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Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
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Articles 1 - 9 of 9
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
On The Trajectory Of Discrimination: A Meta-Analysis And Forecasting Survey Capturing 44 Years Of Field Experiments On Gender And Hiring Decisions, Michael Schaerer, Christilene Du Plessis, My Hoang Nguyen, Robbie C. M. Van Aert, Leo Tiokkin, Daniel Lakens, Elena G. Clemente, Thomas Pfeiffer, Anna Dreber, Magnus Johannesson, Cory J. Clark
On The Trajectory Of Discrimination: A Meta-Analysis And Forecasting Survey Capturing 44 Years Of Field Experiments On Gender And Hiring Decisions, Michael Schaerer, Christilene Du Plessis, My Hoang Nguyen, Robbie C. M. Van Aert, Leo Tiokkin, Daniel Lakens, Elena G. Clemente, Thomas Pfeiffer, Anna Dreber, Magnus Johannesson, Cory J. Clark
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
A preregistered meta-analysis, including 244 effect sizes from 85 field audits and 361,645 individual job applications, tested for gender bias in hiring practices in female-stereotypical and gender-balanced as well as male-stereotypical jobs from 1976 to 2020. A “red team” of independent experts was recruited to increase the rigor and robustness of our meta-analytic approach. A forecasting survey further examined whether laypeople (n = 499 nationally representative adults) and scientists (n = 312) could predict the results. Forecasters correctly anticipated reductions in discrimination against female candidates over time. However, both scientists and laypeople overestimated the continuation of bias against female candidates. …
Insights Into Accuracy Of Social Scientists' Forecasts Of Societal Change, Igor Grossma, Andree Hartanto, Nadyanna M. Majeed, Et Al See Comments For Full List Of Authors
Insights Into Accuracy Of Social Scientists' Forecasts Of Societal Change, Igor Grossma, Andree Hartanto, Nadyanna M. Majeed, Et Al See Comments For Full List Of Authors
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. Following provision of historical trend data on the domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N=86 teams/359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts based on new data six months later (Tournament 2; N=120 teams/546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social …
Crowdsourcing Hypothesis Tests: Making Transparent How Design Choices Shape Research Results, Justin F. Landy, Miaolei Jia, Isabel L. Ding, Domenico Viganola, Warren Tierney, Andree Hartanto
Crowdsourcing Hypothesis Tests: Making Transparent How Design Choices Shape Research Results, Justin F. Landy, Miaolei Jia, Isabel L. Ding, Domenico Viganola, Warren Tierney, Andree Hartanto
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
To what extent are research results influenced by subjective decisions that scientists make as they design studies? Fifteen research teams independently designed studies to answer five original research questions related to moral judgments, negotiations, and implicit cognition. Participants from two separate large samples (total N > 15,000) were then randomly assigned to complete one version of each study. Effect sizes varied dramatically across different sets of materials designed to test the same hypothesis: materials from different teams rendered statistically significant effects in opposite directions for four out of five hypotheses, with the narrowest range in estimates being d = -0.37 to …
Uncertain Skies: Forecasting Typhoons In Hong Kong Ca. 1874-1906, Fiona Williamson
Uncertain Skies: Forecasting Typhoons In Hong Kong Ca. 1874-1906, Fiona Williamson
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
This paper explores the conceptualisation of «uncertainty» in late nineteenth- century meteorological thought. By investigating the story of meteorological forecasting in nineteenth and early twentieth century Hong Kong, it considers the changing ways in which forecasting was judged historically. In the early nineteenth century forecasting the weather was considered impossible. By the end of the century, it was confidently expected that the much improved understanding of weather patterns would lead to the ability to better predict them. During the intervening period «uncertainty» competed with «certainty» and «prediction» was mistaken for «predictability». The shift in perception was driven by various factors, …
Analyzing And Forecasting Business Cycles In A Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Analyzing And Forecasting Business Cycles In A Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Research Collection School Of Economics
A dynamic factor model is applied to a large panel dataset of Singapore’s macroeconomic variables and global economic indicators with the initial objective of analysing business cycles in a small open economy. The empirical results suggest that four common factors – which can broadly be interpreted as world, regional, electronics and domestic economic cycles – capture a large proportion of the co-variation in the quarterly time series. The estimated factor model also explains well the observed fluctuations in real economic activity and price inflation, leading us to use it in forecasting Singapore’s business cycles. We find that the forecasts generated …
Analyzing And Forecasting Business Cycles In A Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Analyzing And Forecasting Business Cycles In A Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Research Collection School Of Economics
A dynamic factor model is applied to a large panel dataset of Singapore’s macroeconomic variables and global economic indicators with the initial objective of analyzing business cycles in a small open economy. The empirical results suggest that four common factors are present in the quarterly time series, which can broadly be interpreted as world, regional, electronics and domestic economic cycles. The estimated factor model explains well the observed fluctuations in real economic activity and price inflation, leading us to use it in forecasting Singapore’s business cycles. We find that the forecasts generated by the factors are generally more accurate than …
Financial Variables As Predictors Of Real Output Growth, Anthony S. Tay
Financial Variables As Predictors Of Real Output Growth, Anthony S. Tay
Research Collection School Of Economics
We investigate two methods for using daily stock returns to forecast, and update forecasts of, quarterly real output growth. Both methods aggregate daily returns in some manner to form a single stock market variable. We consider (i) augmenting the quarterly AR(1) model for real output growth with daily returns using a nonparametric Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) setting, and (ii) augmenting the quarterly AR(1) model with the most recent r -day returns as an additional predictor. We discover that adding low frequency stock returns (up to annual returns, depending on forecast horizon) to a quarterly AR(1) model improves forecasts of output …
Mixing Frequencies: Stock Returns As A Predictor Of Real Output Growth, Anthony S. Tay
Mixing Frequencies: Stock Returns As A Predictor Of Real Output Growth, Anthony S. Tay
Research Collection School Of Economics
We investigate two methods for using daily stock returns to forecast, and update forecasts of, quarterly real output growth. Both methods aggregate daily returns in some manner to form a single stock market variable. We consider (i) augmenting the quarterly AR(1) model for real output growth with daily returns using a nonparametric Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) setting, and (ii) augmenting the quarterly AR(1) model with the most recent r -day returns as an additional predictor. We find that our mixed frequency models perform well in forecasting real output growth.
Forecasting The Global Electronics Cycle With Leading Indicators: A Bayesian Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Forecasting The Global Electronics Cycle With Leading Indicators: A Bayesian Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Research Collection School Of Economics
Developments in the global electronics industry are typically monitored by tracking indicators that span a whole spectrum of activities in the sector. However, these indicators invariably give mixed signals at each point in time, thereby hampering attempts at prediction. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for forecasting the global electronics cycle by constructing a VAR model that captures the economic interactions between putative leading indicators representing expectations, orders, inventories and prices. The ability of the indicators to presage world semiconductor sales is first examined by Granger causality tests. Subsequently, an impulse response analysis confirms the leading qualities of …