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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Estimates And Forecasts Of Garch Model Under Misspecified Probability Distributions: A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Olusanya E. Olubusoye, Oluwadare O. Ojo
Estimates And Forecasts Of Garch Model Under Misspecified Probability Distributions: A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Olusanya E. Olubusoye, Oluwadare O. Ojo
Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods
The effect of misspecification of correct sampling probability distribution of Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (GARCH) processes is considered. The three assumed distributions are the normal, Student t, and generalized error distributions. The GARCH process is sampled using one of the distributions and the model is estimated based on the three distributions in each sample. Parameter estimates and forecast performance are used to judge the estimated model for performance. The AR-GARCH-GED performed better on the three assumed distributions; even, when Student t distribution is assumed, AR-GARCH-Student t does not perform as the best model.
Specifying Asymmetric Star Models With Linear And Nonlinear Garch Innovations: Monte Carlo Approach, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Olanrewaju I. Shittu
Specifying Asymmetric Star Models With Linear And Nonlinear Garch Innovations: Monte Carlo Approach, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Olanrewaju I. Shittu
Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods
Economic and finance time series are typically asymmetric and are expected to be modeled using asymmetrical nonlinear time series models. Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models: Logistic (LSTAR) and Exponential (ESTAR) are known to be asymmetric and symmetric respectively. Under non-normal and heteroscedastic innovations, the residuals of these models are estimated using Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models with variants which include linear and nonlinear forms. The small sample properties of STAR-GARCH variants are yet to be established but these properties are investigated using Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. An MC investigation was conducted to investigate the performance of selections of STAR-GARCH …