Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Midterm Elections Used To Gauge President's Reelection Chances, Desmond D. Wallace

Bridges: A Journal of Student Research

Since 1952 there have been thirteen instances in which the incumbent president's party lost seats in the House of Representatives in a midterm election. Researchers have created two competing theories to explain this trend. The surge-and-decline theory argues that the reasons for causing high voter turnout in a presidential election are absent in a midterm election, leading to a decline in voter turnout and subsequent losses by the president's party. The other theory, the referendum theory, argues that losses suffered by the president's party are due to the president's performance and the performance of the economy. When it comes to …