Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Nonstationary Panels With Unobserved Heterogeneity, Wenxin Huang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation develops several econometric techniques to address the unobserved heterogeneity in nonstationary panels, namely identifying latent group structures in cointegrated panels, studying nonstationary panels with both cross-sectional dependence and latent group structures, and estimating panel error-correction model with unobserved dynamic common factors.

Chapter 1 considers a panel cointegration model with latent group structures that allows for heterogeneous long-run relations across groups. We extend Su et al. (2013) classifier-Lasso (C-Lasso) method to the nonstationary panels and allow for the presence of endogeneity in both the stationary and nonstationary regressors in the model. In addition, we allow the dimension of the …

On Human Capital Development In Bangladesh, Sijia Xu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of three chapters on human capital development in Bangladesh. The first chapter provides microeconometric evidence that access to electricity has a positive impact on the nutritional status of children under five in rural Bangladesh.

Three Essays On Empirical Asset Pricing, Ming Zeng

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This thesis consists of three chapters. In Chapter1, I show that returns to currency carry and momentum strategies are compensations for the risk of US monetary policy uncertainty (MPU), with risk exposures explaining 96% of their cross-sectional return variations. The findings are consistent with an intermediary-based exchange rate model. Higher MPU triggers position unwinding by the intermediary, which decreases there turns of currency with high-interest rate or appreciation, while that with low-interest rate or depreciation earns positive returns. Different responses stem from the long and short behavior of the intermediary. The explanatory power of US MPU risk is robust and …

Dispersion And Uncertainty In Density Forecasts: Evidence From Surveys Of Professional Forecasters, You Li

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation studies patterns of dispersion in density forecasts as reported in surveys of professional forecasters. We pay special attention to the role of uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts of real output growth and inflation. We also consider the relationship between survey design and forecaster behavior. The last chapter describes future research exploring the characteristics of forecaster expectations using probability integral transforms.

As a starting point, chapter one gives a summary of the literature that tries to answer, using data from survey of forecasters, the following three key questions: Why do forecasters disagree? What do density …

Three Essays On Panel Structure Models, Wuyi Wang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

In panel structure models, individuals can be classified into different groups with the slope parameters being homogeneous within the same group but heterogeneous across groups, both the number of groups and each individual’s group membership are unknown. This dissertation proposes some methods to identify the panel structure models under different specifications, namely, developing a Lasso-type Panel-CARDS method in the linear panel, constructing two sequential binary segmentation algorithms in the nonlinear panel, and using K-means algorithm in the spatial panel.

Chapter 2 studies the estimation of a linear panel data model with latent structures. To identify the unknown group structure of …

International Trade, Trade Policy, And The Wto, Wei Jin

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation comprises three papers that study the welfare impact of GATT/WTO, the effects of preference bias on trade flows and welfare, and the optimal trade policy with strategic interactions under a Ricardian model. The first chapter provides a comprehensive evaluation of the welfare impact of GATT/WTO in its entire history of 1950-2015 for 180 countries. The analysis embeds non-parametric matching methods in structural quantitative simulations. The results indicate substantial (but highly heterogeneous) welfare gains created by GATT/WTO at the global level and across more than six decades of its history. An extensive set of robustness checks with respect to …

Essays In Applied Microeconomics And Public Policy Evaluation, Yanying Chen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation comprises four papers that evaluate the effectiveness of public policies in Singapore. The first paper studies the non-tangible effect of a new non-contributory pension in Singapore on subjective well-being. The second investigates the effect of the same pension on labour supply, work expectations, private cash transfers and expenditure. The third evaluates a pragmatic randomised controlled trial of a new transitional care programme in a large quaternary hospital, while the fourth examines the effect of a large-scale housing upgrading programme on the resale prices of upgraded flats.

Chapter 2 looks at the non-tangible effect of a new non-contributory pension …

Essays In The Economics Of Health And Ageing, Yi Jin Tan

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of four papers in applied microeconomics / the economics of health and ageing that analyse the causal effect of public policies, or of events / issues amenable to policy intervention. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the papers in this dissertation.

Chapter 2 investigates whether a major and growing environmental disamenity – dengue fever – leads to protective behavior that increases residential electricity consumption. Being near a dengue cluster leads to a persistent increase in electricity consumption in 4-room and 5-room/bigger flats (by 1.7% and 1.1% respectively). In addition, electricity consumption rises discontinuously when a dengue cluster’s …

Essays In Commodities And Freight Markets, Nelson Yap

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Chapter 1: Structural Changes in Functional Curves: Estimation and Testing

Abstract: This paper considers the estimation and testing of structural changes in functional curves that occurs at an unknown date. The functional principal component analysis is applied to the random functional curves, decomposing them into interpretable simple latent functions and random scalars. We model the random scalars using a simple autoregressive model and test for a change in parameters that occur at an unknown date. This method is applied to the crude oil futures market to estimate and date possible structural breaks during OPEC announcement periods from 1984 to 2017.

Three Essays On Social Insurance, Jessica Ya Sun

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of three chapters on the economics of social insurance. Each chapter explores an aspect of the evaluation and design of social insurance in terms of nutrition, healthcare and unemployment.

The first chapter, Kim, Fleisher and Sun (2016) report evidence of long-term adverse health impacts of fetal malnutrition exposure of middle-aged survivors of the 1959-1961 China Famine using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. We find that fetal exposure to malnutrition has large and long lasting impacts on both physical health and cognitive abilities, including the risks of suffering a stroke, physical disabilities in speech, …