and infrastructure and inland areas. The extent of the affected inland areas depends on the intensity of the cyclone. On 12 October 2014, a strong cyclone “Hudhud” hit the east coast of India that caused a high …

Land Use And Land Cover Changes, And Environment And Risk Evaluation Of Dujiangyan City (Sw China) Using Remote Sensing And Gis Techniques, Biswajit Nath, Zheng Niu, Ramesh P. Singh

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Understanding of the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change, its transitions and Landscape risk (LR) evaluation in earthquake-affected areas is important for planning and urban sustainability. In the present study, we have considered Dujiangyan City and its Environs (DCEN), a seismic-prone area close to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (8.0 Mw) during 2007–2018. Five different multi-temporal data sets for the years 2007, 2008, 2010, 2015, and 2018 were considered for LULC mapping, followed by the maximum likelihood supervised classification technique. The individual LULC maps were further used in four time periods, i.e., 2007–2018, 2008–2018, 2010–2018, and 2015–2018, to evaluate the …

Zombie Culture In Past And Modern Mythologies, Lehua Johnson

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

In modern media the notion of a zombie brings to mind the images of rotting flesh, a desire for flesh, and surviving in a desolate post-apocalyptic world. While zombies have certainly evolved into a niche genre separate from horror and science fiction, it is imperative that the origins of this modern-day phenomenon are explored and analyzed in an academic context. From the empty threats of the goddess Ishtar in ancient Mesopotamia to urban legends of former Haitian slaves, the foundation of zombie culture provides strong insight to humanity’s fear of losing itself to mere corporeal forms. Zombie culture is the …

Yellow Fever: Asian Representation In Western Pornography, Chye Shoong Chin

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

This research project seeks to explore the various implications porn films make on Asians Orientalism. Generally, Asians in pornography are composed of multiple negative archetypes, all based on the underlining purpose of servitude. Characters are portrayed through stereotypes including the use of colonial language to misrepresent Asian men and women in both straight and gay porn videos. Referred to as Orientalism, this ideology exploits Asian characters to privilege the White, male viewer. My research project investigates the following question: How are Asians represented in gay and straight pornographic films and pornographic scenes?

I will be applying scholarly arguments to various …

Thoughts And Prayers, Chloe Kardasopoulos

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

Examining the symbolic Gun against its tangible counterpart illuminates abstract attachments of power and superiority this nation associates with the weapon. These elements loaded in the Gun transform the weapon into an object representative of American identity. Analyzing ideological commitments within the Gun guides a critical response to examine disproportionately increasing national gun violence against stagnant federal gun control. The ongoing gun debate must be analyzed in its entirety, beginning at its source - the Second Amendment. Scholars such as Gary Wills dissect the Second Amendment to extract its contextualized intent from modern writers’ manipulated interpretations. It is not the …

“They’Re Bringing Crime:” White Fear And Closing Borders, Hanna Rosenheimer

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

Leading up to the 2016 election, popular rhetoric surrounding immigrants to the United States took a marked turn. This change can be partially explained using Piotr Cap’s proximization theory, a threat-based discursive model that relies on locating threatening events in proximity to the audience in order to justify preventative or protective measures. Quantitative public opinion data from the Chapman University Survey of American Fears suggests that a disbelief in immigrants’ ability to assimilate is strongly correlated with a fear of immigrants committing crimes. White Americans who hold these beliefs typically tend to favor or strongly favor preemptive punitive action against …

Analyzing Gun Control: Nature Or Nurture?, Josie Chan

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

The year of 2017 was deemed the deadliest year for mass killings, which explains the growing tension between those who want stronger restrictions compared to those who do not. In October 2017, 59 people were killed, with over 500 people injured in the Las Vegas massacre. When a national tragedy of such magnitude strikes, it immediately stirs up talks of gun control measures. Whether it is the National Rifle Association funneling more money to fight for 2^nd Amendment rights or passionate Americans fighting for stronger gun restrictions, the debate regarding government restrictions on firearms and ammunition proves to be …

Fringe Groups And Their Beliefs In Conspiracies, Gianluca Allesina

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

My topic centers around the series of questions asked in the Chapman University Survey of American Fears on conspiracy theories and the degree to which Americans believe in them. The claims of such theories can range from strange, but ultimately harmless, such as the belief that the United States faked the Apollo 11 Moon Landing in 1969, to accusations with much serious implications such as the belief that the government is hiding information on the Las Vegas and/or Sandy Hook mass shootings. The latter recently made news with the biggest advocate of the “false flag shootings” belief, none other than …

Sources Of Fear In Climate Change, Ryan Shiri

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

Extreme weather patterns like floods, storms, droughts, radically dry and radically cold seasons are just a few extremities of the new normal accelerated by climate change. This research paper focus on how a more aggressive climate along with changing economic and political factors have affected the public’s fear for climate change. Using data derived from the Chapman Fear Survey, this paper will attempt to identify the main the actors contributing to fear of climate change. The data will regard a four-year regression following six variables that relate to climate change. The variables will be the public’s fear in oil spills, …

Images, Art, And Paraphernalia: Analyzing Tactics Of The United Farm Workers And The Coalition Of Immokalee Workers, Felicia Viano

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

What do grapes and tomatoes have in common? Both of these foods have been or are major points of contention for influential farm worker movements. The United Farm Workers formed by Cesar Chavez, Dolores Huerta, and Gilbert Padilla in 1962 has become a hallmark of success in labor history. This movement used traditional yet innovative methods of social movement strategy, eventually branding themselves as a household name. The images and paraphernalia such as buttons, bumper stickers, and posters distributed during the Delano Grape Strike seemed like a simple concept at the time, but there were strategic decisions made to incorporate …

Murmurs Of Revolution: Mythical Subversion In Dostoevsky, Connor Guetersloh

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

Throughout history, cultural designation has been plagued by unpredictability. It is all but impossible to know when the next revolution, violent or subtle, will arise and turn systems on their heads, systems appraised as carved in stone. If it is all but impossible, then the possibility still remains: Is there a hidden link to be discovered, to track and predict the outcomes of social unrest bubbling beneath the surface of society? I suggest that there is; this hidden link can be traced back to the field of semiotics, and primarily moves in a swift, subtle manner. Said link is known …

Using Response Times To Measure Ability On A Cognitive Task, Aleksandr Alekseev

ESI Working Papers

I show how using response times as a proxy for effort coupled with an explicit process-based model can address a long-standing issue of how to separate the effect of cognitive ability on performance from the effect of motivation. My method is based on a dynamic stochastic model of optimal effort choice in which ability and motivation are the structural parameters. I show how to estimate these parameters from the data on outcomes and response times in a cognitive task. In a laboratory experiment, I find that performance on a Digit-Symbol test is a noisy and biased measure of cognitive ability. …

Evaluating Bad Norms, John Thrasher

Philosophy Faculty Articles and Research

Some norms are bad. Norms of revenge, female genital mutilation, honor killings, and other norms strike us as destructive, cruel, and wasteful. The puzzle is why so many people see these norms as authoritative and why these norms often resist change. To answer these questions, we need to look at what “bad” norms are and how we can evaluate them. Here I develop an integrative analysis of norms that aims to avoid parochialism in norm evaluation. After examining and rejecting several evaluative standards, I propose what I call a comparative-functional analysis of norms that is both operationalizable/testable and nonparochial, and …

Slow-Fast Analysis Of A Multi-Group Asset Flow Model With Implications For The Dynamics Of Wealth, Mark Desantis, David Swigon

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

The multi-group asset flow model is a nonlinear dynamical system originally developed as a tool for understanding the behavioral foundations of market phenomena such as flash crashes and price bubbles. In this paper we use a modification of this model to analyze the dynamics of a single-asset market in situations when the trading rates of investors (i.e., their desire to exchange stock for cash) are prescribed ahead of time and independent of the state of the market. Under the assumption of fast trading compared to the time-rate of change in the prescribed trading rates we decompose the dynamics of the …

On Booms That Never Bust: Ambiguity In Experimental Asset Markets With Bubbles, Brice Corgnet, Roberto Hernán-González, Praveen Kujal

ESI Working Papers

We study the effect of ambiguity on the formation of bubbles and on the occurrence of crashes in experimental asset markets à la Smith, Suchanek, and Williams (1988). We extend their framework to an environment where the fundamental value of the asset is ambiguous. We show that, when the fundamental value is ambiguous, asset prices tend to be lower than when it is risky although bubbles form in both the ambiguous and the risky environments. Additionally, bubbles do not crash in the ambiguous case whereas they do so in the risky one. These findings regarding depressed prices and the absence …

Earth-Observation-Based Estimation And Forecasting Of Particulate Matter Impact On Solar Energy In Egypt, Panagiotis G. Kosmopoulos, Stelios Kazadzis, Hesham El-Askary, Michael Taylor, Antonis Gkikas, Emmanouil Proestakis, Charalampos Kontoes, Mohamed Mostafa El-Khayat

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

This study estimates the impact of dust aerosols on surface solar radiation and solar energy in Egypt based on Earth Observation (EO) related techniques. For this purpose, we exploited the synergy of monthly mean and daily post processed satellite remote sensing observations from theMODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), radiative transfer model (RTM) simulations utilizing machine learning, in conjunction with 1-day forecasts from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). As cloudy conditions in this region are rare, aerosols in particular dust, are the most common sources of solar irradiance attenuation, causing performance issues in the photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power …

Measuring Novel Antecedents Of Mental Illness: The Questionnaire Of Unpredictability In Childhood, Laura M. Glynn, Hal S. Stern, Mariann A. Howland, Victoria B. Risbrough, Dewleen G. Baker, Caroline M. Nievergelt, Tallie Z. Baram, Elysia P. Davis

Psychology Faculty Articles and Research

Increasing evidence indicates that, in addition to poverty, maternal depression, and other well-established factors, unpredictability of maternal and environmental signals early in life influences trajectories of brain development, determining risk for subsequent mental illness. However, whereas most risk factors for later vulnerability to mental illness are readily measured using existing, clinically available tools, there are no similar measures for assessing early-life unpredictability. Here we validate the Questionnaire of Unpredictability in Childhood (QUIC) and examine its associations with mental health in the context of other indicators of childhood adversity (e.g., traumatic life events, socioeconomic status, and parenting quality). The QUIC was …

Evaluation Of Spatial Generalization Characteristics Of A Robust Classifier As Applied To Coral Reef Habitats In Remote Islands Of The Pacific Ocean, Justin J. Gapper, Hesham El-Askary, Erik J. Linstead, Thomas Piechota

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

This study was an evaluation of the spectral signature generalization properties of coral across four remote Pacific Ocean reefs. The sites under consideration have not been the subject of previous studies for coral classification using remote sensing data. Previous research regarding using remote sensing to identify reefs has been limited to in-situ assessment, with some researchers also performing temporal analysis of a selected area of interest. This study expanded the previous in-situ analyses by evaluating the ability of a basic predictor, Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), trained on Depth Invariant Indices calculated from the spectral signature of coral in one location …

Conditional Independence In A Binary Choice Experiment, Nathaniel Wilcox

ESI Working Papers

Experimental and behavioral economists, as well as psychologists, commonly assume conditional independence of choices when constructing likelihood functions for structural estimation. I test this assumption using data from a new experiment designed for this purpose. Within the limits of the experiment’s identifying restriction and designed power to detect deviations from conditional independence, conditional independence is not rejected. In naturally occurring data, concerns about violations of conditional independence are certainly proper and well-taken (for well-known reasons). However, when an experimenter employs contemporary state-of-the-art experimental mechanisms and designs, the current evidence suggests that conditional independence is an acceptable assumption for analyzing data …

Selection In The Lab: A Network Approach, Aleksandr Alekseev, Mikhail Freer

ESI Working Papers

We study the selection problem in economic experiments by focusing on its dynamic and network aspects. We develop a dynamic network model of student participation in a subject pool, which assumes that students' participation is driven by the two channels: the direct channel of recruitment and the indirect channel of student interaction. Using rich recruitment data from a large public university, we find that the patterns of participation and biases are consistent with the model. We also find evidence of both short- and long-run selection biases between males and females, as well as between cohorts of students. Males tend to …

School‐Level Body Mass Index Shapes Children's Weight Trajectories, Ashley W. Kranjac

Sociology Faculty Articles and Research

BACKGROUND

Embedded within children's weight trajectories are complex environmental contexts that influence obesity risk. As such, the normative environment of body mass index (BMI) within schools may influence children's weight trajectories as they age from kindergarten to fifth grade.

METHODS

I use 5 waves of the ECLS‐K—Kindergarten Class 1998‐1999 data and a series of multilevel growth models to examine whether attending schools with higher overall BMI influences children's weight status over time.

RESULTS

Results show that, net of child, family, and school sociodemographic characteristics, children who attend schools with higher rates of obesity have increased weight compared to children who …

Harmful And Helpful Therapy Practices With Consensually Non-Monogamous Clients: Toward An Inclusive Framework, Heath A. Schechinger, John Kitchener Sakaluk, Amy C. Moors

Psychology Faculty Articles and Research

Drawing on minority stress perspectives, we investigated the therapy experiences of individuals in consensually nonmonogamous (CNM) relationships. Method: We recruited a community sample of 249 individuals engaged in CNM relationships across the U.S. and Canada. Confirmatory factor analysis structural equation modeling was used to analyze client perceptions of therapist practices in a number of exemplary practices (affirming of CNM) or inappropriate practices (biased, inadequate, or not affirming of CNM), and their associations with evaluations of therapy. Open-end responses about what clients found very helpful and very unhelpful were also analyzed. Results: Exemplary and inappropriate practices constituted separate but related patterns …