Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Are Tax Rates Too Volatile?, Gregory Hess

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

The way in which a government chooses to raise tax revenue over time has attracted considerable attention both in the tax literature, and the political business cycle literature. The tax literature ahs emphasized planning problems where the government chooses taxes and a path for government debt to minimize the excess burden of taxes over time. Alternatively, the political business cycle models focus on the fiscal policies pursued by incumbent governments to either improve their reelection prospects or to constrain the policies that future governments in power will pursue.

This paper addresses the question of whether tax rates fluctuate “in excess” …

The Cost Of Doing A Cost Estimate, Donald S. Remer, Harry R. Buchanan

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

There are many reasons for cost overruns, but one of the key factors it the lack of resources (time, money, and staffing) spent to do proper up-front cost estimates. Another major reason is that the implements were not involved in the estimating. The purpose of this article is to address the issue of the cost to do a cost estimate [8]. We will report on how others handle this issue and make suggestions on how the Deep Space Network (DSN) should estimate the amount to spend on a cost estimate and its impact on reducing the probability of a cost …

A Test Of The Theory Of Optimal Taxation For The United States, 1869-1989, Gregory Hess

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

A popular theory of optimal tax policies suggests that tax rates should follow a random walk. This paper extends the existing empirical literature in three ways. First, the impact on the marginal utility of consumption when the government chooses a tax plan to smooth the distorting impact of taxes is considered. Second, exogenous changes in the real rate of interest are incorporated into the government's optimal tax plan. Finally, the tax elasticity of output is not constant over time. Allowing for these changes, there is evidence that the government discounts the future, attempts to smooth the distorting impact of taxes …

Nominal Income Targeting With The Monetary Base As Instrument: An Evaluation Of Mccallum's Rule, Gregory Hess, David H. Small, Flint Brayton

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

In this paper, we explore McCallum's monetary base instrument rule in the context of several models. The first section uses two models, previously utilized by McCallum, to demonstrate the general properties of his rule and to update through 1992 the empirical support for the rule. The second section uses models that allow a significant role for interest rates in transmitting the effects of changes in the monetary base to aggregate demand. The analysis in these two sections makes two main points: (1) Shifts. or instabilities, in the structural relationship between the base and nominal GNP in the 1980s and 1990s …

Cognitive Motivations And Sensation Seeking As Long-Term Predictors Of Drinking Problems, Alan W. Stacy, Michael D. Newcomb, Peter M. Bentler

CGU Faculty Publications and Research

The development of comprehensive theories regarding the determinants of
vulnerability toward drinking problems depends in part on longitudinal evidence
linking psychosocial precursors to clinically-relevant problem consequences. In
an investigation of some of the more promising psychosocial precursors of
problem vulnerability, we evaluated the long-term predictive effects of adolescent
cognitive motivations for alcohol use and sensation seeking on a wide variety of
adult drinking-problem consequences including driving while intoxicated (DWI).
Results indicated that the Cognitive Motivation factor was a significant, independent, nine-year predictor of a factor of Drinking-Problem Consequences. Over this same period, certain cognitive motivation and sensation seeking indicators independently …

Identification Of Which High Risk Youth Smoke Cigarettes Regularly, Alan W. Stacy, Steve Sussman, Clyde W. Dent, Thomas R. Simon, Dee Burton, Brian R. Flay

CGU Faculty Publications and Research

This study investigated which variables distinguish high school-aged adolescents who identify themselves as members of a high-risk group and, among them, those who report regular (weekly) vs. light levels of cigarette smoking. Youth who identified with a high-risk group were most likely to report problem-prone characteristics, such as a preference to take risks and smoke cigarettes. Yet, only half of them reported regular levels of smoking. Two variables delineated light smoking among these youth: not having a close friend who smoked and placing an importance on health as a value. Development of new tobacco-use prevention strategies to impart health values …

Construct Validity Of Dimensions Of Adaptive Behavior: A Multitrait-Multimethod Evaluation., Alan W. Stacy, Keith F. Widaman, Sharon A. Borthwick-Duffy

CGU Faculty Publications and Research

The construct validity of four dimensions of adaptive and maladaptive behavior was investigated using the multitrait-multimethod matrix procedure of Campbell and Fiske (1959). Measures off our traits cognitive competence, social competence, social maladaption, and personal maladaption were obtained on a sample of 157 persons with moderate, severe, or profound mental retardation using each of three methods of measurement-standardized assessment instrument, day shift staff ratings, and evening shift staff ratings. Applying the Campbell and Fiske rules of thumb and recently proposed structural equation modeling techniques to the data demonstrated strong convergent validity, clear discriminant validity, and only moderate levels of method …

Letter To The Editor: Tactical Decision Games, Robert J. Bunker

CGU Faculty Publications and Research

No abstract provided.