Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Changing Demographics Of Florida’S Latino Electorate: Latino Party Affiliation And Voter Registration Rates In The State, Central Florida, And South Florida, Laird W. Bergad

Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies

Introduction: This special report in partnership with CNN en Espanol examines characteristics of Florida -- where the Latino electorate could very well determine victory in the 2016 presidential election.

Methods: Data were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau, Voting and Registration, as a part of the Current Population Survey data from the November Voter Supplements. The 2016 estimates were derived by using the yearly percentage rate of increase between 2004 and 2012. Additional data were derived from an analysis of the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) American Community Survey (ACS).

Results: The Latino population of Florida soared between 1990 …

Could Latinos Choose The Next President? States In Which Latinos Could Determine The Margin Of Victory In The 2016 Presidential Election, Laird W. Bergad

Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies

This special report in partnership with CNN en Espanol examines characteristics of states in which the Latino electorate could determine victory in the 2016 presidential election. Methods: Data were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau, Voting and Registration, as a part of the Current Population Survey data from the November Voter Supplements. The 2016 estimates were derived by using the yearly percentage rate of increase between 2004 and 2012. Additional data were derived from an analysis of the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) American Community Survey (ACS). Results: In Florida Latinos comprise a large share of the electorate and …

The Latino Voter Registration Dilemma, Laird Bergad

Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies

This special report in partnership with CNN en Espanol examined changes in the Latino electorate, registered voters, and voters in the U.S. and key swing states between 1992 and 2016. Methods: Data were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau, Voting and Registration, as a part of the Current Population Survey data from the November Voter Supplements. The 2016 estimates were derived by using the yearly percentage rate of increase between 2004 and 2012. Results: The absolute number of Latinos eligible to vote, registered, and who voted grew dramatically. Yet the rates of Latino voter registration were almost exactly the same …

The Latino Vote And Obama’S Reelection Possibilities: A Quantitative Assessment Of Its Possible Impact On Nine Swing States, Justine Calcagno

Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies

Introduction: This study examines the potential impact of the Latino electorate on nine key swing states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia) for the 2012 presidential election.

Methods: Data on Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, reorganized for public use by the Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, IPUMSusa. Cases in the dataset were weighted and analyzed to produce population estimates.

Results: Assuming that current polling data are somewhat accurate, Latino voter turnout and the direction of the Latino vote may not be as meaningful …