Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
- Discipline
Articles 1 - 6 of 6
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Long-Run Effects Of Austerity, Guilherme Klein Martins
Long-Run Effects Of Austerity, Guilherme Klein Martins
Economics Department Working Paper Series
This paper provides evidence that austerity shocks have long-run negative effects on GDP. Besides addressing the important gap in the growing fiscal research regarding the short time horizon of the estimations, this paper analyzes two other important assumptions made in the literature regarding the (i) symmetry of episodes of fiscal expansion and con- traction and (ii) uniformity of fiscal multipliers for different sizes of shocks. We use narrative fiscal shocks and propensity score reweighting in a local projections setup to account for the potential endogeneity of austerity policies and the non-linearity of its effects over time. The estimation is also …
Aggregate Demand, Functional Finance And Secular Stagnation, Peter Skott
Aggregate Demand, Functional Finance And Secular Stagnation, Peter Skott
Economics Department Working Paper Series
This paper makes three main points. Fiscal policy, first, may be needed in the long run to maintain full employment and avoid secular stagnation. If fiscal policy is used in this way, second, the long-run debt ratio depends (i) inversely on the rate of growth, (ii) inversely on government consumption, and (iii) directly on the degree of inequality. The analysis, third, suggests that policies and policy debates have been misguided. The recent rediscovery of ’secular stagnation’ by Summers and others should be welcomed, but the suggested theoretical redirection is unclear and does not go far enough.
Public Debt, Secular Stagnation, And Functional Finance, Peter Skott
Public Debt, Secular Stagnation, And Functional Finance, Peter Skott
Economics Department Working Paper Series
Fiscal policy and public debt may be required to maintain full employment and avoid secular stagnation. This conclusion emerges from a range of different models, including OLG specifications and stock-flow consistent (post-) Keynesian models. One of the determinants of the required long-run debt ratio is the rate of economic growth. Low growth leads to high debt, and empirical correlations between growth and debt may reflect this causal effect of growth on debt, rather than negative effects of debt on growth. A second result relates directly to austerity policies. The level of government consumption and the structure of taxation influence the …
Fiscal And Monetary Policy Rules In An Unstable Economy, Soon Ryoo, Peter Skott
Fiscal And Monetary Policy Rules In An Unstable Economy, Soon Ryoo, Peter Skott
Economics Department Working Paper Series
This paper examines the implications of different monetary and fiscal policy rules in an economy characterized by Harrodian instability. We show that (i) a monetary rule along Taylor lines can be stabilizing for low debt ratios but becomes de-stabilizing if the debt ratio exceeds a certain threshold, (ii) a `Keynesian' fiscal policy rule can stabilize the economy at full employment, (iii) a fiscal `austerity' rule that links fiscal parameters to deviations from a target debt ratio fails to adjust the `warranted' to the `natural' growth rate and destabilizes the warranted path, (iv) instability may arise from a combination of fiscal …
Public Debt In An Olg Model With Imperfect Competition: Long-Run Effects Of Austerity Programs And Changes In The Growth Rate, Peter Skott, Soon Ryoo
Public Debt In An Olg Model With Imperfect Competition: Long-Run Effects Of Austerity Programs And Changes In The Growth Rate, Peter Skott, Soon Ryoo
Economics Department Working Paper Series
We show that (i) dynamic inefficiency may be empirically relevant in a modified Diamond model with imperfect competition, (ii) if fiscal policy is used to avoid inefficiency and maintain an optimal capital intensity, the required debt ratio will be inversely related to the growth rate, and (iii) austerity policies reductions in government consumption and entitlement programs for the old generation raise the required debt ratio.
The Great Austerity War: What Caused The Deficit Crisis And Who Should Pay To Fix It?, James Crotty
The Great Austerity War: What Caused The Deficit Crisis And Who Should Pay To Fix It?, James Crotty
Economics Department Working Paper Series
Rapidly rising deficits at both the federal and state and local government levels, along with long-term financing problems in the Social Security and Medicare programs, have triggered a one-sided austerity focused class war in the US. Similar class conflicts have broken out around the globe. A coalition of the richest and most economically powerful segments of society and conservative politicians who represent their interests has demanded that deficits be eliminated by public-sector austerity - severe cuts at all levels of government in spending that either supports the poor and the middle class or funds crucial public investment. These demands constitute …