Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Testing Maquiladora Forecast Accuracy, George Novela

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

This study examines the historical accuracy of the structural equation maquiladora forecasts generated using the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model. The eight variables that are included come from the Maquiladora block of this Model for both Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua and Chihuahua, Chihuahua. These forecasts are three year simulations that appear in the Borderplex Economic Outlook reports published from 1999 through 2006. Combined, they provide a total of 21 observations for each variable. The specific data series are total maquiladora employment, operating plants, average hourly wages, and total value added.