Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Predicting U. S. Presidential Elections: From 1900 Until Today, Richard L. Hogan

Purdue GIS Day

This presentation is scheduled for the weekend before the presidential election of 2016. By then, we might all need a break from pollsters and predictions, although we still might be looking for some assurance that this will not be the end of Western Civilization as we knew it. Toward that end, a little historical perspective on presidential elections since 1900, complete with cool maps, of course, indicating partisanship by state, will illustrate several important hypotheses that the data suggest we might incorporate in our efforts to predict the future by explaining the past. Neither candidate has approved this message.