Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Reanalysis Data Underestimate Significant Changes In Growing Season Weather In Kazakhstan, C. K. Wright, K. M. De Beurs, Z. K. Akhmadiyeva, P. Y. Groisman, G. M. Henebry

Natural Resource Management Faculty Publications

We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000–2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p < 0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

Dual Scale Trend Analysis Distinguishes Climatic From Anthropogenic Effects On The Vegetated Land Surface, K. M. De Beurs, C. K. Wright, G. M. Henebry

Natural Resource Management Faculty Publications

We present a dual scale trend analysis for characterizing and comparing two contrasting areas of change in Russia and Kazakhstan that lie less than 800 km apart. We selected a global NASA MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) product (MCD43C4 and MCD43A4) at a 0.05◦ (∼5.6 km) and 500 m spatial resolution and a 16-day temporal resolution from 2000 to 2008. We applied a refinement of the seasonal Kendall trend method to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) image series at both scales. We only incorporated composites during the vegetative growing season which was delineated by start of season and end …

Slides: Rethinking Western Water Law: Restoring The Public Interest In Western Water Law, Mark Squillace

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Mark Squillace, Director, Natural Resources Law Center, University of Colorado Law School

20 slides

Slides: Economic Incentives For Demand Reduction, Christopher Goemans

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Christopher Goemans, Department of Agriculture & Resource Economics, Colorado State University

17 slides

Slides: Delta Overview, Leo Winternitz

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Leo Winternitz, The Nature Conservancy, California Water Program, Sacramento, CA

17 slides

Agenda: Western Water Law, Policy And Management: Ripples, Currents, And New Channels For Inquiry, University Of Colorado Boulder. Natural Resources Law Center, Western Water Policy Program

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

In many pockets of the American West, stresses and demands on water resources are overwhelming our capacity to effectively manage change and accommodate the diversity of interests and values associated with our limited water resources.

This event will offer an opportunity for lawyers, policymakers, and water professionals to engage the experts on the challenges and emerging solutions to the most pressing water policy and management issues of the day.

Slides: Unquenchable, Robert Glennon

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Robert Glennon, Morris K. Udall Professor of Law and Public Policy, James E. Rogers College of Law, University of Arizona

56 slides

Slides: Finding Flows: Fish Still Need Water Everyday, Melinda Kassen

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Melinda Kassen, Director of the Western Water Project, Trout Unlimited

12 slides

Slides: Climate Change And The Death Of Stationarity: A New Era For Western Water?, Stephen T. Gray

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Steven T. Gray, Wyoming State Climatologist, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY

48 slides

Slides: Groundwater Declines, Climate Change And Approaches To Adaptation, Katharine Jacobs

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Katharine Jacobs, Director of the Arizona Water Institute, University of Arizona

37 slides

The Impact Of Weather Extremes On Agricultural Production Methods: Does Drought Increase Adoption Of Conservation Tillage Practices?, Ya Ding, Karina Schoengold, Tsegaye Tadesse

Department of Agricultural Economics: Faculty Publications

One benefit of conservation tillage practices is an increase in soil moisture. The paper combines panel data techniques with spatial analysis to measure the impact of extreme weather events on the adoption of conservation tillage. Zellner’s SUR technique is extended to spatial panel data to correct for cross-sectional heterogeneity, spatial autocorrelation, and contemporaneous correlation. Panel data allows the identification of differences in adoption rates as a function of the severity of past drought or flood events. The adoption of no-till, alternative conservation tillage, and reduced till are estimated relative to conventional tillage. Extremely dry conditions in recent years are found …