Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Carbon Capture And Storage: Combining Economic Analysis With Expert Elicitations To Inform Climate Policy, Erin D. Baker, Haewon Chon, Jeffrey M. Keisler

Management Science and Information Systems Faculty Publication Series

The relationship between R&D investments and technical change is inherently uncertain. In this paper we combine economics and decision analysis to incorporate the uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for technical change in carbon capture and storage. We find a significant amount of disagreement between experts, even over the most mature technology; and this disagreement is most pronounced in regards to cost estimates. We then use the results of the expert elicitations as inputs to the MiniCAM integrated assessment model, to derive probabilistic information about the …