Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

A 2022 Assessment Of Food Security And Health Outcomes During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Ashley C. Mccarthy, Farryl Bertmann, Emily H. Belarmino, Sam Bliss, Jennifer Laurent, Jonathan Malacarne, Scott Merrill, Rachel E. Schattman, Kathryn Yerxa, Meredith T. Niles

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

We conducted a Northern New England survey to understand the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food security, food access, home food production, health behaviors, and health outcomes. The surveys were conducted in the spring of 2022 (April-May) with a total of 1,013 adults (598 in Maine and 415 in Vermont) responding to the survey. Key findings include:1. The prevalence of food insecurity remains similarly high to early points in the pandemic, likely driven by inflation and food prices, and long-term impacts from the pandemic. 2. The majority (62%) indicated the recent rise in food prices affected their food purchasing, …

Food Security And Assistance Programs In Vermont Before And During Covid-19, Madeleine Burke, Ashley C. Mccarthy, Emily H. Belarmino, Farryl Bertmann, Meredith T. Niles

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Here we surveyed a cohort of Vermonters at three time points over the first year of the pandemic. The surveys were conducted in March/ April 2020, June 2020, and March/April 2021. The demographics of the 441 Vermonters who responded to all three surveys are comparable to average Vermont demographics on income, but the respondents were more likely to have a college degree and to identify as female. This brief explores how the use of food assistance programs varied within this population and changed over the course of the pandemic. Key findings include: 1. The number of Vermonters using food assistance …

Food Security Impacts Of The Covid-19 Pandemic: Following A Group Of Vermonters During The First Year, Ashley C. Mccarthy, Farryl Bertmann, Emily H. Belarmino, Meredith T. Niles

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

We surveyed a cohort of Vermonters three times during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic to understand the impacts of the pandemic on food security and food access. The surveys were conducted in March/April 2020, June 2020, and March/April 2021. A total of 441 Vermonters responded to all three surveys. This brief shares changes in their experiences between March 2020 and March 2021. Key findings include: 1. Food insecurity rates increased during the pandemic and remained above pre-pandemic levels a year after the start of the pandemic. 2. 31.6% of respondents experienced food insecurity at some point in the …

Food Insecurity Prevalence Across Diverse Sites During Covid-19: A Year Of Comprehensive Data, Meredith T. Niles, Francesco Acciai, Deanne Allegro, Alyssa Beavers, Emily H. Belarmino, Farryl Bertmann, Erin Biehl, Jessica Bishop-Royse, Brianna Bradley, Barrett P. Brenton, James Buszkiewicz, Brittney N. Cavaliere, Young Cho, Eric Clark, Lauren Clay, Kathryn Coakley, Jeanne Coffin-Schmitt, Sarah M. Collier, Casey Coombs, Marcelle Dougan, Anne Dressel, Adam Drewnowski, Tom Evans, Beth Feingold, Kathryn J. Fiorella, Katie Funderburk, Preety Gadhoke, Diana Gonzales-Pacheco, Amelia Greiner Safi, Sen Gu, Karla Hanson, Amy Harley, Kaitlyn Harper, Alan Ismach, Anna L. Josephson, Linnea Laestadius, Heidi Leblanc, Laura R. Lewis, Michelle Litton, Katie S. Martin, John Mazzeo, Scott Merrill, Roni Neff, Esther Nguyen, Punam Ohri-Vachaspati, Abigail Orbe, Jennifer J. Otten, Sondra Parmer, Salome Pemberton, Giselle Pignotti, Zain Al Abdeen Qusair, Victoria Rivkina, Joelle Robinson, Stephanie Rogus, Chelsea M. Rose, Saloumeh Sadeghzadeh, Mateja R. Savoie-Roskos, Rachel Schattman, Brinda Sivaramakrishnan, Mckenna Voorhees, Kate Yerxa, Rachel Zack

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Key Findings

1. NFACT includes 18 study sites in 15 states as well as a national poll, collectively representing a sample size of more than 26,000 people. Some sites have implemented multiple survey rounds, here we report results from 22 separate surveys conducted during the year since the COVID-19 pandemic began in March 2020.
2. 18 out of 19 surveys in 14 sites with data for before and since the pandemic began found an increase in food insecurity since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic as compared to before the pandemic.
3. In nearly all surveys (18/19) that measured food insecurity both before …

Covid-19 Impacts On Vermont Farms And Food Businesses: Pivots, Needs And Opportunities For The Future, Meredith T. Niles, Farryl Bertmann, Emily H. Belarmino, Mark Cannella, David S. Conner

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

This report highlights results from a survey of Vermont farm and food businesses conducted during August and September 2020, with a total of 223 respondents. The survey was distributed via a number of non-profit, business, and state agencies in Vermont. Respondents included farms, food and farm product retail, agritourism operators, on-farm food processors, food and beverage manufacturers, nurseries/greenhouses/garden centers, and food hubs/aggregators. Overall, we find the majority of respondents experienced a COVID-19 business impact, especially in market and financial ways. We also find that the majority of respondents had business changes they wanted to make, but couldn't because of a …

Home Food Production And Food Security Since The Covid-19 Pandemic, Meredith T. Niles, Mattie Alpaugh, Farryl Bertmann, Emily H. Belarmino, Sam Bliss, Jennifer Laurent, Jonathan Malacarne, Ashley Mccarthy, Scott Merrill, Rachel E. Schattman, Kathryn Yerxa

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

We conducted a Northern New England survey to understand the initial and continued impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food security, food access, and home food production (HFP) (i.e. gardening, fishing, harvesting shellfish, foraging, hunting, trapping, raising animals for meat, dairy, or eggs, and food preservation such as canning, drying or freezing). The surveys were conducted in the Spring and Summer of 2021 (March – June). The survey was conducted in Maine (n = 562) and Vermont (n = 426). The cohort of respondents was representative of racial and ethnic identities of Vermont and Maine state populations. The data presented …

Climate Impacts Associated With Reduced Diet Diversity In Children Across Nineteen Countries, Meredith T. Niles, Benjamin F. Emery, Serge Wiltshire, Molly E. Brown, Brendan Fisher, Taylor H. Ricketts

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

It is widely anticipated that climate change will negatively affect both food security and diet diversity. Diet diversity is especially critical for children as it correlates with macro and micronutrient intake important for child development. Despite these anticipated links, little empirical evidence has demonstrated a relationship between diet diversity and climate change, especially across large datasets spanning multiple global regions and with more recent climate data. Here we use survey data from 19 countries and more than 107 000 children, coupled with 30 years of precipitation and temperature data, to explore the relationship of climate to child diet diversity while …

Covid-19 Impacts On Food Security And Systems: A Third Survey Of Vermonters, Meredith T. Niles, Emily H. Belarmino, Farryl Bertmann

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

This brief report highlights the findings from a third survey of Vermonters since COVID-19. We surveyed 600 Vermonters, representative on Vermont demographics on race, ethnicity and income in August and September 2020. We find that nearly 30% of Vermont respondent households were food insecure between March and September, with households experiencing a job disruption, households with children, and respondents without a college degree at greater odds for food insecurity. One-third of respondents used some type of food assistance program since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns about food access and challenges had largely gone down, on average since March …

Vermont Seed Saver And Producer Survey: 2020 Summary Report, Susanna Baxley, Carina Viola Isbell, Daniel Tobin

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

This report summarizes findings from a 2020 survey of seed producers in the state of Vermont. This survey, which was part of a larger research project aimed to characterize Vermont seed systems, aimed to identify areas of opportunity and concern for seed producers across the state. Data collected include types and valued characteristics of planting material produced from food crops in the state, information on motivations, challenges, and preferences that non-commercial and commercial seed producers perceive in their production of planting material, sourcing and distribution of planting material, forms of exchange that exist between seed producers and the community, and …

Text Mining The Food Security Literature Reveals Substantial Spatial Bias And Thematic Broadening Over Time, Matthew W. Cooper, Molly E. Brown, Meredith T. Niles, Moataz M. Elqadi

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

We conducted text mining analyses on nearly the entirety of academic literature related to food security. Assessing the literature's spatial scope, we found a truly global body of research conducted across 187 different countries, but with significant spatial heterogeneities in where research is conducted. Comparing the spatial distribution of the literature to actual rates of food insecurity, we found only a slight association between where food security research is conducted and where food security needs are located. Using topic modeling to assess the thematic scope of the literature, we found that originally food security research focused on economic policy and …

Simulating Phase Transitions And Control Measures For Network Epidemics Caused By Infections With Presymptomatic, Asymptomatic, And Symptomatic Stages, Benjamin Braun, Başak Taraktaş, Brian Beckage, Jane Molofsky

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. We investigate phase transitions associated with three control methods for epidemics on small world networks. Motivated by the behavior of SARS-CoV-2, we construct a theoretical SIR model of a virus that exhibits presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and symptomatic stages in two possible pathways. Using agent-based simulations on small world networks, we observe phase transitions for epidemic spread related to: 1) Global social distancing with a fixed probability of …

Prevalence And Factors Associated With Food Insecurity Across An Entire Campus Population, Emilie S. Riddle, Meredith T. Niles, Amy Nickerson

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Comprehensive assessment of food insecurity across all college community members is lacking. This research surveyed a random sample of an entire campus population at a Northeast University in two surveys (spring 2017, n = 1,037 and fall 2017, n = 1,123). Analysis of variance, t-tests, and multivariable logit models were used to understand food insecurity outcomes and comparisons among groups. The overall rate of food insecurity on campus was 19.6% (spring) and 15.0% (fall). Food insecurity rates were highest among undergraduates, graduate and medical students, and staff as compared to faculty. First generation students and off-campus students were also more …

Covid-19 And Food Insecurity Impacts: A Follow Up Vermont Study, Meredith T. Niles, Anna L. Josephson, Farryl Bertmann, Emily H. Belarmino, Roni Neff

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

This brief report details the results from a follow-up survey of 1,236 Vermonters in June 2020, after an initial survey in March/April 2020 focused on the impact of COVID-19 on food access and security. The key results include: 1) Nearly 1 in 4 respondents (23%) were classified as food insecure in June, a reported 22% decrease since March, but higher than before COVID-19. 2) People of color, those without a college degree, those with a job loss, households with children, women, and younger people had greater odds of experiencing food insecurity. 3) The majority of respondent households had experienced some …

The Early Food Insecurity Impacts Of Covid‐19, Meredith T. Niles, Farryl Bertmann, Emily H. Belarmino, Thomas Wentworth, Erin Biehl, Roni Neff

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

COVID‐19 has disrupted food access and impacted food insecurity, which is associated with numerous adverse individual and public health outcomes. To assess these challenges and understand their impact on food security, we conducted a statewide population‐level survey using a convenience sample in Vermont from March 29 to April 12, 2020, during the beginning of a statewide stay‐at‐home order. We utilized the United States Department of Agriculture six‐item validated food security module to measure food insecurity before COVID‐19 and since COVID‐19. We assessed food insecurity prevalence and reported food access challenges, coping strategies, and perceived helpful interventions among food secure, consistently …

Early Covid-19 Impacts On Food Retail And Restaurants: Consumer Perspectives From Vermont, Emily H. Belarmino, Farryl Bertmann, Thomas Wentworth, Erin Biehl, Roni Neff, Meredith T. Niles

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has affected people worldwide, disrupting food access and security. To understand how food systems and security are impacted during this pandemic, an online survey was launched in Vermont from March 29th - April 12th, 2020 (less than a week after the Governor’s Stay Home/Stay Safe order). A total of 3,219 Vermonters responded, and nearly half provided written remarks in response to open-ended questions about worries or general comments. This brief summarizes survey findings and respondent comments about food retail and restaurants. We use quantitative data to understand the frequency of beliefs and behaviors, and qualitative …

Food Access Through School Meals And Food Pantries During Covid-19: Early Findings From Vermont, Farryl Bertmann, Emily H. Belarmino, Thomas Wentworth, Erin Biehl, Roni Neff, Meredith T. Niles

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has affected people worldwide, disrupting food access, and security. To understand how food systems and security are impacted during this pandemic, an online survey was launched in Vermont from March 29 - April 12, 2020 (less than a week after the “Stay Home/Stay Safe” order). A total of 3,219 Vermonters responded with 182 providing a written answer specifically about food pantries and 828 of the respondents providing written comments to the open-ended question at the end of the survey. This brief summarizes survey findings and respondent comments about experiences with two programs during the early …

Legume Genetics And Biology: From Mendel’S Pea To Legume Genomics, Petr Smýkal, Eric J.B. Von Wettberg, Kevin Mcphee

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Legumes have played an important part in cropping systems since the dawn of agriculture, both as human food and as animal feed. The legume family is arguably one of the most abundantly domesticated crop plant families. Their ability to symbiotically fix nitrogen and improve soil fertility has been rewarded since antiquity and makes them a key protein source. The pea was the original model organism used in Mendel’s discovery of the laws of inheritance, making it the foundation of modern plant genetics. This Special Issue provides up-to-date information on legume biology, genetic advances, and the legacy of Mendel.

The Impact Of Coronavirus On Vermonters Experiencing Food Insecurity, Meredith T. Niles, Farryl Bertmann, Emily H. Morgan, Thomas Wentworth, Erin Biehl, Roni Neff

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Key Findings

1. Respondents experiencing food insecurity were more likely to be people of color, female, live in households with children, and live in larger households.

2. 84.2% of respondents who experienced food insecurity at some point in the year before the coronavirus pandemic remained food insecure during the early days of the outbreak.

3. The majority of respondents experiencing food insecurity are not utilizing food assistance programs.

4. ⅔ of respondents experiencing food insecurity are already buying different, cheaper foods or eating less to make their food last.

5. ⅔ of respondents experiencing food insecurity with a job had …

Food Access And Security During Coronavirus: A Vermont Study, Meredith T. Niles, Farryl Bertmann, Emily H. Morgan, Thomas Wentworth, Erin Biehl, Roni Neff

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Key Findings

1. Respondents reported a 33% increase in food insecurity since the coronavirus outbreak began in Vermont (from 18% to 24%).

2. 45% of respondents with jobs experienced a job disruption or loss.

3. Respondents said the most helpful actions for meeting their food needs would be increased trust in the safety of going to stores and more food in stores.

4. Respondents worried most about food becoming unaffordable and running out of food if they were unable to go out.

5. Vermonters are using a variety of strategies to adapt: a majority of respondents are at least somewhat …

Employment And Food During Coronavirus, Meredith T. Niles, Farryl Bertmann, Emily H. Morgan, Thomas Wentworth, Erin Biehl, Roni Neff

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Key Findings

1. 45% of respondents with jobs experienced some type of job disruption or loss. 19.7% had a reduction in hours or income, 9.3% had been furloughed, and 15.5% had lost their job since the coronavirus outbreak.

2. 38.5% of respondents experiencing job loss or disruption since the outbreak were classified as food insecure.

3. Respondents experiencing job disruption or loss were significantly more likely to be already implementing food purchasing or eating changes and concerned about food access compared to those who did not experience a change in employment.

4. Respondents with job disruption or loss were significantly …

Effects Of Social Cues On Biosecurity Compliance In Livestock Facilities: Evidence From Experimental Simulations, Luke Trinity, Scott C. Merrill, Eric M. Clark, Christopher J. Koliba, Asim Zia, Gabriela Bucini, Julia M. Smith

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Disease outbreaks in U.S. animal livestock industries have economic impacts measured in hundreds of millions of dollars per year. Biosecurity, or procedures intended to protect animals against disease, is known to be effective at reducing infection risk at facilities. Yet, to the detriment of animal health, humans do not always follow biosecurity protocols. Human behavioral factors have been shown to influence willingness to follow biosecurity protocols. Here we show how social cues may affect cooperation with a biosecurity practice. Participants were immersed in a simulated swine production facility through a graphical user interface and prompted to make a decision that …

Patient-Centric Structural Determinants Of Adherence Rates Among Asthma Populations: Exploring The Potential Of Patient Activation And Encouragement Tool Trustr To Improve Adherence, Asim Zia, Arthur Brassart, Sheila Thomas, Fen Ye, Judith J. Stephenson, C. Daniel Mullins, Christopher A. Jones

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Background: Lack of adherence with prescribed medications among the asthma populations exacerbates health outcomes and increases social and economic costs. Objectives: The proposed study aims to model patient-centric structural determinants of adherence rates among asthma patients and explore the potential of mobile health apps such as the TRUSTR platform to improve adherence using its power of monetary and non-monetary chatbotting and non-monetary nudges. Following specific hypotheses are tested: (1) Patient attributes, such as their age and medical condition, have significant effect on their adherence with the prescribed treatment plans. (2) Behavioral nudging with rewards and engagement via mobile health apps …

Open Knowledge Commons Versus Privatized Gain In A Fractured Information Ecology: Lessons From Covid-19 For The Future Of Sustainability, Martin Hensher, Katie Kish, Joshua Farley, Stephen Quilley, Katharine Zywert

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

COVID-19 has shone a bright light on a number of failings and weaknesses in how current economic models handle information and knowledge. Some of these are familiar issues that have long been understood but not acted upon effectively – for example, the danger that current systems of intellectual property and patent protection are actually inimical to delivering a cost-effective vaccine available to all, whereas treating knowledge as a commons and a public good is much more likely to deliver efficient outcomes for the entire global population. But COVID-19 has also demonstrated that traditional models of knowledge production and dissemination are …

Using Experimental Gaming Simulations To Elicit Risk Mitigation Behavioral Strategies For Agricultural Disease Management, Eric M. Clark, Scott C. Merrill, Luke Trinity, Gabriela Bucini, Nicholas Cheney, Ollin Langle-Chimal, Trisha Shrum, Christopher Koliba, Asim Zia, Julia M. Smith

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Failing to mitigate propagation of disease spread can result in dire economic consequences for agricultural networks. Pathogens like Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus, can quickly spread among producers. Biosecurity is designed to prevent infection transmission. When considering biosecurity investments, management must balance the cost of protection versus the consequences of contracting an infection. Thus, an examination of the decision making processes associated with investment in biosecurity is important for enhancing system wide biosecurity. Data gathered from experimental gaming simulations can provide insights into behavioral strategies and inform the development of decision support systems. We created an online digital experiment to simulate …

Smallholder Farmers Spend Credit Primarily On Food: Gender Differences And Food Security Implications In A Changing Climate, Marissa Carranza, Meredith T. Niles

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

In many low-income nations agriculture is used as the primary source of income, which in the face of a changing climate, is known to be at considerable risk for the smallholder farmers that rely on it. Financial resources may enable smallholder farmers to implement adaptation practices and diversify income and investments, which has the potential to affect household income and food security. Here we explore relationships between access to different types of financial resources among male and female-headed households and women vs. men, use of financial resources, and its relationship to food security. We use data from the CGIAR Climate …

Knowledge, Attitudes, Beliefs And Behaviors Regarding Fruits And Vegetables Among Cost-Offset Community-Supported Agriculture (Csa) Applicants, Purchasers, And A Comparison Sample, Karla L. Hanson, Leah C. Volpe, Jane Kolodinsky, Grace Hwang, Weiwei Wang, Stephanie B. Jilcott Pitts, Marilyn Sitaker, Eretii Timeon, Alice S. Ammerman, Rebecca A. Seguin

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Community-supported agriculture (CSA) participation has been associated with high fruit and vegetable (FV) consumption, which may be due to better access to FV for CSA purchasers, or to positive knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs (KAB) regarding healthy eating among CSA applicants. The objective of this study was to examine KAB and consumption, in association with application to a cost-offset CSA (CO-CSA) program, and with CO-CSA purchase among applicants. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of CO-CSA applicants and a comparison sample in August 2017. All respondents were English-reading adults with a child 2–12 years old and household income of < 185% of the federal poverty level. Among CO-CSA applicants, some were CO-CSA purchasers (n = 46) and some were not (n = 18). An online comparison sample met equivalent eligibility criteria, but had not participated in CSA for three years (n = 105). We compared CO-CSA applicants to the comparison sample, and compared purchasers and non-purchaser sub-groups, using Mann- Whitney U tests and chi-square analysis. CO-CSA applicants reported better knowledge, selfefficacy, home habits, and diet than the comparison sample. Among applicants, CO-CSA purchasers and non-purchasers had equivalent KAB, but children in purchaser households had higher FV consumption than in non-purchaser households (4.14 vs. 1.83 cups, P = 0.001). Future research should explore associations between CO-CSA participation and diet using experimental methods.

Spatial Considerations For Implementing Two Direct-To-Consumer Food Models In Two States, Marilyn Sitaker, Jared T. Mcguirt, Weiwei Wang, Jane Kolodinsky, Rebecca A. Seguin

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

To open new markets, some farmers have adapted direct-to-consumer (DTC) models, such as Community Supported Agriculture (CSA), to reach new settings or audiences. We compared sociodemographic and geospatial contexts to farmers' experience with one of two DTC innovations: a cost-offset CSA for low-income families and food boxes distributed through rural convenience stores. We geocoded addresses of thirteen farms and DTC pickup sites in two U.S. states (Vermont and Washington) and calculated road network distances from pickup to supermarket, farmers' market, and farm. We compiled Census block-level demographic and transportation data, and compared it to postseason interviews to explore the effect …

Decision-Making In Livestock Biosecurity Practices Amidst Environmental And Social Uncertainty: Evidence From An Experimental Game, Scott C. Merrill, Christopher J. Koliba, Susan M. Moegenburg, Asim Zia, Jason Parker, Timothy Sellnow, Serge Wiltshire, Gabriela Bucini, Caitlin Danehy, Julia M. Smith

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Livestock industries are vulnerable to disease threats, which can cost billions of dollars and have substantial negative social ramifications. Losses are mitigated through increased use of disease-related biosecurity practices, making increased biosecurity an industry goal. Currently, there is no industry-wide standard for sharing information about disease incidence or on-site biosecurity strategies, resulting in uncertainty regarding disease prevalence and biosecurity strategies employed by industry stakeholders. Using an experimental simulation game, with primarily student participants, we examined willingness to invest in biosecurity when confronted with disease outbreak scenarios. We varied the scenarios by changing the information provided about 1) disease incidence and …

How Consumers Use Mandatory Genetic Engineering (Ge) Labels: Evidence From Vermont, Jane Kolodinsky, Sean Morris, Orest Pazuniak

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Food labels legislated by the U.S. government have been designed to provide information to consumers. It has been asserted that the simple disclosures “produced using genetic engineering” on newly legislated U.S. food labels will send a signal that influences individual preferences rather than providing information. Vermont is the only US state to have experienced mandatory labeling of foods produced using genetic engineering (GE) via simple disclosures. Using a representative sample of adults who experienced Vermont’s mandatory GE labeling policy, we examined whether GE labels were seen by consumers and whether the labels provided information or influenced preferences. Nearly one-third of …

Network Meta-Metrics: Using Evolutionary Computation To Identify Effective Indicators Of Epidemiological Vulnerability In A Livestock Production System Model, Serge Wiltshire, Asim Zia, Christopher Koliba, Gabriela Buccini, Eric Clark, Scott Merrill, Julie Smith, Susan Moegenburg

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

We developed an agent-based susceptible / infective model which simulates disease incursions in the hog production chain networks of three U.S. states. Agent parameters, contact network data, and epidemiological spread patterns are output after each model run. Key network metrics are then calculated, some of which pertain to overall network structure, and others to each node’s positionality within the network. We run statistical tests to evaluate the extent to which each network metric predicts epidemiological vulnerability, finding significant correlations in some cases, but no individual metric that serves as a reliable risk indicator. To investigate the complex interactions between network …