Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
- Keyword
-
- Applied Econometrics (4)
- Border Economics (4)
- Applied econometrics (2)
- Mexico Border (2)
- Regional Economics (2)
-
- Tolls (2)
- Archimedean copulas (1)
- Brand name medicines (1)
- Bridge Traffic (1)
- Bridges (1)
- Commercial Activity (1)
- Econometrics (1)
- Economic Stress (1)
- Economic Stress Index (1)
- Energy demand (1)
- Gasoline Consumption (1)
- International Trade (1)
- Metropolitan Business Cycle Predictability (1)
- Metropolitan economic expansion (1)
- Municipal Water Consumption; Applied Econometrics; Forecasting (1)
- Online pharmacies (1)
- Parking Meter Demand (1)
- Price dynamics (1)
- Public capital stocks (1)
- Real Exchange Rates (1)
- Residential Electricity Demand (1)
- Retail Sales (1)
- Symmetries (1)
- Time Series Analysis (1)
- Time Series Models (1)
- Publication Year
Articles 1 - 17 of 17
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Business Cycle Downturn Estimation For Ciudad Juarez: 1991-2022, Steven L. Fullerton, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.
Business Cycle Downturn Estimation For Ciudad Juarez: 1991-2022, Steven L. Fullerton, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.
Border Region Modeling Project
A monthly frequency metropolitan business cycle downturn likelihood equation is estimated for Ciudad Juarez. The binary index of economic conditions is based upon monthly IMMEX export oriented manufacturing employment. A dynamic probit methodology is used for parameter estimation. Continuous explanatory variables include a 1-year minus 1-month Mexico interest rate spread, a 2015 = 100 weighted real exchange rate index, and a 10-year minus 3-month USA interest rate spread. Parameter estimation results confirm the various hypotheses examined. However, model simulation outcomes are less favorable with the results indicating that accurate forecasting of the post-2010 business cycles may require additional refinement to …
Aggregate Online Brand Name Pharmacy Price Dynamics For The United States And Mexico, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton
Aggregate Online Brand Name Pharmacy Price Dynamics For The United States And Mexico, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton
Border Region Modeling Project
Virtual cross-border medical tourism allows many residents in the United States to purchase brand name medicines from companies in Mexico without travelling there. Monthly economic reports indicate that the online brand name pharmaceutical product prices in Mexico are noticeably lower than the corresponding internet prices in the United States. There have been very few econometric studies on how these prices are linked and the dynamic nature of those relationships. Results in this study indicate that online medicine prices in Mexico respond very rapidly to online prices changes in the high-price market.
Short-Term Household Economic Stress Effects On Retail Sales In El Paso: 2002-2019, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Patricia Arellano-Olague
Short-Term Household Economic Stress Effects On Retail Sales In El Paso: 2002-2019, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Patricia Arellano-Olague
Border Region Modeling Project
Economic stress indices are beginning to be developed as gauges of business cycle conditions for regional economies. Although the popularity of these metrics is increasing, there have been only a small number of studies that analyze the effectiveness of these tools for monitoring regional economic developments. This effort employs data for one such index that is maintained by The University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project. The sample period covers December 2002 through March 2019. Specific components of the index include inflation, unemployment, and housing prices. Estimation results indicate that the effects of any changes in economic …
Trade Clusters And Usa Southern Border Transportation Costs: 1995-2015, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Ernesto Duarte Ronquillo
Trade Clusters And Usa Southern Border Transportation Costs: 1995-2015, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Ernesto Duarte Ronquillo
Border Region Modeling Project
Fixed effects panel regression analysis is used to examine the impact of trade clusters on transportation costs along the southern border of the United States. CIF/ FOB ratios are utilized as the transportation cost measures. Grubel-Lloyd and Herfindahl- Hirschman indexes are utilized to identify trade clusters in the sample. Data are assembled for four custom districts (El Paso, Laredo, Nogales, and San Diego) during a 20-year period between 1995 and 2015. Because cross-sectional residual dependence is present, parameter estimation is carried out using Driscoll-Kraay robust standard errors. 9/11 terrorist attack effects are taken into account in the fixed effects model. …
How Can Econometrics Help Fight The Covid'19 Pandemic?, Kevin Alvarez, Vladik Kreinovich
How Can Econometrics Help Fight The Covid'19 Pandemic?, Kevin Alvarez, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
The current pandemic is difficult to model -- and thus, difficult to control. In contrast to the previous epidemics whose dynamics was smooth and well described by the existing models, the statistics of the current pandemic is highly oscillating. In this paper, we show that these oscillations can be explained if we take into account the disease's long incubation period -- as a result of which our control measures are determined by outdated data, showing number of infected people two weeks ago. To better control the pandemic, we propose to use the experience of economics, where also the effect of …
Regional Household Economic Stress And Retail Sales Fluctuations, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Ana P. Gutierrez-Zubiate
Regional Household Economic Stress And Retail Sales Fluctuations, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Ana P. Gutierrez-Zubiate
Departmental Papers (E & F)
Economic stress indices are used to monitor business cycle conditions in several regions.Although the deployment of these tools is spreading, there have been relatively few efforts to empirically assess the performance of these gauges, especially at the regional level.This study takes advantage of one such index that is published monthly and has more than 15 years of historical data.Results obtained confirm an inverse relationship between household economic duress and retail sales activity, but it is not found to be statistically reliable over the long-run.Deviations from equilibrium are found to last for 142 months.More relevantly, a 1-point increase in the index …
Preferences (Partial Pre-Orders) On Complex Numbers -- In View Of Possible Use In Quantum Econometrics, Songsak Sriboonchitta, Vladik Kreinovich, Olga Kosheleva
Preferences (Partial Pre-Orders) On Complex Numbers -- In View Of Possible Use In Quantum Econometrics, Songsak Sriboonchitta, Vladik Kreinovich, Olga Kosheleva
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
In economic application, it is desirable to find an optimal solution -- i.e., a solution which is preferable to any other possible solution. Traditionally, the state of an economic system has been described by real-valued quantities such as profit, unemployment level, etc. For such quantities, preferences correspond to natural order between real numbers: all things being equal, the more profit the better, and the smaller unemployment, the better. Lately, it turned out that to adequately describe economic phenomena, it is often convenient to use complex numbers. From this viewpoint, a natural question is: what are possible orders on complex numbers? …
Quantum Ideas In Economics Beyond Quantum Econometrics, Vladik Kreinovich, Hung T. Nguyen, Songsak Sriboonchitta
Quantum Ideas In Economics Beyond Quantum Econometrics, Vladik Kreinovich, Hung T. Nguyen, Songsak Sriboonchitta
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
It is known that computational methods developed for solving equations of quantum physics can be successfully applied to solve economic problems; there is a whole related research area called quantum econometrics. Current quantum econometrics techniques are based on a purely mathematical similarity between the corresponding equations, without any attempt to relate the underlying ideas. We believe that the fact that quantum equations can be successfully applied in economics indicates that there is a deeper relation between these areas, beyond a mathematical similarity. In this paper, we show that there is indeed a deep relation between the main ideas of …
Residential Electricity Demand In El Paso: 1977-2014, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., David R. Macias, Adam G. Walke
Residential Electricity Demand In El Paso: 1977-2014, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., David R. Macias, Adam G. Walke
Border Region Modeling Project
This study analyzes the demand for residential electricity in El Paso, Texas, USA. Annual data are provided by El Paso Electric Company covering the period from 1977 to 2014. This study reports a negative long-run income elasticity for residential electricity demand. Per customer residential electricity usage declines by 0.68 percent for every 1-percent increase in real per capita income over the long run, indicating that electricity is treated as an inferior good by households in this metropolitan economy. That result runs counter to many earlier studies, but corroborates recent empirical evidence for Seattle, Washington and other regions of the United …
Downtown Parking Meter Demand In El Paso, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., E. Pallarez, Adam G. Walke
Downtown Parking Meter Demand In El Paso, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., E. Pallarez, Adam G. Walke
Border Region Modeling Project
Prior research establishes that the price of parking in the city centre often impacts the decision to travel downtown and the mode of transportation utilized. Other factors that influence the decision to drive and park downtown have received less attention. This study uses time series data to analyse the demand for metered parking spaces in El Paso, Texas, USA. In addition to meter rates, the determinants of demand include personal income, gasoline prices, and the price of a substitute good, parking garage spaces. Because international bridges connect downtown El Paso to neighbouring Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico, the impacts of trans-boundary …
From Mean And Median Income To The Most Adequate Way Of Taking Inequality Into Account, Vladik Kreinovich, Hung T. Nguyen, Rujira Ouncharoen
From Mean And Median Income To The Most Adequate Way Of Taking Inequality Into Account, Vladik Kreinovich, Hung T. Nguyen, Rujira Ouncharoen
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
How can we compare the incomes of two different countries or regions? At first glance, it is sufficient to compare the mean incomes, but this is known to be not a very adequate comparison: according to this criterion, a very poor country with a few super-rich people may appear to be in good economic shape. A more adequate description of economy is the median income. However, the median is also not always fully adequate: e.g., raising the income of very poor people clearly improves the overall economy but does not change the median. In this paper, we use known techniques …
Tolls, Exchange Rates, And Northbound International Bridge Traffic: 1990-2006, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Angel L. Molina Jr., Adam G. Walke
Tolls, Exchange Rates, And Northbound International Bridge Traffic: 1990-2006, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Angel L. Molina Jr., Adam G. Walke
Border Region Modeling Project
Although there have been a small number of empirical studies that analyze northbound border crossings between Mexico and the United States, very few examine the potential impacts of both tolls and exchange rates on the various traffic categories. This effort attempts to partially fill that gap in the applied economics literature by modeling northbound traffic flows at one of the largest regional economies along the border. Results indicate that business cycle fluctuations, variations in the real exchange rate, and changes in real toll tariffs all influence cross border traffic volumes. Tolls on northbound traffic into the United States are assessed …
Physical Infrastructure And Economic Growth In El Paso: 1976-2009, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Azucena González Monzón, Adam G. Walke
Physical Infrastructure And Economic Growth In El Paso: 1976-2009, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Azucena González Monzón, Adam G. Walke
Border Region Modeling Project
Prior research on the impacts of public capital stocks on economic growth has generally employed either national macroeconomic or multi-jurisdictional regional data. This study attempts to contribute to this area of the discipline by utilizing time series data for a single metropolitan economy. To allow for both short-run and long-run effects, an error correction modeling framework is used for the empirical analysis. Because comprehensive public infrastructure stocks are not published for El Paso, Texas, estimates for those variables are calculated using information regarding annual public capital investment data. Estimation results indicate that physical infrastructure investment may disrupt short-run economic growth, …
Dinámica Del Consumo De Gasolina En Ciudad Juárez: 2001 - 2009, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Gabriel Múnoz Sapien, Martha Patricia Barraza De Anda, Lisbeily Domínguez Ruvalcaba
Dinámica Del Consumo De Gasolina En Ciudad Juárez: 2001 - 2009, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Gabriel Múnoz Sapien, Martha Patricia Barraza De Anda, Lisbeily Domínguez Ruvalcaba
Border Region Modeling Project
This research analyzes short-run gasoline consumption dynamics in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, México. Parameter estimation is carried out using linear transfer function ARIMA analysis. This market is of interest because it is influenced by regional, national, and international economic conditions due to its location on the border with the United States. Explanatory variables that satisfy the significance criterion include the real price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez, the price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez relative to that charged across the border in El Paso, Texas, USA, and formal sector employment in Ciudad Juárez. Sample data are for January 2001 to December …
Why Clayton And Gumbel Copulas: A Symmetry-Based Explanation, Vladik Kreinovich, Hung T. Nguyen, Songsak Sriboonchitta
Why Clayton And Gumbel Copulas: A Symmetry-Based Explanation, Vladik Kreinovich, Hung T. Nguyen, Songsak Sriboonchitta
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
In econometrics, many distributions are non-Gaussian. To describe dependence between non-Gaussian variables, it is usually not sufficient to provide their correlation: it is desirable to also know the corresponding copula. There are many different families of copulas; which family shall we use? In many econometric applications, two families of copulas have been most efficient: the Clayton and the Gumbel copulas. In this paper, we provide a theoretical explanation for this empirical efficiency, by showing that these copulas naturally follow from reasonable symmetry assumptions. This symmetry justification also allows us to provide recommendations about which families of copulas we should use …
Border Metropolitan Water Forecast Accuracy, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Angel L. Molina Jr.
Border Metropolitan Water Forecast Accuracy, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Angel L. Molina Jr.
Border Region Modeling Project
Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research due to infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary “grey literature.” This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive …
Tolls, Exchange Rates, And Borderplex Bridge Traffic, Marcycruz De Leon, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Brian W. Kelley
Tolls, Exchange Rates, And Borderplex Bridge Traffic, Marcycruz De Leon, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Brian W. Kelley
Departmental Papers (E & F)
Budget constraints are forcing many governments to consider implementing tolls as a means for financing bridge and road expenditures. Newly available time series data make it possible to analyze the impacts of toll variations and international business cycle fluctuations on cross-border bridge traffic between El Paso and Ciudad Juarez. Parameter estimation is carried out using a linear transfer function ARIMA methodology. Price elasticities of demand are similar to those reported for other regional economies, but out-of-sample forecasting results are mixed.