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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 8, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Mar 2024

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 8, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 8, Number 2, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Feb 2024

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 8, Number 2, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Regional Commercial Bank Lending To Small Businesses In The Wake Of The Great Recession, Boris D. Higgins Jan 2024

Regional Commercial Bank Lending To Small Businesses In The Wake Of The Great Recession, Boris D. Higgins

Hunt Institute Working Paper Series

The purpose of this paper is to document and explain the state by state variation in commercial bank lending to small businesses during the Great Recession. To accomplish this purpose will require several steps. These steps include showing the evidence of the variation in lending across states, the theoretical causes and the empirical findings of a capital supply gap based on market imperfections and employing OLS estimation method on carefully selected economic variables. The empirical results indicate that economic conditions, borrower characteristics and lender characteristics influence lending variation where these results can help in policy formulation.


Assessing The Impact Of Informal Sector Employment On Young Less-Educated Workers, Javier Cano-Urbina, John Gibson Jan 2024

Assessing The Impact Of Informal Sector Employment On Young Less-Educated Workers, Javier Cano-Urbina, John Gibson

Hunt Institute Working Paper Series

In this paper, we develop a search and matching model that allows for two important channels through which participation in the informal sector may benefit young less- educated workers: (i) human capital accumulation, and (ii) employer screening. We calibrate our model using the ENOE, a Mexican household survey on income and labor dynamics. Using our calibrated model, we shed light on many unobservable characteristics of the Mexican labor market for young less-educated workers, most notably the di↵ering hiring standards for informal and formal jobs. Specifically, hiring standards for these workers are found to be substantially higher for formal versus informal …


Is Inflation Caused By Conflict?, Nicolas Cachanosky, Emilio Ocampo Jan 2024

Is Inflation Caused By Conflict?, Nicolas Cachanosky, Emilio Ocampo

Hunt Institute Working Paper Series

We offer a critique of a paper recently published Lorenzoni and Werning (2023) that seeks to make an original contribution to the hypothesis that inflation is primarily caused by conflict and reconcile the Post-Keynesian and New-Keynesian traditions. L&W’s paper has two sections. In the first they develop a barter model that allows them to prove that inflation can occur with conflict and without money. In the second section they incorporate the conflict hypothesis into a broader framework compatible with New Keynesian models. We question the logical consistency and empirical validity of the barter model and the testability of the model …


Productivity Within Groups: An Analysis Of Shirking In High School Cross Country Competitions, Nathan J. Ashby Jan 2024

Productivity Within Groups: An Analysis Of Shirking In High School Cross Country Competitions, Nathan J. Ashby

Hunt Institute Working Paper Series

Using enrollment based classification realignments for high school cross country running competitions in the state of Texas, we analyze the impact of changes in the intensity of competition on individual and team performance. The analysis demonstrates significant improvement in the performance of teams promoted to more competitive classifications in the boys’ division but does not yield similar results in the girls’ division. We also analyze the impact on runners according to their rankings within teams and find improvements to be greater for runners ranking lower relative to team leaders driven by heterogeneity in motivation based on ability or the sequential …


Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 8, Number 1, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Jan 2024

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 8, Number 1, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Highlights Of The Borderplex Economic Outlook To 2025, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Jan 2024

Highlights Of The Borderplex Economic Outlook To 2025, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 27, Number 1, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Jan 2024

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 27, Number 1, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number12, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Dec 2023

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number12, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number11, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Nov 2023

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number11, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 26, Number 4, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Oct 2023

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 26, Number 4, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number10, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Oct 2023

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number10, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 9, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Sep 2023

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 9, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Business Cycle Downturn Estimation For Ciudad Juarez: 1991-2022, Steven L. Fullerton, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. Aug 2023

Business Cycle Downturn Estimation For Ciudad Juarez: 1991-2022, Steven L. Fullerton, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

Border Region Modeling Project

A monthly frequency metropolitan business cycle downturn likelihood equation is estimated for Ciudad Juarez. The binary index of economic conditions is based upon monthly IMMEX export oriented manufacturing employment. A dynamic probit methodology is used for parameter estimation. Continuous explanatory variables include a 1-year minus 1-month Mexico interest rate spread, a 2015 = 100 weighted real exchange rate index, and a 10-year minus 3-month USA interest rate spread. Parameter estimation results confirm the various hypotheses examined. However, model simulation outcomes are less favorable with the results indicating that accurate forecasting of the post-2010 business cycles may require additional refinement to …


Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 8, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Aug 2023

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 8, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 26, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton, Steven L. Fullerton Jul 2023

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 26, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton, Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 7, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Jul 2023

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 7, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 6, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Jun 2023

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 6, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 5, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton May 2023

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 5, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 4, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Apr 2023

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 4, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 26, Number 2, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Apr 2023

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 26, Number 2, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Mar 2023

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 2, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Feb 2023

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 2, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Highlights Of Borderplex Economic Outlook To 2024, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Jan 2023

Highlights Of Borderplex Economic Outlook To 2024, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Small Firm Electricity Demand In Las Cruces: 1978-2018, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Daniel J. Pastor, Michael Pokojovy, Andrew T. Yurachek Jan 2023

Small Firm Electricity Demand In Las Cruces: 1978-2018, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Daniel J. Pastor, Michael Pokojovy, Andrew T. Yurachek

Border Region Modeling Project

Research examining small commercial and industrial electricity usage patterns have historically received less attention than residential electricity consumption patterns. This study examines electricity as an input to small firm commercial and industrial (CIS) production in Las Cruces, the second largest metropolitan economy in the state of New Mexico, using annual frequency data from 1978 to 2018. Those data include labor, per capita personal income, price measures for electricity and natural gas, and weather variables. The long-run and short-run elasticities of the data are then estimated using an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). In the long-run, the CIS derived-demand curve is …


Yield Spreads And Business Cycle Downturn Predictability Across Texas, 1991-2018, Aaron Dodson Nazarian, Steven L. Fullerton, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. Jan 2023

Yield Spreads And Business Cycle Downturn Predictability Across Texas, 1991-2018, Aaron Dodson Nazarian, Steven L. Fullerton, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

Border Region Modeling Project

This study analyzes Texas state and metropolitan economic downturn predictability. Publicly available Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas dynamic factor business cycle indices are used in the analysis. Sample data cover Texas and nine of its largest metropolitan economies from January 1991 through May 2018. Dynamic autoregressive profit downturn models are estimated using the United States yield spread plus other regional and macroeconomic variables. Predictive accuracy is analyzed using in-sample model simulations. Results indicate that narrowing yield spreads, real peso appreciation, and oil price declines are generally found to increase recession likelihoods. Varying lag structures and equation specifications indicate that the …


Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 26, Number 1, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Jan 2023

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 26, Number 1, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 1, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Jan 2023

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 1, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.


Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 6, Number 12, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton Dec 2022

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 6, Number 12, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.