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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation And Calibration In Financial Risk Management: High-Frequency Returns On Foreign Exchange, Francis X. Diebold, Jinyong Hahn, Anthony S. Tay
Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation And Calibration In Financial Risk Management: High-Frequency Returns On Foreign Exchange, Francis X. Diebold, Jinyong Hahn, Anthony S. Tay
Research Collection School Of Economics
We provide a framework for evaluating and improving multivariate density forecasts. Among other things, the multivariate framework lets us evaluate the adequacy of density forecasts involving cross-variable interactions, such as time-varying conditional correlations. We also provide conditions under which a technique of density forecast calibration can be used to improve deficient density forecasts, and we show how the calibration method can be used to generate good density forecasts from econometric models, even when the conditional density is unknown. Finally, motivated by recent advances in financial risk management, we provide a detailed application to multivariate high-frequency exchange rate density forecasts. © …
Estimating A Transformation And Its Effect On Box-Cox T-Ratio, Zhenlin Yang
Estimating A Transformation And Its Effect On Box-Cox T-Ratio, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This article concerns i) the stochastic behavior of the Box-Cox transformation estimator and ii) the effect of estimating a transformation on the Box-CoxT-ratio used for the post-transformation analysis. It is shown that the transformation estimator depends on three factors: the model structure, the mean-spread and the error standard deviation σ0. In general, a structured model is able to estimate the transformation very well; an unstructured model can do well also unless the mean-spread and σ0 are both small; and a one-mean mode can give a poor-estimate if σ0 is small. When the sample is not large, it is shown that …
Evaluating Density Forecasts Of Inflation: The Survey Of Professional Forecasters, Francis X. Diebold, Anthony S. Tay, Kenneth F. Wallis
Evaluating Density Forecasts Of Inflation: The Survey Of Professional Forecasters, Francis X. Diebold, Anthony S. Tay, Kenneth F. Wallis
Research Collection School Of Economics
Since 1968, the Survey of Professional Forecasters has asked respondents to provide a complete probability distribution of expected future inflation. We evaluate the adequacy of those density forecasts using the framework of Diebold, Gunther and Tay (1997). The analysis reveals several interesting features of the density forecasts in relation to realized inflation including several deficiencies of the forecasts. The probability of a large negative inflation shock is generally overestimated, and in more recent years the probability of a large shock of either sign is overestimated. Inflation surprises are serially correlated eventually adapt. Expectations of low inflation are associated with reduced …