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Articles 1 - 30 of 59
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Driven By Change: The Impact Of Macroeconomic Shifts And Covid-19 On New Vehicle Sales, Jackson Aldrich
Driven By Change: The Impact Of Macroeconomic Shifts And Covid-19 On New Vehicle Sales, Jackson Aldrich
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic factors and the COVID-19 pandemic on new vehicle sales. In order to address these two topics, a two-pronged approach was used with separate regression models. The macroeconomic variables include monthly supply of new homes, CPI for urban public transportation, unemployment rate, disposable personal income, inflation expectation, consumer sentiment, average gas prices, and total vehicle miles traveled which were regressed on total vehicle sales from 1978-2022. The regression results confirmed and supported current literature and highlighted the importance of the housing market and unemployment rate on new vehicle sales. The COVID-19 pandemic model variables …
Determinants And Effects Of Offset Usage Within The California Cap-And-Trade System – A Firm-Level Analysis, Adarsh Srinivasan
Determinants And Effects Of Offset Usage Within The California Cap-And-Trade System – A Firm-Level Analysis, Adarsh Srinivasan
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis examines the determinants of the usage of carbon offsets within the California cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gas emissions. It also investigates the relationship between a firm’s investment in offsets and its financials for publicly traded companies. Entity-level data from 2013 to 2020 was used, which was sourced from the California Air Resources Board. Multiple regression analysis was used to investigate factors that correlated with offset usage and whether offset usage correlated with EBITDA. Dummy variables indicating geographic location and economic sector of each entity were used as controls. The analysis found that total covered emissions and privately owned …
Impact Of Demand For H1b Visas In The Us On The Performance Of Listed Indian Firms, Jayaditya Shekhar Maliye
Impact Of Demand For H1b Visas In The Us On The Performance Of Listed Indian Firms, Jayaditya Shekhar Maliye
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis examines the relationship between Indian firm performance and the demand for H1B visas in the US. To test this relationship, a fixed effects model has been used on a panel dataset of 104 Indian firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) over the period 2009 to 2021. The results show that an increase in H1B visa demand is negatively and significantly associated with Indian firm performance. These findings suggest that the US’s demand for high skilled labor overseas has consequences for firms in the home country.
Application Of Sentiment Analysis And Machine Learning Techniques To Predict Daily Cryptocurrency Price Returns, Edward Wu
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the effects of social media sentiment relating to Bitcoin on the daily price returns of Bitcoin and other popular cryptocurrencies by utilizing sentiment analysis and machine learning techniques to predict daily price returns. Many investors think that social media sentiment affects cryptocurrency prices. However, the results of this paper find that social media sentiment relating to Bitcoin does not add significant predictive value to forecasting daily price returns for each of the six cryptocurrencies used for analysis and that machine learning models that do not assume linearity between the current day price return and previous daily price …
The Paycheck Protection Program's Effect On Real Estate Prices, Someswar Amujala
The Paycheck Protection Program's Effect On Real Estate Prices, Someswar Amujala
CMC Senior Theses
This paper investigates the relationship between the Paycheck Protec- tion Program (PPP) and real estate price increases. The Paycheck Protection Program was established by the Small Business Association in 2020 to pro- vide forgivable loans to businesses to aid with potential losses from COVID- 19 impacts. I leverage zip code level data across the United States and a fixed effects panel data model to quantitatively measure the PPP’s influence on housing and rental prices. I find a positive and significant relationship between the number of PPP loans disbursed and housing and rental rates. Specifically, a 1% change in the number …
Impact Of Recessions And The Business Cycle On Altruism, Nicolas De Mello
Impact Of Recessions And The Business Cycle On Altruism, Nicolas De Mello
CMC Senior Theses
I examine how recessions and the business cycle impact the time individuals allocate to altruism, using American Time Use Survey data from 2002-2019. The aim of the paper was to create a measure of altruism to explore changes in attitudes towards charity and altruism instead of the financial ability to do so. Additionally, I want to understand how economic shocks, such as recessions, impact behaviors and habits across the US population. Using ordinary least squares and the Tobit model, I created two models to capture both changes during and after recessionary periods. The first model is a regression of individuals’ …
Renewable Portfolio Standards: Effectiveness And Carbon Implications, Alexander S. Albrecht
Renewable Portfolio Standards: Effectiveness And Carbon Implications, Alexander S. Albrecht
CMC Senior Theses
A renewable portfolio standard (RPS) policy is a popular regulatory tool implemented within the U.S. and abroad to limit energy sector emissions and incentivize renewable energy. Assessing their effectiveness and efficiency is a key component of achieving further reductions. We assess an energy market under an RPS using fixed-effects panel and 2SLS regression models to lend empirical credence to common theory-based concerns about RPS policy, namely (1) that they leave emissions unregulated once the RPS requirement is met and (2) that they do not incentivize full use of renewable energy resources. Our results show these to be valid concerns that …
Guns And Fatal Police Shootings: Accuracy Of Firearm Prevalence Proxies In A Panel Data Analysis, Corin Elmore
Guns And Fatal Police Shootings: Accuracy Of Firearm Prevalence Proxies In A Panel Data Analysis, Corin Elmore
CMC Senior Theses
This paper explores the relationship between gun prevalence and fatal police shootings in the United States. Specifically, the study assesses the validity of using FSS (Firearm Suicides Per Total Suicides) as a proxy for gun prevalence. It examines whether FBI background check data can be a more reliable alternative. Through a panel data analysis, the study provides moderate evidence that FBI background check data performs better than FSS as a proxy for gun prevalence and that the relationship between firearm prevalence and fatal police shootings is positive. Additionally, the study finds that instrumenting FSS with background check data to account …
Finding Answers In Gaps: The Relationship Between Drugs And Mexico's Economy, Mariela Centeno
Finding Answers In Gaps: The Relationship Between Drugs And Mexico's Economy, Mariela Centeno
CMC Senior Theses
This paper sets out to understand the economic conditions that paved the way for the evolution and resilience of a powerful and resilient drug economy in Mexico. To do this, I examine the relationship between a proxy for drug movement from Mexico and large economic variables in the country. I use a dataset that incorporates the drug seizures from 1997 to 2022 to understand whether privatization and the resulting rising economic inequalities in Mexico paved the way for a growing drug economy. This paper builds on current literature regarding drug market estimates and drug economy interactions. Using an OLS regression …
Metrics At 8,000 Meters: Determinants Of Summit Success In The Himalayas, Alyssa Gallagher
Metrics At 8,000 Meters: Determinants Of Summit Success In The Himalayas, Alyssa Gallagher
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the determinants of success for individuals summiting 8,000-meter Himalayan peaks from 1995 to 2019. Using binary logistic regressions, this paper presents evidence that a climber’s citizenship is a highly significant determinant of success. Chinese citizens are clear outliers with 192% more odds of success than an American. The success rates related to season, gender, and year all conform with existing research, justifying the robustness of the citizenship trends. Despite controlling for per capita income, the results assert that wealth may not be an important determinant of success and provokes interesting questions as to what factors may influence …
Feature Investigation For Stock Returns Prediction Using Xgboost And Deep Learning Sentiment Classification, Seungho (Samuel) Lee
Feature Investigation For Stock Returns Prediction Using Xgboost And Deep Learning Sentiment Classification, Seungho (Samuel) Lee
CMC Senior Theses
This paper attempts to quantify predictive power of social media sentiment and financial data in stock prediction by utilizing a comprehensive set of stock-related fundamental and technical variables and social media sentiments. For conducting sentiment analysis, this study employs a pretrained finBERT model that provides three different sentiment classifications and respective softmax scores. Hence, the significance of these variables is evaluated with XGBoost regression and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) frameworks. Through investigating feature importance, this study finds that statistical properties of sentiment variables provide a stronger predictive power than a weighted sentiment score and that it is possible to quantify …
Determinants Of Housing Supply Expansion In The Western United States, Nathaniel Tolles
Determinants Of Housing Supply Expansion In The Western United States, Nathaniel Tolles
CMC Senior Theses
New residential construction is an important indicator of economic health. Previous empirical work demonstrates the profound power of housing starts in forecasting recession. Theoretical research, backed by empirical study, suggests that home prices and interest rates are closely related to the amount of residential investment. This paper attempts to better understand the complex relationship between various factors that influence the supply and demand of new housing; what information do suppliers and regulators use to determine how many new units of housing will be constructed? Specifically, we will look at the respective state housing markets of California, Oregon, and Washington by …
An Evaluation Of Knot Placement Strategies For Spline Regression, William Klein
An Evaluation Of Knot Placement Strategies For Spline Regression, William Klein
CMC Senior Theses
Regression splines have an established value for producing quality fit at a relatively low-degree polynomial. This paper explores the implications of adopting new methods for knot selection in tandem with established methodology from the current literature. Structural features of generated datasets, as well as residuals collected from sequential iterative models are used to augment the equidistant knot selection process. From analyzing a simulated dataset and an application onto the Racial Animus dataset, I find that a B-spline basis paired with equally-spaced knots remains the best choice when data are evenly distributed, even when structural features of a dataset are known …
What Is The Effect Of Social Capital On Community Resiliency Against Social Decay?, James Dail
What Is The Effect Of Social Capital On Community Resiliency Against Social Decay?, James Dail
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis builds off of the work of Robert Putnam and Charles Murray by using a fixed effects regression model and a first difference regression model to see if there is a relationship between the number of community institutions within a county and that county’s resiliency against social decay. Historically, it has been difficult to determine if there is a causal relationship in either direction between these variables because they are endogenous. That is, the underlying factors that determine whether a county will have low levels of social capital also determine whether the same county will have high levels of …
The Impact Of Regional Return On Education On The Self-Selection Of Mexican Immigrants, Warren Chen
The Impact Of Regional Return On Education On The Self-Selection Of Mexican Immigrants, Warren Chen
CMC Senior Theses
This paper uses the 2010 Mexican Population and Housing Survey to examine the role of regional return to education on migrant selection. The study uses a standard linear regression model to predict the educational attainment of migrants and compares it to the educational attainment of non-migrants in each Mexican State. It finds evidence of negative selection, that less educated Mexican citizens are more likely to migrate to the United States. It also finds little evidence of the impact of regional return to education on migrant selection. The study offers potential explanations for the lack of impact and suggests avenues for …
The Impacts Of Supra-Regional Multi-Resort Season Passes: A Hedonic Pricing Model Of Single-Day Lift Tickets For Us Ski Areas, Sijia Lai
CMC Senior Theses
Numerous media analyses claim that supra-regional multi-resort season passes (mega passes) are negatively impacting skiing, snowboarding, and winter-sport communities. In particular, media claims that ski areas on these season passes are charging higher single-day lift ticket prices to nudge people to buy their season pass products. To test this claim, I use a hedonic pricing model to estimate the impact of season passes on adult single-day lift ticket prices. By applying OLS regressions to a dataset of 302 US ski areas for the winter of 2018-19, I find that the ski areas on the leading season passes (Ikon and Epic …
First Movers In Marijuana: Tourism Boom Or Bust?, Henry Klyce Minervini
First Movers In Marijuana: Tourism Boom Or Bust?, Henry Klyce Minervini
CMC Senior Theses
In 2014, Colorado and Washington legalized the cultivation, sale, and consumption of recreational marijuana for anyone over the age of 21. In doing so, the two states presented the first opportunities for marijuana-specific tourism in the United States. Direct benefits of legalization to these first movers, namely tax revenues generated through the sale of marijuana, have been quantified, but the indirect benefits in the tourism sector are as of yet unquantified. Although there is a large body of informal literature and popular media on marijuana tourism, academic study of the subject is scant. Working with a panel composed of 47 …
M&A Performance: Market’S Initial Reaction As An Unbiased Indicator Of Post-Acquisition Performance, Nikolaos Papageorgiou
M&A Performance: Market’S Initial Reaction As An Unbiased Indicator Of Post-Acquisition Performance, Nikolaos Papageorgiou
CMC Senior Theses
This paper investigates the reliability of the stock market’s initial reaction to M&A announcements as a predictor of actual post-acquisition performance. The two prevailing methods for evaluating M&A performance are event studies (stock market-based measures) and accounting-based measures. The present study combines these two performance evaluation approaches in a single empirical examination. Both the post-merger buy-and-hold abnormal returns and changes in ROA are used as actual post-acquisition performance variables. The acquirer’s cumulative abnormal return (CAR) around the announcement is used as the market predictor variable. An econometric model is employed to test the predictive power of the announcement-period CAR on …
Are Cds Auctions The Tail Wagging The Dog? An Empirical Study Of Corporate Bond Return Volatility At The Time Of Default, Jennifer Mace
Are Cds Auctions The Tail Wagging The Dog? An Empirical Study Of Corporate Bond Return Volatility At The Time Of Default, Jennifer Mace
CMC Senior Theses
Over the past decade, numerous engineered credit events and cases of market participants manipulating bond prices to influence Credit Default Swap (CDS) auction payouts have occurred. These cases have become increasingly common, and the CFTC has stated they may constitute market manipulation and undermine not only the CDS market but also the credit derivative and default markets. Although there is a plethora of news and media coverage on publicized cases, there is no previous empirical research on evidence of these practices. This paper is motivated by the desire to determine if there is indirect evidence of bond price manipulation around …
Analysis Of The Economic Impact Of Constructing A Nba Arena On The Host City, Grant Gilchrist
Analysis Of The Economic Impact Of Constructing A Nba Arena On The Host City, Grant Gilchrist
CMC Senior Theses
Using economic data collected from 24 different Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the US, this thesis investigates the impact of constructing a new National Basketball Association (NBA) arena on the host city’s economy. When a simplistic model is implemented, which does not control for other economic factors or individual subject heterogeneity, significantly positive economic impacts of arena construction are observed. However, when a more appropriate model specification is implemented that controls for economic activity and individual heterogeneity, these effects are no longer statistically significant. This comparative analysis ultimately highlights the importance of appropriate model specification and supports the conclusion that new …
Is Avocado Toast The Reason I'M Still Living With My Parents?, Brendan Macdonald
Is Avocado Toast The Reason I'M Still Living With My Parents?, Brendan Macdonald
CMC Senior Theses
Is avocado toast the reason that I am still living with my parents? In other words, does the consumption of avocado toast, or more specifically eating out in general, have any impact on one’s ability to be a homeowner. In May of 2017, an Australian real estate developer by the name of Tim Gurner was asked to provide advice to young people who could not afford to purchase a home. He responded by saying, “when I was trying to buy my first home, I wasn’t buying smashed avocado for $19 and four coffees at $4 each,” (Victor, 2017). While the …
The Effect Of Fast Food Restaurants On Type 2 Diabetes Rates, Grace Bailey
The Effect Of Fast Food Restaurants On Type 2 Diabetes Rates, Grace Bailey
CMC Senior Theses
This paper conducts an analysis of county level data to determine the effect of fast food restaurants on type 2 diabetes rates. Due to endogeneity concerns with respect to the location of fast food restaurants, this paper follows the work of Dunn (2010) and uses the number of interstate exits in a given county to serve as an instrument for fast food restaurants. The strength of the instrument, which is theoretically and empirically tested in this paper, imposes some restraints on the interpretation of the findings. Using the Two-Stage Least Squares estimation method, I find that the presence of fast …
Are Volatility Expectations In Different Countries Interdependent? A Data-Driven Solution To Structural Var Identification For Implied Equity Volatility Indices, Timothy H. De Silva
Are Volatility Expectations In Different Countries Interdependent? A Data-Driven Solution To Structural Var Identification For Implied Equity Volatility Indices, Timothy H. De Silva
CMC Senior Theses
Over the past couple of decades, the number of volatility indices has increased rapidly. These indices seek to represent the market’s expectation of realized volatility over the coming month, based on the prices of options traded on each underlying equity index. Although the dynamics of realized volatility spillover have been studied extensively, very few studies exists that examine the spillover between these volatility indices. By using DAG-based structural vector autoregression, this paper provides evidence that implied volatility spillover differs from realized volatility spillover. Through solving the well-known VAR identification problem for these indices, this paper finds that Asia, more specifically …
Human Development And Subnationalism: A Disaggregated Analysis Of Indian States: Kerala And Uttar Pradesh, Manika Garg
Human Development And Subnationalism: A Disaggregated Analysis Of Indian States: Kerala And Uttar Pradesh, Manika Garg
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis investigates achievements in human development outcomes on health, education, and poverty indicators across Indian states, in order to discern what factors might influence a state’s better orientation toward social policies. After conducting data analysis, the study explains differences in outcomes, as achieved by Kerala and Uttar Pradesh, by building an argument of subnational solidarity and its impact on determining the state’s policy agendas.
Climate And Crime: Examining The Relationship Between Extreme Weather Events And Crime Rates In The United States, Erin Tully
CMC Senior Theses
This study attempts to determine whether there is a relationship between extreme weather events and crime rates. Due to the increasing effects of climate change, it is critical we understand the societal effects of extreme weather. Here, a panel data fixed effects regression was used to analyze state and year level data. It was hypothesized that there would be a relationship between crime and extreme events, but the results did not show a statistically significant relationship. Further research with increased geographic and temporal controls is encouraged.
Are Oil Prices Important To U.S. Manufacturers?, Austin Perez Schoff
Are Oil Prices Important To U.S. Manufacturers?, Austin Perez Schoff
CMC Senior Theses
Very little has been written about the effect that oil prices have on manufacturing output in the United States. This paper aims to shed light about the effect of oil prices, oil imports, and GDP on U.S. manufacturing output through a four-variable vector autoregression and explain the timing of these shocks through impulse response functions. Empirical results find that oil prices are significant in determining manufacturing output, but manufacturing output is also significant in determining oil prices.
The Real Estate And Stock Market During The Great Depression: Construction Permit Growth As A Leading Economic Indicator For Stock Returns, Will Cresap
CMC Senior Theses
The 1929 stock market crash on Black Thursday, followed by the subsequent four-year period of extreme economic downturn, signifies an extremely profound piece of U.S. history. During this time, global economic productivity – measured by GDP – decreased while the U.S. unemployment rate increased staggeringly. Leveraging construction permits as a forward-looking measure of economic activity, I empirically evaluate the effect of construction permits – specifically, the lagged growth rate of monthly construction permits – and lagged monthly stock returns on monthly Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock returns. Lagged construction permit returns and lagged stock returns provide early indications …
Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams
Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams
CMC Senior Theses
This study examines the relationship between company management guidance, and ex-ante crash risk over the duration of 2008(Jan 2006-Dec 2009) financial crisis using the implied volatility skew, which is based upon ex-ante volatility implied by the pricing model developed by Black-Scholes (1973). The study finds that over the duration of this crisis period, management guidance decreases with a rise in ex-ante crash risk. Further, the study provides evidence on the relationship of management guidance and earnings volatility, and how that is affected by a firm's industry product concentration based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score.
The Fear Factor: Determinants Of Entrepreneurial Fear Of Failure, Pema Donyo
The Fear Factor: Determinants Of Entrepreneurial Fear Of Failure, Pema Donyo
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis aims to investigate determinants of fear of failure in entrepreneurial activity that could inhibit starting a business. The study uses cross-sectional, pooled OLS, and panel regressions. The dependent variable is fear of failure regarding entrepreneurship, measured with the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) survey question of whether fear of failure would prevent the responder from starting a firm. The unit of analysis is at country level. I categorize determinants into demographic, property rights, and procedural variables. A population of higher working age ratio (measured as the population aged 15-64 divided by the population aged 65 and over) correlates with …
Quantifying The Trenches: Machine Learning Applied To Nfl Offensive Lineman Valuation, Sean Pyne
Quantifying The Trenches: Machine Learning Applied To Nfl Offensive Lineman Valuation, Sean Pyne
CMC Senior Theses
There are 32 teams in the National Football League all competing to be the best by creating the strongest roster possible. The problem of evaluating talent has created extreme competition between teams in the form of a rookie draft and a fiercely competitive veteran free agent market. The difficulty with player evaluation is due to the noise associated with measuring a particular player’s value. The intent of this paper is to create an algorithm for identifying the inefficiencies in pricing in these player markets. In particular, this paper focuses on the veteran free agent market for offensive linemen in the …