Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Fallibility And Sequential Decision-Making, Winston T. H. Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

Individuals typically make errors in evaluating information. In this paper, we consider a project selection problem, where fallible managers screen projects sequentially, and provide independent opinions on its quality. We compare the relative performance of the hierarchy and polyarchy when η (n > 2) managers are employed to evaluate projects. In addition to generalizing the existing results on the optimal screening standards, I discuss and characterize the optimal organizational size, and how the relative desirability of the two sequential decision processes are affected by changing the project quality. Finally, I also discuss the effect of variable evaluation costs on the optimal …