Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Generating Strong Diversity Of Opinions: Agent Models Of Continuous Opinion Dynamics, Christopher W. Weimer

Theses and Dissertations

Opinion dynamics is the study of how opinions in a group of individuals change over time. A goal of opinion dynamics modelers has long been to find a social science-based model that generates strong diversity -- smooth, stable, possibly multi-modal distributions of opinions. This research lays the foundations for and develops such a model. First, a taxonomy is developed to precisely describe agent schedules in an opinion dynamics model. The importance of scheduling is shown with applications to generalized forms of two models. Next, the meta-contrast influence field (MIF) model is defined. It is rooted in self-categorization theory and improves …

Finding The Fuel Of The Arab Spring Fire: A Historical Data Analysis, Darryl K. Ahner, Luke M. Brantley

Faculty Publications

Purpose: This paper aims to address the reasons behind the varying levels of volatile conflict and peace as seen during the Arab Spring of 2011 to 2015. During this time, higher rates of conflict transition occurred than normally observed in previous studies for certain Middle Eastern and North African countries.

Design/Methodology/Approach: Previous prediction models decrease in accuracy during times of volatile conflict transition. Also, proper strategies for handling the Arab Spring have been highly debated. This paper identifies which countries were affected by the Arab Spring and then applies data analysis techniques to predict a country’s tendency to suffer from …

Non-Gnss Smartphone Pedestrian Navigation Using Barometric Elevation And Digital Map-Matching, Daniel Broyles, Kyle J. Kauffman, John F. Raquet, Piotr Smagowski

Faculty Publications

Pedestrian navigation in outdoor environments where global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) are unavailable is a challenging problem. Existing technologies that have attempted to address this problemoften require external reference signals or specialized hardware, the extra size,weight, power, and cost of which are unsuitable for many applications. This article presents a real-time, self-contained outdoor navigation application that uses only the existing sensors on a smartphone in conjunction with a preloaded digital elevation map. The core algorithm implements a particle filter, which fuses sensor data with a stochastic pedestrian motion model to predict the user’s position. The smartphone’s barometric elevation is then …

Phase Gate Implementation Of Project Definition Rating Index (Pdri 9f Af Milcon Project Development: A Comprehensive Analysis, Jared R. Breuker

Theses and Dissertations

The $1.3B Air Force Military Construction (MILCON) program has shown a trend of 6% cost growth and 12% schedule growth in the construction phases of its projects. Air Force leadership has attributed this to a shortfall in the standardized processes for requirements definition and scope development. The Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI) has been in use on Air Force MILCON projects for almost a decade, but the development and approval process for these projects does not lend itself to direct PDRI implementation. 96 PDRI MILCON projects executed from 2009 to 2016 were analyzed for trends in project development implementation strategies …

Af Corporate Exposure Assessment Strategy: Underlying Cost Behaviors And Visibility, Bradley M. Duncan

Theses and Dissertations

The research conducted in this thesis is an initial attempt to identify the costs associated with occupational exposure assessments within the Air Force. Using cost estimation methodologies, a cost model was created to predict the total costs of occupational hazard assessments focused on air sampling. Data was gathered from bioenvironmental engineering databases and subject matter experts for analysis. The data required extensive curation before running a mixed step-wise regression. The major cost drivers for occupational exposure assessments were identified as the sample time and pre-calibration time for conducting an air sample. The average predicted cost was $183.47 with 80% of …

Analysis Of Influences Of Separation Decisions In The Financial Management Career Field, Shauna Young

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to analyze influences on separation decisions of active duty Air Force financial management officers. Researchers tested nine variables to determine their separation implications. The tested variables were major command, age, prior enlisted service, spouse, commissioning source, AFIT cost analysis master’s degrees, engagement, crystallization of job alternatives, and exhaustion. Results proved that age, prior enlisted service, having a spouse, and being an Air Force Academy or AFIT graduate correlates to whether a financial management officer will separate from the Air Force. In addition, the engagement level or having a defined list of job alternatives readily …

Water Security Issues Affecting Migration And Conflict In The Middle East, Richard E. Mard

Theses and Dissertations

Iran is facing a daunting reality regarding the future of their water resources which may result in conflict and migration within the country with the potential to affect the Middle East and North African region and beyond. The country has failed to address critical preservation, risk mitigation, infrastructural, and political efforts to accommodate their rising population due to economic expansion. Water resources are dependent on social, political, economic, and environmental variables related to conflict and migration. Given the recent examples of water security issues in Syria resulting in migration and conflict, this thesis investigates the total available water per capita …

Predicting Global Disposition Of U.S. Military Personnel Via Open-Source, Unclassified Means, Matthew T. Small

Theses and Dissertations

The Joint Distribution Processing Analysis Center (JDPAC) of the United States Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM) regularly forecasts the demand of USTRANSCOM assets required by geographic and combatant commanders. These demands are subject to fluctuations due to unforeseen circumstances such as war, conflict, natural disasters, and other calamities requiring the presence of military personnel. This study evaluates the use of exponential state space smoothing, ARIMA, and Regression with ARIMA errors models to forecast the number of military personnel expected in each country, for a test set of countries of interest to USTRANSCOM and which manifest a high degree of variability in the …

A Study Of Collaboration Between The Defense Logistics Agency And The U.S. Agency For International Development In The Conduct Of Humanitarian Operations, Jessica M. Thomas

Theses and Dissertations

Many organizations are finding it advantageous and often necessary to form collaborative alliances with strategic partners in order to solve collective problems and jointly work towards mutually desirable ends. This research examines a single case study of inter-agency coordination between the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and their involvement in humanitarian relief efforts. Pursuit of advancement through two collaboration models provided the framework of the research and contributed to the analysis of data. Resulting outcomes offer incentives for both organizations to develop stronger social networks assisting in a deeper understanding of the others …

Improving Decision Support Through Storytelling, Tarah E. Cotton

Theses and Dissertations

The role of decision support has emerged in the Air Force, Department of Defense, and in the civilian sector. With information being more accessible than ever before, the ability to analyze, interpret, and communicate information effectively and efficiently has become essential. While extensive resources are expended on growing the strength of decision support and analytical capability, the skills involved in presenting the data to decision makers is under-developed. Now more than ever, decision makers are being tasked with making huge decisions in short periods of time. With a shrinking workforce and greater reliance on automated systems, decision makers must use …

Optimization Of Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Architectures Using Parallel Computation, Michael S. Felten

Theses and Dissertations

Improving Space Situational Awareness (SSA) remains one of the DoD’s top priorities. Current research at the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) has shown that modeling and simulation of Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) SSA architectures can identify optimal combinations of ground and space-based sensors. This thesis extends previous research by expanding design boundaries and refining the methodology. A genetic algorithm examined this increased trade space containing 1022 possible architectures. Experimental trials that would have taken over 100 years on a desktop computer were completed in weeks using a high-performance computer containing over 125,000 cores. The results of the optimizer clearly …

An Analysis Of Stability Properties In Operating And Support Costs, Scott C. Hewitson

Theses and Dissertations

Accurately predicting Operating and Support (O&S) costs is vital in the current climate of budgetary constraints. However, there is an overall lack of research in the realm of O&S which hinders cost estimator’s abilities to provide accurate sustainment estimates. This research determines when Air Force Aircraft O&S costs stabilize and to what degree. Stability is examined in three areas: total O&S costs, the six O&S cost element structures, and aircraft type. Stability results vary by category but generally is found to occur 80% of the time at approximately five years from Initial Operating Capability (IOC). The second portion of this …

Requirements For Air Force Cost Analysis, Chase M. Houser

Theses and Dissertations

This research effort intends on identifying the knowledge, skills, abilities necessary for cost analysts to be effective decision support members. The purpose of this research is to determine what levels of education, training, and knowledge are needed by cost analysts in the current career field and in the foreseeable future. It also assesses whether cost analysts associate the levels of knowledge, skills, and abilities as requirements in fulfilling cost analyst duties. From this analysis, a suggested undergraduate education, master’s degree program, and certifications were created for current and future cost analysts to strive to achieve. To accomplish this objective, personal …

Predicting Agency Contributions For The Federal Employment Retirement System (Fers) Fund, Raymond L. Mims Ii

Theses and Dissertations

The Federal Employment Retirement System is a pension fund for federal employees and is managed by the United States Office of Personnel and Management (OPM). Each year OPM publishes an annual Civil Service Retirement and Disabilities Fund (CSRDF) report that provides information on the health of the fund. The report contains historical cash flows from income provided by contributions to the fund from employees, agencies, and the U.S. Treasury. Additionally, the report shows actuarial valuations of the total liabilities owed to all current employees and annuitants. The actuaries at OPM use their estimates to provide projections needed to maintain the …

Air Force Officer Attrition: An Ecconometric Analysis, Jacob T. Elliot

Theses and Dissertations

Many organizations are concerned, and struggle, with personnel management. Training personnel is expensive, so there is a high emphasis on understanding why and anticipating when individuals leave an organization. The military is no exception. Moreover, the military is strictly hierarchical and must grow all its leaders, making retention all the more vital. Intuition holds that there is a relationship between the economic environment and personnel attrition rates in the military (e.g. when the economy is bad, attrition is low). This study investigates that relationship in a more formal manner. Specifically, this study conducts an econometric analysis of U.S. Air Force …

How A Conducive Environment And Susceptible Followers Influence Toxic Leadership Behaviors In The Air Force: An Examination Of The Toxic Triangle Theory, Rachel S. Beightel

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this thesis was to determine what characteristics of the Air Force’s environment and Airmen perpetuate toxic leadership behaviors. This survey study was designed, using the toxic triangle theory, to evaluate the toxic leadership behaviors, susceptible follower traits, and conducive environment characteristics participants have experienced in the Air Force. The study applied ordinary least squares path analysis to determine the influence susceptible followers and characteristics of a conducive environment have on toxic leadership behaviors in the Air Force. Results revealed that collusive followers have a direct influence on toxic leadership. While only two characteristics of a conducive environment …

The Africa First Initiative And Local Procurement, Rachel E. Herald

Theses and Dissertations

The strategic importance of Africa to the United States has grown significantly. Camp Lemonnier, a naval-led military installation, is located in Djibouti and is vital to the strategic success of the United States in Africa. In order to strengthen U.S.-Djibouti ties and solidify an enduring presence in Africa, the Department of Defense implemented the Djibouti First Initiative. Under the initiative, local vendors received preference for resources and products needed at Camp Lemonnier. In 2017, the Fiscal Year 2017 National Defense Authorization Act replaced the Djibouti First Initiative with Africa First. The new policy extends the authority to limit competition and …

Cultivating Agile Organizational Culture: Addressing Resistance To Change In Bureaucratic Government Organizations, Michael P. Mclane

Theses and Dissertations

Resistance to change is a phenomenon that affects organizations almost universally. All organizations large and small are continuously challenged to adjust, evolve and innovate to gain or maintain competitive advantage and mission effectiveness. Alarmingly high failure rates are reported: 30-70% of change initiatives falling short of their prescribed intent or never attain the desired results. This research investigates how bureaucratic governmental organizations can address this truth, and how leadership can cultivate a flexible, agile culture that is more adaptable to the demands of constant change. This study uses case study methodology and qualitative research methods aid in the understanding of …

Air Force Installation Contracting Agency Strategic Sourcing And Category Management Through Expenditure Profiling, James T. Okamoto

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examines an approach to characterizing various expenditure profiles for the Air Force Installation Contracting Agency’s Operations and Maintenance Appropriated Funds. Using naive, seasonal naive, trailing moving average, exponential smoothing, linear regression, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting methods, the paper evaluates multiple error measures over one fiscal year to find the most precise model for each level of analysis. Levels of analysis included the Air Force enterprise and level 1 category levels, as well as an illustrative approach to Information and Technology spend at the level 2 subcategory, major command, and base levels. Optimal model characteristics were …

Forecasting Country Conflict Within Modified Combatant Command Regions Using Statistical Learning Methods, Sarah Neumann

Theses and Dissertations

Conflict forecasts are crucial to Combatant Commanders’ understanding of the dynamic environment encompassing countries within their area of responsibility. The current structure of the Combatant Commands (COCOMs) is rooted in geography by grouping nations in geographic proximity to the same regional command. However, leaders today question the effectiveness of the current structure. A novel modified k-means clustering algorithm is developed and implemented that groups countries based on data similarities and geographic proximity resulting in new COCOM groupings that improve conflict forecasts. The data spans various political, military, economic, and social characteristics of countries, and is used to develop conditional logistic …

An Analysis Of Aircraft Operating And Support Cost Element Structures, Garrett B. O'Hanlon

Theses and Dissertations

As the cost of DoD Weapon Systems continue to increase, the ability to more accurately predict the Operating and Support (O&S) costs for the various weapon systems has become more vital for long run affordability. The investigation into the O&S arena has been overshadowed by the research and development (R&D) and acquisition fields. This research focuses on the O&S portion of the total life cycle costs, specifically the OSD-CAPE Cost Element Structure (CES) elements and sub-elements. The research investigates seven categories of 52 aircrafts and their cost expenditures within the CES from the years 1996-2016. The first portion of the …