Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Characterizing Climatic Socio-Environmental Tipping Points In Coastal Communities: A Conceptual Framework For Research And Practice, Julie Elizabeth Shortridge, Anamaria Bukvic, Molly Mitchell, Jesse Goldstein, Tom Allen

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

The concept of climate tipping points in socio-environmental systems is increasingly being used to describe nonlinear climate change impacts and encourage social transformations in response to climate change. However, the processes that lead to these tipping points and their impacts are highly complex and deeply uncertain. This is due to numerous interacting environmental and societal system components, constant system evolution, and uncertainty in the relationships between events and their consequences. In the face of this complexity and uncertainty, this research presents a conceptual framework that describes systemic processes that could lead to tipping points socio-environmental systems, with a focus on …

Nato Past 75: Moving Into A Twenty Years' Crisis, 2021-2041, Simon Serfaty

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

[Introduction] "A constructive treatment of Europe's present-day problems calls for historical thinking which is something more than mere historical knowledge," wrote historian Hajo Holborn about the political collapse of Europe. Historical thinking views the moment as a combination of Saint Augustine's "three presents" - of things past and things future as well as of things present. Admittedly, it is on all three accounts that current conditions now look bleak on both sides of the Atlantic. At home, the constitutional order is at risk in the United States and other Western democracies, pending the next national election; abroad, the postwar institutional …

A Bargaining Theory Of Us-China Economic Rivalry: Differentiating The Trade And Technology Wars, Cathy Xuauxuan Wu

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

This article examines the outbreak and persistence of US–China economic war, which comprises both the trade war, featured with retaliatory tariffs, and the technology war, featured with restrictions on Chinese access to US technologies. Building on the analytical framework of bargaining and war, I argue that different components of the economic war emerged from distinct causes. The outbreak of the trade war was primarily driven by the information problem, characterized by mutual uncertainty and the lack of effective communications. The technology war was largely a result of the commitment problem driven by the existing power’s concern regarding potential future changes …

The Impact Of Climate Change On Environmental Sustainability And Human Mortality, Xingzhi Mara Chen, Andrew Sharma, Hua Liu

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Climate dictates the critical aspects of human environmental conditions. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions due to human-induced climate change have alarmingly increased. Consequently, climate change directly affects environmental sustainability and human mortality in the short term and creates prolonged and complicated long-term indirect grave risks. This paper examines three-level environmental impact risks associated with climate change on human mortality. It proposes a conceptual framework for developing an empirical event-based human mortality database related to climate change and communication strategies to enhance global environmental adaptation, resilience, and sustainability.

Coastal Science For Resilience And Management At The Cape Hatteras National Seashore, Nc, Usa, Michael J. Flynn, Thomas R. Allen, Meaghan E. Johnson, David E. Hallac

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

National seashores are cherished public lands with rich environmental, cultural, and historic resources. The Cape Hatteras National Seashore is one such coastal asset that is both bountiful yet vulnerable, with historic lighthouses, critical habitats, and recreational amenities alike facing threats of sea-level rise and continual storm and climate change impacts. Over 3 million visitors to the Seashore in 2021 set an annual visitation record. Historic resources such as the Bodie Island Lighthouse and Ocracoke Lighthouse are among the most visited sites, yet these assets are also among those most vulnerable to flooding, compromised structural integrity, and reduced accessibility. Future challenges …

Assessment Of Spatio-Temporal Variations In Pm2.5 And Associated Long-Range Air Mass Transport And Mortality In South Asia, Md Sariful Islam, Shimul Roy, Tanmoy Roy Tusher, Mizanur Rahman, Ryley C. Harris

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is associated with adverse impacts on ambient air quality and human mortality; the situation is especially dire in developing countries experiencing rapid industrialization and urban development. This study assessed the spatio-temporal variations of PM_2.5 and its health impacts in the South Asian region. Both satellite and station-based data were used to monitor the variations in PM_2.5 over time. Additionally, mortality data associated with ambient particulate matter were used to depict the overall impacts of air pollution in this region. We applied the Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope trend analysis tool to investigate the …

Anticipating And Adapting To The Impacts Of Climate Change On Low Elevation Coastal Zone (Lecz) Communities, Lynn Donelson Wright, Thomas Allen, Kiki Caruson, Alain Hénaff, Jaia Syvitski

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

[Scholarcy Abstract] The rates of sea level rise in coastal Virginia and the Chesapeake Bay significantly exceed the global rate and weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation adds to the annual rates.

The original vision was to enhance future resilience of Low-Elevation Coastal Zone communities by advancing understandings and approaches to better anticipate and mitigate hazards to human health, safety and welfare and reduce deleterious impacts to coastal residents and industries. The goal of the thematic Research Topic has been to assemble interdisciplinary papers that contribute to better understanding of the couplings among physical, ecological, socioeconomic, management and policy …

Assessing Spurious Correlations In Big Search Data, Jesse T. Richman, Ryan J. Roberts

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Big search data offers the opportunity to identify new and potentially real-time measures and predictors of important political, geographic, social, cultural, economic, and epidemiological phenomena, measures that might serve an important role as leading indicators in forecasts and nowcasts. However, it also presents vast new risks that scientists or the public will identify meaningless and totally spurious ‘relationships’ between variables. This study is the first to quantify that risk in the context of search data. We find that spurious correlations arise at exceptionally high frequencies among probability distributions examined for random variables based upon gamma (1, 1) and Gaussian random …

Conceptual Metaphor Usage In Glenn Youngkin’S 2021 Gubernatorial Campaign, Sara Rose Hotaling

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

In “Conceptual Metaphor in Everyday Language,” Lakoff and Johnson suggest that conceptual metaphors pervade everyday language and produce the reality of our world. Conceptual metaphors act similarly within the occupational register of political campaigns in that they both support and construct a set of beliefs that become the reality of politicians, political parties, and constituents. In this language research, the conceptual metaphors employed by Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin during his 2021 gubernatorial campaign were identified, analyzed, and categorized. The corpus of this research consists of two gubernatorial debates, three campaign speeches, and one television interview. An example of conceptual metaphor …

Racialization And International Security, Richard W. Maass

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Racialization—the processes that infuse social and political phenomena with racial identities and implications—is an assertion of power, a claim of purportedly inherent differences that has saturated modern diplomacy, order, and violence. Despite the field's consistent interest in power, international security studies in the United States largely omitted racial dynamics from decades of debates about international conflict and cooperation, nuclear proliferation, power transitions, unipolarity, civil wars, terrorism, international order, grand strategy, and other subjects. A new framework lays conceptual bedrock, links relevant literatures to major research agendas in international security, cultivates interdisciplinary dialogues, and charts promising paths to consider how overt …

S-400s, Disinformation, And Anti-American Sentiment In Turkey, Russell "Alex" Korb, Saltuk Karahan, Gowri Prathap, Ekrem Kaya, Luke Palmieri, Hamdi Kavak, Richard L. Wilson (Ed.), Major Brendan Curran (Ed.)

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

As social and political discourse in most countries becomes more polarized, anti-Americanism has risen not only in the Middle East and Latin America but also among the U.S. allies in Europe. Social media is one platform used to disseminate anti-American views in NATO countries, and its effectiveness can be magnified when mass media, public officials, and popular figures adopt these views. Disinformation, in particular, has gained recognition as a cybersecurity issue from 2016 onward, but disinformation can be manufactured domestically in addition to being part of a foreign influence campaign. In this paper, we analyze Turkish tweets using sentiment analysis …

A Model Of Build Back Better Utilization: Long-Term Recovery Groups And Post-Disaster Housing Recovery, Eduardo Landaeta, Jesse Richman

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Housing recovery, especially for vulnerable populations, can be a challenging process. Questions regarding whether to rebuild damaged housing and whether to restore it to its previous state or to build back better must be answered. In the United States, Long-Term Recovery Groups (LTRGs) play a crucial role in channeling assistance to vulnerable community members as they embark on housing recovery. However, the experiences of LTRGs have been understudied. To address this gap, the study utilizes interviews with a diverse range of LTRG members and develops an agent-based model following the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol. The results highlight …

Advancing Estuarine Shoreline Change Analysis Using Small Uncrewed Autonomous Systems, Thomas R. Allen, Devon Eulie, Mariko Polk, George Mcleod, Robert Stuart, Alexandra Garnand, A. J. Manning (Editor)

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Estuarine shorelines face the threats of accelerating sea-level rise, recurrent storms, and disruptions of natural sediment and ecological adjustments owing to historic human interventions. The growing availability and technical capability of uncrewed systems (UxS), including remote or autonomous aerial and surface vessels, provide new opportunities to study and understand estuarine shoreline changes. This chapter assesses the state of the technology, interdisciplinary science and engineering literature, and presents case studies from the Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, and coastal North Carolina, USA, that demonstrate new insights into coastal geomorphic processes and applications to managing complex and dynamic estuarine shorelines. These technologies enhance the …

Participatory Mapping To Address Neighborhood Level Data Deficiencies For Food Security Assessment In Southeastern Virginia, Usa, Nicole S. Hutton, George Mcleod, Thomas R. Allen, Christopher Davis, Alexander Garnand, Heather Richter, Prachi P. Chaven, Leslie Hoglund, Jill Comess, Matthew Herman, Brian Martin, Cynthia Romero

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Background: Food is not equitably available. Deficiencies and generalizations limit national datasets, food security assessments, and interventions. Additional neighborhood level studies are needed to develop a scalable and transferable process to complement national and internationally comparative data sets with timely, granular, nuanced data. Participatory geographic information systems (PGIS) offer a means to address these issues by digitizing local knowledge.

Methods: The objectives of this study were two-fold: (i) identify granular locations missing from food source and risk datasets and (ii) examine the relation between the spatial, socio-economic, and agency contributors to food security. Twenty-nine subject matter experts from three cities …

Emergence Of A Norm From Resistance: Using Simulation To Explore The Macro Implications Of Social Identity Theory, Khadijeh Salimi, Jesse T. Richman, Regina Karp, George P. Richardson, David Anderson

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

We usually hope that social norms discourage injustice. However, we are all witnesses to harmful norms enforced by governments, such as xenophobia, which need to be contested and changed. Previous studies have concluded that it is possible to change a harmful norm through contestation by powerless actors if suitable structural conditions exist. However, these structural conditions have not been sufficiently studied and, as such, are the focus of this paper. Our paper begins with a review of well-established micro-level theories of social identity theory (SIT), recast as a set of 42 discrete theoretical statements. These statements are then re-expressed in …

A Gamefied Synthetic Environment For Evaluation Of Counter-Disinformation Solutions, Jesse Richman, Lora Pitman, Girish S. Nandakumar

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

This paper presents a simulation-based approach to countering online dis/misinformation. This disruptive technology experiment incorporated a synthetic environment component, based on adapted SIR epidemiological model to evaluate and visualize the effectiveness of suggested solutions to the issue. The participants in the simulation were given a realistic scenario depicting a dis/misinformation threat and were asked to select a number of solutions, described in IoS (Ideas-of-Systems) cards. During the event, the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the IoS cards, were tested in a synthetic environment (SEN), built after a Susceptible-Infected-Resistant (SIR) model. The participants, divided into teams, presented and justified their dis/misinformation …

The Economic Efficiency Of Aid Targeting, Ariel Benyishay, Matthew Dilorenzo, Carrie Dolan

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

How efficient is the targeting of foreign aid to populations in need? A long literature has focused on the impacts of foreign aid, but much rarer are studies that examine how such aid is allocated within countries. We examine the extent to which donors efficiently respond to exogenous budget shocks by shifting resources toward needier districts within a given country, as predicted by theory. We use recently geocoded data on the World Bank’s aid in 23 countries that crossed the lower-middle income threshold between 1995 and 2010 and thus experienced sharp aid reductions. We measure locations’ need along a number …

Keeping It Complex With Philip Hunton, John Locke, And The United States Federal Judiciary: On The Merit Of Murkiness In Separation Of Powers Jurisprudence, Michelle M. Kundmueller

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

This article draws on the resources of a little-known political theorist, Philip Hunton, to explain the function of “murky” jurisprudence in the maintenance of separation of powers over time. In the era immediately before the drafting of the United States Constitution, separation of powers was a touted remedy to tyranny. But if government is thus moderated, a critical question arises: who will judge the precise contours of each institution’s powers? This article addresses this longstanding question by comparing the solutions offered by Philip Hunton, John Locke, and the United States judiciary. I conclude that the judiciary’s decried inability to clarify …

The Maritime Domain Awareness Center– A Human-Centered Design Approach, Gary Gomez

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

This paper contends that Maritime Domain Awareness Center (MDAC) design should be a holistic approach integrating established knowledge about human factors, decision making, cognitive tasks, complexity science, and human information interaction. The design effort should not be primarily a technology effort that focuses on computer screens, information feeds, display technologies, or user interfaces. The existence of a room with access to vast amounts of information and wall-to-wall video screens of ships, aircraft, weather data, and other regional information does not necessarily correlate to possessing situation awareness. Fundamental principles of human-centered information design should guide MDAC design and technology selection, and …

Exploring Spatial Patterns Of Virginia Tornadoes Using Kernel Density And Space-Time Cube Analysis (1960-2019), Michael J. Allen, Thomas R. Allen, Christopher Davis, George Mcleod, Wolfgang Kainz (Ed.), Dean Kyne (Ed.)

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

This study evaluates the spatial-temporal patterns in Virginia tornadoes using the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather GIS (SVRGIS) database. In addition to descriptive statistics, the analysis employs Kernel Density Estimation for spatial pattern analysis and space-time cubes to visualize the spatiotemporal frequency of tornadoes and potential trends. Most of the 726 tornadoes between 1960–2019 occurred in Eastern Virginia, along the Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Consistent with other literature, both the number of tornadoes and the tornado days have increased in Virginia. While 80% of the tornadoes occurred during the warm season, tornadoes did occur during each month …

Recent Trends In Heat-Related Mortality In The United States: An Update Through 2018, Scott C. Sheridan, P. Grady Dixon, Adam J. Kalkstein, Michael J. Allen

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Much research has shown a general decrease in the negative health response to extreme heat events in recent decades. With a society that is growing older, and a climate that is warming, whether this trend can continue is an open question. Using eight additional years of mortality data, we extend our previous research to explore trends in heat-related mortality across the United States. For the period 1975–2018, we examined the mortality associated with extreme-heat-event days across the 107 largest metropolitan areas. Mortality response was assessed over a cumulative 10-day lag period following events that were defined using thresholds of the …

Re-Spatializing Gangs: An Exponential Random Graph Model Of Twitter Data To Analyze The Geospatial Distribution Of Gang Member Connections, Ryan J. Roberts

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Gang studies often use location-based approaches to explain gang members’ interconnectedness. Although this perspective remains consistent with the proximity principle that the smaller the geographic space, the greater the likelihood of observing connections between individuals, location-based studies limit our understanding of gang member connections to narrowly defined geographic spaces at specific points in time. The advent of social media has re-spatialized gang member interconnectedness to unbounded geographic spaces, where the preservation of online activity can extend indefinitely. Despite having an online presence, most research examining the digital footprint of gangs tends to be descriptive. This study collects Twitter data to …

The Relationship Between Neighborhood Characteristics And Homicide In Karachi, Pakistan, Salma Hamza, Imran Khan, Linlin Lu, Hua Liu, Farkhunda Burke, Syed Nawaz-Ul-Huda, Muhammad Fahad Baqa, Aqil Tariq

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

The geographical concentration of criminal violence is closely associated with the social, demographic, and economic structural characteristics of neighborhoods. However, few studies have investigated homicide patterns and their relationships with neighborhoods in South Asian cities. In this study, the spatial and temporal patterns of homicide incidences in Karachi from 2009 to 2018 were analyzed using the local indicators of spatial association (LISA) method. Generalized linear modeling (GLM) and geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) methods were implemented to examine the relationship between influential factors and the number of homicides during the 2009–2018 period. The results demonstrate that the homicide hotspot or …

A Global Ecological Classification Of Coastal Segment Units To Complement Marine Biodiversity Observation Network Assessments, Roger Sayre, Kevin Butler, Keith Van Graafeiland, Sean Breyer, Dawn Wright, Charlie Frye, Deniz Karagulle, Madeline Martin, Jill Cress, Tom Allen, Rebecca J. Allee, Rost Parsons, Bjorn Nyberg, Mark J. Costello, Peter Harris, Frank E. Muller-Karger

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

A new data layer provides Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS) labels for global coastal segments at 1 km or shorter resolution. These characteristics are summarized for six US Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) sites and one MBON Pole to Pole of the Americas site in Argentina. The global coastlines CMECS classifications were produced from a partitioning of a 30 m Landsat-derived shoreline vector that was segmented into 4 million 1 km or shorter segments. Each segment was attributed with values from 10 variables that represent the ecological settings in which the coastline occurs, including properties of the adjacent …

Nonprofit Capacity To Manage Hurricane-Pandemic Threat: Local And National Perspectives On Resilience During Covid-19, Nicole S. Hutton, Steven W. Mumford, Marina Saitgalina, Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, Joshua G. Behr, Rafael Diaz, John J. Kiefer

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

This paper examines nonprofits' capacity for responding to simultaneous hurricane-pandemic threat, addressing: (1) strategies nonprofits use to deliver services during the COVID-19 pandemic, and (2) how natural hazards may affect nonprofit roles in emergency service delivery during a pandemic. Data come from a survey of New Orleans-based nonprofits demonstrating effects of pandemic on local nonprofit service delivery, and workshops with U.S. coastal community stakeholders exploring expectations for nonprofit roles in emergency operations nationwide. Nonprofits have applied resilient strategies including virtual operations, staff reductions, and funding diversification, but vulnerabilities remain. Findings guide a research agenda for building nonprofit and community resilience.

The Role Of Traditional Knowledge In Coastal Adaptation Priorities: The Pamunkey Indian Reservation, Nicole S. Hutton, Thomas R. Allen

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Coastal reservations are increasingly vulnerable to hazards exacerbated by climate change. Resources for restoration projects are limited. Storm surge, storms, tidal flooding, and erosion endanger artifacts and limit livelihoods of tribes in coastal Virginia. GIS offers a platform to increase communication between scientists, planners, and indigenous groups. The Pamunkey Indian Tribe engaged in a participatory mapping exercise to assess the role of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) in coastal management decision-making and its capacity to address flooding. Priorities and strategies were spatially referenced using maps of potential sea level rise for 2040, 2060, and 2080, input into a resilience matrix to …

Cuban Migrants And The Making Of Havana's Property Market, Gertjan Wijburg, Manuel B. Aalbers, Federica Bono

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

The emerging literature on the globalization of real estate has addressed how internationally circulating capital has increasingly found its ways into housing markets of the "Global South". With relatively underdeveloped financial and real estate markets, these countries have discursively and materially been rebranded as emerging markets, that is, they have been shaped into frontiers in the global urbanization of capital. In this paper we scrutinize the transnational real estate networks that shape and reshape the Cuban housing market. First, we reconstruct how, following the 2011 legalization of housing prices set between buyers and sellers, Cuban migrants and a few foreign …

A Partnership At Risk, Simon Serfaty

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

The article focuses on issues regarding transatlantic partnership with urgency of climate change, sharing the impact of a growing migrant crisis, regulating the cyber anarchy, digging out of massive imbalances, and more. It mentions U.S. President Donald Trump's approach about the world is four-dimensional and improbable promise of a bilateral trade agreement with Great Britain. It also mentions Trump's consensus to re-embrace the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, with the expectation of a broader round of multilateral negotiations with Iran; a return to the Paris Treaty on Climate Change, with shared goals of further progress in many of its …

Challenges In Upgrading Emergency Power In Florida Nursing Homes Following Hurricane Irma, Nicole S. Hutton, Michael J. Allen

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Maintaining and restoring electricity after a disaster helps to preserve the health and well-being of the elderly who are at increased risk of heat stress and may be dependent upon life-sustaining medical equipment. Mitigation policies altered in reaction to increased public interest without thorough consideration of industry-specific resources may contribute to delays in implementation and unrealized potential for emergency power coverage within individual facilities. The objectives of this research are twofold: (i) to examine the relationship between preexisting conditions of life-safety systems at facilities and date of implementation of emergency power regulation improvements and (ii) to assess the role of …

Victory By The Weakest: Effects Of Negative Advertising In N>2 Candidate Campaigns, Jesse T. Richman

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

The truel, or three way duel, has distinct properties from duels: the weakest contestant often has a very good chance to win. This paper explores application of the logic of truels to election campaigns involving negative advertising. We show that negative campaigning that pits the leading candidates against each other can create circumstances in which the third (or worse) place candidate wins in one or more of the Nash equilibria of the game. We then study whether the simulated existence of an opportunity for Nash equilibrium victory by third place candidates predicts such outcomes in U.S. state-wide elections.