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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

The Year In Review: 2007 Marks Start Of Slowdown, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jan 2008

The Year In Review: 2007 Marks Start Of Slowdown, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

The state’s economy slowed moderately in 2007, the beginning of a slowdown that may last several years. The deceleration was precipitated by a downturn in the housing market that, in Massachusetts, began in late 2005, and gained downward momentum in 2006. Last summer, fi nancial havoc from sub-prime mortgage defaults and falling prices throughout most of the nation tipped the nation’s economy to the brink of recession. This year, soaring energy prices threaten to weigh down the economy further, neutralizing the fi scal stimulus package that is coming on line now.


National Woes Test Bay State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jan 2008

National Woes Test Bay State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

Economic growth is slowing, and is projected to continue to decelerate into the second half of 2008, and then to rebound moderately. The slowdown is directly related to the impact of the declining housing market, the sub-prime mortgage shakeout in the finance sector, and the high cost of heating oil and gasoline. Credit tightening is threatening to curtail business activity and the solvency of investors and households involved in sub-prime lending or borrowing. High energy prices are reducing non-energy consumer spending. The impact of the declining housing market has already affected the state’s economy. Massachusetts is experiencing declines in housing …


2007'S Housing Market: Not Yet Recovering From Recent Ills, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jan 2007

2007'S Housing Market: Not Yet Recovering From Recent Ills, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

The Massachusetts economy is currently on a trajectory that is similar to that of the national economy, at least as measured in the aggregate. During the second quarter of the calendar year, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.4 percent. During the same period, the Massachusetts economy grew at 3.6 percent annual rate of growth, down from a strong 4.1 percent rate in the first quarter. The state’s economy is being pulled in two directions. On the upside, strong demand for the state’s technology, science, knowledge, and health-based goods and services is creating good job and income …


Fueled By Technology Market Demand, Massachusetts Economic Growth Increases, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jan 2006

Fueled By Technology Market Demand, Massachusetts Economic Growth Increases, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

The pace of economic growth in Massachusetts has picked up significantly, beginning in the fourth quarter of last year, reflecting improved worldwide markets for information technology equipment in the last half of 2005. This resurgence in technology markets helped reverse a deceleration in state economic growth that the state experienced between mid-2004 and the third quarter of 2005. The Massachusetts economy has performed better over the last six months than at any time since the current expansion began in the second quarter of 2003. The recent pace of expansion matched the long-term average growth in real gross state product of …


Look For Little Growth In The First Half Of 2006, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jan 2006

Look For Little Growth In The First Half Of 2006, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

The state’s economy remains stuck in slow gear, and may no longer even be moving forward. In the face of slow employment growth, a population and brain drain, a sharp spike in energy costs, volatile consumer confidence, housing prices that are clearly cooling, increasing federal budget deficits, trade deficits and rising interest rates, perhaps it’s good news that the economy has been able to grow at all.


2006 Year In Review: Slow And Steady Does It For 2006, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jan 2006

2006 Year In Review: Slow And Steady Does It For 2006, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

The state’s economy continued to expand in 2006, continuing a path of slow, steady growth that began in 2003. By most measures, such as employment, output, labor force, and population growth, it was the best year so far of the recovery, but not by much; and the pace of expansion has been much slower than that of the two prior ones of the 1990s and 1980s. Weighing on the economic accomplishments of the year was a decline in the housing market and a rise in unemployment of the state’s residents, setting the stage for a likely slowing of growth in …


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jan 2005

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

The Massachusetts economy is recovering, but at a relatively slow pace that is consistent with the state’s experience coming out of the last recession. Job creation continues to lag, and the Commonwealth faces continuing economic challenges, including strengthening the technology sector and addressing worker migration.


A Groundhog Day Economy In The Bay State, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jan 2005

A Groundhog Day Economy In The Bay State, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

The Bay State’s economic expansion peaked in December 2000, when the MassBenchmarks Current Economic Index, which is a proxy for gross state product, reached 150.2. But even before reaching that peak, warning signs were on the horizon. The MassBenchmarks Leading Economic Index, which forecasts changes in gross state product six months hence, turned negative in November 2000 and, except for one month, stayed negative for a year. The Current Index did not rise again until April 2003 and since then has risen at a stubbornly slow pace. While there have been eight successive quarters of growth in the Current Index, …


Massachusetts Recovery Stronger Than First Thought, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jan 2005

Massachusetts Recovery Stronger Than First Thought, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

Massachusetts is still in the early stages of the recovery that began in the spring of 2003, but it may still be a couple of years more before it feels as if the recession is finally over. That “feel good” time will come only when unemployment is low enough for the state to achieve what economists call “full employment.” Currently, recent employment estimates from the payroll survey suggest that demand for the products and services supplied by Massachusetts producers is finally outstripping the ability of employers to meet that demand with existing employees. The result is that payroll employment is …


Sailing Into A Strong Future: The Massachusetts Marine Science And Technology Industry, Clyde Barrow, Rebecca Loveland, David Terkla Jan 2005

Sailing Into A Strong Future: The Massachusetts Marine Science And Technology Industry, Clyde Barrow, Rebecca Loveland, David Terkla

Economics Faculty Publication Series

With its focus on high-technology, value-added markets, the Bay State’s marine science and technology cluster and its diverse range of companies keeps expanding into high-end markets.


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jan 2004

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

While the Federal Reserve Board can be “patient” in raising interest rates—“patient” is their descriptive term for their outlook on interest-rate policy—workers have had to be patient in waiting for jobs to return. The past year has exhibited a dichotomy between the product and the labor markets. While GDP, manufacturing output, corporate profits, and stock prices have soared, labor markets have languished. By some measures, this dichotomy has been even more pronounced in Massachusetts. The Bloomberg stock index for Massachusetts, for example, outperformed the national NASDAQ, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 indexes, even while employment continued to decline. The relative …


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jan 2004

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

Business is looking up in Massachusetts: Buoyed by the state’s high-technology industry, sales, profits, and exports are all showing growth. Housing starts and consumer spending also grew strongly in the second quarter. Employment rates and the jobs market are another story: Growth of employment in Massachusetts has lagged that of the nation, and only began to pick up early in 2004, whereas the nation’s job turnaround began last summer. Nonetheless, consumer confidence remains strong, as the wages and salaries of those who are employed are rising. If this recovery mimics the last cycle of this kind, job growth will accelerate …


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Oct 2003

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

Over the course of the summer, the Massachusetts economy appears to have begun to turn the corner. In the first quarter of this year, gross state product, as measured by the current index for Massachusetts, experienced its ninth consecutive quarter of decline. In the second quarter, it was flat, and in the third quarter, managed to eke out a small gain, growing at an annualized rate of 0.4 percent. The shift in direction is being led by a recovery in demand for, and production of, technology products that began at the end of 2002, and has continued to gather momentum …


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jul 2003

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

The state economy appears poised for future growth, but serious issues remain. The “unwinding” of the economic excesses of the 1990s is delaying a genuine economic turnaround, but many other issues are weighing heavily on the economy. These include the risk of terrorism, weak global economic performance, a weak dollar (this issues cuts two ways), and the threat of deflation. When a recovery arrives, job growth will probably lag, and be modest when it appears. We should not expect to return to the heady days of the late 1990s anytime soon.


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jan 2003

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

Statewide numbers paint a picture of declining employment and output, continuing widespread layoffs, slow wage and income growth, rapidly declining consumer confidence, weak consumer spending, stagnant tax revenues, high vacancy rates in the commercial real estate market, and no clear sign of growth in demand for the state’s technology products.


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Oct 2002

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

Massachusetts is still in a recession. Forecasts made earlier in the year — that the state economy would be experiencing modest growth by now — have been revised. Instead, it continues to contract. Joining long-suffering sectors such as technology and manufacturing, finance and state government are now making employment cuts. Even consumers, whose continued spending has been a last stronghold of the state economy, are showing signs of distress. Will the Commonwealth follow the nation on the road to recovery, or is our trajectory taking us elsewhere?


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jul 2002

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

While no longer contracting, the Massachusetts economy has not yet turned the corner, either. Delays in the recovery of the technology sector, along with state government fiscal problems, have offset modest expansion in health, education, and residential real estate. But consumer confidence and spending, buoyed by low interest rates and rising home equity, have been making up for weak business capital spending. Could slow growth be just ahead?


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Apr 2002

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

The Commonwealth’s economy appears to have bottomed out and may already have started to expand. The Massachusetts Leading Economic Index for February forecasts that real gross state product will grow at an annualized rate of 1.8 percent through August. This is the fourth consecutive positive reading. Furthermore, the current economic index has remained steady for three months in a row.


A Tale Of Two Decades: Changes In Work And Earnings In Massachusetts, 1979–1999, Randy Albelda, Marlene Kim Apr 2002

A Tale Of Two Decades: Changes In Work And Earnings In Massachusetts, 1979–1999, Randy Albelda, Marlene Kim

Economics Faculty Publication Series

Over the past twenty years, Massachusetts has replaced the mantle of old-style manufacturing with a robust “new economy.” Our economic vitality has never been better. But not all individuals benefited from the 1990s boom as they had from the one a decade earlier. Some of our residents are worse off than they were before.


Medical Devices: A Stronghold Of The Commonwealth's Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jan 2002

Medical Devices: A Stronghold Of The Commonwealth's Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

We benefit from medical devices throughout our lives: Prenatal development is monitored by ultrasound devices, sports injuries are diagnosed with magnetic resonance imaging and fixed with arthroscopic tools, and heart blockages are cleared with angioplasties and drug-coated stents. Devices include the simple and mundane—eyeglasses and thermometers—and stretch to the boundaries of technology—laser scalpels, needles embedded with microprocessors, MRI machines, and artificial hearts. All are products of the medical device industry. Massachusetts is one of the nation’s leading states in medical device development and production.


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jan 2002

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

It all seems clear in hindsight: The national recession began last March and the state recession in December 2000. The difference in timing reflects the importance of technology production and the stock market to the Massachusetts economy.


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Oct 2001

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

Aggregate economic activity in Massachusetts during the first half of the year slowed to a halt, with declines in manufacturing offset by continued expansion in the rest of the economy. The Massachusetts economy appears to be weaker than that of the nation and may even have contracted during the second quarter.


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jul 2001

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

Pain and anxiety are accompanying the news of an economy that has not grown since December. The Massachusetts Current Economic Index, a proxy for real gross state product growth, was actually lower in April than it was at the end of last year, and it is only 1.5 percent greater than in April 2000.


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Apr 2001

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

The recession watch is on. The outlook for Massachusetts in 2001 is uncertain, and the downside risks appear to be gaining momentum. What was a favorable industry mix in 2000 may turn out to be unfavorable in 2001, if emerging signs of a worldwide decline in demand for technology products are realized. The chances of a downturn have not been higher in a decade.


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jan 2001

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

While the state’s economy is still growing, albeit at a much slower rate than in the 1990s, there is a risk of a serious deceleration of economic activity. The evidence we have still favors a “soft landing” for the economy, but the risks of recession appear to have risen substantially.


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Oct 2000

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

Between June 1999 and July 2000, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate six times, for a total increase of 175 basis points. For this and other reasons, the national — and state — ␣economies appear to be growing at a slower rate.


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jul 2000

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

The Massachusetts economy has not fully caught up with the news that labor shortages are constraining growth. Real gross state product (GSP), as proxied by the Massachusetts Current Economic Index, grew at an annualized rate of 4.3 percent in the first quarter of 2000, only moderately below the 5.4 percent pace of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). Employment-related measures over the twelve-month period ending in April bear this out. The number of employed Massachusetts residents increased by 1.3 percent, and the number of jobs in the state grew by 2.1 percent, matching the expansion-average annual rate of job growth. Employment …


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Apr 2000

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

The Massachusetts economy continued to create new jobs in 1999, despite tight labor markets. While there were only 1.6 percent more jobs in December 1999 than there were a year earlier, this is an impressive performance, considering that the working-age population has been growing by only one-half of one percent per annum for several years, and the unemployment rate averaged just 3.2 percent for the last two years.


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Jan 2000

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

The economy is slowing, as it continues to be constrained by labor shortages. Inflationary pressures are present in labor and housing markets, and consumer spending is strong. Fed policy may keep inflation from getting out of hand in the short run. In the long run, however, Massachusetts needs to speed up the growth of its skilled labor force. Minorities and low-skilled workers, who until recently had been largely unaffected by the expansion, are now benefiting from tight labor markets.


Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Oct 1999

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

In the midst of continuing economic growth, we are seeing signs of a possible future slowdown in the Commonwealth’s economy. June’s Leading Economic Index for Massachusetts was down nearly a percentage point from its May level, and consumer confidence fell moderately in the same month. In the labor market, there is evidence that inflationary pressures may be building.