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Mountain Monitor - 1st Quarter 2015, Kenan Fikri, Siddharth Kulkarni

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

This analysis of employment, output, unemployment, and house prices finds that the 10 major metropolitan areas of the Mountain West, despite significant economic headwinds, weathered the first quarter of 2015 with robust economic growth. Eight of the region’s 10 major metro areas advanced on all four metrics of economic performance, and the remaining two metro areas slipped only on a single front.

The national economic slowdown that arrived in early 2015 did not entirely bypass the Mountain West, but the region resisted the drag better than any other. As U.S. economic output contracted by 0.3 percent in the first quarter, …

Mountain Monitor - 4th Quarter 2014, Kenan Fikri, Mark Muro

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

With the national economy gaining steam, the 10 major metro areas of the Mountain West ended 2014 with another quarter of strong economic performance. On the four indicators of economic vitality measured by the Mountain Monitor—employment growth, output growth, changes in unemployment, and house price growth—with only a few exceptions, every metro area registered advances on every indicator. Such widespread progress heretofore eluded the region, where recovery from the Great Recession has been characterized by unevenness.

In aggregate, the 10 Mountain metro areas ended 2014 with their fastest quarter of job growth of the year. Employment increased by 0.8 …

Mountain Monitor - 3rd Quarter 2014, Kenan Fikri, Mark Muro

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

As a group, the 10 major metro areas of the Mountain West outperformed the national economy during the third quarter of 2014 on all four indicators of economic vitality measured by the Mountain Monitor: employment growth, output growth, unemployment, and house prices. In the three months ending in September, the country’s large metropolitan areas were anticipating the rapid uptick in national economic growth that took hold at the end of 2014. Mountain region metro areas led the way.

All but two major metro areas in the region added jobs, and six did so at a faster rate than the …

Mountain Monitor - 2nd Quarter 2014, Kenan Fikri, Mark Muro

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

Economic growth returned to the 10 major metro areas of the Mountain West in the second quarter of 2014 after slippage in the first quarter of the year. The resumption of vitality progressed unevenly, however. Denver and Salt Lake City pulled ahead as the fastest-growing metro areas in the region. Ogden and Provo’s days of above-average growth appeared to be fading. Las Vegas’ economic recovery advanced strongly, but Sun Belt peers Phoenix and Tucson had more difficulty moving beyond the first quarter’s slowdown. Albuquerque, for its part, welcomed a return to employment and output growth.

Across the region’s 10 major …

Mountain Monitor - 1st Quarter 2014, Kenan Fikri, Mark Muro

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

The quarter’s Mountain Monitor finds that the rate of economic recovery in the major metropolitan areas of the Mountain West is no longer impervious to national trends.

The previous edition of the Mountain Monitor observed that the regional rate of recovery seemed to be converging toward that of the nation. This edition of the Mountain Monitor suggests that the trend has progressed further.

The rate of economic recovery broadly slowed across the region from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014, just as it did nationally. The national headlines in the first three months of the …

Mountain Monitor - 4th Quarter 2013, Kenan Fikri, Mark Muro

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

The quarter’s Mountain Monitor finds that the pace of economic recovery in the Mountain West region’s major metropolitan areas converged toward that of the rest of the nation in the last quarter of 2013.

While quarterly performance on the Monitor’s four indicators of economic recovery—employment, output, the unemployment rate, and house prices—varied considerably across the 10 major metro areas of the region, their combined performance broadly slowed to track with the rate of national economic recovery. The quarter’s average job growth remained unchanged in the region at 0.4 percent as the national economy caught up. The gap between the national …

Mountain Monitor - 3rd Quarter 2013, Kenan Fikri, Mark Muro

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

The quarter’s Mountain Monitor marks the four-year anniversary of Brookings Mountain West's quarterly tracking of the uneven pace of recovery across the major metro areas of the Intermountain West and it finds that, although the region continues to outperform the national economy the rate of recovery slowed moderately in the region’s metro areas.

As a group, Mountain region metro areas advanced on all four indicators of economic recovery tracked by the Monitor—employment, output, unemployment, and house prices—but their progress was more restrained in the third quarter of 2013 than it was in the second.

Beneath the regional headline of moderating …

Mountain Monitor - 2nd Quarter 2013, Kenan Fikri, Mark Muro

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

Economic recovery progressed steadily across the metropolitan Mountain West in the second quarter of 2013. Many of the region’s major metro areas counted among the strongest economic performers nationally, but output growth slowed over the quarter and the region‘s unemployment recovery looked to be stagnating. Moderate job growth and a fast and accelerating housing recovery buoyed the Mountain West economy in the second quarter.

Mountain Monitor-1st Quarter 2013, Kenan Fikri, Mark Muro

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

Economic recovery gained strength across the major metro areas of the Mountain West in the first quarter of 2013. Multiple metro areas achieved long-awaited full employment recoveries in the first quarter and regional production surpassed pre-recession levels of output for the first time. The region’s strong housing rebound continued to be a boon. Additionally, a special supplement to the Monitor shows that the healthcare sector has been an outsized contributor to recovery throughout the region. Despite progress on multiple fronts, though, many Mountain metro areas remain scarred with high unemployment rates, severely depressed house prices, and daunting jobs deficits.

Mountain Monitor-4th Quarter 2012, Kenan Fikri, Mark Muro

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

Indicators of economic recovery depicted continued progress in the major metropolitan areas of the Mountain West in the fourth quarter of 2012. The region’s employment recovery gained momentum, and solid home-price increases in the region contributed to the nation‘s broader housing recovery. Such inroads bode well for further advances in 2013. At the same time, the region’s output recovery slowed and unemployment refused to budge.

Mountain Monitor-3rd Quarter 2012, Mark Muro, Kenan Fikri

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

The major metropolitan areas of the Intermountain West finally put the housing bust behind them in the third quarter of 2012 and in most places made solid progress. House prices rose in all 10 major metropolitan markets in the months from June to September for the first time since the recession began. Likewise, output growth accelerated and the unemployment rate continued to fall. Unfortunately none of this prevented the region’s already feeble jobs recovery from slowing.

Mountain Monitor-2nd Quarter 2012, Mark Muro, Kenan Fikri

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

Data for the second quarter of 2012 reveal that the large metropolitan areas of the Mountain region were undergoing some of both the strongest and weakest economic recoveries in the nation—even as the pace of recovery across the region as a whole slackened. The result is a new geography. Crash-blasted Boise and Phoenix, along with Utah’s metropolitan areas, are now recovering relatively strongly while Colorado’s metropolitan areas and Albuquerque, Las Vegas, and Tucson struggle.

Mountain Monitor-1st Quarter 2012, Mark Muro, Kenan Fikri

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

For three years now the Mountain Monitor — Brookings Mountain West’s Mountain Zone variant of Brookings’ MetroMonitor — has been tracking the region’s protracted, in-most-places anemic, economic recovery. Quarter-to-quarter, the Monitor has reported on a slow healing of the region’s metropolitan economies that has differed starkly from the region’s past boom-bust cycles.

Mountain Monitor-4th Quarter 2011, Mark Muro, Kenan Fikri

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

Recovery was firmly underway in the Intermountain West by the fourth quarter of 2011 but its pace varied considerably across the region’s 10 major metropolitan areas. Six of the 10 metros saw job growth in the fourth quarter but only four saw it accelerate over the previous one. Output grew everywhere but only in half of the region’s metros did the pace of growth quicken. The unemployment rate was down across the board from one year earlier. House prices in most markets stabilized. Yet signs of a robust, sustained, and self-fueling recovery remained elusive.

National economic indicators from early 2012 …

Mountain Monitor-3rd Quarter 2011, Mark Muro, Kenan Fikri

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

Economic recovery in the Intermountain West’s major metropolitan areas edged forward in the third quarter of 2011, after idling for much of the year. Nationally, high technology and automotive-oriented metros showed the strongest signs of recovery; in the Intermountain West, manufacturing-intensive and technology-oriented metros had the strongest quarter. Employment and output grew in most metropolitan areas, and the unemployment rate fell throughout the region. At the same time, the housing market freefall came to an end—or at least paused—across most of the region, as home prices ticked upwards for the first time since the Monitor began tracking recession and recovery. …

Mountain Monitor-2nd Quarter 2011, Mark Muro, Kenan Fikri

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

Data through the second quarter of 2011 raise new questions about the pace and certainty of recovery in the Intermountain West. Even places like Denver, Colorado Springs, and Ogden—which only suffered mild setbacks in the early quarters of the recession—have stagnated in the wake of the nation’s worst economic slump since the Great Depression. Output and employment increased hesitantly in eight of the 10 major metros of the Intermountain West in the second quarter while the housing market slumped to new lows everywhere.

Mountain Monitor-4th Quarter 2010, Kenan Fikri, Jonathan Rothwell

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

The metros of the Intermountain West largely fell into two categories by the close of the fourth quarter of 2010 in December: those consolidating their gains from previous quarters on the way to recovery and those still struggling to turn around appreciably and reposition themselves for the next economy. Along those lines, three Intermountain West metros ranked in the top quintile of performers and three in the bottom at year’s end on a measure of overall performance that takes into account changes in employment levels, the unemployment rate, output (gross metropolitan product or GMP), and housing prices since the beginning …

Mountain Monitor-3rd Quarter 2010, Jonathan Rothwell, Kenan Fikri

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

One year after the Mountain Monitor began tracking recession and recovery in the Intermountain West, the Southern Nevada economy has yet to turn around. The rate of slippage across a range of indicators has slowed measurably, but evidence of a nascent recovery eludes. Las Vegas' poor relative performance over the past year can be attributed not only to the legacy of a particularly devastating initial wave of economic distress, but also to a continued struggle to slow and reverse the downward trend.

Mountain Monitor-2nd Quarter 2010, Jonathan Rothwell, Kenan Fikri

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

The Intermountain West exemplifies the peculiarities of the Great Recession and its subsequently fragile and protracted recovery. Where pre-recession growth in employment and housing prices was fastest, employment losses and housing price declines have been the most severe—in Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Boise most starkly. The profundity of the recession and sluggishness of the recovery have ensured that no metro in the region escaped unscathed, however, and in the second quarter even the best performers fell on some indicators. Perhaps most significantly for the region, housing prices are unlikely to keep falling much further. An analysis by Howard Wial and …

Mountain Monitor-1st Quarter 2010, Mark Muro, Jonathan Rothwell, Kenan Fikri

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

Where are the jobs? That anxious question pervading national discussions of the Great Recession and its aftermath is becoming acute in the Intermountain West. Not only has the region’s usual faster-than-the-nation employment snapback after recessions failed to materialize this time around. What is more, the Mountain region’s halting economic recovery in some ways actually weakened in the first three months of 2010 as reports this new edition of the Mountain Monitor, a quarterly report produced by Brookings Mountain West, a partnership between Brookings and the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV), and a companion product to Brookings national MetroMonitor. Drawing …

Mountain Monitor-4th Quarter 2009, Mark Muro, Jonathan Rothwell

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

The Mountain West’s recovery from the Great Recession is spreading. Output is growing in every metropolitan area. Still, hiring remains elusive—a fact frustrating the entire nation, but perhaps more so in a region used to snapping, even roaring, back from recessions faster than the rest of the nation. Drawing on data covering the fourth quarter of 2009 (ending in December), this new Mountain Monitor—a companion product to Brookings’ national MetroMonitor and a quarterly resource produced by Brookings Mountain West, a partnership between Brookings and the University of Nevada at Las Vegas—surveys a region that is at once recovering and still …

Mountain Monitor-3rd Quarter 2009, Brookings Mountain West

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

Nationwide, the recession is technically over. Or at least that is the view of most economists. They note that real U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) finally expanded in the third quarter of 2009, growing at a 2.8 percent annual rate after four consecutive quarters of contraction. They point to a significant slowing of job losses in November, rising housing prices, and a slight downtick in unemployment as other positive signs. Their conclusion: Economic recovery is at last underway. And yet, the pace of renewal seems tentative and its geography patchy. Most notably, the aggregate national story of recovery and expansion …