Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

A System Dynamics Model For Simulating Ambulatory Health Care Demands, Rafael Diaz, Joshua G. Behr, Mandar Tulpule

VMASC Publications

Introduction: This article demonstrates the utility of the system dynamics approach to model and simulate US demand for ambulatory health care service both for the general population and for specific cohort subpopulations over the 5-year period, from 2003 to 2008. A system dynamics approach that is shown to meaningfully project demand for services has implications for health resource planning and for generating knowledge that is critical to assessing interventions.

Methods: The study uses a cohort-component method in combination with structural modeling to simulate ambulatory health care utilization. Data are drawn from the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and the National …

Analyzing The Effects Of Policy Options To Mitigate The Effect Of Sea Level Rise On The Public Health And Medically Fragile Population: A System Dynamics Approach, Rafael Diaz, Joshua Behr, Anna Jeng, Hua Liu, Franceso Longo

VMASC Publications

A critical question related to climate change concerns to how rising sea level will affect underserved populations and medically fragile population in coastal zones and floodplains. As sea levels rise, coastal waters will regain near-tidal areas and co-mingle with human-made pollutants, resulting from decades of industrial and commercial activity. This poses potential threat and risks to public health and the environment. It is critical that decision makers will initiate a process of parsing resources to the mitigation and management of these issues. The purpose of this research is to model the inherent dynamics of this process and understand how near-term …