Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Portland Msa Economic & Population Outlook (October 2019), Thomas Potiowsky, Portland State University, Northwest Economic Research Center

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

A new entry for the record books: Portland MSA employment expansion is the longest on record, having surpassed the 1990’s expansion last September. And we now sit in October and are one month shy of a decade of job growth. While the length of this expansion is impressive, if we compare the same length of time (9 years and 9 months) of this expansion with that of the 1990s, jobs increased by 33.6% in the 1990s while increasing 24.4% in the 2010s.

The Portland MSA recorded the 4th fastest percentage gains in household income in the country from 2007 to …

Governance, Costs, And Revenue Raising To Address And Prevent Homelessness In The Portland Tri-County Region, Marisa Zapata, Jenny H. Liu, Lauren Elizabeth Morrow Everett, Peter Hulseman, Thomas Potiowsky, Emma Willingham

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

In the Portland, Oregon metropolitan region, homelessness has become increasingly visible on our streets and in our media headlines. Conflicting rates of who is experiencing homelessness, differing definitions of who is at risk, and varying cost estimates to help those without a stable place to live leave community members confused about the scale and scope of the challenge that we face. Our overarching goal in this report is to provide information that helps the public deliberate about how to support people experiencing homelessness, and prevent future homelessness. We thread together three areas of work - governance, costs, and revenue - …

Rogue Transfer & Recycling Transfer Station Index: Synopsis, Northwest Economic Research Center

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

Rogue Transfer and Recycling, LLC (“RTR”) is a solid waste and recycling facility that collects and transfers solid waste and recycling materials from the Southern Oregon region. Currently RTR’s revenue and expenses are reviewed by Jackson County, Oregon in periodic rate reviews, with rates being adjusted in interim years by applying the annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). RTR requested that Northwest Economic Research Center (NERC) conduct detailed research and develop a new indicator – based on independent, reliable, and timely data – that more closely tracks RTR’s changes in total expenses per ton than the CPI. …

The Portland Adu Market: Conditions, Costs, Drivers, Incentives, Northwest Economic Research Center, Institute For Sustainable Solutions

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

This report was researched and written by the Northwest Economic Research Center of Portland State University (PSU) in collaboration with the Institute for Sustainable Solutions (also at PSU) in order to explore the potential for accessory dwelling units (ADUs) to increase housing affordability in the Portland metropolitan region. Additionally, this report seeks to broadly assess the efficacy of the City’s SDC fee waiver for increasing affordability by increasing the rental housing supply.

In October and November of 2017, ISS conducted an online survey of ADU owners and occupants, the results of which constitute the most exhaustive collection of data regarding …

Odot Highway Cost Allocation Study Review: Challenges In Including Regional Revenues, Northwest Economic Research Center, Thomas Potiowsky, Emma Willingham, Katelyn Kelley, Devin Bales

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

This report, written for the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) by Portland State University’s Northwest Economic Research Center, outlines the challenges that regional revenue collection poses for ODOT’s biennial Highway Cost Allocation Study (HCAS). The HCAS assesses the relative burdens of light and heavy vehicle classes on state infrastructure, in relation to the amount of revenue that said vehicle classes generate. In other words, it ensures that light vehicles and heavy vehicles are “paying their share” of state transportation expenditures.

Differences in vehicle traffic or differential impacts to vehicle classes are the root cause of most of the problems that …

Oregon Clean Fuels Program Report 2018, Northwest Economic Research Center, Jenny H. Liu, Emma Willingham

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

This report, written by the Northwest Economic Research Center (NERC) of Portland State University with support from the Packard Foundation, is the first in a series designed to assess the economic impact of the Oregon Clean Fuels Program (CFP). Following a discussion of carbon mitigation tools and policies, the body of the report establishes a baseline of infrastructure and regulated parties, followed by presentation and analysis of a set of economic indicator variables expected to influence or be influenced by the CFP. (See p. 5 for a table with all variables and their relevance to the program.)

Low carbon fuel …

Oregon Manufacturing Extension Partnership: Economic Impact Analysis -- January 2018 Update, Emma Willingham

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

The Hollings Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP), founded in 1988, is a network of non-profit agencies staffed by industry professionals and consultants. Historically, MEP has sought to increase the competitiveness of small to mid-size enterprises (which as a group comprise 99% of all U.S. manufacturing firms) by providing expert guidance and access to resources. In recent years, the severe economic recession sparked increased interest in the strength of the manufacturing sector, due to its longtime status as one of the major drivers of the domestic economy. Oregon Manufacturing Extension Partnership (OMEP), the Oregon branch of MEP, works to provide data-driven analysis …

Deconstruction In Portland: Summary Of Activity, Emma Willingham, Peter Hulseman, Mike Paruszkiewicz

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

On October 31st, 2016, the City of Portland instituted an ordinance requiring the deconstruction of all residential homes and duplexes built prior to 1917 or possessing a historical designation. Deconstruction is a relatively new industry, and with this local regulatory encouragement, several new contractors became certified to participate in the expanded market. This report provides background on the industry, largely from the 2016 report researched and written by the Northwest Economic Research Center (NERC) in anticipation of the requirement, and an examination of what has occurred in the year following the ordinance’s passage, using deconstruction and demolition permit data and …

Portland Msa Economic & Population Outlook October 2017, Thomas Potiowsky, Portland State University. Northwest Economic Research Center

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

NERC's binannual forecast of employment, income, housing permits, and house prices for the Portland MSA. The October release does not reiterate the population forecast from the April edition, but does include a long-run income forecast.

Rogue Disposal & Recycling Simplified Refuse Rate Index: Technical Report, Peter Hulseman, Emma Willingham, Peter Whitehead, Northwest Economic Research Center

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

As regulated franchises, waste management services are required to have all rate adjustments approved by local governing bodies. This typically involves supporting the requested adjustment with financial and operational data. The cost-intensive nature of this process limits its frequency. Many jurisdictions conduct a formal review every five years, with interim rates set using a proxy for marginal cost changes, typically an index such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI)1. Rogue Disposal & Recycling (RDR) is governed in such a way in several of the jurisdictions it serves. The central reason for this report is that the CPI has not proven …

Portland Msa Economic & Population Outlook April 2017, Thomas Potiowsky, Portland State University. Northwest Economic Research Center

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

NERC's biannual forecast of employment, income, housing permits, and house prices for the Portland MSA. The April release also includes the annual forecast of population and households.

The Media Industry In Oregon: Incentive And Impact Analysis, Mike Paruszkiewicz, Emma Willingham, Peter Hulseman

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

Oregon’s media industries have become increasingly well-known over the last several years, thanks in large part to successful feature length films and television series produced in the state. It is widely known that such productions offer visibility, tourism interest, and a boost to local merchants during their visits. More economically important, but less immediately obvious, are the impacts of a home grown industry of professionals and businesses that thrive in regions able to maintain a reliable stream of production activity. Numerous states now offer incentives to visiting media productions, some focused on big-ticket features and visiting series. In Oregon, the …

Oregon Manufacturing Extension Partnership: Economic Impact Analysis December 2016 Update, Hieu Nguyen, Emma Willingham, Peter Hulseman

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

The Hollings Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP), founded in 1988, is a network of non-profit agencies staffed by industry professionals and consultants. Historically, MEP has sought to increase the competitiveness of small to mid-size enterprises (which as a group comprise 99% of all U.S. manufacturing firms) by providing expert guidance and access to resources. In recent years, the severe economic recession sparked increased interest in the strength of the manufacturing sector, due to its longtime status as one of the major drivers of the domestic economy. Oregon Manufacturing Extension Partnership (OMEP), the Oregon branch of MEP, works to provide data-driven analysis …

Portland Green Loop Economic Analysis, Jenny H. Liu

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

The Portland “Green Loop” is a proposed 6-mile linear open space running through the heart of the city, connecting existing and new open spaces, parks, gathering areas, and walking and biking pathways. As envisioned, the Green Loop concept requires significant infrastructure investments, and would result in both short-term and long-term impacts on transportation (for all travel modes), environment and economic development. The goal of this project is to characterize, quantify and analyze these costs, benefits and impacts, particularly focusing on case studies of similar infrastructure investments in active transportation and analyses of property value impacts, economic (input-output) impacts and preliminary …

The Economic Impacts Of A Gross Receipt Tax For Oregon With Implications For Initiative Petition 28, Mike Paruszkiewicz, Thomas Potiowsky, Eric Hoffman, Emma Willingham

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

Discussion of the characteristics and projected economic impacts of a gross receipts tax for Oregon.

Minimum Wage Increases And Oregon’S Long-Term Care Sector, Mike Paruszkiewicz, Peter Hulseman, Emma Willingham

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

Analysis of direct and "ripple" effects of Oregon's recent minimum wage increase in the long-term care industry.

Minimum wage proposals have dominated recent policy debate in Oregon, culminating in the February 2016 legislative session that included the passage of Senate Bill 1532, a three-tiered minimum wage increase to be phased in between 2016 and 2022. Barring changes in other states, the law will give Oregon the highest minimum wage in the country. While the immediate impacts of the law on workers earning near the minimum are substantial and relatively clear-cut, businesses face less certain outcomes as the delicate balance between …

The Economics Of Residential Building Deconstruction In Portland, Or, Mike Paruszkiewicz, Jenny H. Liu, Rebecca Hanes, Eric Hoffman, Peter Hulseman, Emma Willingham

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

Impact analysis of the nascent deconstruction industry, in light of recent legislation.

The Economic Impact Of Oregon City’S County Seat Status, Mike Paruszkiewicz, Jeff Renfro, Peter Hulseman, Emma Willingham

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

Impact analysis discussing the economic role of county presence in Oregon City.

Oregon Manufacturing Extension Partnership: An Economic Impact Analysis, Emma Willingham, Mike Paruszkiewicz

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

The Hollings Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP), founded in 1988, is a network of non-profit agencies staffed by industry professionals and consultants. Historically, MEP has sought to increase the competitiveness of small to mid-size enterprises (which as a group comprise 99% of all U.S. manufacturing firms) by providing expert guidance and access to resources. In recent years, the severe economic recession sparked increased interest in the strength of the manufacturing sector, due to its longtime status as one of the major drivers of the domestic economy. Oregon Manufacturing Extension Partnership (OMEP), the Oregon branch of MEP, works to provide data-driven analysis …

The State Of The Portland Msa Housing Market, Portland State University. Northwest Economic Research Center

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

On its surface, the rapid increase of home prices in the Portland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) resembles the overheated moments before the housing bubble burst in 2007. OnPoint Community Credit Union, concerned that history may already be repeating itself, asked the Northwest Economic Research Center (NERC) to investigate speculation within the Portland housing market, provide a forecast of home prices, and summarize potential market headwinds and tailwinds.

To accomplish this, NERC estimates the change in local home prices due to ‘fundamental’ drivers. Using population and income to estimate a fundamental home price index (HPI), this analysis compares the fundamental HPI …

Columbia Corridor Drainage Districts Governance Study, Thomas Potiowsky, Jenny Liu, Mike Paruszkiewicz, Jeff Renfro, Marisol Cáceres, Peter Hulseman

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

This study focused on major questions related to drainage district consolidation in the Columbia Corridor, arising from the geographic and economic diversity that characterizes the four entities. The magnitude and type of economic activity within the districts varies considerably, and results in a broad range of operational resources and levee system requirements.

Oregon Highway Cost Allocation Study: Carbon Tax Issue Paper, Portland State University. College Of Urban And Public Affairs. Northwest Economic Research Center

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

The basic insight behind carbon pricing is not new, and is based in mainstream economic theory. If market interactions are leading to the overuse of resources outside of the market, imposing a price on the overused resource will bring it into the market and increase efficiency. Currently, the negative impacts associated with the release of carbon through fossil fuel combustion is not incorporated into the market. By imposing a price on carbon, fossil fuel consumers are incentivized to reduce their fuel usage. This reduction in fuel demand is not necessarily associated with lower economic output. In fact, depending on the …

Retirement Security In Oregon, Jeff Renfro, Marisol Cáceres, Peter Hulseman

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

By expanding access to retirement savings plans, a state-sponsored program for workers should increase the overall level of participation, and, ultimately, increase retirement fund income. The over 400,000 new enrollees estimated by this study suggests that these programs can have large impacts.

Oregon Manufacturing Extension Partnership: An Economic Impact Analysis, Jeff Renfro, Marisol Cáceres, Peter Hulseman

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

Large, technology manufacturers tend to dominate the Oregon manufacturing discussion, but as the preceding results show, smaller manufacturers like metalworkers and bakeries can produce large numbers of new jobs, particularly when given technical assistance. The aggregate effect of employment increases from small- and medium-sized firms is large, and contributes to sectors identified as priorities by Oregon’s economic development agencies.

Economic And Emissions Impacts Of A Clean Air Tax Or Fee In Oregon (Sb306), Jenny H. Liu, Jeff Renfro, Christopher Butenhoff, Mike Paruszkiewicz

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

Analysis on how a carbon pricing policy would affect different Oregon industry sectors and regions.

Impact Washington:An Economic Impact Analysis, Mike Paruszkiewicz, Jeff Renfro

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

This report estimated the economic impact of Impact Washington on manufacturing in Washington State.

Oregon Property Tax Capitalization: Evidence From Portland, Jenny H. Liu, Jeff Renfro

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

The passage of Measures 5 and 50 drastically changed the way property taxes were assessed in Oregon. The measures were intended to limit the ability of government to raise property taxes, while achieving other goals such as equalizing school funding across the state. The property tax system that resulted is complex and has introduced inequities into the system based on differing rates of changes between assessed value (AV) and real market value (RMV). The League of Oregon Cities (LOC) asked the Northwest Economic Research Center (NERC) to investigate the effect of the tax structure on residential sale prices as part …

A Comparison Of Emergency Service Provider Costs For Formerly Homeless Persons Living Inpermanent Supportive Housing In Washington County, Oregon, Scott Stewart, Janai Kessi

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

Comparison between the emergency service costs that homeless persons incur while homeless with their costs for the same services while residing in permanent, supportive housing.

Union Carpenter Activity Forecasting, Thomas Potiowsky, Kyle O'Brien, Jeff Renfro

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

The objective of this study is to obtain a model and methodology for forecasting carpenter activity for the purpose of forecasting Trust contributions. Employer contributions into the trust are a function of hours worked by carpenter union members. Therefore, by forecasting the hours worked by carpenters, the Trust can easily obtain an estimate for employer contributions.

Oregon Manufacturing Extension Partnership: An Economic Impact Analysis, Jeff Renfro, Marisol Cáceres, Janai Kessi

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

Estimated the economic impact of the Oregon Manufacturing Extension Partnership on manufacturing in Oregon.