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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
In-Fill Asymptotic Theory For Structural Break Point In Autoregression: A Unified Theory, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu
In-Fill Asymptotic Theory For Structural Break Point In Autoregression: A Unified Theory, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper obtains the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimatorof structural break point in the OrnsteinñUhlenbeck process when a continuousrecord is available. The exact distribution is asymmetric, tri-modal, dependenton the initial condition. These three properties are also found in the önite sampledistribution of the least squares (LS) estimator of structural break point inautoregressive (AR) models. Motivated by these observations, the paper then developsan in-öll asymptotic theory for the LS estimator of structural break point inthe AR(1) coe¢ cient. The in-öll asymptotic distribution is also asymmetric, trimodal,dependent on the initial condition, and delivers excellent approximationsto the önite sample distribution. Unlike …
Reduced Forms And Weak Instrumentation, Peter C. B. Phillips
Reduced Forms And Weak Instrumentation, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops exact finite sample and asymptotic distributions for a class of reduced form estimators and predictors, allowing for the presence of unidentified or weakly identified structural equations. Weak instrument asymptotic theory is developed directly from finite sample results, unifying earlier findings and showing the usefulness of structural information in making predictions from reduced form systems in applications. Asymptotic results are reported for predictions from models with many weak instruments. Of particular interest is the finding that, in unidentified and weakly identified structural models, partially restricted reduced form predictors have considerably smaller forecast mean square errors than unrestricted reduced …