Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Weak-Form Market Efficiency And Calendar Anomalies For Eastern Europe Equity Markets, Francesco Guidi, Rakesh Gupta, Suneel Maheshwari

Suneel K. Maheshwari

No abstract provided.

Economic Freedom And Fiscal Performance: A Regression Analysis Of Indices Of Economic Freedom On Per Capita Gdp, Jason Ockey

Jason R Ockey

This paper explores whether different forms of economic freedom drive fiscal performance. We also seek to determine which specific measurements of economic freedom have the most statistically significant impacts. Though the results of our analysis show that economic freedom does impact levels of per capita GDP, the interpretation of these results is more complicated. Because some indices of economic freedom have negative effects on per capita GDP or are statistically insignificant, it is important to note that simply generally increasing a country’s overall level of economic freedom will not necessarily spur economic growth or increase fiscal performance. This paper does …

Daily Stock Market Movement From Oscillating Social Mood Factors, Cari Bourette

Cari Bourette

Since 2006, there has been ongoing research into the correlation of a set of oscillating mood factors and socioeconomic, geopolitical, and natural events with the goal of forecasting increased risks of destabilizing events. While promising results have been forthcoming, it has been difficult to present models that allowed those outside a small circle of specialists to participate. Between July 2007 and June 2010, weekly social mood projections, as published in monthly issues of MoodCompass, were used to develop a model to convert four oscillating mood factors into stock market expectations. This model was modified to generate signals of projected stock …

Current Research Projects Of The Public Health Pbrn Program, Glen P. Mays

Glen Mays

The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation’s Public Health Practice-Based Research Networks Program supports research on the organization, financing, and delivery of public health services using the infrastructure of practice-based networks (PBRNs). A Public Health PBRN brings multiple public health agencies into collaboration with an academic research partner to design and conduct studies in real-world practice settings. The program supports research through several different mechanisms, including (1) large-scale Research Implementation Awards (RIAs) conducted by established networks; (2) Quick-Strike Research Fund (QSRF) awards that support short-term, time-sensitive studies on emerging issues; and (3) supplemental Research Acceleration and Capacity Expansion (RACE) awards designed to …

Driving Qi With Research: Findings From Public Health Pbrns, Glen P. Mays

Health Management and Policy Presentations

Public health agencies are increasingly experimenting with quality improvement (QI) strategies designed to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of their efforts. Does QI work in public health, and if so for whom and under what circumstances? What QI strategies work best for which types of public health process failures, and at what cost? Research underway through the Public Health Practice-Based Research Networks (PBRN) Program is examining these types of questions to build an evidence base for public health QI.

Driving Qi With Research: Findings From Public Health Pbrns, Glen Mays

Glen Mays

Public health agencies are increasingly experimenting with quality improvement (QI) strategies designed to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of their efforts. Does QI work in public health, and if so for whom and under what circumstances? What QI strategies work best for which types of public health process failures, and at what cost? Research underway through the Public Health Practice-Based Research Networks (PBRN) Program is examining these types of questions to build an evidence base for public health QI.

A Collection Of Portfolio Management Issues, Mike Mccausland

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

This thesis consists of three chapters of interest to a portfolio manager. The first paper examines how the profitability of trading rules depends on volatility. In particular, a question of interest is whether one rule dominates all others regardless of the level of volatility, or whether it is more profitable to vary the choice of trading rule corresponding to volatility. Certain rules, such as the KST indicator using overbought/oversold levels, appear to excel under highly volatile conditions, while exponential moving average rules perform better with low volatility. In the second paper, a Value-at-Risk (VaR) model capable of producing accurate and …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — December 2011, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Overview Of The Public Health Pbrn Program, Glen Mays

Glen Mays

The Public Health Practice-Based Research Networks Program is a national program of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation that supports the development of research networks for studying the comparative effectiveness, efficiency and equity of public health strategies deployed in real-world practice settings. A practice-based research network (PBRN) brings multiple public health agencies together with research partners to design and implement studies of population-based strategies that prevent disease and injury and promote health. Participating practitioners and researchers collaborate to identify pressing research questions of interest, design rigorous and relevant studies, execute research effectively, and translate findings rapidly into practice. As such, PBRNs …

Uniform Asymptotic Normality In Stationary And Unit Root Autoregression, Chirok Han, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul

Research Collection School Of Economics

While differencing transformations can eliminate nonstationarity, they typically reduce signal strength and correspondingly reduce rates of convergence in unit root autoregressions. The present paper shows that aggregating moment conditions that are formulated in differences provides an orderly mechanism for preserving information and signal strength in autoregressions with some very desirable properties. In first order autoregression, a partially aggregated estimator based on moment conditions in differences is shown to have a limiting normal distribution that holds uniformly in the autoregressive coefficient rho, including stationary and unit root cases. The rate of convergence is root n when vertical bar rho vertical bar < 1 and the limit distribution is the same as the Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), but when rho = 1 the rate of convergence to the normal distribution is within a slowly varying factor of n. A fully aggregated estimator (FAE) is shown to have the same limit behavior in the stationary case and to have nonstandard limit distributions in unit root and near integrated cases, which reduce both the bias and the variance of the MLE. This result shows that it is possible to improve on the asymptotic behavior of the MLE without using an artificial shrinkage technique or otherwise accelerating convergence at unity at the cost of performance in the neighborhood of unity. Confidence intervals constructed from the FAE using local asymptotic theory around unity also lead to improvements over the MLE.

Power Maximization And Size Control Of Heteroscedasticity And Autocorrelation Robust Tests With Exponentiated Kernels, Yixiao Sun, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sainan Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

Using the power kernels of Phillips, Sun, and Jin (2006, 2007), we examine the large sample asymptotic properties of the t-test for different choices of power parameter (ρ). We show that the nonstandard fixed-ρ limit distributions of the t-statistic provide more accurate approximations to the finite sample distributions than the conventional large-ρ limit distribution. We prove that the second-order corrected critical value based on an asymptotic expansion of the nonstandard limit distribution is also second-order correct under the large-ρ asymptotics. As a further contribution, we propose a new practical procedure for selecting the test-optimal power parameter that addresses the central …

A Simple And Robust Method Of Inference For Spatial Lag Dependence, Zhenlin Yang, Yan Shen

Research Collection School Of Economics

A simple and reliable method of inference for the spatial parameter in spatial autoregressive models is introduced, based on a statistic obtained by centering and rescaling the numerator of the concentrated Gaussian score function. The resulted tests and confidence intervals are robust against the distributional misspecifications and are insensitive to the spatial layouts and the error standard deviation. In contrast, the standard methods based on Gaussian score and information matrix may lead to inconsistent inference when errors are non normal, and can be quite sensitive to the spatial layouts and the error standard deviation even when errors are normally distributed. …

Singapore Consumer’S Inflation Expectations And Creation Of Singapore Index Of Inflation Expectations, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The aim of this report is to highlight a broad spectrum of issues that brings about the measurement of the disagreement and the uncertainity and the formation of inflation expectations among economic agents in Singapore.

Score Tests For Inverse Gaussian Mixtures, A. F. Desmond, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The mixed inverse Gaussian given by Whitmore (Scand. J. Statist., 13, 1986, 211–220) provides a convenient way for testing the goodness-of-fit of a pure inverse Gaussian distribution. The test is a one-sided score test with the null hypothesis being the pure inverse Gaussian (i.e. the mixing parameter is zero) and the alternative a mixture. We devise a simple score test and study its finite sample properties. Monte Carlo results show that it compares favourably with the smooth test of Ducharme (Test, 10, 2001, 271-290). In practical applications, when the pure inverse Gaussian distribution is rejected, one is interested in making …

Exploring The Nexus Between Trade, Visitor Arrivals, Remittances And Income In The Pacific: A Study Of Vanuatu, Ronald R. Kumar, Vijay Naidu, Radika Kumar

Dr Ronald R Kumar

Nexus Between Financial And Technology Inclusion, Remittances And Trade Openness Vis-À-Vis Growth: A Study Of Nepal, Ronald R. Kumar

Dr Ronald R Kumar

No abstract provided.

Trade, Aid, Remittances And Financial Development: The Case Of Pakistan, Ronald Kumar

Dr Ronald R Kumar

El Vínculo Inversión Extranjera Directa Y Desigualdad Salarial En Los Estados Mexicanos, Vicente German-Soto, Nohemí Marcela Ríos González

Vicente German-Soto

Determinants Of Chilean Youth Voter Registration: Evidence For The Biobio Region, Andres A. Acuña

Andres A. Acuña

Youth voter registration is a worldwide phenomenon that exhibits a marked decline over the last two decades. On this basis, this paper presents evidence regarding those factors that determine the voter registration of Chilean youth, in particular, the inhabitants of Biobio region. In addition, it presents a microeconomic model for the voter registration decision, which enables to derive an empirical expression that can be estimated and tested. This empirical expression is coherent with the model proposed by Silberman and Durden (1975), which considers a relationship between voter registration and several social/economic variables. The model is estimated using a dynamic panel …

The Science Of Public Health Delivery: Evidence, Uncertainties & Research Needs, Glen Mays

Glen Mays

Policy initiatives to reform the nation's health system increasingly recognize the need to incorporate public health and prevention strategies. The nation's delivery system for public health, however, varies widely across states and communities in its structure, authority, and capabilities. This session examines research from the growing field of public health services and systems research to identify directions for improving public health delivery.

The Science Of Public Health Delivery: Evidence, Uncertainties & Research Needs, Glen P. Mays

Health Management and Policy Presentations

Policy initiatives to reform the nation's health system increasingly recognize the need to incorporate public health and prevention strategies. The nation's delivery system for public health, however, varies widely across states and communities in its structure, authority, and capabilities. This session examines research from the growing field of public health services and systems research to identify directions for improving public health delivery.

Estimating The Value Of Public Health Services & Systems: Evidence, Uncertainties, And Research Needs, Glen Mays

Glen Mays

The Affordable Care Act authorized the largest expansion in federal funding for public health services and delivery systems in decades. These provisions, designed to support programs and services that promote health and prevent disease and injury on a population-wide basis, remain controversial because of uncertainties regarding their effectiveness in improving health and constraining medical cost growth. This session examines a series of recent studies to shed light on the health and economic value of spending on public health.

Estimating The Value Of Public Health Services & Systems: Evidence, Uncertainties, And Research Needs, Glen P. Mays

Health Management and Policy Presentations

The Affordable Care Act authorized the largest expansion in federal funding for public health services and delivery systems in decades. These provisions, designed to support programs and services that promote health and prevent disease and injury on a population-wide basis, remain controversial because of uncertainties regarding their effectiveness in improving health and constraining medical cost growth. This session examines a series of recent studies to shed light on the health and economic value of spending on public health.

Disparities Research In Public Health Pbrns, Glen P. Mays

Health Management and Policy Presentations

Public health agencies are well positioned within the health system to play key roles in addressing oral health issues on a population-wide basis, However, current evidence reveals wide geographic variation in the delivery of public health interventions for oral health promotion. This session explores the factors contributing to this variation, and it highlights studies underway through the Public Health Practice-Based Research Networks (PBRNs) to produce more and better evidence about public health delivery and impact.

Disparities Research In Public Health Pbrns, Glen Mays

Glen Mays

Public health agencies are well positioned within the health system to play key roles in addressing oral health issues on a population-wide basis, However, current evidence reveals wide geographic variation in the delivery of public health interventions for oral health promotion. This session explores the factors contributing to this variation, and it highlights studies underway through the Public Health Practice-Based Research Networks (PBRNs) to produce more and better evidence about public health delivery and impact.

La Sociedad Mercantil Unipersonal: Pertinencia De Su Utilización En México, Max Garcia

Max Garcia Sanchez

No abstract provided.

Leading Improvement Through Inquiry: Practice-Based Research Networks In Public Health, Glen Mays

Glen Mays

The field of public health has surged in public visibility and attention in recent years due to its potential to mitigate leading risks to human health and wellbeing. Advances in prevention research provide an expanding toolbox of programs, policies, and interventions to reduce health risks. As these advances occur, uncertainties loom large regarding how best to deliver efficacious public health strategies to the populations at greatest risk. The nation's local, state, and federal public health agencies—together with their peers and partners in the private and public sectors—represent a vast yet diffuse delivery system of actors charged, to greater or lesser …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — November 2011, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Specification Sensitivity In Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing For Explosive Behavior, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specification used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to provide some empirical guidelines for the practical implementation of right-tailed unit root tests, focusing on the sup ADF test of Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011), which implements a right-tailed ADF test repeatedly on a sequence of forward sample recursions. We analyze and compare the limit theory of the sup ADF test under deferent hypotheses and model specifications. The …

Specification Testing For Nonparametric Structural Models With Monotonicity In Unobservables, Stefan Hoderlein, Liangjun Su, Halbert White

Research Collection School Of Economics

Monotonicity in a scalar unobservable is a now common assumption in economic theory and applications. Among other things, it allows one to recover the underlying structural function from certain conditional quantiles of observables. Nevertheless, monotonicity is a strong assumption, and its failure can have substantive adverse consequences for structural inference. So far, there are no generally applicable nonparametric specification tests designed to detect monotonicity failure. This paper provides such a test for cross-section data. We show how to exploit an exclusion restriction together with a conditional independence assumption, plausible in a variety of applications, to construct a test. Our statistic …