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Validation Of Inverse Seasonal Peak Mortality In Medieval Plagues, Including The Black Death, In Comparison To Modern Yersinia Pestis-Variant Diseases, Mark R. Welford, Brian H. Bossak

School of Earth, Environment, and Sustainability Faculty Publications

Background: Recent studies have noted myriad qualitative and quantitative inconsistencies between the medieval Black Death (and subsequent ‘‘plagues’’) and modern empirical Y. pestis plague data, most of which is derived from the Indian and Chinese plague outbreaks of A.D. 1900615 years. Previous works have noted apparent differences in seasonal mortality peaks during Black Death outbreaks versus peaks of bubonic and pneumonic plagues attributed to Y. pestis infection, but have not provided spatiotemporal statistical support. Our objective here was to validate individual observations of this seasonal discrepancy in peak mortality between historical epidemics and modern empirical data.

Methodology/Principal Findings: …