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Syracuse University

Center for Policy Research

1999

Articles 1 - 16 of 16

Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Shrinking Kin Networks In Italy Due To Sustained Low Fertility, Cecilia Tomassini, Douglas A. Wolf Dec 1999

Shrinking Kin Networks In Italy Due To Sustained Low Fertility, Cecilia Tomassini, Douglas A. Wolf

Center for Policy Research

Among the closely watched demographic trends of the late 20th Century is a pronounced drop in fertility rates throughout much of the world. Italy presents a particularly interesting case for study: in 1960, Italy’s total fertility rate (TFR) was 2.41; by 1995 it had fallen to 1.17. According to United Nations projections, by 2050 Italy will be the second oldest country in the world, with 3.4 persons aged 60 or older for each person under age 15. Besides overall population aging, another implication of sustained low fertility is smaller families and kin groups. We investigate the consequences of projected changes …

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Demographics Of The Gay And Lesbian Population In The United States: Evidence From Available Systematic Date Sources, Dan Black, Gary Gates, Seth Sanders, Lowell Taylor Oct 1999

Demographics Of The Gay And Lesbian Population In The United States: Evidence From Available Systematic Date Sources, Dan Black, Gary Gates, Seth Sanders, Lowell Taylor

Center for Policy Research

There are thousands of studies on the gay and lesbian population. Because of the difficulty of sampling this population, most studies have used “convenience samples” for analysis. Until recently, it was extremely rare that survey data on gays and lesbians were collected from a known sampling frame, and equally rare that the same survey instrument was fielded to the gay and lesbian population and to a comparison group of other men and women. Comparative analysis of the gay and lesbian population has thus been difficult, and researchers have been properly reluctant to draw general inferences from available samples of gays …

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Employee-Based Versus Employer-Based Subsidies To Low-Wage Workers: A Public Finance Perspective, Stacy Dickert-Conlin, Douglas Holtz-Eakin Apr 1999

Employee-Based Versus Employer-Based Subsidies To Low-Wage Workers: A Public Finance Perspective, Stacy Dickert-Conlin, Douglas Holtz-Eakin

Center for Policy Research

We revisit the relative merits of employee-based versus employer-based labor market subsidies. While conventional analyses stress the equivalence of these approaches, we find a modest preference for employee-based approaches. Because the population of low-wage workers overlaps, but is not identical to, the populations of low-skill or low-income workers, simple employer-based approaches are likely to be poorly targeted. Targeting may be improved by identification of eligible workers, but identification itself raises the possibility of detrimental stigma associated with the program. When combined with lower participation rates among firms than among households, the size of employer-based subsidies needed to match the outcome …

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Exploring The Effect Of Welfare Reform Implementation On The Attainment Of Policy Goals: An Examination Of Michigan's Counties, Jodi Sandfort Apr 1999

Exploring The Effect Of Welfare Reform Implementation On The Attainment Of Policy Goals: An Examination Of Michigan's Counties, Jodi Sandfort

Center for Policy Research

This paper presents a cross-sectional examination of the implementation conditions within Michigan during the first year following the passage of federal welfare reform. It asks the question, “Do implementation factors in the welfare system quantitatively influence the achievement of public policy goals?” Drawing on data from 82 counties, this analysis provides an exploratory, multivariate model that controls for environmental factors outside of the influence of program implementers and examines the effects of macro- and micro-implementation conditions on an outcome desired by policy reforms. The results suggest that implementation factors do have a statistically discernible relationship to proportion of a county’s …

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Stability And Change In The Living Arrangements Of Older Italian Women, 1990-1995, Cecilia Tomassini, Douglas A. Wolf Apr 1999

Stability And Change In The Living Arrangements Of Older Italian Women, 1990-1995, Cecilia Tomassini, Douglas A. Wolf

Center for Policy Research

In this work we analyze the living arrangements of elderly unmarried women in Italy. We use data from three surveys, collected in 1990, 1994, and 1995 by the Italian statistical agency ISTAT. We consider unmarried women aged 65 and older, and three household types (living alone, with children, or with others), taking into account the availability of children with whom they might share a household. During this period the percentage of elderly living alone fell slightly. We investigate these patterns with a structural analysis based on multinomial models. Results indicate that some individual variables (living in southern Italy, health status) …

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Estimating The Income Effect On Retirement, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, David Joulfaian, Harvey S. Rosen Apr 1999

Estimating The Income Effect On Retirement, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, David Joulfaian, Harvey S. Rosen

Center for Policy Research

One of the most important issues in the debate over Social Security is how various changes in the system would change retirement behavior. A critical parameter in this context is the income effect on retirement— how a change in income affects retirement behavior, ceteris paribus. To estimate the income effect, we examine tax-return generated data on the labor force activity of a group of older people before and after they receive inheritances. The results are consistent with the notion that income effects are small. Neither retirement decisions nor the magnitude of earnings conditional on working seem to be affected very …

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A Time-Series Econometric Model Of The Upstate New York Economy, Donald H. Dutkowsky, James Follain, Seth Giertz Mar 1999

A Time-Series Econometric Model Of The Upstate New York Economy, Donald H. Dutkowsky, James Follain, Seth Giertz

Center for Policy Research

The purpose of the research described in this report is to produce an econometric model of the Upstate New York economy and two metropolitan areas within it—Albany and Syracuse. The model is intended to satisfy three main criteria. First, the model should be capable of capturing the dynamic nature of the local economy. This simply reflects the widely held belief that the local economy’s response to various external forces and policies is unlikely to be immediate. Second, the model ought to be capable of generating short-run forecasts. In particular, quarterly forecasts for one or two years are preferred to long-run …

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Testing The Stability Of A Production Function With Urbanization As A Shift Factor: An Application Of Non-Stationary Panel Data Techniques, Suzanne Mccoskey, Chihwa Kao Jan 1999

Testing The Stability Of A Production Function With Urbanization As A Shift Factor: An Application Of Non-Stationary Panel Data Techniques, Suzanne Mccoskey, Chihwa Kao

Center for Policy Research

Urban economists have long sought to explain the relationship between urbanization levels and output. In this paper we revisit this question and test the long-run stability of a production function with urbanization using non-stationary panel data techniques. Our results show that a long-run relationship between urbanization output per worker and capital per worker cannot be rejected for either our sample of 30 developing countries or our sample of 22 developed countries. In addition, we estimate the long-run average effects on GDPW of urbanization and capital. These results offer newer insights and potential for dynamic urban models than the simple cross-section …

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Relative Cohort Size: Source Of A Unifying Theory Of Global Fertility Transition, Diane J. Macunovich Jan 1999

Relative Cohort Size: Source Of A Unifying Theory Of Global Fertility Transition, Diane J. Macunovich

Center for Policy Research

Using United Nations estimates of age structure and vital rates for nearly 200 nations at five-year intervals from 1950 through 1995, this paper demonstrates how changes in relative cohort size appear to have affected patterns of fertility across nations since 1950--not just in developed countries, but perhaps even more importantly in countries as they pass through the demographic transition. The increase in relative cohort size (defined as the proportion of the population aged 15 to 24 relative to that aged 25 to 59) which occurs as a result of declining mortality rates among children and young adults during the demographic …

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Geography, Industrial Organization, And Agglomeration, Stuart S. Rosenthal, William C. Strange Jan 1999

Geography, Industrial Organization, And Agglomeration, Stuart S. Rosenthal, William C. Strange

Center for Policy Research

This paper makes two contributions to the empirical literature on agglomeration economies. First, the paper uses a unique and rich database in conjunction with mapping software to measure the geographic extent and nature of agglomerative externalities. Previous papers have been forced to assume that agglomeration economies are club goods that operate at a metropolitan scale. Second, the paper tests for the existence of organizational agglomeration economies of the kind studied qualitatively by Saxenian (1994). This is a potentially important source of increasing returns that previous empirical work has not considered. Results indicate that localization economies attenuate rapidly and that industrial …

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Cash Constraints And Business Start-Ups: Deutschmarks Versus Dollars, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Harvey Rosen Jan 1999

Cash Constraints And Business Start-Ups: Deutschmarks Versus Dollars, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Harvey Rosen

Center for Policy Research

In this paper we analyze microdata to explore differences in the rates at which American and German workers leave their salaried jobs to become self-employed. We document that the rate of self-employment is lower in Germany than in the U.S., and the rate of transition from wage-earning to self-employment is lower as well. We find evidence that German workers face liquidity constraints that are more severe than those of their American counterparts. Further, the difference in transition rates cannot be attributed to observable differences between German and American workers.

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The Fortune Of One's Birth: Relative Cohort Size And The Youth Labor Market In The United States, Diane J. Macunovich Jan 1999

The Fortune Of One's Birth: Relative Cohort Size And The Youth Labor Market In The United States, Diane J. Macunovich

Center for Policy Research

Using two different measures of relative cohort size--one indicating the size and placement of an individual's own birth cohort, and the other the ratio of young to prime-age adults in the United States in that year--it has been possible to isolate strong effects of the population age structure on wages in the United States over the past 33 years. These effects have been strong enough that virtually all of the observed change in the experience premium, and a substantial proportion of the changes in the college wage premium, can be explained by the relative cohort size variables alone. Even changes …

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The Baby Boom As It Ages: How Has It Affected Patterns Of Consumptions And Savings In The United States?, Diane J. Macunovich Jan 1999

The Baby Boom As It Ages: How Has It Affected Patterns Of Consumptions And Savings In The United States?, Diane J. Macunovich

Center for Policy Research

Using detailed estimates of personal consumption expenditures at the state level for 1900, 1929, 1970, and 1982 developed by Stanley Lebergott, this paper demonstrates that the passage of the Baby Boom from childhood through the teen years and into family formation would have caused market swings in patterns of aggregate consumption and savings in the United States during the past 50 years. The effect of age structure on personal consumption expenditures is estimated using population by single year of age from 0 to 85, revealing the expected pattern of life cycle consumption and savings in the adult years. In addition, …

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The Role Of Relative Cohort Size And Relative Income In The Demographic Transition, Diane J. Macunovich Jan 1999

The Role Of Relative Cohort Size And Relative Income In The Demographic Transition, Diane J. Macunovich

Center for Policy Research

This paper summarizes the results of other analyses by the author with regard to the importance of relative cohort size (RCS) in determining male relative income (the income of young adults relative to prime-age workers) and general patterns of economic growth, and in turn influencing fertility in the currently more-developed nations. It then goes on to demonstrate that these same effects appear to have been operating in all of the 100-odd nations which have experienced the fertility transition since 1950. Parameter estimates based on the experience of all 189 countries identified by the United Nations between 1950 and 1995 are …

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Helping The Working Poor: Employer- Vs. Employee-Based Subsidies, Stacy Dickert-Conlin, Douglas Holtz-Eakin Jan 1999

Helping The Working Poor: Employer- Vs. Employee-Based Subsidies, Stacy Dickert-Conlin, Douglas Holtz-Eakin

Center for Policy Research

In the United States and Europe there has been renewed interest in subsidizing firms that employ disadvantaged workers as a means of addressing poverty and other social problems. In contrast, the prevailing practice is largely to provide social welfare benefits directly to individuals. Which approach is better? We re-examine the relative merits of employee- versus employer-based labor market subsidies and conclude there are good reasons to continue to rely on the direct, employee-based approach. In practice, low-wage workers are seldom either low-skill or low-income workers. Furthermore, workers who might quality for a firm-based subsidy are reluctant to so identify themselves …

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Social Protection For The Poor In The Developed World: The Evidence From Lis, Timothy Smeeding, Katherine Ross Jan 1999

Social Protection For The Poor In The Developed World: The Evidence From Lis, Timothy Smeeding, Katherine Ross

Center for Policy Research

This paper presents data and analysis on the antipoverty effectiveness of safety nets in eight rich nations using data from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS). We find that national safety nets are quite varied and that the most expensive ones (in terms of budgetary cost) are also the most effective. The paper concludes with some suggestions for the construction of effective safety nets in developing nations.

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