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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Three Essays On Macroeconomics And Development, Guilherme Klein Martins
Three Essays On Macroeconomics And Development, Guilherme Klein Martins
Doctoral Dissertations
This dissertation is a collection of essays that relate, in different forms, macroeconomic policies to economic development. Essay 1 provides evidence that austerity shocks have longrun negative effects on GDP. Besides addressing the important gap in the growing fiscal research regarding the short time horizon of the estimations, the paper analyzes two other important assumptions made in the literature regarding the (i) symmetry of episodes of fiscal expansion and contraction and (ii) uniformity of fiscal multipliers for different sizes of shocks. We use narrative fiscal shocks and propensity score reweighting in a local projections setup to account for the potential …
Essays On Exchange Rate Shocks And The Political Economy Of Local Fiscal Policy In Brazil, Raphael Rocha Gouvea
Essays On Exchange Rate Shocks And The Political Economy Of Local Fiscal Policy In Brazil, Raphael Rocha Gouvea
Doctoral Dissertations
Do exchange rate shocks have distributional consequences? Does employment respond to exchange rate shocks? Do political parties matter when it comes to governing cities? Each chapter of this dissertation attempts to answer one of these questions in the Brazilian context. In the first chapter, titled Large devaluations and inflation inequality: evidence from Brazil, I show that prices of tradable goods/lower-priced varieties increase significantly more than the prices of nontradables/higher-priced varieties. These relative price changes may lead to inflation inequality when household consumption baskets are different across the distribution of income. Using Cravino and Levchenko (2017)'s methodology, we show that …
The Fundamental And Non-Fundamental Components Of Stock Prices: The Role Of Time-Varying Expected Inflation, Maosen Zhong
The Fundamental And Non-Fundamental Components Of Stock Prices: The Role Of Time-Varying Expected Inflation, Maosen Zhong
Doctoral Dissertations
I derive testable implications of fundamental and non-fundamental components of stock prices. In order to control for the role of time-varying expected inflation and to be able to perform reasonable empirical tests, I use a nominal (rather than a real) interpretation of the present-value model (PVM), whereby nominal interest rates approximate expected inflation. I conjecture that the fundamental and non-fundamental components represent the permanent and temporary components of stock prices, respectively. A series of cointegration analysis over the annual period 1871–1997 confirms my conjecture for the model with time-varying expected inflation. Various fundamental and non-fundamental exclusion tests indicate that both …